Plus-or-minus two frames, in which Zapruder frame, be it hypothetical (i.e., before Z-133) or actual (i.e., Z-133-on) do you think the first shot was fired?
I can only tell you what the evidence says. The evidence is that JFK reacted visibly to the first shot by moving left and/or clutching at his upper chest, and/or slumping, and /or assuming a blank look..
According to Phil Willis was an instant before he took his photo which was at z202. According to Croft it was after his z161 photo. Croft said he has m d enough time to wind his camera and click the shutter again at the moment of the smfirst shot. According to Hugh Betzner it was just after he took his z186 photo. According to the occupants of the VP car I they had just completed the turn onto Elm. It is still turning when last seen at z181. According to Mary Woodward it was just after the President passed by where she was standing (3 feet past the lamppost near the Thornton Freeway sign).
So, if one puts that altogether, and it is all consistent, the first shot was somewhere between z186 and z202. It may be around z193 based on the change in JFK that appears to begin there.
