The shot sequence, bang......bang......bang?

[Jerry Organ]

The witness list is all very interesting but is lacking a large number of eyewitnesses and what their very first statements contained. None of these posts even remotely relate to proving the belief there was an early missed shot. The actions of a child running past a woman stepping up on the curb with her cane/umbrella sticking out is somehow being presented as evidence of a shot that no adults standing along Elm Street including her parents stated ever happened.

Well, I didn't present Rosemary Willis's running/stopping in isolation like that, like it alone was the only reason for a early missed shot. But if one does isolate it, I suppose it makes it seem less reliable.

I don't know for sure why Rosemary in particular decided to slow and ultimately stop, other than she once said it was in response to hearing the first shot.

And was the woman banishing a cane or umbrella with her right hand as she steps backwards? Or were both her arms simply wearing dark gloves?




There seems to be a closed umbrella shape dangling from the woman's left arm, but it's not in the path of the girl running.

Maybe the psychology question that needs to be answered is what would influence the belief that such an absurd theory as an early shot not heard by anyone is the answer to the shot sequence of the assassination which does not fit the cycle time of the carcano and what is seen on the Zapruder film?

I guess one of the ways to get "an early shot not heard by anyone" is to isolate Rosemary Willis, and then proclaim her account is suspect because of some long object supposedly in her path.

One of Rosemary's parents, her father Phil, did testify that the first shot caused Mrs. Kennedy to turn from his side of the street to the opposite side. She does this beginning in the low-Z170s.

    "In slide No. 4 he was looking pretty much toward--straight ahead,
     and she was looking more to the left, which would be my side of
     the street. Then when the first shot was fired, she turned to the
     right toward him and he more or less slumped forward, and it
     caused me to wonder if he were hit, although I couldn?t say."

Willis 04 was taken about Z133.

[Walt Cakebread]

"Memories are mental reconstructions that can be honesty skewered by impressions, biases, perceptions, distractions, etc."

Like the DA or Chief of Police on local media claiming the case is cinched and Oswald is guilty etc.
Many changed their minds of where the shots came from.
Seems their memories got better the farther away from the event they got.

On Saturday Morning Curry is asked about the rifle being disassembled when it was smuggled into the TSBD.....

At the 10:33 point Curry says that he doesn't believe the rifle was disassembled because the package was large enough to contain the assembled rifle......

[John Anderson]

I struggled with the early missed shot. To miss the car entirely and also miss the spectators seems like a huge stretch especially if it was early and pretty close range. As a former Infantry soldier it had me really curious so I looked at it hard for a long time.

Connolly's statement works for an early missed shot as does Jackie Kennedy's and Nellie Connolly (sort of). Also Robert croft who took a photo prior to any shots. There are others I don't remember who. At least one claims to have seen something hit the road.

The car occupants testimonies matched with their movements in the Z film, together with Robert croft's statement would make the shot somewhere in the z150's in the Z film.

So realising it was maybe might be kinda possible left the question...how the hell could he miss??? Beats me. Maybe he was nervous and had an accidental discharge across the city who knows. Maybe there's a bullet hole somewhere in the 6th floor or he hit the tree. Who knows. Maybe the scope was way way off. It would have to be really off to miss the whole car at that range.

Someone who armour plated the limo after the assassination said there was a hole somewhere in the floor pan of the car, only visible with the seats and carpets removed. He didn't photograph it though so no corroborating support and it seems it was never investigated. Missed shot? Who knows.

Based on all that pondering and I wouldn't bet my life on it, but It does seem to me the first shot was early in the Z150's and he missed by a country mile for reasons unknown. Took me a while to come to it because I didn't want to believe it somehow but that's where I'm at. Oswald had that rifle lying around and being transported about in cars with luggage and furniture. Who knows if he ever even zeroed it. Seems unlikely to me he wouldn't but again who knows.

[Joe Elliott]

The witness list is all very interesting but is lacking a large number of eyewitnesses and what their very first statements contained. None of these posts even remotely relate to proving the belief there was an early missed shot. The actions of a child running past a woman stepping up on the curb with her cane/umbrella sticking out is somehow being presented as evidence of a shot that no adults standing along Elm Street including her parents stated ever happened.

Maybe the psychology question that needs to be answered is what would influence the belief that such an absurd theory as an early shot not heard by anyone is the answer to the shot sequence of the assassination which does not fit the cycle time of the carcano and what is seen on the Zapruder film? Attempting to discredit the numerous eyewitnesses as having faulty recollections is actually beyond belief and shows how weak and ridiculous the whole early missed shot theory really is.

. . .

It is not true that ?No one? heard an early first shot.

Governor Connally, in his testimony to the Warren Commission, said he heard an early shot. He turned to his right but could not spot a shooter. He started to turn to his left and while doing so he felt a bullet hit him, the second shot.

And Governor Connally?s memory is backed up by the Zapruder film. During the z160?s he suddenly turns to his right. He then starts to turn back to the left and appears to have been hit in the z220?s. Governor Connally is certainly an early shot witness. It is simply false to keep repeating the CT mantra ?No one heard an early first shot?.

What do we have to back up an early first shot miss?

1.   Governor Connally?s testimony, which is supported by the Zapruder film.

2.   One of the seven strongest Zapruder camera jiggles, before z318. Four of the strong camera jiggles are associated with the limousine passing being the sign. Tests have shown that a subject passing behind another object will cause someone to jiggle the camera as if they just heard a loud noise. The three ?non-sign? jiggles correspond to z153, z222 and z312.

3.   President Kennedy also turns to his right, although, of course, we have no testimony, during the z160?s.

4.   Rosemary Willis, who was trotting along, starts to slow down in the z160?s and comes to a stop by the z190?s, staring back in the general direction of the TSBD.


My conclusions:

This is not real definite proof of a shot at z153. But I think it is fairly compelling evidence for a shot at z153. One piece of evidence by itself, like Rosemary stopping, is not compelling at all. But of them together is. I would put the probability of a shot at z152-z154 at 80%. And a shot at z221-z223 at 98%. And a shot at z312 at 100%.

Getting a strong camera jiggle, right before Governor Connally starts his turn to the right, would be a hell of a coincidence.


Now, I do break my general rule. Do not rely on an eyewitness, like Governor Connally. But the Zapruder film, nor no other physical evidence, provides definitive information on when the first shot occurred. All we have is eyewitness testimony and the clues offered by the Zapruder film.


Governor Connally was not as distracted as your typical witness. He was not thinking ?Oh my God, I?m seeing JFK and Jackie. This is so exciting.? He had been travelling with them for some time. The actions he describes him doing are backed up by the Zapruder film. So, it appears he heard a shot, or thought he heard a shot, and turned to look back and to his right starting in the z160?s.

[Joe Elliott]

I struggled with the early missed shot. To miss the car entirely and also miss the spectators seems like a huge stretch especially if it was early and pretty close range. As a former Infantry soldier it had me really curious so I looked at it hard for a long time.

Connolly's statement works for an early missed shot as does Jackie Kennedy's and Nellie Connolly (sort of). Also Robert croft who took a photo prior to any shots. There are others I don't remember who. At least one claims to have seen something hit the road.

The car occupants testimonies matched with their movements in the Z film, together with Robert croft's statement would make the shot somewhere in the z150's in the Z film.

So realising it was maybe might be kinda possible left the question...how the hell could he miss??? Beats me. Maybe he was nervous and had an accidental discharge across the city who knows. Maybe there's a bullet hole somewhere in the 6th floor or he hit the tree. Who knows. Maybe the scope was way way off. It would have to be really off to miss the whole car at that range.

Someone who armour plated the limo after the assassination said there was a hole somewhere in the floor pan of the car, only visible with the seats and carpets removed. He didn't photograph it though so no corroborating support and it seems it was never investigated. Missed shot? Who knows.

Based on all that pondering and I wouldn't bet my life on it, but It does seem to me the first shot was early in the Z150's and he missed by a country mile for reasons unknown. Took me a while to come to it because I didn't want to believe it somehow but that's where I'm at. Oswald had that rifle lying around and being transported about in cars with luggage and furniture. Who knows if he ever even zeroed it. Seems unlikely to me he wouldn't but again who knows.

I have calculated, from the angles and the estimated speed of the limousine, as I have estimated from the Zapruder film, that the angular speed of the ?target? was:




first  shot: z 153 shot - 3.7  degrees per second - miss 60+ inches

second shot: z 222 shot - 1.8  degrees per second - miss  8  inches

third  shot: z 312 shot - 0.55 degrees per second ? miss  2  inches




I think this provides a possible explanation of why the first shot would miss by so much. Oswald was trained to hit stationary targets at 200, 300 and 500 yards, using the iron sights. But not at moving targets.

There must come a point, for a shooter trained to shoot at stationary targets, when aiming at a moving target, where the angular speed becomes too great for him to handle. At 1 degree per second. Or maybe 2 degrees per second. Or 10 degrees per second. At some point, the aiming must get off, even wildly off.

It may be that anything over 1 degree per second causes some problems and anything over 3 degrees per second can cause a wild miss. I don?t know. I have not fired rifles. But it does sound plausible.

[Pat Speer]

A couple of points, John.

Connally studied the Z-film for the WC, and told them he thought the first shot hit Kennedy around Z-190. A few weeks later, he spoke to newsman Eddie Barker. Here are his statements regarding the first shot:
"(6-22-64 interview on television station KRLD, most of which was re-broadcast on CBS 9-27-64) ?just as we turned, down by the courthouse, Nelly turned around and said to the President--she was so impressed by the warmth of the reception-- she turned around and said to the President, ?Well, Mr. President, you can?t say that Dallas doesn?t love you, too? and he said ?No I think that?s apparent? and or words to that effect... The crowds began to thin, but we were only about 5 minutes from the Trade Mart where the luncheon was to be held. Uh?so?we all more or less straightened up?uh, in the car ?uh, I did I know and maybe I should explain that a little bit by sayin? when you sit for a prolonged period of time as we were, facing one direction acknowledging the crowd why, when you get an opportunity where the crowd thins you kind of shift in the chair and straighten up. We had just done that. I had and I heard this shot and I say shot because I immediately thought it was a shot."

This brings me to Robert Croft. Croft's famous photo was taken at Z-160. He never said anything to indicate this photo was taken after the first shot. He made a point, however, of stating that his fourth and final photo (which didn't come out) was taken simultaneously with the fatal shot. This suggests, then, that he would have said something if his third photo was taken less than a half second after the first shot. And yet he said nothing. Near him, moreover, were two other photographers, Betzner and Willis. Betzner's photo was taken at Z-186. He said the first shot came just after. And Willis' photo was taken at Z-202. He said the first shot led him to click the camera. This is one of the many reasons some believe the first shot was fired circa Z-190.

[Jack Nessan]

Joe Elliot

?It is not true that ?No one? heard an early first shot.?


You would think there would be someone but it seems to be unanimous. Surprised me too.



What do we have to back up an early first shot miss?



1.   Governor Connally?s testimony, which is supported by the Zapruder film.



JBC 11/27/63 Parkland Hospital--- First statement made by JBC was the interview in the Parkland Hospital. JBC clearly states JFK was struck by the first shot which is exactly what Nelly, Jackie, Hill, and all the other eyewitnesses stated. His WC statement is completely opposite which leads you to question whether JBC really remembers exactly what happened. JBC goes from turning left and seeing JFK slump in the Parkland Hospital interview to turning right and not seeing JFK at all in the WC Testimony.


JBC: ?And then we had just turned the corner [from Houston onto Elm], we heard a shot; I turned to my left

I was sitting in the jump seat. I turned to my left to look in the back seat ? the president had slumped. He had said nothing. Almost simultaneously, as I turned, I was hit and I knew I had been hit badly.?

JBC always stated he only heard two shots. He never thought he was struck by the same bullet as JFK which is what Nelly and Jackie referenced in JBC crying out OH No No No, and Bill Newman and Bobbi Hargis both observed by JBC?s reactions to the first shot.

=============================================================

JBC states where he was at on Elm Street when asked by Specter what he saw after he heard the first shot. The only child in the vicinity of the first shot was The Chisms 3 year old son which correlates to what the Chisms stated that the first shot was fired right before the limousine was in front of them.

Mr. SPECTER. When you turned to your right. Governor Connally, immediately after you heard the first shot. what did you see on that occasion?
Governor CONNALLY. Nothing of any significance except just people out on the grass slope. I didn't see anything that was out of the ordinary, just saw men, women, and children.

Chism:

?I am married and have three children. I was standing with my wife and three year old boy, we were directly in front of the Stemmons Freeway sign, as the motorcade rounded the corner from Houston onto Elm.
When I saw the motorcade round the corner, the President was standing and waving to the crowd. And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved at the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot, and I saw him, "The President," sit back in his seat and lean his head to his left side. At this point, I saw Mrs. Kennedy stand up and pull his head over in her lap, and then lay down over him as if to shield him. ?


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2.   One of the seven strongest Zapruder camera jiggles, before z318. Four of the strong camera jiggles are associated with the limousine passing being the sign. Tests have shown that a subject passing behind another object will cause someone to jiggle the camera as if they just heard a loud noise. The three ?non-sign? jiggles correspond to z153, z222 and z312.



Jiggle Analysis on Zapruder, who thought there was only two shots, should conclude there was only two shots and that is what Dr Hartman concluded.

3. THE PANNING ERROR--BLUR ANALYSIS OF THE ZAPRUDER FILM*??.

81.   
82.   Using frame 310 as the time of the trigger pull, it is possible to determine that the sound from that shot would have reached Zapruder at frame 313-314: Zapruder was standing approximately 270 feet from the Texas School Book Depository window, sound travels slightly more than 1,100 feet per second. (29) and the sound of the shock wave from the bullet itself reached Zapruder slightly before the sound of the muzzle blast from the window. Finally, the pattern of jiggles that was discovered was compared with the results of the committee's acoustics study. The correlation between the jiggle analysis and the acoustics test is treated separately in an addendum to this report.
(e) Conclusion
83.   1. Two pronounced series of jiggles or blurs on the Zapruder film, one during frames 189-197, a time when other visual evidence suggests that President, Kennedy was first shot, (30) and another during the following impact of the head shot, may reasonably be attributed to the photographer's startle reaction to the sound of gunshots.

Zapruder WC testimony?He states there was only two shots

Mr. ZAPRUDER - Well, as the car came in line almost--I believe it was almost in line. I was standing up here and I was shooting through a telephoto lens, which is a zoom lens and as it reached about--I imagine it was around here--I heard the first shot and I saw the President lean over and grab himself like this (holding his left chest area).
Mr. LIEBELER - Grab himself on the front of his chest?
Mr. ZAPRUDER - Right---something like that. In other words, he was sitting like this and waving and then after the shot he just went like that.
Mr. LIEBELER - He was sitting upright in the car and you heard the shot and you saw the President slump over?
Mr. ZAPRUDER - Leaning--leaning toward the side of Jacqueline. For a moment I thought it was, you know, like you say, "Oh, he got me," when you hear a shot--you've heard these expressions and then I saw---I don't believe the President is going to make jokes like this, but before I had a chance to organize my mind, I heard a second shot and then I saw his head opened up and the blood and everything came out and I started--I can hardly talk about it [ the witness crying].


Mr. LIEBELER - Nobody should ever be ashamed of feeling that way, Mr. Zapruder. I feel the same way myself. It was a terrible thing.
Let me go back now for just a moment and ask you how many shots you heard altogether.
Mr. ZAPRUDER - I thought I heard two, it could be three, because to my estimation I thought he was hit on the second--I really don't know. The whole thing that has been transpiring--it was very upsetting and as you see I got a little better all the time and this came up again and it to me looked like the second shot, but I don't know. I never even heard a third shot.


Marilyn Sitzman was the assistant steadying Zapruder on the concrete abutment and she also states there was only two shots.
Marilyn Sitzman- Josiah Thompson interview she states there was two shots.

Sitzman: Try it again. There was nothing unusual until the first sound, which I thought was a firecracker, mainly because of the reaction of President Kennedy. He put his hands up to guard his face and leaned to the left, and the motorcade, you know, proceeded down the hill. And the next thing that I remembered correct ... clearly was the shot that hit him directly in front of us, or almost directly in front of us, that hit him on the side of his fa ... [sic]
Thompson: Where on the side of the head did that shot appear to hit? Sitzman: I would say it'd be above the ear and to the front.

Thompson: ....If she had to guess from which direction they came, she would have guessed to her left, but there was no distinction in direction of the sound or magnitude of sound with respect to the two shots


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3.   President Kennedy also turns to his right, although, of course, we have no testimony, during the z160?s.



JFK was waving at the people along the street. Mary Woodward said they called out to him and then he turned his head and looked and waved at her and her friends.

================================================


4.   Rosemary Willis, who was trotting along, starts to slow down in the z160?s and comes to a stop by the z190?s, staring back in the general direction of the TSBD.



The statements of the adults along Elm including her war vet father don?t agree with the interpretation of Rosemarie's actions as to when the first shot occurred.

[Jack Nessan]

Well, I didn't present Rosemary Willis's running/stopping in isolation like that, like it alone was the only reason for a early missed shot. But if one does isolate it, I suppose it makes it seem less reliable.

I don't know for sure why Rosemary in particular decided to slow and ultimately stop, other than she once said it was in response to hearing the first shot.

And was the woman banishing a cane or umbrella with her right hand as she steps backwards? Or were both her arms simply wearing dark gloves?




There seems to be a closed umbrella shape dangling from the woman's left arm, but it's not in the path of the girl running.

I guess one of the ways to get "an early shot not heard by anyone" is to isolate Rosemary Willis, and then proclaim her account is suspect because of some long object supposedly in her path.

One of Rosemary's parents, her father Phil, did testify that the first shot caused Mrs. Kennedy to turn from his side of the street to the opposite side. She does this beginning in the low-Z170s.

    "In slide No. 4 he was looking pretty much toward--straight ahead,
     and she was looking more to the left, which would be my side of
     the street. Then when the first shot was fired, she turned to the
     right toward him and he more or less slumped forward, and it
     caused me to wonder if he were hit, although I couldn?t say."

Willis 04 was taken about Z133.

If you know of an eyewitness that states there was an early missed shot feel free to quote them. What is known is there was not a shot at this time because the eyewitnesses state where the first shot happened. It is any bodies guess as to why a running child would stop and look around. With all the adult eyewitnesses on Elm Street all stating where the first shot occurred and the reaction of JFK, why focus on the movements and statements of a child as being contradictory to all the adult statements. Do you really think she knew something no one else knew?


Phil Willis states when he took the picture (#5), which correlates to Z210, No need for all the guessing, he states exactly when the first shot happened and so did his oldest daughter and his wife Marilyn states the second shot as being the headshot and then just adds another shot at the end. Willis explained in a number of different ways that the first shot hit JFK.

Mr. LIEBELER. All right. Now, you are certain that the first shot was fired at approximately the time or shortly at approximately the time you took the picture that has been marked Hudson Exhibit No. 1; is that right?
Mr. WILLIS. I am positive.
Mr. LIEBELER. Do you remember hearing the shot?
Mr. WILLIS. Absolutely. I, having been in World War II, and being a deer hunter hobbyist, I would recognize a high-powered rifle immediately.
Mr. LIEBELER. Did you recognize this as a high-powered rifle?
Mr. WILLIS. Absolutely.
Mr. LIEBELER. And you heard it just about the time you took the picture that has been marked?


FBI Affidavit 6/23/64

WILLIS advised that at just about the  time that the
limousine carrying President Kennedy was opposite the Stemmons Freeway road
sign he heard a loud report and knew immediate1y it was a rifle shot
and knew also the shot "had hit.

------------------------------------------

Linda K Willis (older daughter)

Mr. LIEBELER. Did you follow the motorcade down Elm Street at all, or did you stand on the corner up toward Houston Street and watch from there?
Miss. WILLIS. I was right across from the sign that points to where Stemmons Expressway is. I was directly across when the first shot hit him.

Mr. LIEBELER. Now when you saw the President get hit in the head, did you hear any more shots after that?
Miss. WILLIS. Yes; the first one, I heard the first shot come and then he slumped forward?..

Miss WILLIS. No; when the first shot rang out, I thought, well, it's probably fireworks, because everybody is glad the President is in town. Then I realized it was too loud and too close to be fireworks, and then when I saw, when I realized that the President was falling over, I knew he had been hit. But I didn't know how badly.

--------------------------------------------

Marilyn Willis (FBI Report on 6-19-64) "...when the motorcade passed on Elm Street in front of where she was standing she heard a noise that sounded like a firecracker or a backfire. A few seconds later she stated she heard another report and saw the top of President Kennedy's head "blow off and ringed by a red halo." She stated she believes she heard another shot following this."