James Leon Simmons.... Overpass Witness

[Mitch Todd]

You made that claim -- you didn't actually substantiate it.  But that's irrelevant anyway.  If something's not the same, then it's not the same.  Stop pretending that "close to some arbitrary measure of closeness" equals "the same".

If you had just said 3 degrees off or whatever, then we wouldn't be having this argument.

As the graphic you've posted shows, the difference between the line from the overpass to the TSBD and one from the overpass to the fence corner is a very small angle, just by cursory inspection. The precise measurement of the angle is kinda beside the point; it doesn't affect the argument one way or the other. It just puts a particular number and unit to a small value. I didn't do so initially because I didn't figure that anyone would require Wopner-at-4:30-grade measurements. In fact, no one else but you seems to have needed them.

The degree of precision isn't arbitrary at all. It's based on the units that people actually use every day when determining and communicating direction where more precise mechanical means aren't available. It stands to reason that these units are determined by the minimum differences in direction that humans can easily discern on their own. One divides a circle into twelve equal sections, the other divides that circle into sixteen. If you wish to differ, that's OK, but you gotta do better than what you've managed so far.

And you still haven't answered my question, since you seem not to like what I use as a benchmark for precision. I'll ask again:

Now, given the real world conditions of Dealey Plaza on Nov 11, 1963, how accurate do you think the TP witnesses audio localization capabilities were at the time?

 

[Mitch Todd]

Says the guy who spent weeks arguing over the difference between "Brennan saw the man with a gun" and Brennan saw a man with a gun".

Same direction does not mean 11 degrees off.  Especially when that figure is just pulled out of nowhere.  Same direction means same direction.

"Same direction" is hostage to the precision of the instrument measuring that direction. In this case, the instrument is a human being. Humans are not generally renowned for the accuracy of their perception. If you have a better case, then make it. If you want to keep repeating "same direction, same direction" like a broken Tickle Me Elmo, you are free to do so. We are also free to, well, I think you know.

[John Iacoletti]

It stands to reason that these units are determined by the minimum differences in direction that humans can easily discern on their own.

What is your source for what humans can easily discern on their own?  Particularly your 11 degrees claim.  You still haven't answered that.

And you still haven't answered my question, since you seem not to like what I use as a benchmark for precision. I'll ask again:

Now, given the real world conditions of Dealey Plaza on Nov 11, 1963, how accurate do you think the TP witnesses audio localization capabilities were at the time?

I don't care.  I'm merely pointing out that 11 degrees off is not the "same direction".  Nor is 3 degrees off.  Same direction means zero degrees.

[Bill Brown]

I don't care.  I'm merely pointing out that 11 degrees off is not the "same direction".  Nor is 3 degrees off.  Same direction means zero degrees.

"So now the word-game-du-jour is to quibble over the meaning of the letter "s"?" - John Iacoletti


So now the word-game-du-jour is to quibble over the meaning of "same direction"?

[Mitch Todd]

What is your source for what humans can easily discern on their own?  Particularly your 11 degrees claim.  You still haven't answered that.

I answered that in reply #47 of this thread:

The question I asked is about that: how precise are human beings with direction? This question can be easily answered by noting that "human-measurable" scales regarding direction don't get any more precise than a 16 point compass rose. So direction in this case is only accurate to within +/- 11 degrees.

I really don't think it's exactly +/-11 degrees, but it's pretty close to that, otherwise we'd need (and have) more compass points than N, SW, ENE, etc.  To put it another way, if you and someone else were standing at the edge of a downtown, and there was a loud, unexpected shot, would you expect your companion to say, "Wow, that came from 49 degrees East of North"? Or would he just point in the general direction as best he could? 


In response to my question, "Now, given the real world conditions of Dealey Plaza on Nov 11, 1963, how accurate do you think the TP witnesses audio localization capabilities were at the time?" You said:

I don't care.  I'm merely pointing out that 11 degrees off is not the "same direction".  Nor is 3 degrees off.  Same direction means zero degrees.

Pity you don't care. The effect precision has on measurement is fundamental to the problem. "Same" is dependent on the ability to accurately distinguish quantity. Let's assume you have a measuring device that's accurate to +/-1 cm. You have some object, A, that your device says is 46cm and another object, B, that measures out to 47cm. Which is longer? Simple question, right? B should be, by one centimeter. But that's not true. There's a centimeter worth of uncertainty for each measurement. A could really be 46.7cm and B might be 46.4 cm, and still measure 46cm and 47cm respectively. For that matter, you can also have an object C that measures 55cm and an object D that measures 57cm, though both are in reality 56cm. The measuring device isn't accurate enough to reliably discriminate length differentials  less than 2cm. A and B then are properly considered to be the same length, since the measuring device can't discriminate finely enough between the lengths. This is a fundamental issue in science, and is one of the first things taught in science classes at the high school level. Maybe even their junior high level. Maybe you were out sick that day.

It comes down to how precise you think that someone could be about the direction of the origin of a shot in Dealey Plaza. I'd keep asking you about what you think that level of precision would be, but as you say, you don't care.  It's the most important underlying question to the whole kerfluffle...and you simply don't care. But you want to argue about it anyway.

[Steve Howsley]

I'd keep asking you about what you think that level of precision would be, but as you say, you don't care.  It's the most important underlying question to the whole kerfluffle...and you simply don't care. But you want to argue about it anyway.

Beautifully put.

Nailed it.

[Bill Chapman]

As the graphic you've posted shows, the difference between the line from the overpass to the TSBD and one from the overpass to the fence corner is a very small angle, just by cursory inspection. The precise measurement of the angle is kinda beside the point; it doesn't affect the argument one way or the other. It just puts a particular number and unit to a small value. I didn't do so initially because I didn't figure that anyone would require Wopner-at-4:30-grade measurements. In fact, no one else but you seems to have needed them.

The degree of precision isn't arbitrary at all. It's based on the units that people actually use every day when determining and communicating direction where more precise mechanical means aren't available. It stands to reason that these units are determined by the minimum differences in direction that humans can easily discern on their own. One divides a circle into twelve equal sections, the other divides that circle into sixteen. If you wish to differ, that's OK, but you gotta do better than what you've managed so far.

And you still haven't answered my question, since you seem not to like what I use as a benchmark for precision. I'll ask again:

Now, given the real world conditions of Dealey Plaza on Nov 11, 1963, how accurate do you think the TP witnesses audio localization capabilities were at the time?

"In fact, no one else but you seems to have needed them"

GeeItsFunToTrollHereJohnny is way out in left field* as usual. He's crackers, Jack. Take hm out to the ballgame and don't forget his peanuts and popcorn. But really, we don't care if he ever gets back.

In that vein, one can point to anywhere in left field and it's still gonna be left field

Take Me Out to the Ballgame
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Take_Me_Out_to_the_Ball_Game#Lyrics

Thanks to Jack Norworth for the 1908 version, which is out of copyright.
My little tale is inspired by his lyrics.

A Modern Tale of How to Strike Out the Side
by Bill Chapman with a great big shout-out to Jack Norworth

   Before the start of the game (an away game played in Texas against the "Dallas Usual Suspects') the  manager of the Little League 'Stepford Sheep Dippers' tells pipsqueak 9 yo left fielder Little Johnny I: "Little Johnny I, notice that the wind is blowing out toward left field today. That includes all of left field, not just the exact spots I'll be pointing at to shift you to"

"But Mr. Chapman", pleads little Johnny I, "my daddy told me that the earth is flat so there can't be any wind.. and that means wind is a hoax and the the government is just pretending."

Manager Chapman replies "Little Johnny I, you're weird."

 

* From the Way Out In Left Field Society: "The phrase "way out in left field" has evolved to mean an eccentric, odd, misguided or peculiar statement or act. Although the origin of the phrase has been challenged and debated over the years, the most logical and realistic explanation comes from an extinct baseball park called West Side Grounds that the Chicago Cubs called home from 1893 to 1915. As legend has it, a mental hospital called the Neuropsychiatric Institute was located directly behind the left field wall. The Institute housed mental patients who could be heard making strange and bizarre comments within listening distance of players and fans. Thus, if someone said that you were "way out in left field," the person was questioning your sanity and comparing you with a mental patient"[16][17]
-Wikipedia

Take Me Out to the Ball Game_1908

[John Iacoletti]

I answered that in reply #47 of this thread:

The question I asked is about that: how precise are human beings with direction? This question can be easily answered by noting that "human-measurable" scales regarding direction don't get any more precise than a 16 point compass rose. So direction in this case is only accurate to within +/- 11 degrees.

I really don't think it's exactly +/-11 degrees, but it's pretty close to that, otherwise we'd need (and have) more compass points than N, SW, ENE, etc.  To put it another way, if you and someone else were standing at the edge of a downtown, and there was a loud, unexpected shot, would you expect your companion to say, "Wow, that came from 49 degrees East of North"? Or would he just point in the general direction as best he could? 

You're just restating the claim.  Is there any research that shows that humans can only distinguish 11 degrees or did you just pull that out of your rear orifice?

It comes down to how precise you think that someone could be about the direction of the origin of a shot in Dealey Plaza. I'd keep asking you about what you think that level of precision would be, but as you say, you don't care.  It's the most important underlying question to the whole kerfluffle...and you simply don't care. But you want to argue about it anyway.

This is really pointless.  Would it have changed your point in any way to use the more accurate phrase "nearly the same direction"?  "Same" is a binary proposition.  Something is either the same or it is not the same.  You're exaggerating the language in order to try to make your argument more compelling.  Just like you're equating the entire grassy knoll area with one corner of the retaining wall in order to make your "same" difference as small as possible.  Yes, it matters.

It's impossible to have a meaningful conversation about the evidence if people won't even be honest and accurate about what the evidence is.