The shot sequence, bang......bang......bang?

[John Iacoletti]

But we do have a time machine, of sorts. It is the Zapruder film. We can observe it over and over again. We can see the movements of Rosemary Willis, Connally and JFK.

Agreed (assuming the film is authentic).  But it's your interpretation of their movements that is subjective and biased.

[Gary Craig]

Good post.

And if a witness has a false memory, it can appear as real and vivid in his mind as an actual memory. Memories are mental reconstructions that can be honesty skewered by impressions, biases, perceptions, distractions, etc.

People may best remember salient items ("I saw the President and Jackie") but be weak--though "real" in their minds--on secondary events ("the limousine stopped"). Problem could be that in an investigation, the salient facts ("the President and Jackie travel on Elm in Dallas") are established easily while the secondary events (the ones more likely to be mis-recalled) take on a new importance.

"Memories are mental reconstructions that can be honesty skewered by impressions, biases, perceptions, distractions, etc."

Like the DA or Chief of Police on local media claiming the case is cinched and Oswald is guilty etc.
Many changed their minds of where the shots came from.
Seems their memories got better the farther away from the event they got.

[Jack Nessan]

The witness list is all very interesting but is lacking a large number of eyewitnesses and what their very first statements contained. None of these posts even remotely relate to proving the belief there was an early missed shot. The actions of a child running past a woman stepping up on the curb with her cane/umbrella sticking out is somehow being presented as evidence of a shot that no adults standing along Elm Street including her parents stated ever happened.

Maybe the psychology question that needs to be answered is what would influence the belief that such an absurd theory as an early shot not heard by anyone is the answer to the shot sequence of the assassination which does not fit the cycle time of the carcano and what is seen on the Zapruder film? Attempting to discredit the numerous eyewitnesses as having faulty recollections is actually beyond belief and shows how weak and ridiculous the whole early missed shot theory really is.

The most over riding theme in Psychology seems to be  the mind of a single person. Extrapolating their observations and making a blanket statement that all the witnesses were effected in the exact same way is contrary to what these different Psychologists propose.

The idea there was influence concerning the statements of the witnesses was first proposed by the WC and concerned the number of shots reported by the witnesses who first reported there was two shots then changed there statements to stating there was three. The Media is the only medium that reaches the eyewitnesses en mass and is mentioned by both the WC and HSCA as having influenced the statements of the witnesses, but is only referenced as a source of influence concerning the number of shots from two to three.

[Ray Mitcham]

Yeah, I would say the witness pool was corrupted as the conspiracy kooks "got to" them.

Which "conspiracy kooks" would these be, then Jerry?

[Walt Cakebread]

"Memories are mental reconstructions that can be honesty skewered by impressions, biases, perceptions, distractions, etc."

Like the DA or Chief of Police on local media claiming the case is cinched and Oswald is guilty etc.
Many changed their minds of where the shots came from.
Seems their memories got better the farther away from the event they got.

On SaPersonay Morning Curry is asked about the rifle being disassembled when it was smuggled into the TSBD.....

At the 10:33 point Curry says that he doesn't believe the rifle was disassembled because the package was large enough to contain the assembled rifle......

[John Anderson]

I struggled with the early missed shot. To miss the car entirely and also miss the spectators seems like a huge stretch especially if it was early and pretty close range. As a former Infantry soldier it had me really curious so I looked at it hard for a long time.

Connolly's statement works for an early missed shot as does Jackie Kennedy's and Nellie Connolly (sort of). Also Robert croft who took a photo prior to any shots. There are others I don't remember who. At least one claims to have seen something hit the road.

The car occupants testimonies matched with their movements in the Z film, together with Robert croft's statement would make the shot somewhere in the z150's in the Z film.

So realising it was maybe might be kinda possible left the question...how the hell could he miss??? Beats me. Maybe he was nervous and had an accidental discharge across the city who knows. Maybe there's a bullet hole somewhere in the 6th floor or he hit the tree. Who knows. Maybe the scope was way way off. It would have to be really off to miss the whole car at that range.

Someone who armour plated the limo after the assassination said there was a hole somewhere in the floor pan of the car, only visible with the seats and carpets removed. He didn't photograph it though so no corroborating support and it seems it was never investigated. Missed shot? Who knows.

Based on all that pondering and I wouldn't bet my life on it, but It does seem to me the first shot was early in the Z150's and he missed by a country mile for reasons unknown. Took me a while to come to it because I didn't want to believe it somehow but that's where I'm at. Oswald had that rifle lying around and being transported about in cars with luggage and furniture. Who knows if he ever even zeroed it. Seems unlikely to me he wouldn't but again who knows.

[Joe Elliott]

The witness list is all very interesting but is lacking a large number of eyewitnesses and what their very first statements contained. None of these posts even remotely relate to proving the belief there was an early missed shot. The actions of a child running past a woman stepping up on the curb with her cane/umbrella sticking out is somehow being presented as evidence of a shot that no adults standing along Elm Street including her parents stated ever happened.

Maybe the psychology question that needs to be answered is what would influence the belief that such an absurd theory as an early shot not heard by anyone is the answer to the shot sequence of the assassination which does not fit the cycle time of the carcano and what is seen on the Zapruder film? Attempting to discredit the numerous eyewitnesses as having faulty recollections is actually beyond belief and shows how weak and ridiculous the whole early missed shot theory really is.

. . .

It is not true that ?No one? heard an early first shot.

Governor Connally, in his testimony to the Warren Commission, said he heard an early shot. He turned to his right but could not spot a shooter. He started to turn to his left and while doing so he felt a bullet hit him, the second shot.

And Governor Connally?s memory is backed up by the Zapruder film. During the z160?s he suddenly turns to his right. He then starts to turn back to the left and appears to have been hit in the z220?s. Governor Connally is certainly an early shot witness. It is simply false to keep repeating the CT mantra ?No one heard an early first shot?.

What do we have to back up an early first shot miss?

1.   Governor Connally?s testimony, which is supported by the Zapruder film.

2.   One of the seven strongest Zapruder camera jiggles, before z318. Four of the strong camera jiggles are associated with the limousine passing being the sign. Tests have shown that a subject passing behind another object will cause someone to jiggle the camera as if they just heard a loud noise. The three ?non-sign? jiggles correspond to z153, z222 and z312.

3.   President Kennedy also turns to his right, although, of course, we have no testimony, during the z160?s.

4.   Rosemary Willis, who was trotting along, starts to slow down in the z160?s and comes to a stop by the z190?s, staring back in the general direction of the TSBD.


My conclusions:

This is not real definite proof of a shot at z153. But I think it is fairly compelling evidence for a shot at z153. One piece of evidence by itself, like Rosemary stopping, is not compelling at all. But of them together is. I would put the probability of a shot at z152-z154 at 80%. And a shot at z221-z223 at 98%. And a shot at z312 at 100%.

Getting a strong camera jiggle, right before Governor Connally starts his turn to the right, would be a hell of a coincidence.


Now, I do break my general rule. Do not rely on an eyewitness, like Governor Connally. But the Zapruder film, nor no other physical evidence, provides definitive information on when the first shot occurred. All we have is eyewitness testimony and the clues offered by the Zapruder film.


Governor Connally was not as distracted as your typical witness. He was not thinking ?Oh my God, I?m seeing JFK and Jackie. This is so exciting.? He had been travelling with them for some time. The actions he describes him doing are backed up by the Zapruder film. So, it appears he heard a shot, or thought he heard a shot, and turned to look back and to his right starting in the z160?s.

[Joe Elliott]

I struggled with the early missed shot. To miss the car entirely and also miss the spectators seems like a huge stretch especially if it was early and pretty close range. As a former Infantry soldier it had me really curious so I looked at it hard for a long time.

Connolly's statement works for an early missed shot as does Jackie Kennedy's and Nellie Connolly (sort of). Also Robert croft who took a photo prior to any shots. There are others I don't remember who. At least one claims to have seen something hit the road.

The car occupants testimonies matched with their movements in the Z film, together with Robert croft's statement would make the shot somewhere in the z150's in the Z film.

So realising it was maybe might be kinda possible left the question...how the hell could he miss??? Beats me. Maybe he was nervous and had an accidental discharge across the city who knows. Maybe there's a bullet hole somewhere in the 6th floor or he hit the tree. Who knows. Maybe the scope was way way off. It would have to be really off to miss the whole car at that range.

Someone who armour plated the limo after the assassination said there was a hole somewhere in the floor pan of the car, only visible with the seats and carpets removed. He didn't photograph it though so no corroborating support and it seems it was never investigated. Missed shot? Who knows.

Based on all that pondering and I wouldn't bet my life on it, but It does seem to me the first shot was early in the Z150's and he missed by a country mile for reasons unknown. Took me a while to come to it because I didn't want to believe it somehow but that's where I'm at. Oswald had that rifle lying around and being transported about in cars with luggage and furniture. Who knows if he ever even zeroed it. Seems unlikely to me he wouldn't but again who knows.

I have calculated, from the angles and the estimated speed of the limousine, as I have estimated from the Zapruder film, that the angular speed of the ?target? was:




first  shot: z 153 shot - 3.7  degrees per second - miss 60+ inches

second shot: z 222 shot - 1.8  degrees per second - miss  8  inches

third  shot: z 312 shot - 0.55 degrees per second ? miss  2  inches




I think this provides a possible explanation of why the first shot would miss by so much. Oswald was trained to hit stationary targets at 200, 300 and 500 yards, using the iron sights. But not at moving targets.

There must come a point, for a shooter trained to shoot at stationary targets, when aiming at a moving target, where the angular speed becomes too great for him to handle. At 1 degree per second. Or maybe 2 degrees per second. Or 10 degrees per second. At some point, the aiming must get off, even wildly off.

It may be that anything over 1 degree per second causes some problems and anything over 3 degrees per second can cause a wild miss. I don?t know. I have not fired rifles. But it does sound plausible.