So, without any evidence for it, you are basically accusing Frazier of purposely outright lying about the size and nature of the bag....
That's a far cry from saying that Frazier wasn't paying attention and was simply mistaken.... but if that's the way you want to go....
I do not know if Mr. Frazier was lying about the bag. I see no reason to believe he was lying. More likely, he was honestly mistaken. The threats the police made to him, of charging him with being an accessory to a murder, very likely would influence him into believing that the bag he saw Oswald with could not have contained the rifle.
If this is true, Frazier is in the clear and it would be natural for him to fall into this belief.
Btw, for what it's worth, Lt Day clearly believed him, because on 11/29/63 Day was still developing his flawed theory that Oswald could have used the flimsy bag to conceal the heavy bag in which he carried the rifle....
A theory that pretty well falls apart with the failure to find the ?outer? bag. Did Oswald eat the outer bag?
So, Frazier convinced himself that his lies are actually true, thus beating the polygraph.... Is that what you are saying?
Under the best of conditions, the polygraph is not the most reliable way of telling the truth. Courts have found it to be not reliable. Hence, the results of polygraph tests are not allowed in court cases in most states in the country. While fingerprint evidence, which has with proven much more reliable, are allowed in all 50 states.
But if a polygraph test is reliable, it would be on questions the subject knows the answer to. ?Did you murder your wife?. ?Did you steal that man?s wallet?.
In Frazier?s case, his fears and hopes may very well of convinced him that the bag he saw was too short to hold a rifle, too flimsy to hold that rifle and that the bag the police was showing him was not the bag he saw Oswald with earlier in the day. It?s possible Frazier was lying. But it?s also possible he was being honest and thought he was telling the truth. If this is true, naturally we might expect him to pass a polygraph test that the bag he saw earlier was not the same bag the police showed him.
If a subject believes a falsehood, and he is questioned while being polygraphed about this falsehood, naturally the polygraph test will indicate that this statement is true. If a Scientific Creationist is questioned whether Theory of Evolution is true or not, the polygraph test will indicate that it is false. If a Holocaust Denier is question whether Holocaust really occurred or not, the polygraph test will indicate that it did not. Hence, we cannot conclude that the bag Oswald was carrying could not have contained a rifle because of a polygraph test.
In conclusion, I don?t know if Frazier was lying about the bag. I see no reason to believe he was lying, even if the bag presented to him was the same one he saw Oswald carrying. I see no reason not to give Mr. Frazier the benefit of the doubt. I believe that Mr. Frazier was probably honestly mistaken. His mistakes likely originated with the threats the police made to him.
The first question to be answered of course is; when exactly did Frazier give and sign the affidavit? Was it prior to him being polygraphed or after it?
Since when is it police procedure to let a potential suspect first give an affidavit and only then, maybe for the fun of it, apply pressure on him by having him polygraphed?
Secondly, the affidavit clearly shows that Frazier must have been questioned about the events of the day, including the bag, by then, but there is nothing in the affidavit that would suggest that he was made aware why the police was so interested in that bag. It's not normal procedure for police to volunteer information to potential suspects, is it?
I don?t know what police procedures were back then. I imagine it varied from office to office. Some police might use a polygraph test. Others might not. Let alone a standard procedure on the order affidavits are signed and polygraph tests are given. If they get a confession after the polygraph test, they can always have the subject sign a different affidavit.