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JFK Assassination Plus General Discussion & Debate => JFK Assassination Plus General Discussion And Debate => Topic started by: Charles Collins on July 03, 2019, 12:26:45 AM

Title: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 03, 2019, 12:26:45 AM
The first shot occurring earlier than the WC originally thought makes a lot of sense to me. So I began looking for visual evidence of this shot around the likely time of Z160. Also, the following tends to indicate the shot took place even earlier than Z160:

1.) Howard Brennan's affidavit of 11/22/63 that states JFK's back was inline with the last window (west) of the south side of the TSBD when the first shot sounded.

2.) The interesting work of Max Holland, which is described in this well written article by Kenneth R. Scearce:

      http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/scearce.htm

      The above article includes some well done clips of the Zapruder film.

3.)  This Willis Lamm article is interesting also:

       http://www.kbrhorse.net/signals/eagle03a.htm (http://www.kbrhorse.net/signals/eagle03a.htm)

4.)  The action of D.V. Harkness , the traffic cop assigned to the intersection of Main and Houston. From the first time I saw the Hughes film clip, many years ago, I wondered what had caused  Harkness to suddenly turn away from his primary duty of the
      control of the intersection and walk towards where the limousine was traveling while apparently looking very intently for something. And whether he had just heard the sound of the first shot. If so, his actions would fit what I might expect.

5.)  The more I considered this, the more convinced I am that the fraction of a second stop/start of Hughes' camera is highly unusual and therefore it could be a startle reaction to the sound of the first shot. I checked Dale Meyers' synchronization report of the films and he reports that there are six frames missing due to this stop/start. There are other items of evidence to support this theory. The image below will illustrate some of what I am going to write:

(https://i.vgy.me/0UPYtg.jpg)

As illustrated above, the Tina Towner film ends just barely before the Hughes Film split-second break. Tina has said that the first shot occured just after she stopped filming. At essentially the same time as the Hughes film split second break, the Dorman film shows one extremely blurred frame, which I believe indicates a sudden jerk (startle reaction to the first shot) before stopping for 49 frames.

Brennan's first shot description in the 11/22/63 affidavit, the films' anomalies, and the Harkness reaction all happen just before the Zapruder film begins. Also Rosemary Willis already has her head turned sharply, looking back over her right shoulder in the direction of the TSBD, in frame Z133, the first frame of that sequence. She has said she turned her head to look back there when she heard the first shot.

Based on the above, when I created the 3D mock-up of the sniper's nest, out of curiosity, I located the limo in line with Brennan's position and the last windows of the south face of the TSBD. I wanted to see if the sniper had a good view of JFK at that point in time, he did. I have always thought that even if the sniper missed, this shot should have at least hit the limo somewhere. What became apparent to me is that if the sniper took the first shot at that point while tracking the target from his left to right, the small box is in the way of the rifle. It appears to me that the likely reason the first shot missed is that the rifle was stopped by colliding with the box, but the target kept moving. So the bullet would have hit behind the limo on the road. Here are some images to illustrate what I am saying:

(https://i.vgy.me/zmuZPB.jpg)

(https://i.vgy.me/qMkoIL.jpg)

The three limos represent it's locations at: shot #1 (just before Z133), shot #2 (at Z225), and shot #3 (at Z313). You can see Brennan's location on top of the fence. The other two men represent Dillard's positions at his two photos immediately after the shots. They also give an idea of the path of the vehicles in the motorcade. I used elevations and measurements of distances from Roberdeau's map. And photos of the sniper's nest. The elevation of the sniper's eyes is 36 inches, this corresponds with my own eyes when sitting on a box the same height as the one the sniper sat on. I am roughly the same height as Oswald.

I encourage others to make their own mock ups of the sniper's nest to see if they end up with something similar to mine and let us know. The program that I am using is free. It is called SweetHome 3D. I think I did have to pay a few bucks for some library items. And I found the rifle for free online. I had to improvise some things. The limo is an example.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Gary Craig on July 03, 2019, 03:08:05 AM
http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do?absPageId=69157&imageOnly=true

"Secret Service Agent, Paul E. Landis. Jr., wrote a statement on the shooting dated 11/30/63. Landis was in the follow-up car,
behind the Presidential Limo, on the outside running board on the right. He indicated that the first shot "sounded like the
report of a high- powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder."

According to his statement, the shot he identified as number two might have come from a different direction.

He said: "I still was not certain from which direction the second shot came, but my reaction at this time was that the shot
came from somewhere towards the front right hand side of the road."
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 03, 2019, 03:45:05 AM
http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do?absPageId=69157&imageOnly=true

"Secret Service Agent, Paul E. Landis. Jr., wrote a statement on the shooting dated 11/30/63. Landis was in the follow-up car,
behind the Presidential Limo, on the outside running board on the right. He indicated that the first shot "sounded like the
report of a high- powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder."

According to his statement, the shot he identified as number two might have come from a different direction.

He said: "I still was not certain from which direction the second shot came, but my reaction at this time was that the shot
came from somewhere towards the front right hand side of the road."


Paul Landis stated initially on 11/27 that there was only two shots. He somewhat added a third shot later.

Statement of Special Agent Paul E. Landis, Jr., United States Secret Service, concerning his activities and official duties on November 22, 1963.

"...At this moment I heard what sounded like the report of a high-powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder. When I heard the sound there was no question in my mind what it was. My first glance was at the President, as I was practically looking in his direction anyway. I saw him moving in a manner which I thought was to look in the direction of the sound. I did not realize that President Kennedy had been shot at this point....."

......I think I recall Special Agent Jack Ready saying, "What was it? A fire cracker?" I remarked ''I don't know, I don't see any smoke." All during this time I was scanning the crowd and returning my gaze to the President's car. By then I think I had my gun out, but I do not recall exactly when it was drawn. I then thought that maybe one of the cars in the motorcade had had a blowout that had echoed off the buildings. I looked at the front right tire of the President's car and saw it was alright and glanced to see the right rear tire but could not as the follow-up car was too close. In fact, from my position on the running board of the follow-up car I could not see the rear bumper of the President's car. I glanced back towards the President, he still appeared upright in his seat, leaning slightly towards Mrs. Kennedy. It was at this moment that I heard a second report and saw the President's head split open and pieces of flesh and blood flying through the air. I also remember Special Agent Clinton Hill attempting to climb onto the back of the car at the time the second shot was fired. I would guess that the time between the first and second shot was approximately four or five seconds.


"My immediate thought was that the President could not possibly be alive after being hit like he was. I still was not certain from which direction the second shot came, but my reaction at this time was that the shot came from somewhere towards the front, right-hand side of the road."

-------------------------------

11/30 ---The addition to his statement to conform to what became the popular belief that there was three shots. Even after inserting the additional shot, he still referred to there only having been two shots:
"----All during this time I continued to scan the crowd, returning my gaze towards the President's car. It must have been another second or two before the next shot was fired because, as I recall having seen nothing out of the ordinary, I then thought that maybe one of the cars in the motorcade had had a blowout that had echoed off the buildings. I looked at the right front tire of the President's car and saw it was all right. I then glanced to see the right rear tire, but could not because the Follow-up car was too close.----
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 03, 2019, 05:41:46 AM

I find Max Holland's scientific analysis of the cartridge casings' ejection pattern in the reconstructed sniper's nest to be probative of a sharply downward-angled first shot's having occurred a second or two before Z-133.

-- MWT  ;)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 03, 2019, 03:12:04 PM
I find Max Holland's scientific analysis of the cartridge casings' ejection pattern in the reconstructed sniper's nest to be probative of a sharply downward-angled first shot's having occurred a second or two before Z-133.

-- MWT  ;)


The shell casing positioning suggests he ejected the Ce 543 empty shell casing while watching for the motorcade to arrive. He then moved to the East and positioned himself behind the rifle rest and prepared to fire at JFK after he turned onto Elm Street.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 03, 2019, 03:37:21 PM

The shell casing positioning suggests he ejected the Ce 543 empty shell casing while watching and waiting for the motorcade to arrive. He then moved to the East and positioned himself behind the rifle rest and prepared to fire at JFK after he turned onto Elm Street.

Jack,

I guess you haven't watched The Lost Bullet.

It not only shows how the three casings ended up where they did by ricocheting off the boxes around him, but also shows how he could have sat on one of the boxes he had placed "just so," and leaned way out from it to peek up to the Main and Houston intersection while waiting for the motorcade to arrive.

By holding his rifle or having it near by, standing up from that box would have put him in his first firing position without his even having to take a step, and for his second and third shots, all he would have had to do was kneel down from that standing position.

-- MWT  ;)


Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 03, 2019, 05:08:08 PM
I find Max Holland's scientific analysis of the cartridge casings' ejection pattern in the reconstructed sniper's nest to be probative of a sharply downward-angled first shot's having occurred a second or two before Z-133.

-- MWT  ;)

I agree.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 04, 2019, 12:43:40 AM
Jack,

I guess you haven't watched The Lost Bullet.

It not only shows how the three casings ended up where they did by ricocheting off the boxes around him, but also shows how he could have sat on one of the boxes he had placed "just so," and leaned out from it to peek out the window up Houston Street while waiting for the motorcade to arrive.

By holding his rifle or having it near by, standing up from that box would have put him in his first firing position without his even having to take a step, and for his second and third shots, all he would have had to do was kneel down from that standing position.

-- MWT  ;)

What if the original premise for the test is wrong? The WC and the HSCA both question the number of shots.

The marks and lack of them on CE 543 also leaves the premise in doubt.

Warren Commission

The physical and other evidence examined by the Commission compels the conclusion that at least two shots were fired. As discussed previously, the nearly whole bullet discovered at Parkland Hospital and the two larger fragments found in the Presidential automobile, which were identified as coming from the assassination rifle, came from at least two separate bullets and possibly from three. The most convincing evidence relating to the number of shots was provided by the presence on the sixth floor of three spent cartridges which were demonstrated to have been fired by the same rifle that fired the bullets which caused the wounds. It is possible that the assassin carried an empty shell in the rifle and fired only two shots, with the witnesses hearing multiple noises made by the same shot. Soon after the three
Page 111
empty cartridges were found, officials at the scene decided that three shots were fired, and that conclusion was widely circulated by the press. The eyewitness testimony may be subconsciously colored by the extensive publicity given the conclusion that three shots were fired. Nevertheless, the preponderance of the evidence, in particular the three spent cartridges, led the Commission to conclude that there were three shots fired

================================================

HSCA



"The buildings around the Plaza caused strong reverberations
or echoes that followed the initial sound by from 0.5 to 1.5 sec.
While these reflections caused no confusion to our listeners
who were prepared and expected to hear them they may well
inflated the number of shots
reported by the suprised witnesses
during the assassination" HSCA Earwitness Analysis Report, pgs 135-137

"All observers rated the rifle shots as very, very loud and
they were unable to understand how they could have been described
as a firecracker or backfire." HSCA Earwitness Analysis Report, pg 148




"'While recognizing the substantial number
of people who reported shots originating from the knoll the committee
also believed the process of collecting witness testimony was such
that it would be unwise to place substantial reliance upon it. The
witnesses were interviewed over a substantial period of time some of
them several days even weeks after the assassination By that time
numerous accounts of the number and direction of the shots had been
published.
The committee believed that the witnesses memories and
testimony on the number, direction, and timing of the shots may have
been substantially influenced by the intervening publicity concern
ing the events of November 22 1963"
  HSCA Final Report- pg 87
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 01:30:32 AM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/i3b4av.jpg)

The early shot alongside the boxes didn't work for me.

Interesting, are those vertical objects to the left of the boxes supposed to be the pipes?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 01:51:45 AM
Yes. Sorry I'm such a poor 3D artist.

Something isn’t quite right. They shouldn’t be in his line of sight from his seat on the box.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 04, 2019, 02:10:45 AM
Something isn’t quite right. They shouldn’t be in his line of sight from his seat on the box.

He wasn't sitting on the box while firing any of the three shots.

Watch The Lost Bullet, again, for cryin' out loud.

I'll find out how many minutes into the video for you to start watching, and post it here for you, okay?

-- MWT  ;)

Edit:  The segment in The Lost Bullet where they analyze the sniper's positions, how the spent casings ended up where they did, etc., etc., starts at 43:56 ...

Google  "the lost bullet" video

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 02:35:14 AM
Edited and bumped for Charles Collins.

-- MWT   ;)

Thanks Thomas, I will watch it tomorrow hopefully.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Mytton on July 04, 2019, 02:42:07 AM
He wasn't sitting on the box while firing any of the three shots.

Watch The Lost Bullet, again, for cryin' out loud.

I'll find out how many minutes into the video for you to start watching, and post it here for you, okay?

-- MWT  ;)

Edit:  The segment in The Lost Bullet where they analyze the sniper's position, how the spent casings ended up where they did, etc., etc., starts at 43:56 ...

Google  "the lost bullet" video

(https://i.postimg.cc/8CsJZXB9/whatstheproblemd-zpsatodspu8.jpg)

JohnM
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 04, 2019, 04:00:27 AM
(https://i.postimg.cc/8CsJZXB9/whatstheproblemd-zpsatodspu8.jpg)

JohnM

The box to the left of the pipe is the one he was sitting on (facing this way) while waiting for the limo to appear at Main and Houston.

He could lean far to his left and peek out the window from there.

-- MWT  ;)

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Bill Chapman on July 04, 2019, 07:39:49 AM
Something isn’t quite right. They shouldn’t be in his line of sight from his seat on the box.

What makes you think shots were taken while seated on the box? I should think that Oswald had to be right at that window in order to be seen from the street.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Chris Davidson on July 04, 2019, 08:18:16 AM
More WC "sleight of hand-y" work.
(https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Sniper.gif)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 02:33:27 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/8CsJZXB9/whatstheproblemd-zpsatodspu8.jpg)

JohnM

Thanks John, it appears to me that the photo of the actual sniper's nest was taken after the boxes had been moved for fingerprinting and then put back. And it appears to me that they positioned them closer to the center of the window than they originally were. The photos of the reenactment in Max Holland's mock-up, with the guy kneeling, don't include the box that the sniper was sitting on. My contention is that that box would be in the way of his lower legs and feet in that kneeling position. Here are a few photos to illustrate my point.


This first one shows a top (plan) view of the sniper's nest. The box he was sitting on is about 16.5" from the south wall, as indicated in Day's testimony. The 3 boxes just inside the window are positioned closer to the east than in your photo. This agrees with the Dillard telephoto photograph taken seconds after the last shot. The result is that there is very little room between the sitting box and the other boxes for someone to kneel without some interference.

(https://i.vgy.me/u7VWZB.jpg)

This one includes the sniper sitting on the box and leaning forward. It is the position that is used for the view from Brennan's position. If the sniper sits straight up he is out of view from Brennan's position. And the sniper has a view of all three of the positions of the limo for shots at: just before Z133, Z225, and Z313 without moving much at all.

(https://i.vgy.me/6XkwuD.jpg)

Finally, Max Holland says in his program that the box the sniper was sitting on was in about the position in this photo. However it was actually much closer as I have shown above. And Max appears to be sitting on two boxes, so he was much higher than the sniper.

(https://i.vgy.me/Laylaa.png)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 02:47:29 PM
What makes you think shots were taken while seated on the box? I should think that Oswald had to right at that window in order to be seen from the street.

See my previous response to Mytton.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 04:19:11 PM
(http://i65.tinypic.com/sginap.jpg)

View angle for Z133 shot. Holland places his early shot a little before this.

Eye level is good and I suppose up to three seconds of tracking (limousine length is roughly two-seconds of travel??).

Yes, you got it pretty much the same as I did. Is your setup layout to accurate measurements? If so, it tends to confirm my findings. Very nice!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jim Brunsman on July 04, 2019, 04:21:37 PM
I think it's hilarious but tragic that people are still trying to "shoehorn" LHO into that window with malicious intent. There are a lot of potential assassins I'd be concerned about, but "Lee Hardly" is not one of them, especially with his unimpressive shooting record and that embarrassing rifle. Virtually every bit of evidence in this case has been tampered with or has a dubious chain of possession. Autopsy witnesses reported bullets and fragments recovered that were never introduced as evidence.

If there was a lone assassin, everything would line up perfectly and there would be no controversy. What we find is quite the opposite, with corrupt officials at the highest levels of our government covering up the truth from the outset.

You nutters are aware that Max Holland is a paid shill of the CIA, right? The guy is so oily, he makes me ill. He has concocted some of the most idiotic assassination scenarios I've ever heard and you people quote this genius? Again, it's embarrassing. Holland and Posner should start a detective agency together...

Again, I have to beg all of you: DON'T EAT THE CHEESE! IT'S A TRAP AND YOU ARE DECEIVING HISTORY! It is painfully obvious LHO was the patsy he claimed to be and it is an atrocity that you duped nutters continue to perpetuate the impossible notion of a lone assassin. The cockamamie story concocted by Specter needs to be filed in the only appropriate place for such malodorous waste: the toilet at the National Archives...

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Denis Pointing on July 04, 2019, 05:11:26 PM
I think it's hilarious but tragic that people are still trying to "shoehorn" LHO into that window with malicious intent. There are a lot of potential assassins I'd be concerned about, but "Lee Hardly" is not one of them, especially with his unimpressive shooting record and that embarrassing rifle. Virtually every bit of evidence in this case has been tampered with or has a dubious chain of possession. Autopsy witnesses reported bullets and fragments recovered that were never introduced as evidence.

If there was a lone assassin, everything would line up perfectly and there would be no controversy. What we find is quite the opposite, with corrupt officials at the highest levels of our government covering up the truth from the outset.

You nutters are aware that Max Holland is a paid shill of the CIA, right? The guy is so oily, he makes me ill. He has concocted some of the most idiotic assassination scenarios I've ever heard and you people quote this genius? Again, it's embarrassing. Holland and Posner should start a detective agency together...

Again, I have to beg all of you: DON'T EAT THE CHEESE! IT'S A TRAP AND YOU ARE DECEIVING HISTORY! It is painfully obvious LHO was the patsy he claimed to be and it is an atrocity that you duped nutters continue to perpetuate the impossible notion of a lone assassin. The cockamamie story concocted by Specter needs to be filed in the only appropriate place for such malodorous waste: the toilet at the National Archives...

Always the same from this guy, loads of opinion and posits..never a scrap of fact or evidence to back any of it up. In a previous post you wrote: "I should have kept my opinions to myself." What happened?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 06:16:45 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2lthny8.jpg)

In my model there is room for the left leg to brace itself between the pipe and Box C and plenty of room for the right leg. Possibly the right foot braced against a box on the floor.

I am using a 5' 9" generic male standing model that I manually articulated (SketchUp doesn't allow articulated models that intuitively reset facets like more-advanced programs). When I bend the joints, facets retain their "standing" positions. I have left the hips and above articulated.

Nice work! I don’t doubt that it is feasible to get into that position. But I do question whether or not it would be awkward and time consuming. And I don’t really believe that it would be advantageous. I do believe that this could be studied further with a physical mock-up similar to the one used in Max Holland’s film.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 04, 2019, 06:41:31 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/2lthny8.jpg)

In my model there is room for the left leg to brace itself between the pipe and Box C and plenty of room for the right leg. Possibly the right foot braced against a box on the floor. He would be seated on Box D.

I am using a 5' 9" generic male standing model that I manually articulated (SketchUp doesn't allow articulated models that intuitively reset facets like more-advanced programs). When I bend the joints, facets retain their "standing" positions. I have left the hips and above unarticulated.

Also Jerry, here is a photo of a page of the Marines Guidebook from that era. Notice that the kneeling position typically utilizes the right foot as a place to sit (for stability). This would not be feasible in the sniper's nest because the sitting box would be in the way. However, it does appear that you have him still using the box for that purpose. So, I believe it is feasible and could have happened that way. But, until I try it myself, it seems like it would be awkward and time consuming and unnecessary.

(https://i.vgy.me/teUX6G.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Chris Davidson on July 04, 2019, 06:53:19 PM
More WC "sleight of hand-y" work.
(https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Sniper.gif)
Once it's realized the "limo front/bumper" is not the same location as "JFK within the limo" you might have a better appreciation for what they were trying to accomplish.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48198248957_0cd9a60375_o.png)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Bill Chapman on July 04, 2019, 07:43:19 PM
I think it's hilarious but tragic that people are still trying to "shoehorn" LHO into that window with malicious intent. There are a lot of potential assassins I'd be concerned about, but "Lee Hardly" is not one of them, especially with his unimpressive shooting record and that embarrassing rifle. Virtually every bit of evidence in this case has been tampered with or has a dubious chain of possession. Autopsy witnesses reported bullets and fragments recovered that were never introduced as evidence.

If there was a lone assassin, everything would line up perfectly and there would be no controversy. What we find is quite the opposite, with corrupt officials at the highest levels of our government covering up the truth from the outset.

You nutters are aware that Max Holland is a paid shill of the CIA, right? The guy is so oily, he makes me ill. He has concocted some of the most idiotic assassination scenarios I've ever heard and you people quote this genius? Again, it's embarrassing. Holland and Posner should start a detective agency together...

Again, I have to beg all of you: DON'T EAT THE CHEESE! IT'S A TRAP AND YOU ARE DECEIVING HISTORY! It is painfully obvious LHO was the patsy he claimed to be and it is an atrocity that you duped nutters continue to perpetuate the impossible notion of a lone assassin. The cockamamie story concocted by Specter needs to be filed in the only appropriate place for such malodorous waste: the toilet at the National Archives...

::)

Can't wait for your press conference...
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Chris Davidson on July 04, 2019, 07:54:29 PM
When you roll a car down a street with a 3.13° slope and re-measure the "mark", the relationship for vertical to horizontal is 1ft/18.3ft.
A 10" change should have resulted in the "mark" moving 10/12 = .833... x 18.3 = 15.25ft farther down Elm St.
The entries for CE884 z161-166 make it quite obvious that a ballistic, as well as speed adjustment was being made for syncing.
The distance from the limo front to JFK within the limo is 15.11ft
The distance between first shot determination(FBI/SS) at Station#3+81.3 and CE884 extant z235(Station#396.8) = 15.5 ft = the same distance between StationC - 234.5 (where the measurements started) and directly below the snipers window at Station# 250.0
The "mark" is and always was JFK's physical location within the limo.
Follow the bouncing ball.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48198612877_58a82ddb76_o.png)

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jim Brunsman on July 04, 2019, 08:11:17 PM
I have plenty of posts loaded with evidence, but I notice your total silence when I make irrefutable points. But the same is true of all the "nutters."
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jim Brunsman on July 04, 2019, 08:12:52 PM
Once again, just nonsensical cheap shots. I would gladly debate anyone in any venue on these issues...
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jim Brunsman on July 04, 2019, 08:14:45 PM
No clue why you would make a "JFK" reference complete with photo since it is totally unrelated to what I wrote...
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Bill Chapman on July 04, 2019, 08:50:25 PM
Once again, just nonsensical cheap shots. I would gladly debate anyone in any venue on these issues...

Feel free to name your shooter, and anyone other than the shooter who knew an attempt was going to be made on Kennedy that day.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 04, 2019, 09:43:45 PM
Interesting but the problem is this shot never happened. Not one eyewitness in Dealey Plaza ever heard this shot. Nobody at all. Especially not the men below the SN window.

BR WILLIAMS 11/22, Sheriffs Affidavit : "I heard 2 shots. It sounded like they came from just above us. We ran to the West side of the building. We didn't see anybody. "

James Jarman:

He said that he heard a shot and then saw President KENNEDY
move his right hand up to his head
. After an elapse of three
or four seconds, he heard a second shot and then the vehicle
bearing President KENNEDY speeded up and he was unable to
observe any more about the presidential vehicle. He said a
third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot
possibly within/second or two afterward. He said these shots
sounded to him to be too loud to have been anywhere outside the
TSBD building.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 05, 2019, 12:26:17 AM
Interesting but the problem is this shot never happened. Not one eyewitness in Dealey Plaza ever heard this shot. Nobody at all. Especially not the men below the SN window.

BR WILLIAMS 11/22, Sheriffs Affidavit : "I heard 2 shots. It sounded like they came from just above us. We ran to the West side of the building. We didn't see anybody. "

James Jarman:

He said that he heard a shot and then saw President KENNEDY
move his right hand up to his head
. After an elapse of three
or four seconds, he heard a second shot and then the vehicle
bearing President KENNEDY speeded up and he was unable to
observe any more about the presidential vehicle. He said a
third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot
possibly within/second or two afterward. He said these shots
sounded to him to be too loud to have been anywhere outside the
TSBD building.

James Jarman to the W.C.

"Mr. JARMAN - After the motorcade turned, going west on Elm, then there was a loud shot, (one)or backfire, as I thought it was then--I thought it was a backfire.
Mr. BALL - You thought it was what?
Mr. JARMAN - A backfire or an officer giving a salute to the President. And then at that time I didn't, you know, think too much about it. And then the second shot (two)was fired, and that is when the people started falling on the ground and the motorcade car jumped forward, and then the third shot (three)was fired right behind the second one.
Mr. BALL - Were you still on your knees looking up?
Mr. JARMAN - Well, after the third shot was fired, I think I got up and I run over to Harold Norman and Bonnie Ray Williams, and told them, I said, I told them that it wasn't a backfire or anything, that somebody was shooting at the President.

Seems Jarman thought he heard three shots.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jerry Freeman on July 05, 2019, 01:12:25 AM
The never ending fixation that only one rifle was being fired ---the never ending ...(https://www.raptureforums.com/forums/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/Revolving%20Door%20Smiley.gif)
 
(https://www.assassinationresearch.com/zfilm/z197.jpg)

The above frame is Z-197. What does it show? A violent camera shake for one thing.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jim Brunsman on July 05, 2019, 04:02:36 AM
We know who you think the shooter is. What does this say about your gullibility? Asking me to name the shooter is pretty silly, isn't it? Shouldn't you be more concerned there are no exit wounds on the front of JFK's body? A logical inference from a rear head shot would be that the face would be blown out, right? Instead, there's not a single report from Parkland of an exit wound on the front of the body. The only reports of a rear entry come from Connally's wounds. We also know the SBT is 100% impossible since several witnesses reported Humes' frustration at finding no point of exit for the back wound. If this bullet failed to transit the body, how could it be a threat to Governor Connally? Sorry pal, this annihilates your SBT, but then so does every other shred of evidence in this case. Your turn...

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 05, 2019, 06:55:49 AM
(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/mason/slumpwitnesses/Z172ff-slump.png)

One second after the Z150s shot that caused the Connallys and Mrs. Kennedy to turn their heads to their right and motivated Rosemary Willis to start to slow down so she could stop.

That is not what Rosemary's parents or any other adult for that matter stated occurred. Why quote a child being interviewed 15 years later for a school paper instead of the adult eyewitnesses making statements at that time?

Marilyn Willis (FBI Report on 6-19-64) "...when the motorcade passed on Elm Street in front of where she was standing she heard a noise that sounded like a firecracker or a backfire. A few seconds later she stated she heard another report and saw the top of President Kennedy's head "blow off and ringed by a red halo." She stated she believes she heard another shot following this."

Phil Willis:

Willis believed the first short was at Z202 with his Willis No 5 photo. He mentions Willis no. 4 as being several seconds before.


FBI Affidavit 6/23/64

WILLIS advised that at just about the  time that the
limousine carrying President Kennedy was opposite the Stemmons Freeway road
sign he heard a loud report and knew immediate1y it was a rifle shot
and knew also the shot "had hit.

Warren Commission
Mr. LIEBELER. Now did you stand at that particular spot the entire time, or did you move down Elm Street?
Mr. WILLIS. No, sir; I took that picture just seconds before the first shot was fired, to get back close up. Then I started down the street, and the regular weekly edition of Life magazine came out and shows me in about three different pictures going down the street. Then my next shot was taken at the very--in fact, the shot caused me to squeeze the camera shutter, and I got a picture of the President as he was hit with the first shot. So instantaneous, in fact, that the crowd hadn't had time to react.

================

Jackie's Theodore White interview. She describes two shots with the first hitting both men.
They were gunning the motorcycles; there were these little backfires; there was one noise like that; I thought it was a backfire. Then next I saw Connelly grabbing his arms and saying `no no no nonono,' with his fist beating--then Jack turned and I turned--all I remember was a blue gray building up ahead; then Jack turned back, so neatly; his last expression was so neat; he had his hand out, I could see a piece of his skull coming off; it was flesh colored not white--he was holding out his hand--and I can see this perfectly clean piece detaching itself from his head; then he slumped in my lap
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 05, 2019, 07:12:06 AM
James Jarman to the W.C.

"Mr. JARMAN - After the motorcade turned, going west on Elm, then there was a loud shot, (one)or backfire, as I thought it was then--I thought it was a backfire.
Mr. BALL - You thought it was what?
Mr. JARMAN - A backfire or an officer giving a salute to the President. And then at that time I didn't, you know, think too much about it. And then the second shot (two)was fired, and that is when the people started falling on the ground and the motorcade car jumped forward, and then the third shot (three)was fired right behind the second one.
Mr. BALL - Were you still on your knees looking up?
Mr. JARMAN - Well, after the third shot was fired, I think I got up and I run over to Harold Norman and Bonnie Ray Williams, and told them, I said, I told them that it wasn't a backfire or anything, that somebody was shooting at the President.

Seems Jarman thought he heard three shots.

Seems simple enough, Jarman states the 2nd shot takes place before the limousine speeds away then another shot. Shot one is the neck/throat shot. Shot two is the head shot. The car speeds away and a third shot after the head shot?

James Jarman:

He said that he heard a shot and then saw President KENNEDY
move his right hand up to his head.
After an elapse of three
or four seconds, he heard a second shot and then the vehicle
bearing President KENNEDY speeded up
and he was unable to
observe any more about the presidential vehicle. He said a
third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot
possibly within/second or two afterward. He said these shots
sounded to him to be too loud to have been anywhere outside the
TSBD building.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 05, 2019, 11:01:17 AM
Seems simple enough, Jarman states the 2nd shot takes place before the limousine speeds away then another shot. Shot one is the neck/throat shot. Shot two is the head shot. The car speeds away and a third shot after the head shot?

James Jarman:

He said that he heard a shot and then saw President KENNEDY
move his right hand up to his head.
After an elapse of three
or four seconds, he heard a second shot and then the vehicle
bearing President KENNEDY speeded up
and he was unable to
observe any more about the presidential vehicle. He said a
third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot
possibly within/second or two afterward. He said these shots
sounded to him to be too loud to have been anywhere outside the
TSBD building.
"He said a third shot was heard by him closely following the second shot possibly within/ second or two afterward."

So you confirm he thought he heard three shots. Good.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 05, 2019, 02:01:57 PM
"He said a third shot was heard by him closely following the second shot possibly within/ second or two afterward."

So you confirm he thought he heard three shots. Good.

Like so many others they add a shot. I am glad to see you are confirming he said the second shot was the headshot and a shot followed as the car was leaving Dealey Plaza.

Obviously you understood what he stated or there would not have been a reason to quote a later statement.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 05, 2019, 02:06:16 PM
Like so many others they add a shot. I am glad to see you are confirming he said the second shot was the headshot and a shot followed as the car was leaving Dealey Plaza.

Where did i confirm that the second shot was the headshot?

Quote
Obviously you understood what he stated or there would not have been a reason to quote a later statement.

I quoted him to contradict your belief that there were only two shots not three. You seem to have quoted  guy who disagrees with you.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 05, 2019, 02:40:39 PM
Where did i confirm that the second shot was the headshot?

I quoted him to contradict your belief that there were only two shots not three. You seem to have quoted  guy who disagrees with you.

No, he clearly stated in the statement, it was there for all to read:
 "He said a third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot possibly within/second or two afterward"

You read his statement and understood he was talking about a second shot headshot because you felt the need to quote his WC statement in which he states the exact same thing. The car accelerates after the second shot and before the third. The acceleration takes place after the second shot headshot as evidenced by the Zapruder film.

Jarman WC:  "and that is when the people started falling on the ground and the motorcade car jumped forward, and then the third shot (three)was fired right behind the second one."
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 05, 2019, 04:52:53 PM
No, he clearly stated in the statement, it was there for all to read:
 "He said a third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot possibly within/second or two afterward"

You read his statement and understood he was talking about a second shot headshot because you felt the need to quote his WC statement in which he states the exact same thing. The car accelerates after the second shot and before the third. The acceleration takes place after the second shot headshot as evidenced by the Zapruder film.

Jarman WC:  "and that is when the people started falling on the ground and the motorcade car jumped forward, and then the third shot (three)was fired right behind the second one."

I don't understand your point Jack. He said there were three shots. You only two.

"Mr. BALL - How long was it before you ran down to the west end, from the time of the shots until you ran down to the west end, about how much time do you think it was?
Mr. BALL - After the third shot was fired I would say it was about a minute.
Mr. McCLOY You have had military experience, haven't you?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY. And you can recognize rifle shots when you hear them?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - But you didn't hear, you didn't catch the sound of the bolt moving?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - Did you see the President actually hit by the bullets?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir.
I couldn't say that I saw him actually hit, but after the second shot, I presumed that he was, because I had my eye on his car from the time it came down Houston until the time it started toward the freeway underpass.
Mr. McCLOY - You saw him crumple, you saw him fall, did you?
Mr. JARMAN - I saw him lean his head.
Representative FORD - You actually saw the car lurch forward, did you?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD That is a distinct impression?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes.
Representative FORD - And you had followed it as it turned from Main on to Houston and followed it as it turned from Houston on to Elm?
Mr. JARMAN - Right, sir.
Representative FORD - Had your eye on the car all the time?
Mr JARMAN. Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - Where did you think the sound of the first shot came from? Do you have a distinct impression of that?
Mr. JARMAN - Well, it sounded, I thought at first it had came from below. That is what I thought.
Representative FORD - As you looked out the window and you were looking at the President's car.
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - Did you have a distinct impression as to whether the sound came from your left or from your right?
Mr. JARMAN - I am sure it came from the left.
Representative FORD - But your first reaction, that is was from below.
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - When the second shot came, do you have any different recollection?
Mr. JARMAN - Well, they all sounded just about the same.
Representative FORD - You distinctly recall three shots?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - And at what point did you get up from where you were on your knees in the window?
Mr. JARMAN - When the motorcar picked up speed.
Representative FORD - Was this after what you thought was the third shot?
Mr. JARMAN - The third shot; yes.

Representative FORD - McCloy said you had been in the army 8 years, two 4-year hitches. Was there any doubt in your mind that this was a gunshot, either one of the three?
Mr. JARMAN - Not after the second shot. I didn't have any doubt in my mind then.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 05, 2019, 04:56:47 PM
Rosemary's slowing-and-stopping is like the head turns of the Connallys and Mrs. Kennedy. It is substantiated by the Zapruder film.

I believe she was standing pretty far up on Elm.

Since you brought up Phil Willis:

Liebeler   You couldn’t tell whether he was hit by the first shot? You couldn’t tell whether he had been hit by the first shot or the second shot or the third shot, or by how many shots he had been hit?(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/newsgroup/spacers/dot_clear.gif)
WillisNo, sir; except this one thing might be worthy of mention. When I took slide No. 4, the President was smiling and waving and looking straight ahead, and Mrs. Kennedy was likewise smiling and facing more to my side of the street. When the first shot was fired, her head seemed to just snap in that direction, and he more or less faced the other side of the street and leaned forward, which caused me to wonder, although I could not see anything positively. It did cause me to wonder.(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/newsgroup/spacers/dot_clear.gif)
LiebelerYou say that the President looked toward his left; is that correct? Toward the side of Elm Street that you are standing on, or which way?(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/newsgroup/spacers/dot_clear.gif)
WillisIn slide No. 4 he was looking pretty much toward--straight ahead, and she was looking more to the left, which would be my side of the street.

When asked for specifics, Willis backed off his cavalier claims that Kennedy was hit by the first shot and that his 05 slide was taken at the instant of the shot.

She certainly doesn't do what you claim she does with that statement.

Could not be more clear. He states he reacts to the first shot by leaning forward. Just like he always stated the reaction to the shot made him take the picture.

Willis: "No, sir; except this one thing might be worthy of mention. When I took slide No. 4, the President was smiling and waving and looking straight ahead, and Mrs. Kennedy was likewise smiling and facing more to my side of the street. When the first shot was fired, her head seemed to just snap in that direction, and he more or less faced the other side of the street and leaned forward,"

-----------------------------------------------------------
Jackie clearly states he reacts to the first shot. She also references Gov Connally crying out to the same shot that hit JFK. She is not going to explain a noise that never occurred because someone comes up with an odd theory someday in the future.

An early missed shot never happened. How that is known is the eyewitnesses state what happened. Why base the understanding of the shot sequence of the assassination off the beliefs of a 10 year old girl and ignore all the adults stating an entirely different story?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 05, 2019, 05:09:45 PM
I don't understand your point Jack. He said there were three shots. You only two.

"Mr. BALL - How long was it before you ran down to the west end, from the time of the shots until you ran down to the west end, about how much time do you think it was?
Mr. BALL - After the third shot was fired I would say it was about a minute.
Mr. McCLOY You have had military experience, haven't you?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY. And you can recognize rifle shots when you hear them?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - But you didn't hear, you didn't catch the sound of the bolt moving?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - Did you see the President actually hit by the bullets?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir.
I couldn't say that I saw him actually hit, but after the second shot, I presumed that he was, because I had my eye on his car from the time it came down Houston until the time it started toward the freeway underpass.
Mr. McCLOY - You saw him crumple, you saw him fall, did you?
Mr. JARMAN - I saw him lean his head.
Representative FORD - You actually saw the car lurch forward, did you?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD That is a distinct impression?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes.
Representative FORD - And you had followed it as it turned from Main on to Houston and followed it as it turned from Houston on to Elm?
Mr. JARMAN - Right, sir.
Representative FORD - Had your eye on the car all the time?
Mr JARMAN. Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - Where did you think the sound of the first shot came from? Do you have a distinct impression of that?
Mr. JARMAN - Well, it sounded, I thought at first it had came from below. That is what I thought.
Representative FORD - As you looked out the window and you were looking at the President's car.
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - Did you have a distinct impression as to whether the sound came from your left or from your right?
Mr. JARMAN - I am sure it came from the left.
Representative FORD - But your first reaction, that is was from below.
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - When the second shot came, do you have any different recollection?
Mr. JARMAN - Well, they all sounded just about the same.
Representative FORD - You distinctly recall three shots?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Representative FORD - And at what point did you get up from where you were on your knees in the window?
Mr. JARMAN - When the motorcar picked up speed.
Representative FORD - Was this after what you thought was the third shot?
Mr. JARMAN - The third shot; yes.

Representative FORD - McCloy said you had been in the army 8 years, two 4-year hitches. Was there any doubt in your mind that this was a gunshot, either one of the three?
Mr. JARMAN - Not after the second shot. I didn't have any doubt in my mind then.


I think you do understand perfectly. You are saying there was a shot after the headshot as the car accelerated and was leaving Dealey Plaza. That can only mean the first two shots hit JFK and subsequently JBC. The Zapruder film clearly shows the headshot occurred before the car accelerated.

Altgens only knew of two shots and stated there was no shot after the headshot.

Mr. ALTGENS - Well, it sounded like it was coming up from behind the car from my position--I mean the first shot, and being fireworks--who counts fireworks explosions? I wasn't keeping track of the number of pops that took place, but I could vouch for No. 1, and I can vouch for the last shot, but I cannot tell you how many shots were in between. There was not another shot fired after the President was struck in the head. That was the last shot--that much I will say with a great degree of certainty.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 05, 2019, 05:46:02 PM
I think you do understand perfectly. You are saying there was a shot after the headshot as the car accelerated and was leaving Dealey Plaza.
Where did i state that Jack?
I'm saying there were three shots. You say two. Jarman says three. You quoted him so you must believe him, otherwise why quote him?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 06, 2019, 08:25:46 AM
We know who you think the shooter is. What does this say about your gullibility? Asking me to name the shooter is pretty silly, isn't it? Shouldn't you be more concerned there are no exit wounds on the front of JFK's body? A logical inference from a rear head shot would be that the face would be blown out, right? Instead, there's not a single report from Parkland of an exit wound on the front of the body. The only reports of a rear entry come from Connally's wounds. We also know the SBT is 100% impossible since several witnesses reported Humes' frustration at finding no point of exit for the back wound. If this bullet failed to transit the body, how could it be a threat to Governor Connally? Sorry pal, this annihilates your SBT, but then so does every other shred of evidence in this case. Your turn...
I agree. But think of this. They don't understand logic. That is why they want to talk about  Max Holland's suggestion that a bullet was shot when the car passed under a streetlight post and it was this bullet that missed because  they guess it must of caromed of the interfering streetlight post. Then they try to support Max Holland by trying to suggest that in a couple films where there is evidence of human reaction to gunfire . The problem is  for the idea to be plausible they would have to say a bullet would be moving at 5 mph or the speed of sound is like 5 mph because by the time you see human reaction to gunfire the limo it is like 5 miles from the point that it passed under the post. All this and they can't even prove that any shoots came from the building. i swear next they will say LHO was not seen in the window (we know he wasn't) because he was actually inside one of the boxes. I actually don't believe he was on that floor but even if a person tried to shoot at a passing limo, that limo's passengers would show their a reaction to gunfire way sooner  and not way down the road like they admit
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 06, 2019, 01:15:57 PM
I agree. But think of this. They don't understand logic. That is why they want to talk about  Max Holland's suggestion that a bullet was shot when the car passed under a streetlight post and it was this bullet that missed because  they guess it must of caromed of the interfering streetlight post. Then they try to support Max Holland by trying to suggest that in a couple films where there is evidence of human reaction to gunfire . The problem is  for the idea to be plausible they would have to say a bullet would be moving at 5 mph or the speed of sound is like 5 mph because by the time you see human reaction to gunfire the limo it is like 5 miles from the point that it passed under the post. All this and they can't even prove that any shoots came from the building. i swear next they will say LHO was not seen in the window (we know he wasn't) because he was actually inside one of the boxes. I actually don't believe he was on that floor but even if a person tried to shoot at a passing limo, that limo's passengers would show their a reaction to gunfire way sooner  and not way down the road like they admit

What I have presented is a possible alternative to the bullet missing because it hit the traffic signal. I have cited several additional reasons, that Holland didn't include, in my first post as evidence of an early first shot. The Scearce article explains the reactions of the limo occupants much better than I could. Here is the last paragraph from that article:

The single bullet theory and the rear head shot are settled issues, the forests and terabytes that continue to be consumed debating these subjects notwithstanding. The only remaining major forensic questions concern the missed 1st shot. As to those questions, the Z155–Z157 consensus timing is a millstone. The torch has been passed to original thinkers like Holland and Rush. They are helping uncover what has been “hidden in plain view” for over four decades. The open-minded among us owe them a fair hearing in their journey through the heretofore undiscovered country of the Kennedy assassination towards the final truth.

Do you consider yourself open-minded?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 06, 2019, 02:39:05 PM
(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/mason/slumpwitnesses/Z172ff-slump.png)
"he more or less faced the other side of the street and leaned forward" (see above)

"In slide No. 4 he was looking pretty much toward--straight ahead ...  when the first shot was fired, she turned to the right toward him and he more or less slumped forward" (see above)

Jackie turns from looking to her left to looking to her right in the early Z170s. Willis was very close to Jackie by then and could see this clearly.

(https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/lostbullet/z133-z199/z170.jpg)  (https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/lostbullet/z133-z199/z178.jpg)
(https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z170.jpg)  (https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z178.jpg)

    "When I took slide No. 4, the President was smiling and waving and looking straight ahead,
     and Mrs. Kennedy was likewise smiling and facing more to my side of the street. When the
     first shot was fired, her head seemed to just snap in that direction, and he more or less
     faced the other side of the street and leaned forward"     (WC testimony)

    "Well, after having photographed the President on Main Street and on Houston Street and
     then in front of the Depository Building on Elm Street I cocked my camera for another
     picture and this loud shot went off and the first reaction was that could it be a crank or a
     firecracker but it was so loud and of such a sound it had to be rifle so I became alarmed.
     I was trying to take a picture at the moment and the reflex from the shot caused me to
     take one of these pictures."     (Shaw trial)

Where does she say that?

Not with this:

    "They were gunning the motorcycles; there were these little backfires; there was one noise like that;
     I thought it was a backfire. Then next I saw Connelly grabbing his arms and saying `no no no nonono,'
     with his fist beating--then Jack turned and I turned--all I remember was a blue gray building up ahead;
     then Jack turned back, so neatly; his last expression was so neat; he had his hand out, I could see a
     piece of his skull coming off; it was flesh colored not white--he was holding out his hand--and I can see
     this perfectly clean piece detaching itself from his head; then he slumped in my lap"

Everything specific Rosemary Willis and her parents say is substantiated by the Zapruder film. Phil Willis made a generalization about his most important slide being "instantaneous" with the first shot (or having captured Kennedy's reaction to the first shot which means the first shot occurred before he took his 05 slide). Willis was selling a slide set at the time.

Willis's memory like everyone else did not improve with time and is proven by how much more vague he becomes as time went by. I know you try to pinpoint the first shot by the coordinated movements of the Jackie, JFK, and JBC. The memory recall of these movements and that anyone would note them is sketchy at best. Few people make any statement as to the wounding of JBC at all let alone what he was doing. It is easier to use the statements of the eyewitness and coordinate their common observations. Basically they state they hear the first shot and see JFK react. They also state where this occured on the street by relating it to where they were standing. No one states there was an early missed shot. They all place it in the same general location as Willis with his photo.

Hugh Betzner took a photo slightly before Willis (Z186) and completely corroborates Willis's statement that it was the first shot. Betzner also stated and describes that there were two shots.

Hugh  Betzner 11/22
 "....I took another picture as the President's car was going down the hill on Elm Street. I started to wind my film again and I heard a loud noise. I thought that this noise was either a firecracker or a car had backfired. I looked up and it seemed like there was another loud noise in the matter of a few seconds. I looked down the street and I could see the President's car and another one and they looked like the cars were stopped. Then I saw a flash of pink like someone standing up and then sitting back down in the car. Then I ran around so I could look over the back of a monument and I either saw the following then or when I was sitting back down on the corner of Elm Street. I cannot remember exactly where I was when I saw the following:
I heard at least two shots fired and I saw what looked like a firecracker going off in the president's car. My assumption for this was because I saw fragments going up in the air. ...."

-----------------------------

Jackie hears, what is to her a loud backfire, different than the others. I assume Jackie did not have a great deal of experience with the sound of rifles discharging but she does her best by noting the difference. JBC is wounded at exactly the same time, I am unaware of him having any issues with Tourette's Syndrome and just cries out for no reason. JFK having a piece of his skull separate from his head which would definitely be an indicator of a bullet impact. Her WC statement is definitely more detailed.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 06, 2019, 02:40:44 PM
Where did i state that Jack?
I'm saying there were three shots. You say two. Jarman says three. You quoted him so you must believe him, otherwise why quote him?

Jarman was not lying, he added a shot like so many others. In general it is believed there was not a shot after the headshot. So what is Jarman describing?  Both the WC and the HSCA made statements about the media heavily influencing the witnesses resulting in the inflating of the number of shots.

WC Conclusion: "The eyewitness testimony may be subconsciously colored by the extensive publicity given the conclusion that three shots were fired"

HSCA Conclusion: "they may well inflated the number of shots reported by the suprised witnesses during the assassination" HSCA Earwitness Analysis Report, pgs 135-137

HSCA Conclusion: "The committee believed that the witnesses memories and testimony on the number, direction, and timing of the shots may have
been substantially influenced by the intervening publicity concerning the events of November 22 1963"   HSCA Final Report- pg 87


Your turn. You think Jarman was lying about a second shot headshot and a first shot that wounded both JFK and JBC but you thought it was alright to quote him anyway to make some strange point? Apparently the content of the statement does not matter.  It is just a matter of whether they stated three shots or not.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 06, 2019, 07:01:06 PM
Jarman was not lying, he added a shot like so many others.

You missed out "in my opinion", Jack.

Quote
In general it is believed there was not a shot after the headshot. So what is Jarman describing?  Both the WC and the HSCA made statements about the media heavily influencing the witnesses resulting in the inflating of the number of shots.

WC Conclusion: "The eyewitness testimony may be subconsciously colored by the extensive publicity given the conclusion that three shots were fired"

HSCA Conclusion: "they may well inflated the number of shots reported by the suprised witnesses during the assassination" HSCA Earwitness Analysis Report, pgs 135-137

HSCA Conclusion: "The committee believed that the witnesses memories and testimony on the number, direction, and timing of the shots may have
been substantially influenced by the intervening publicity concerning the events of November 22 1963"   HSCA Final Report- pg 87


Your turn. You think Jarman was lying about a second shot headshot and a first shot that wounded both JFK and JBC but you thought it was alright to quote him anyway to make some strange point? Apparently the content of the statement does not matter.  It is just a matter of whether they stated three shots or not.

My turn o.k.,  but first answer the question I asked you, Jack.
You wrote, "You are saying there was a shot after the headshot as the car accelerated and was leaving Dealey Plaza."

Where did I say that?

I just don't understand why you would quote a witness who disagrees with your conclusion, that there were only two shots. Why do that?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 07, 2019, 08:54:02 AM
What I have presented is a possible alternative to the bullet missing because it hit the traffic signal. I have cited several additional reasons, that Holland didn't include, in my first post as evidence of an early first shot. The Scearce article explains the reactions of the limo occupants much better than I could. Here is the last paragraph from that article:

The single bullet theory and the rear head shot are settled issues, the forests and terabytes that continue to be consumed debating these subjects notwithstanding. The only remaining major forensic questions concern the missed 1st shot. As to those questions, the Z155–Z157 consensus timing is a millstone. The torch has been passed to original thinkers like Holland and Rush. They are helping uncover what has been “hidden in plain view” for over four decades. The open-minded among us owe them a fair hearing in their journey through the heretofore undiscovered country of the Kennedy assassination towards the final truth.

Do you consider yourself open-minded?
If you believe someone's first shot from the window(if that is where it came from) and it hit the streetlight post, then you also would have to say the limo was not below the streetlight
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 07, 2019, 11:55:05 AM
If you believe someone's first shot from the window(if that is where it came from) and it hit the streetlight post, then you also would have to say the limo was not below the streetlight

Peter, the reason why I think the first bullet missed the entire limo and it's occupants is not dependent upon the bullet hitting the traffic signal or it's post. I believe it is more likely that the rifle collided with the cardboard box. And that the collision stopped the tracking motion of the rifle, but the target kept moving. Therefore the bullet simply went into the pavement behind the limo.  (By the way a streetlight is different from a traffic signal. So please use the proper term so people won't get confused.)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Gary Craig on July 07, 2019, 02:11:47 PM
Phil Willis put a time stamp on the first shot by clicking the shutter on his camera when the sound

of that shot startled him.

Mr. WILLIS. No, sir; I took that picture just seconds before the first shot was fired, to get back close up. Then I started down the street, and the regular weekly edition of Life magazine came out and shows me in about three different pictures going down the street. Then my next shot was taken at the very--in fact, the shot caused me to squeeze the camera shutter, and I got a picture of the President as he was hit with the first shot. So instantaneous, in fact, that the crowd hadn't had time to react.

(http://i959.photobucket.com/albums/ae75/garcra/willis%205%20arrow.jpg)

(http://i959.photobucket.com/albums/ae75/garcra/willis%205_1.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 07, 2019, 02:20:49 PM
Peter, the reason why I think the first bullet missed the entire limo and it's occupants is not dependent upon the bullet hitting the traffic signal or it's post. I believe it is more likely that the rifle collided with the cardboard box. And that the collision stopped the tracking motion of the rifle, but the target kept moving. Therefore the bullet simply went into the pavement behind the limo.  (By the way a streetlight is different from a traffic signal. So please use the proper term so people won't get confused.)
That is interesting, especially assuming 3 shots came from that window. So explain at what point did this shooter start this tracking motion with this rifle.

Do you even understand what you are saying? When considering this tracking motion idea of yours it would have to be visible on the Hugh's film,
I mean, we already have Brennan, if you believe his description of a shooter as "did not seem to be in any hurry".

Why not just say this shooter in the middle of this tracking motion decided to stop and light a cigarette for the hell of it

I get it, the rifle collided with the cardboard, the shot is fired, but the bullet hits the pavement and not the intended target. 
Then after this apparent blunder, it is followed by a couple of perfect recovery shots.

Wouldn't that be something? BS: BS: BS:
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 07, 2019, 04:42:03 PM
(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/mason/slumpwitnesses/Z172ff-slump.png)
"he more or less faced the other side of the street and leaned forward" (see above)

"In slide No. 4 he was looking pretty much toward--straight ahead ...  when the first shot was fired, she turned to the right toward him and he more or less slumped forward" (see above)

Jackie turns from looking to her left to looking to her right in the early Z170s. Willis was very close to Jackie by then and could see this clearly.

(https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/lostbullet/z133-z199/z170.jpg)  (https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/lostbullet/z133-z199/z178.jpg)
(https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z170.jpg)  (https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z178.jpg)

    "When I took slide No. 4, the President was smiling and waving and looking straight ahead,
     and Mrs. Kennedy was likewise smiling and facing more to my side of the street. When the
     first shot was fired, her head seemed to just snap in that direction, and he more or less
     faced the other side of the street and leaned forward"     (WC testimony)

    "Well, after having photographed the President on Main Street and on Houston Street and
     then in front of the Depository Building on Elm Street I cocked my camera for another
     picture and this loud shot went off and the first reaction was that could it be a crank or a
     firecracker but it was so loud and of such a sound it had to be rifle so I became alarmed.
     I was trying to take a picture at the moment and the reflex from the shot caused me to
     take one of these pictures."     (Shaw trial)

Where does she say that?

Not with this:

    "They were gunning the motorcycles; there were these little backfires; there was one noise like that;
     I thought it was a backfire. Then next I saw Connelly grabbing his arms and saying `no no no nonono,'
     with his fist beating--then Jack turned and I turned--all I remember was a blue gray building up ahead;
     then Jack turned back, so neatly; his last expression was so neat; he had his hand out, I could see a
     piece of his skull coming off; it was flesh colored not white--he was holding out his hand--and I can see
     this perfectly clean piece detaching itself from his head; then he slumped in my lap"

Everything specific Rosemary Willis and her parents say is substantiated by the Zapruder film. Phil Willis made a generalization about his most important slide being "instantaneous" with the first shot (or having captured Kennedy's reaction to the first shot which means the first shot occurred before he took his 05 slide). Willis was selling a slide set at the time.

This is good. Lots of useless posting trying to obscure the point. You realize there was never an early missed shot or you would not be deliberately misquoting these witnesses in an attempt to give the idea there was one.

Every Z frame is approximately 1 foot of travel

Willis photo The WC thought it was Z210, The HSCA thought it was Z202.

Betzner takes his photo at Z186 and is rewinding the camera and hears the first shot afterwards.

------------------------

Mary Woodward places the shot after Z204, Her reference to 40 yards is after he passes her not before .
Woodward said the earsplitting noise happened after JFK turned forward not before and JFK does not turn forward until Z204+

Mary Woodward
"After acknowledging our cheers, he [JFK] faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-splitting noise coming from behind us and a little to the right."
----------------------
Jean Newman: the first shot occurs after he passes her. The Chisms standing a few yards further down Elm Street  said the first shot occurred  right before them.
------------------------

Jackie is answering the question from Rankin, not describing the wounding of JBC.

Mr. RANKIN. "Do you have any recollection of whether there were one or more shots? is a description of the total number of shots."


Jackie: "Well, there must have been two because the one that made me turn around was Governor Connally yelling"  Jackie in her WC statement dismisses the thought there was three shots and states there was only two

----------------------------

Mrs. KENNEDY. Well, there must have been two because the one that made me turn around was Governor Connally yelling. And it used to confuse me because first I remembered there were three and I used to think my husband didn't make any sound when he was shot. And Governor Connally screamed. And then I read the other day that it was the same shot that hit them both. But I used to think if I only had been looking to the right I would have seen the first shot hit him, then I could have pulled him down, and then the second shot would not have hit him. But I heard Governor Connally yelling and that made me turn around, and as I turned to the right my husband was doing this [indicating with hand at neck]. He was receiving a bullet. And those are the only two I remember.
And I read there was a third shot. But I don't know. Just those two


She could not have been any clearer on that point of two shots vs three shots. She references the medias influence the same as the WC and the HSCA.


Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 07, 2019, 04:44:21 PM
You missed out "in my opinion", Jack.

My turn o.k.,  but first answer the question I asked you, Jack.
You wrote, "You are saying there was a shot after the headshot as the car accelerated and was leaving Dealey Plaza."

Where did I say that?

I just don't understand why you would quote a witness who disagrees with your conclusion, that there were only two shots. Why do that?

In my opinion Ray, while attempting to be clever and despite his conspiracy beliefs, managed to stupidly quote James Jarman in the belief he was quoting a three shot testimony, not realizing he was really endorsing SBT with a second shot as the headshot as described by Jarman. Also in my opinion, Ray seemingly lacks the intestinal fortitude to admit his mistake. Also in my opinion, I doubt Ray has the where with all to realize there really was just two shots.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 07, 2019, 05:30:46 PM
That is interesting, especially assuming 3 shots came from that window. So explain at what point did this shooter start this tracking motion with this rifle.

Do you even understand what you are saying? When considering this tracking motion idea of yours it would have to be visible on the Hugh's film,
I mean, we already have Brennan, if you believe his description of a shooter as "did not seem to be in any hurry".

Why not just say this shooter in the middle of this tracking motion decided to stop and light a cigarette for the hell of it

I get it, the rifle collided with the cardboard, the shot is fired, but the bullet hits the pavement and not the intended target. 
Then after this apparent blunder, it is followed by a couple of perfect recovery shots.

Wouldn't that be something? BS: BS: BS:

Marine infantry training would make a little interference from a box seem like nothing to get worried about.

(https://cached.imagescaler.hbpl.co.uk/resize/scaleWidth/815/cached.offlinehbpl.hbpl.co.uk/news/SUC/2-20170512061223134.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 08, 2019, 01:09:57 AM
Marine infantry training would make a little interference from a box seem like nothing to get worried about.

(https://cached.imagescaler.hbpl.co.uk/resize/scaleWidth/815/cached.offlinehbpl.hbpl.co.uk/news/SUC/2-20170512061223134.jpg)
What a comparison, now I understand how you come up with these ideas that fall out of the range of possibility.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 08, 2019, 08:35:50 AM
In my opinion Ray, while attempting to be clever and despite his conspiracy beliefs, managed to stupidly quote James Jarman in the belief he was quoting a three shot testimony, not realizing he was really endorsing SBT with a second shot as the headshot as described by Jarman. Also in my opinion, Ray seemingly lacks the intestinal fortitude to admit his mistake. Also in my opinion, I doubt Ray has the where with all to realize there really was just two shots.
Ignoring the childish insults, Jack, you don't seem to understand that  Jarman didn't see any of the shots hit the President (His sworn testimony to the W.C.) how could he have seen which hit the President?

His sworn testimony.

"Mr. BALL - How long was it before you ran down to the west end, from the time of the shots until you ran down to the west end, about how much time do you think it was?
Mr. BALL - After the third shot was fired I would say it was about a minute.
Mr. McCLOY You have had military experience, haven't you?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY. And you can recognize rifle shots when you hear them?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - But you didn't hear, you didn't catch the sound of the bolt moving?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - Did you see the President actually hit by the bullets?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir. I couldn't say that I saw him actually hit, but after the second shot, I presumed that he was
, because I had my eye on his car from the time it came down Houston until the time it started toward the freeway underpass.
Mr. McCLOY - You saw him crumple, you saw him fall, did you? Mr. BALL - How long was it before you ran down to the west end, from the time of the shots until you ran down to the west end, about how much time do you think it was?
Mr. BALL - After the third shot was fired I would say it was about a minute.


So Jack's "evidence" that Jarman' second shot was to the head is wrong.  Nowhere does Jarman say the second shot hit the President in the head. He is reported to have said (note NOT actually said)
"he heard a shot and then saw President KENNEDY
move his right hand up to his head. [Throat shot?] After an elapse of three
or four seconds, he heard a second shot and then the vehicle
bearing President KENNEDY speeded up and he was unable to
observe any more about the presidential vehicle. He said a
third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot
possibly within/second or two afterward. He said these shots
sounded to him to be too loud to have been anywhere outside the
TSBD building."

Nowhere does he say he saw a shot hit the President in the head.

So the third shot he heard was the head shot.

So he heard three shots. Q.E.D.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 08, 2019, 11:59:51 AM
What a comparison, now I understand how you come up with these ideas that fall out of the range of possibility.

If you ever wake up to reality, you might understand that they are not only feasible but probable. And that the point I am making is that marines are trained not to loose their composure, and to focus on hitting their targets even under intense attack from the enemy. Therefore a little bump into an unarmed small box with a rifle is not likely to deter one from hitting the target on the next two shots.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Bill Chapman on July 08, 2019, 05:52:52 PM
That is interesting, especially assuming 3 shots came from that window. So explain at what point did this shooter start this tracking motion with this rifle.

Do you even understand what you are saying? When considering this tracking motion idea of yours it would have to be visible on the Hugh's film,
I mean, we already have Brennan, if you believe his description of a shooter as "did not seem to be in any hurry".

Why not just say this shooter in the middle of this tracking motion decided to stop and light a cigarette for the hell of it

I get it, the rifle collided with the cardboard, the shot is fired, but the bullet hits the pavement and not the intended target. 
Then after this apparent blunder, it is followed by a couple of perfect recovery shots.

Wouldn't that be something? BS: BS: BS:

Tell us where in the shooting sequence, other than just after the last shot, Brennan said or even implied that the shooter didn't seem to be in a hurry. Trying to misplace Brennan's words in an attempt to rescue your own quickly-sinking delusions is tantamount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Richard Smith on July 08, 2019, 07:04:52 PM
I think it's hilarious but tragic that people are still trying to "shoehorn" LHO into that window with malicious intent. There are a lot of potential assassins I'd be concerned about, but "Lee Hardly" is not one of them, especially with his unimpressive shooting record and that embarrassing rifle. Virtually every bit of evidence in this case has been tampered with or has a dubious chain of possession. Autopsy witnesses reported bullets and fragments recovered that were never introduced as evidence.



So you are arguing that Oswald was a lousy shot with a bad rifle to demonstrate his innocence in a thread discussing why the first shot missed!  LOL.  I guess the assassin hired by your fantasy conspirators wasn't such a great shot either.

 No one will ever know exactly why Oswald's first shot missed.  Perhaps he tunnel visioned his first shot into the path of the tree because he was looking through the scope.  His target moved under cover of the tree when he fired the shot causing either a deflection or miss because he lost sight of JFK.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 08, 2019, 07:18:30 PM
That is interesting, especially assuming 3 shots came from that window. So explain at what point did this shooter start this tracking motion with this rifle.

Do you even understand what you are saying? When considering this tracking motion idea of yours it would have to be visible on the Hugh's film,
I mean, we already have Brennan, if you believe his description of a shooter as "did not seem to be in any hurry".

Why not just say this shooter in the middle of this tracking motion decided to stop and light a cigarette for the hell of it

I get it, the rifle collided with the cardboard, the shot is fired, but the bullet hits the pavement and not the intended target. 
Then after this apparent blunder, it is followed by a couple of perfect recovery shots.

Wouldn't that be something? BS: BS: BS:

When considering this tracking motion idea of yours it would have to be visible on the Hugh's film

Thank you for pointing this out. It gave me incentive to investigate this further. I believe that it is visible on the Hugh's film.

A view of the sniper's window from Hughes' position as generated by my mock-up should give us an idea of what it should look like just before Z133:

(https://i.vgy.me/w1YyrA.png)


Here is a stabilized clip of the end of the segment of Hughe's film that includes the beginning of the tracking motion (but still is still about two seconds before when I believe the first shot was made):

(https://i.vgy.me/2bMxHc.gif)

P.S. This clip from the Hughes film is one that I downloaded a number of years ago. I don't remember who created it. But it was probably someone from this forum. So if you recognize it, please let me know who created it so I can properly credit them.

Here is an enlarged portion of the last frame in that clip:

(https://i.vgy.me/hs0dmV.jpg)

The rifle can be seen in approximately the same position and at a similar angle to what is seen in the mock-up image. The sniper's left arm appears in the lower right corner of the window, similar to what is seen in the mock-up image.

If you use a program to view the Hughes film clip (like irfanview) which allows you to enlarge the clip and watch the motion at the same time, you can see that the rifle isn't there at the beginning of the clip but appears near the end. This is the sniper tracking the target.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 09, 2019, 12:56:10 AM
If you ever wake up to reality, you might understand that they are not only feasible but probable. And that the point I am making is that marines are trained not to loose their composure, and to focus on hitting their targets even under intense attack from the enemy. Therefore a little bump into an unarmed small box with a rifle is not likely to deter one from hitting the target on the next two shots.
Reality? The problem is your idea is not probable and it is not even possible based on the information you presented. I did not know the assassin had an enemy I thought the assassin had a target. Did JFK have a weapon? Was the assassin more of a sniper or a soldier in combat. You could take you general ideas of marine and say it had to be Oswald.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Mytton on July 09, 2019, 02:45:58 AM
Reality? The problem is your idea is not probable and it is not even possible based on the information you presented. I did not know the assassin had an enemy I thought the assassin had a target. Did JFK have a weapon? Was the assassin more of a sniper or a soldier in combat. You could take you general ideas of marine and say it had to be Oswald.

Quote
Did JFK have a weapon?

Maybe? But what we do know is that the SS agents were packing some serious weaponry.

(https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/v7iLMeqTtbc-9KFnumrvAGyyaSM=/1400x932/smart/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HD362SB5CREDRJUTBOQEUT3SAM.jpg)

JohnM
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 09, 2019, 04:57:44 AM
Ignoring the childish insults, Jack, you don't seem to understand that  Jarman didn't see any of the shots hit the President (His sworn testimony to the W.C.) how could he have seen which hit the President?

His sworn testimony.

"Mr. BALL - How long was it before you ran down to the west end, from the time of the shots until you ran down to the west end, about how much time do you think it was?
Mr. BALL - After the third shot was fired I would say it was about a minute.
Mr. McCLOY You have had military experience, haven't you?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY. And you can recognize rifle shots when you hear them?
Mr. JARMAN - Yes, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - But you didn't hear, you didn't catch the sound of the bolt moving?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir.
Mr. McCLOY - Did you see the President actually hit by the bullets?
Mr. JARMAN - No, sir. I couldn't say that I saw him actually hit, but after the second shot, I presumed that he was
, because I had my eye on his car from the time it came down Houston until the time it started toward the freeway underpass.
Mr. McCLOY - You saw him crumple, you saw him fall, did you? Mr. BALL - How long was it before you ran down to the west end, from the time of the shots until you ran down to the west end, about how much time do you think it was?
Mr. BALL - After the third shot was fired I would say it was about a minute.


So Jack's "evidence" that Jarman' second shot was to the head is wrong.  Nowhere does Jarman say the second shot hit the President in the head. He is reported to have said (note NOT actually said)
"he heard a shot and then saw President KENNEDY
move his right hand up to his head. [Throat shot?] After an elapse of three
or four seconds, he heard a second shot and then the vehicle
bearing President KENNEDY speeded up and he was unable to
observe any more about the presidential vehicle. He said a
third shot was heard- by-him closely following the second shot
possibly within/second or two afterward. He said these shots
sounded to him to be too loud to have been anywhere outside the
TSBD building."

Nowhere does he say he saw a shot hit the President in the head.

So the third shot he heard was the head shot.

So he heard three shots. Q.E.D.

A little reminder of  your original shot count. The second shot preceded the "People falling on the ground and the car jumped forward." This is the exact description of the headshot followed by the car accelerating and leaving Dealey Plaza. Then, according to Jarman, there was the third shot. The car accelerating to go to Parkland after the headshot is a basic fact of the assassination. In fact the car slowing prior to the headshot is a Conspiracy wet dream. The only shot left is the first shot which wounded both JFK and JBC. Uh Oh that would mean Jarman is describing SBT. Jarman must be your worst night mare. Do you ever think this stuff through before you post it?

Mitcham: "Mr. JARMAN - A backfire or an officer giving a salute to the President. And then at that time I didn't, you know, think too much about it. And then the second shot (two)was fired, and that is when the people started falling on the ground and the motorcade car jumped forward, and then the third shot (three)was fired right behind the second one."
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Nessan on July 09, 2019, 05:10:37 AM
Willis thought his 05 slide matched Z226. That's why he claimed his most-commercial slide showed Kennedy had been hit and was reacting to the first shot.

He's definitely not looking down and winding his camera prior to Z207. So no tie to him hearing a shot at Z202. Could be looking down and winding his camera by Z223.

    "The car proceeded down Elm, and when it was about 40 yards
     from us, we heard the first noise"

She says "from us" not "pass us". This means the car was approaching her.

(https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z153.jpg)  (https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z162.jpg)

The "first" of two shots Newman has a recollection of would have to occur much later than Z202 if she was accurate about the President having passed her.

The Chisms likewise could only recall two shots, the head shot and what I believe to be the shot before that. From their same-day affidavits, the "first" shot supposedly struck the President. Mr. Chism said:

    "And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved at the crowd on this
     side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot"

(https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z133-z199/z170.jpg)  (https://sites.google.com/site/lightboxzframes/mpi/z200-z249/z200.jpg)

Kennedy waves through the Z200s and beyond. JFK is more "in front of me" at Z223 than Z202.

In my opinion, many of the "two shots" witnesses could have heard three shots and have a recollection of just two. Seems many of them (ie: Bretzner) acknowledge the possibility of a third shot. The "three shots" witnesses seem more sure of the count.

The early media reports claimed Kennedy was struck on the first shot. This may have influenced many, including Mrs. Connally.

The WC placed the Willis photo at Z210. The HSCA placed it at Z202.
-----------------------------------------

Woodward:
 "The car proceeded down Elm, and when it was about 40 yards
     from us, we heard the first noise"

She says "from us" not "pass us". This means the car was approaching her.

No

Woodward:
After acknowledging our cheers, he [JFK] faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-splitting noise coming from behind us and a little to the right. My first reaction, and also my friends', was that as a joke someone had backfired their car. Apparently, the driver and occupants of the President's car had the same impression, because instead of speeding up, the car came almost to a halt...I don't believe anyone was hit with the first bullet. The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they, too, didn't believe the noise was really coming from a gun...Then after a moment's pause, there was another shot and I saw the President start slumping in the car. This was followed rapidly by another shot. Mrs. Kennedy stood up in the car, turned halfway around, then fell on top of her husband’s body…

Woodward was very clear the shot happened after JFK acknowledged her and her friends and then turned forward again which equates to Z204+

40 yards away? They are half a football field away and he "acknowledges" them? That is a stretch.

---------------------------------------------

The early media reports claimed Kennedy was struck on the first shot. This may have influenced many, including Mrs. Connally.

Acknowledging the medias influence? This is new, but apparently the influence is limited to only about who was wounded and when? Maybe you better rethink that one.

----------------------------------------------------

In my opinion, many of the "two shots" witnesses could have heard three shots and have a recollection of just two. Seems many of them (ie: Bretzner) acknowledge the possibility of a third shot. The "three shots" witnesses seem more sure of the count.

They can't count to two but they can count to three? These people supposedly remember the exact movements of JFK, Jackie, and JBC but they can't recall how many shots they heard and the subsequent reactions.
"




Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 09, 2019, 05:44:37 AM
Maybe? But what we do know is that the SS agents were packing some serious weaponry.

(https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/v7iLMeqTtbc-9KFnumrvAGyyaSM=/1400x932/smart/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HD362SB5CREDRJUTBOQEUT3SAM.jpg)

JohnM
Were they an enemy? They were drunk
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 09, 2019, 11:17:06 AM
Maybe? But what we do know is that the SS agents were packing some serious weaponry.

(https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/v7iLMeqTtbc-9KFnumrvAGyyaSM=/1400x932/smart/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HD362SB5CREDRJUTBOQEUT3SAM.jpg)

JohnM

If he had tried to take a shot at JFK while they were approaching the TSBD on Houston Street, chances are good that the sniper would have been spotted and shots fired back at him. Waiting for the limousine to start down Elm Street was part of a good ambush plan.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 09, 2019, 07:09:46 PM
The rifle can be seen in approximately the same position and at a similar angle to what is seen in the mock-up image. The sniper's left arm appears in the lower right corner of the window, similar to what is seen in the mock-up image.

Where?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 09, 2019, 09:18:31 PM
If he had tried to take a shot at JFK while they were approaching the TSBD on Houston Street, chances are good that the sniper would have been spotted and shots fired back at him. Waiting for the limousine to start down Elm Street was part of a good ambush plan.
Who is "he"? It could've been "she". Whoever it was got away, but the credit was given to some guy name Oswald
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 09, 2019, 11:03:09 PM
When considering this tracking motion idea of yours it would have to be visible on the Hugh's film

Thank you for pointing this out. It gave me incentive to investigate this further. I believe that it is visible on the Hugh's film.

A view of the sniper's window from Hughes' position as generated by my mock-up should give us an idea of what it should look like just before Z133:

(https://i.vgy.me/w1YyrA.png)


Here is a stabilized clip of the end of the segment of Hughe's film that includes the beginning of the tracking motion (but still is still about two seconds before when I believe the first shot was made):

(https://i.vgy.me/2bMxHc.gif)

P.S. This clip from the Hughes film is one that I downloaded a number of years ago. I don't remember who created it. But it was probably someone from this forum. So if you recognize it, please let me know who created it so I can properly credit them.

Here is an enlarged portion of the last frame in that clip:

(https://i.vgy.me/hs0dmV.jpg)

The rifle can be seen in approximately the same position and at a similar angle to what is seen in the mock-up image. The sniper's left arm appears in the lower right corner of the window, similar to what is seen in the mock-up image.

If you use a program to view the Hughes film clip (like irfanview) which allows you to enlarge the clip and watch the motion at the same time, you can see that the rifle isn't there at the beginning of the clip but appears near the end. This is the sniper tracking the target.
Look at the stabilized clip of Hugh's film you see the SS follow- up car turning on to Elm Street. Now place the Prez limo in front of the follow-up car and it would be very close to crossing the area under the arm/post holding the traffic light.  if someone was in the 6th fl window how were they positioned exactly at the time Hugh's film cuts out, because I don't see anything. When you zoom in on any of these pictures you can see whatever you want to see. Sometimes I, unfortunately, see Oprah Winfrey but I blink and I know it was not her.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 10, 2019, 03:47:57 PM
Where?

Right where I described and showed in the mock-up image. I see it best when using irfanview https://www.irfanview.com/ (https://www.irfanview.com/). Just download the clip, open it with irfanview, click on the magnifying glass with the plus sign about 12 times. The rifle shows up near the end of the clip pointing down at a similar angle to the rifle in the mock-up image. Also what appears to be his left arm appears in the lower (camera) right corner of the window.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 10, 2019, 07:49:20 PM
Right where I described and showed in the mock-up image. I see it best when using irfanview https://www.irfanview.com/ (https://www.irfanview.com/). Just download the clip, open it with irfanview, click on the magnifying glass with the plus sign about 12 times. The rifle shows up near the end of the clip pointing down at a similar angle to the rifle in the mock-up image. Also what appears to be his left arm appears in the lower (camera) right corner of the window.

I did exactly that.  And I don't see either of those things in the resulting grainy, pixelated image.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 10, 2019, 09:47:22 PM
I did exactly that.  And I don't see either of those things in the resulting grainy, pixelated image. 

Iacoletti,

Well I guess that settles it then doesn't it.

But then again, you're the one who couldn't see the glasses on your very own Betzner-3 "Glasses Woman".

LOL

-- MWT   ???
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 10, 2019, 09:56:26 PM
Well I guess that settles it then doesn't it.

But then again, you're the one who couldn't see the glasses on your very own Betzner-3 "Glasses Woman".

Lots of people claim to see lots of things in pictures and films.  We now even have a guy posting about "seeing" multiple gunmen behind the pergola in the Moorman photo.

Most of these people are as equally arrogant as Tommy with his "I see it, therefore it's a fact" arguments.  Which impresses exactly nobody.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 11, 2019, 12:30:10 AM
I did exactly that.  And I don't see either of those things in the resulting grainy, pixelated image.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I probably would have fallen out of my chair if you had said you did see something!  ;)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 11, 2019, 05:21:49 AM
I probably would have fallen out of my chair if you had said you did see something!  ;)
Are you going to fall down when you realize you don't see anything either? If you lay down before you look at it again you at least will not fall down
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 11, 2019, 03:30:39 PM
I probably would have fallen out of my chair if you had said you did see something!  ;)

I think that it there was really something there, other people would have seen it years ago.  Walt insists that he sees a rifle sticking out of the window in the Powell photo.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 11, 2019, 04:50:26 PM
I think that it there was really something there, other people would have seen it years ago.  Walt insists that he sees a rifle sticking out of the window in the Powell photo.

One study concluded that there is some movement in the window. Another says that there isn’t. Either way, it doesn’t exclude the theory of the boxes interfering with the shot.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 11, 2019, 05:49:47 PM
One study concluded that there is some movement in the window. Another says that there isn’t. Either way, it doesn’t exclude the theory of the boxes interfering with the shot.

Agreed.  Whether or not there was a "first missed shot" and when it may have occurred is pretty tenuous to begin with, so lots of speculation abounds.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 11, 2019, 07:13:04 PM
(https://i.vgy.me/iDdiIc.jpg)

The above is a frame from the Dorman film. As you can see Rosemary Willis is running and is about to run behind two men standing at the curb who look like they have cameras. Does anyone know if one of these two men is Phil Willis just before taking his slide #4?

Edit: Never mind, my error. They both are clapping and do not appear to have cameras. Phil Willis was a little further west when he took slide #4, then moved a little further west to take slide #5.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 11, 2019, 10:21:55 PM
I think that it [sic] there was really something there, other people would have seen it years ago.  Walt insists that he sees a rifle sticking out of the window in the Powell photo.

Like, if the world was round, someone would have proved it before Magellan and Elcano sailed around it?

--MWT  ;)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 11, 2019, 10:56:53 PM
Like, if the world was round, someone would have proved it before Magellan and Elcano sailed around it?

No, it's more like somebody today saying that the world looks flat to him, therefore it must be flat.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 12:06:06 AM
No, it's more like somebody today saying that the world looks flat to him, therefore it must be flat.

The creation of my 3D mock-up gave me a new tool. For the first time, I was able to see what some things should have looked like from various angles. I had seen the Hughes clip before but didn't have an accurate idea of what to look for. The movement (reportedly detected in an earlier study) happens to be in the same area of the window where I now believe, thanks to the mock-up, that the rifle would be (if he were tracking the motion of the limo at that point in time). So, armed with a better idea of what I should be looking for, I believe I now see something that resembles the rifle.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 12, 2019, 02:50:06 AM
The creation of my 3D mock-up gave me a new tool. For the first time, I was able to see what some things should have looked like from various angles. I had seen the Hughes clip before but didn't have an accurate idea of what to look for. The movement (reportedly detected in an earlier study) happens to be in the same area of the window where I now believe, thanks to the mock-up, that the rifle would be (if he were tracking the motion of the limo at that point in time). So, armed with a better idea of what I should be looking for, I believe I now see something that resembles the rifle.

Charles,

I complement you on your discovery.

I hope some day someone more gifted with "computers" than I will be able to isolate or "bring out" the two horizontal stripes in Gloia Calvery's skirt as she's standing on a TSBD lower step in the Darnell part of Couch-Darnell.

-- MWT  ;)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Mytton on July 12, 2019, 03:24:10 AM
The creation of my 3D mock-up gave me a new tool. For the first time, I was able to see what some things should have looked like from various angles. I had seen the Hughes clip before but didn't have an accurate idea of what to look for. The movement (reportedly detected in an earlier study) happens to be in the same area of the window where I now believe, thanks to the mock-up, that the rifle would be (if he were tracking the motion of the limo at that point in time). So, armed with a better idea of what I should be looking for, I believe I now see something that resembles the rifle.

From a copy of The Lost Bullet, here is the Hughes digitized film and I can definitely see something move into position in the sniper's nest window which corresponds with the position in your 3d graphic.  Thumb1:

The following graphic suffers from the usual gif restrictions but even in this copy from a copy from a copy, movement can be seen.

(https://i.postimg.cc/Dw0GhdkW/hughes-osw-ald-windowa.gif)

(https://i.postimg.cc/y8nB0djc/hughes-osw-ald-windowc.gif)

@ about 40:00


JohnM
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Mytton on July 12, 2019, 06:12:28 AM
(http://i59.tinypic.com/xfumi8.jpg)  (http://i61.tinypic.com/cqdxe.jpg)

There is some "grain noise" altering the registration on the film. That is normal for 8-mm film. What's happening in the SN window is significantly more than that.

I agree with John M. that there is movement in the open area of the SN window.

Seems primarily over the boxes by the window sill rather than between the boxes and the east-side window frame.

This particular Hughes sequence, per Myers, stops 13.16 sec before the head shot. About 3.3 sec before Z133 or 4.6 sec before Z157.

(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/myers/filmsync/film-sync-05.jpg)

Quote
There is some "grain noise" altering the registration on the film. That is normal for 8-mm film. What's happening in the SN window is significantly more than that.

Agreed.

JohnM
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 12:22:53 PM
Charles,

I complement you on your discovery.

I hope some day someone more gifted with "computers" than I will be able to isolate or "bring out" the two horizontal stripes in Gloia Calvery's skirt as she's standing on a TSBD lower step in the Darnell part of Couch-Darnell.

-- MWT  ;)

Thanks Thomas, yes we all want more details of exactly what took place. It is amazing that we have as many details as we do. But some of them just bring up more questions.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 01:15:10 PM
From a copy of The Lost Bullet, here is the Hughes digitized film and I can definitely see something move into position in the sniper's nest window which corresponds with the position in your 3d graphic.  Thumb1:

The following graphic suffers from the usual gif restrictions but even in this copy from a copy from a copy, movement can be seen.

(https://i.postimg.cc/Dw0GhdkW/hughes-osw-ald-windowa.gif)

(https://i.postimg.cc/y8nB0djc/hughes-osw-ald-windowc.gif)

@ about 40:00


JohnM

Another great post John, thanks. Both Holland and Dale Myers believe that the sniper was standing for the first shot due to the sharp angle and subsequent box interference with the view. I believe that it is more likely that he was sitting on the box on the floor for all three shots. And that without any practice shots, the sniper didn't realize the boxes would interfere (until they did). And I believe that is the most likely explanation for missing the entire limo from that angle and distance (not hitting the traffic signal).

Here are a couple of images showing where the sniper would have to be positioned (in the little cubbyhole between the stacks of boxes) in order to have an unobstructed view through the window opening of the limo, at that point in time, if he were standing.

(https://i.vgy.me/aT8cYi.png)


(https://i.vgy.me/wpZHcY.png)

That space is a tight squeeze with no room for maneuvering. Not a likely spot to fire from in my opinion.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 12, 2019, 01:16:31 PM
It is amazing that we have as many details as we do. But some of them just bring up more questions.

Charles,

Yes!

For example, my and Sandy Larsen's discovery of Gloria Calvery in Zapruder and in Couch-Darnell a couple of years ago raises the question:

"With whom was Calvery speaking at the base of the TSBD steps 20-to-30 seconds after the final shot -- Billy Lovelady, or Joe Molina?"

-- and --

"Is Gloria Calvery the gal Frazier was referring to when he said, in so many words, "A gal who had been farther down on Elm Street come by and bellowed out that JFK had been shot."

-- MWT  ;)

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 12, 2019, 01:38:21 PM
Thanks John, it appears to me that the photo of the actual sniper's nest was taken after the boxes had been moved for fingerprinting and then put back. And it appears to me that they positioned them closer to the center of the window than they originally were. The photos of the reenactment in Max Holland's mock-up, with the guy kneeling, don't include the box that the sniper was sitting on. My contention is that that box would be in the way of his lower legs and feet in that kneeling position. Here are a few photos to illustrate my point.


This first one shows a top (plan) view of the sniper's nest. The box he was sitting on is about 16.5" from the south wall, as indicated in Day's testimony. The 3 boxes just inside the window are positioned closer to the east than in your photo. This agrees with the Dillard telephoto photograph taken seconds after the last shot. The result is that there is very little room between the sitting box and the other boxes for someone to kneel without some interference.

(https://i.vgy.me/u7VWZB.jpg)

This one includes the sniper sitting on the box and leaning forward. It is the position that is used for the view from Brennan's position. If the sniper sits straight up he is out of view from Brennan's position. And the sniper has a view of all three of the positions of the limo for shots at: just before Z133, Z225, and Z313 without moving much at all.

(https://i.vgy.me/6XkwuD.jpg)

Finally, Max Holland says in his program that the box the sniper was sitting on was in about the position in this photo. However it was actually much closer as I have shown above. And Max appears to be sitting on two boxes, so he was much higher than the sniper.

(https://i.vgy.me/Laylaa.png)

Charles,

Please explain (or rephrase) how you've shown that the "sitting box" was much closer to the window than Holland believes it was.

Thanks.

-- MWT  ;)

Edit:  nm

I understand, now.

Question:  Do you believe Holland's analysis of how the cartridge casings ended up where the did is valid?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 01:50:25 PM
(http://i59.tinypic.com/xfumi8.jpg)  (http://i61.tinypic.com/cqdxe.jpg)

There is some "grain noise" altering the registration on the film. That is normal for 8-mm film. What's happening in the SN window is significantly more than that.

I agree with John M. that there is movement in the open area of the SN window.

Seems primarily over the boxes by the window sill rather than between the boxes and the east-side window frame.

This particular Hughes sequence, per Myers, stops 13.16 sec before the head shot. About 3.3 sec before Z133 or 4.6 sec before Z157.

(https://sites.google.com/site/jfkforum/misc/myers/filmsync/film-sync-05.jpg)

Yes, it is close enough to the point in time that the sniper would be tracking the limo and getting ready to fire.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Duncan MacRae on July 12, 2019, 01:56:06 PM
Four frames extracted from John's Gif, cropped and given a slight contrast adjustment.

The two frames, which appear to show a figure with a Rifle, have red letters marked over them.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/window4frames.gif)

One single frame which appears to show the figure with a Rifle.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/windowstillframe1.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 12, 2019, 02:08:12 PM
Four frames extracted from John's Gif, cropped and given a slight contrast adjustment.

The two frames, which appear to show a figure with a Rifle, have red letters marked over them.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/window4frames.gif)

One single frame which appears to show the figure with a Rifle.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/windowstillframe1.jpg)

Thanks, Duncan.

I wish (John's?) red letters weren't there to obscure what we're looking at.

-- MWT   ::)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Duncan MacRae on July 12, 2019, 02:21:50 PM
Thanks, Duncan.

I wish (John's?) red letters weren't there to obscure what we're looking at.

-- MWT   ::)

The red markings are on the "The Lost Bullet" enhanced film.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 02:39:58 PM
Charles,

Please explain (or rephrase) how you've shown that the "sitting box" was much closer to the window than Holland believes it was.

Thanks.

-- MWT  ;)

Edit:  nm

I understand, now.

Question:  Do you believe Holland's analysis of how the cartridge casings ended up where the did is valid?

Do you believe Holland's analysis of how the cartridge casings ended up where the did is valid?

I believe that Holland showed one possibility, that is reasonable. However, I wish they had also tested using the similar rifle angle that would have occurred, with the rifle aimed at the limo position at that point in time, from the lower sitting position on the box. If the shot did miss due to box interference, I imagine that the sniper would have been a little frustrated. And that when he pulled the bolt back to reload, he might have used more force than normal due to that frustration. Which might have caused the shell to travel further than it would have otherwise.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 02:41:52 PM
Four frames extracted from John's Gif, cropped and given a slight contrast adjustment.

The two frames, which appear to show a figure with a Rifle, have red letters marked over them.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/window4frames.gif)

One single frame which appears to show the figure with a Rifle.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/windowstillframe1.jpg)

Wow!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 12, 2019, 03:04:42 PM
Wow!

Just wondering ...

Did Thierry "Fake News" Speth have anything to do with the creation of the "enhanced" images on the DVD?

-- MWT  ;)

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 03:08:25 PM
Just wondering ...

Did Thierry "Fake News" Speth have anything fo do with the creation of the "enhanced" images on the DVD?

-- MWT  ;)

If this is for real, it makes one wonder why it wasn't seen before.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Mytton on July 12, 2019, 03:40:09 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/TPKn8JVC/hughes-film.jpg)

JohnM
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 07:17:04 PM
Four frames extracted from John's Gif, cropped and given a slight contrast adjustment.

The two frames, which appear to show a figure with a Rifle, have red letters marked over them.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/window4frames.gif)

One single frame which appears to show the figure with a Rifle.

(https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/windowstillframe1.jpg)

Duncan, I saved John's Gif file to my computer, opened it with irfanview, and extracted all frames. I got 122 frames, of which the first 26 are blanks (black). Frames #67 and #68 are the two frames with the apparent rifle and red letters. The remaining frames don't include them. And the last frame appears to be the start of a fade-in to the next scene in the program (with a computer screen). So the two frames appear very briefly right in the middle of this scene. This reminds me somewhat of subliminal advertising, in which we were supposedly exposed to advertising without even knowing it, that we were told about back when I was still in school. I sure would like to find out if this "subliminal suggestion" is something that the producers of "The lost Bullet" have done. Or if this is something that is real.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on July 12, 2019, 07:38:18 PM
Nice work.  The black line seems too wide to be a rifle barrel.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Bill Chapman on July 12, 2019, 09:11:32 PM
The barrel seems blurred in proportion to the frame blur, but the stock doesn't seem to be. Therefore my enthusiasm, as to the 'rifle' being same, remains curbed.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 09:28:35 PM
The barrel seems blurred in proportion to the frame blur, but the stock doesn't seem to be. Therefore my enthusiasm, as to the 'rifle' being same, remains curbed.

I believe that is due to the contrast added by Duncan. Here is a copy of the first frame with the rifle that doesn't have any contrast added:

(https://i.vgy.me/jJKnjh.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Thomas Graves on July 12, 2019, 10:37:45 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/b3mumf.jpg)

The slanted object in the window is an artifact from the morphing "restoration" of assassination films done for "JFK: The Lost Bullet".

In trying to eliminate the blotches caused by heat damage to the Hughes film, they used a process to smooth out the sharp edges. Ironically, a slanted rifle-like object appears in the window about where one might expect it to be if there was a rifle there. It's still quite a find for something briefly-appearing in an animation.

I find "The Lost Bullet" restoration worked well for motion transitions and eliminated much of the blur and damage. The restorations just don't stand up to frame-by-frame analysis.

I guess the evil, evil, evil FBI, by "intentionally" destroying those frames, was just trying to cover up something that wasn't there.

(sarcasm)

-- MWT  ;)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 12, 2019, 11:29:45 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/b3mumf.jpg)

The slanted object in the window is an artifact from the morphing "restoration" of assassination films done for "JFK: The Lost Bullet".

In trying to eliminate the blotches caused by heat damage to the Hughes film, they used a process to smooth out the sharp edges. Ironically, a slanted rifle-like object appears in the window about where one might expect it to be if there was a rifle there. It's still quite a find for something briefly-appearing in an animation.

I find "The Lost Bullet" restoration worked well for motion transitions and eliminated much of the blur and damage. The restorations just don't stand up to frame-by-frame analysis.

Very ironic, thanks Jerry!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Bill Chapman on July 13, 2019, 10:12:03 PM
Very ironic, thanks Jerry!

Charles, I just don't trust these 'enhancements'
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 13, 2019, 10:32:34 PM
Charles, I just don't trust these 'enhancements'

Yes it looks a little off, but close enough to make one wonder...
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 14, 2019, 10:13:18 AM
Wow!
I see a musket and a stick boy
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 14, 2019, 11:13:43 AM
I see a musket and a stick boy

What happened to Oprah?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Mike Orr on July 15, 2019, 03:40:43 AM
Because Malcolm Wallace was not a very good shot . It took Malcolm Wallace to start bludgeoning Henry Marshall with a blunt object and then shoot Marshall " 5 " times with the victims own rifle and then he pumped him full of Carbon monoxide from his truck and then he dumped his body on his own land . Corrupt Sheriff Howard Stegall immediately ruled it a suicide which was quickly confirmed by the Justice of the peace , Lee Farmer who saw no pictures of the victim . What was Malcolm Wallace's fingerprint doing on the 6th floor on a box in the snipers lair ? Nathan Darby had a 34 point match on the print which belonged to Mac Wallace !
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Peter Kleinschmidt on July 15, 2019, 03:57:55 AM
What happened to Oprah?
Easy to see, the problem with the other idea of a figure or gun  is if you look and believe it is a barrel there is white color there before and after  distorting  everything  around the edge of the windows whether open or closed  then the object which has no proportionality  looks like a crude attempt to tamper with the film. Zoom in other windows long enough and you will see all sorts of things

Zapruder film sprocket is as strange as you get  at the top of the County records building


Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Chris Davidson on July 15, 2019, 06:44:38 AM
Hughes stabilized.

Not a valid vimeo URL
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 17, 2019, 12:04:51 AM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/jkwumq.jpg)

In my model, the strike point for the Max Holland/Lost Bullet theory is on the outer arm of the traffic light assembly.

The seated shooter's left hand would have to hold the rifle with the trigger-guard housing to be clear of the pipes. Also the center of the rifle butt-plate is about four inches above the un-artictulated right shoulder. Unless the right shoulder rises some distance while pointing a rifle down, the shooter would have to standing.

This is academic as there is too much against a first shot as early as Max Holland has proposed.

Nice work Jerry! Yes, I agree, Max Holland's theory appears to be a little early. Could you please give me the locations and dimensions of the pipes that you have come up with so that I may add them to my model? It could be that the left arm bumped the pipes during the tracking motion. And that that caused the shot to miss (in lieu of the boxes). Also, do you have an idea of the timing of Willis' slide #4? It appears to me that it is in the vicinity of Z133. Perhaps a little later. Thanks.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on July 19, 2019, 11:05:03 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/2saeyz9.jpg)

Sorry, Charles. I haven't forgotten your request. My placement of the pipes is a visual guess. Obviously use at own risk.

I sent the Sixth Museum a request for measurements, and the curator, who's really helpful, told me just now that he will get back to me with true measurements when they access that area for maintenance. I'll PM those to you when I get them. Meanwhile you can use what I am using or build off it.

The westward pipe is a simple vertical. As I have it, the total height of the coupling is 3 1/4". I have the bottom of the coupling 8 13/16" above the floor (just make it 8 3/4" or 9", whatever). The coupling doesn't interfere with a hypothetical shooter; I put the coupling in there for the sake of completeness and haven't bothered with the bolts.

For the east pipe, I drew straight lines and angled them and placed them where I thought the center of the pipe ran. I then used SketchUp's "Follow-Me" tool to create the pipe by having a 2" circle follow the "path" of the lines. The Sketchup Tool decided I needed two elbows at each of the two bends. The closest any part of the first bend is to the floor is 13".

There is something wrong with my measurements. If the pipes are 2", then the planks have to be about 3". Or the planks are correct and the pipes needs to be a bit wider. Anyway, the key is how the westward pipe is relative to the window's masonry opening, which I think is fairly close now. That's the pipe that interferes.

Thanks Jerry! Yes I have communicated several times with Stephen Fagin at the sixth floor museum and he has been very helpful each time. He is the one to contact regarding the oral history collection.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Denis Pointing on July 20, 2019, 12:59:52 AM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/2saeyz9.jpg)

Sorry, Charles. I haven't forgotten your request. My placement of the pipes is a visual guess. Obviously use at own risk.

I sent the Sixth Museum a request for measurements, and the curator, who's really helpful, told me just now that he will get back to me with true measurements when they access that area for maintenance. I'll PM those to you when I get them. Meanwhile you can use what I am using or build off it.

The westward pipe is a simple vertical. As I have it, the total height of the coupling is 3 1/4". I have the bottom of the coupling 8 13/16" above the floor (just make it 8 3/4" or 9", whatever). The coupling doesn't interfere with a hypothetical shooter; I put the coupling in there for the sake of completeness and haven't bothered with the bolts.

For the east pipe, I drew straight lines and angled them and placed them where I thought the center of the pipe ran. I then used SketchUp's "Follow-Me" tool to create the pipe by having a 2" circle follow the "path" of the lines. The Sketchup Tool decided I needed two elbows at each of the two bends. The closest any part of the first bend is to the floor is 13".

There is something wrong with my measurements. If the pipes are 2", then the planks have to be about 3". Or the planks are correct and the pipes needs to be a bit wider. Anyway, the key is how the westward pipe is relative to the window's masonry opening, which I think is fairly close now. That's the pipe that interferes.

Hi Jerry, builder here, so I may be able to help. Most floorboards, 'planks' as you call them, are 6" wide, those look like soil/main drain pipes, not water pipes so they're going to be 4" diameter. These measurements are confirmed by the bricks, ie 3no vertical courses are approximately 8". Nice work, mate.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: James Hackerott on July 20, 2019, 03:36:04 AM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/2saeyz9.jpg)

Sorry, Charles. I haven't forgotten your request. My placement of the pipes is a visual guess. Obviously use at own risk.

I sent the Sixth Museum a request for measurements, and the curator, who's really helpful, told me just now that he will get back to me with true measurements when they access that area for maintenance. I'll PM those to you when I get them. Meanwhile you can use what I am using or build off it.

The westward pipe is a simple vertical. As I have it, the total height of the coupling is 3 1/4". I have the bottom of the coupling 8 13/16" above the floor (just make it 8 3/4" or 9", whatever). The coupling doesn't interfere with a hypothetical shooter; I put the coupling in there for the sake of completeness and haven't bothered with the bolts.

For the east pipe, I drew straight lines and angled them and placed them where I thought the center of the pipe ran. I then used SketchUp's "Follow-Me" tool to create the pipe by having a 2" circle follow the "path" of the lines. The Sketchup Tool decided I needed two elbows at each of the two bends. The closest any part of the first bend is to the floor is 13".

There is something wrong with my measurements. If the pipes are 2", then the planks have to be about 3". Or the planks are correct and the pipes needs to be a bit wider. Anyway, the key is how the westward pipe is relative to the window's masonry opening, which I think is fairly close now. That's the pipe that interferes.
Hi Jerry and Charles,

Please allow me to submit my 3D work of the Snipper's Nest. The bent pipe was always a problem to model until I discovered, in the POV-Ray software, a procedure named “sphere_sweep” - very similar to your description of SketchUp's “Follow-Me” tool.  I use a 2” diameter for both pipes, basically because that looks right. I'm eager to learn Steven Fagan's results if you would kindly share those. Attached is an animated GIF with and without a box-sitting Virtual Action Figure posed for  ~Z225. All checker board surfaces use 3” squares. The center of the west pipe 42” west of the east wall and 7” from the south wall. Oddly placed shadows are due to use of an overhead lamp to improve visibility. The 3D model is under construction, and always will be. FIW
James
(https://i.imgur.com/3QoOBSW.gif)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Mytton on July 20, 2019, 04:25:06 AM

 Thumb1:

Who says we can't learn something new 50+ years later.
Keep it up boys and keep posting these awesome 3D visual aids.

JohnM
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 20, 2019, 09:47:32 AM
Hi Jerry, builder here,

A jerry builder who admits it. Very honest of you Denis. ;)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Denis Pointing on July 20, 2019, 11:05:33 AM
A jerry builder who admits it. Very honest of you Denis. ;)

You're showing your age using that expression Ray and I'm showing mine by knowing what it means. lol Would 'jerry builder' be classed as racist in these PC times?  :D
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Denis Pointing on July 20, 2019, 11:57:25 AM
Your suggestion as to purpose made me wonder if the pipes could be for dry-venting. I think the pipes were put in after the building was built; they look so unplanned. They seem to go through the ceiling on the seventh floor. Doesn't the seventh floor seem high? I suppose pre-AC, some top floors in Texas had the extra height for ventilation.

Jerry, found the following:
"The original building at the corner of Elm and Houston, in Dallas, was built by the Rock Island Plow Company in 1898. Three years later the building was struck by lightning, nearly burned to the ground, and was rebuilt the following year. There were now 7 floors in the building, each with about 10,000 square feet, and a basement. The building was constructed with single wall and single floor construction. Single wall construction is where a single layer of wood is attached to one side of an exterior wall. Single floor construction is where boards are attached to the top side of floor joists with nothing attached to the bottom side of the floor joist. Today, modern buildings are "double wall" construction, and have layers of material attached to both sides of the walls and ceilings. In most cases, the second layer of material is sheet rock.
In early 1963 the 60-year old building underwent extensive remodeling and was refurbished with new interior walls, partitions, updated lighting, plumbing, sprinkler systems and, perhaps the most important improvement, air conditioning."
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 20, 2019, 02:10:07 PM
You're showing your age using that expression Ray and I'm showing mine by knowing what it means. lol Would 'jerry builder' be classed as racist in these PC times?  :D

Not racist, if you mean in the sense of Gerry (as in german) built as I believe the meaning comes from "Jury built" as in a jury sail, a temporary sale rigged up in an emergency.

You're right about age , the kids on here have probably never heard the expression. Thumb1:
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Denis Pointing on July 20, 2019, 02:28:51 PM
Not racist, if you mean in the sense of Gerry (as in german) built as I believe the meaning comes from "Jury built" as in a jury sail, a temporary sale rigged up in an emergency.

You're right about age , the kids on here have probably never heard the expression. Thumb1:

I don't believe anyone's 100% sure of the original meaning. But during WW2 the expression certainly took on a whole new meaning. England, particularly London, was being blitzed by the German's almost every night, most builders were away fighting, so emergency repairs were carried out by men and sometimes even women who were not qualified, so the work was generally under-par. These workers became known as Jerry or Gerry builders. As you know, Gerry/Jerry was British slang for German. There, a little history lesson for the 'kids' here. lol

PS Sorry, no more off-topic. I promise.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Ray Mitcham on July 20, 2019, 03:18:05 PM
I don't believe anyone's 100% sure of the original meaning. But during WW2 the expression certainly took on a whole new meaning. England, particularly London, was being blitzed by the German's almost every night, most builders were away fighting, so emergency repairs were carried out by men and sometimes even women who were not qualified, so the work was generally under-par. These workers became known as Jerry or Gerry builders. As you know, Gerry/Jerry was British slang for German. There, a little history lesson for the 'kids' here. lol

PS Sorry, no more off-topic. I promise.

Just to correct your little history lesson, Jerry. The term "jerry built" has been in use since the 19th century.

"The phrases 'jerry built'/'jerry building'/'jerry builder' have been around since at least 1869, when 'jerry built' was defined in the Lonsdale Glossary:
"Jerry-built, slightly, or unsubstantially built."
By 1901, the term began to be used figuratively - a sure sign of acceptance into the general language; for example, The Daily Chronicle, in August that year printed this opinion:
"In an age of jerry-built books it is refreshing to come across a volume that has taken forty years to compile."
The derivation is unknown. What we do know is that the term has nothing to do with the UK slang term for German - Jerry/Gerry. This is of WWI origin and the citations above pre-date that. As always when a phrase's origin is unknown people like to guess, so here goes. It is possible that the term derives from the slang term jerrycummumble or jerrymumble. This was defined in the 1811 version of Francis Grose's Classical Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue:
"JERRYCUMMUMBLE. To shake, towzle, or tumble about."


(just for info. Over and out)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: James Hackerott on July 21, 2019, 08:05:46 PM
________

If we can do without the vertical measurements for the coupling and east pipe bends, and where the east pipe is, I'll ask Stephen to go to the seventh floor and, if he has access, measure only the west pipe from the east wall and south wall, and the width of the pipe (working with 2" for now). Maybe some floorboards are visible so he can get their width. Any of that would be representative of the sixth floor.
I'm not sure those pipes are still present on the seventh floor. I took photos and video from the seventh floor SE window pair in 2014 (yes, you can photograph on the seventh but not sixth floor). You may need to copy and paste this link in a browser window. Just a thought, would you request to Stephen he measure the circumfrance of the pipes with a tape measure? 

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1h9EeeYbSd4P9lsnIG1NOdoCy3A7wGB3n

I don't recall noting the pipes, but I wasn't looking for them either. This video captured views from the western window and shifted to views from the eastern window. There was a large potted plant positioned in front of the center mullion. The video is very dark inside the building. An enhanced frame below shows the most likely frame that could have captured the pipes, if present. It could be the camera just did not sweep enough to pickup them up. I do doubt those pipes would be accessible to any visitor.
(https://i.imgur.com/3XerFzx.jpg)

I also can't remember if the seventh floor is carpeted but I think it was. While looking at my videos for evidence of carpet I found video where I recorded the FBI's model of the TSBD. I did not see carpet, but did notice three dark slat like features in the floor. Possibly, the original floor slats? If so, the FBI model was cordoned off, just to the right of the hallway connecting the elevator to the seventh floor and accessible to all. Maybe Stephen could see if those are of any value.
(https://i.imgur.com/27aHrYz.png)

James
 
 
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on September 16, 2019, 07:06:15 PM
Sniper Nest measurements from Stephen Fagin.

  • Circumference of pipe = 7”
  • Width of floorboard = 3.25”
  • Corner to edge of brick at window = 33”

Corner --> Southeast interior corner.
Brick at window --> east edge of window's masonry opening.
 

Thanks Jerry! And thanks to Stephen Fagin for obtaining and sharing the measurements! The pipe is 2.23” in diameter if my arithmetic is correct! 😎
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: James Hackerott on September 17, 2019, 02:02:15 AM
Sniper Nest measurements from Stephen Fagin.

  • Circumference of pipe = 7”
  • Width of floorboard = 3.25”
  • Corner to edge of brick at window = 33”

Corner --> Southeast interior corner.
Brick at window --> east edge of window's masonry opening.
 
Thank you Jerry and Stephen for sharing. It's much appreciated! I'm going to re-calibrate my eyeballs now ;D.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: James Hackerott on November 04, 2019, 12:25:31 AM
I had a great three and half days in Dealey Plaza this past week as an early birthday present. One unexpected find was the remnants of the pipes on the 7th floor. I had a tape measure so took these photos.  I also coincidentally met Stephen Fagin and thanked him for his help with Jerry's request. I also found out it is okay to photograph on the sixth floor also, just no flash on sixth or seventh. I got lots of photos of the glassed in SN display.

Edit - See reply #154 for an updated image.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on November 04, 2019, 01:48:54 AM
I had a great three and half days in Dealey Plaza this past week as an early birthday present. One unexpected find was the remnants of the pipes on the 7th floor. I had a tape measure so took these photos.  I also coincidentally met Stephen Fagin and thanked him for his help with Jerry's request. I also found out it is okay to photograph on the sixth floor also, just no flash on sixth or seventh. I got lots of photos of the glassed in SN display.

(https://i.imgur.com/GFkioOK.jpg)

Very cool James! I see four circular items that could be cut off ends of pipes. Could you please explain what we are seeing in the photo? And I am looking forward to seeing your photos of the sixth floor sniper’s nest display!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: James Hackerott on November 04, 2019, 03:06:14 AM
The image is over sized and may not be displaying fully. There two images on the top of collage. The first is a closeup of the pipe that would be the curved pipe from below. The ~2 in pipe is centered about 10” from the South wall. Just above and touching the pipe appears to be chipped cement or other material slightly mounded over the pipes and is chipped to form that irregular shape. The photo on top right would be the straight pipe from below. The bottom photo is rotated 90 degrees and shows the measures from the East wall.

I get roughly for the
straight pipe center 36” from East wall
straight pipe center 11.5” from South wall
bent pipe center 27.5” from East wall
bent pipe center  10” from South wall

Here is a full resolution view of the bent pipe and chip. Top edge is South. I don't think that chip contains a pipe edge, but I did not think at the time to check it closer.
(https://i.imgur.com/61W50by.png)

For the SN pic many may be suitable for 3D anaglyphs. If you don't have a pair of cyan/red 3D glasses you might find some on Amazon pretty cheap. I wear glasses and found a pair of cyan/red clip-ons that work really well for me.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on November 04, 2019, 10:50:00 AM
The image is over sized and may not be displaying fully. There two images on the top of collage. The first is a closeup of the pipe that would be the curved pipe from below. The ~2 in pipe is centered about 10” from the South wall. Just above and touching the pipe appears to be chipped cement or other material slightly mounded over the pipes and is chipped to form that irregular shape. The photo on top right would be the straight pipe from below. The bottom photo is rotated 90 degrees and shows the measures from the East wall.

I get roughly for the
straight pipe center 36” from East wall
straight pipe center 11.5” from South wall
bent pipe center 27.5” from East wall
bent pipe center  10” from South wall

Here is a full resolution view of the bent pipe and chip. Top edge is South. I don't think that chip contains a pipe edge, but I did not think at the time to check it closer.
(https://i.imgur.com/61W50by.png)

For the SN pic many may be suitable for 3D anaglyphs. If you don't have a pair of cyan/red 3D glasses you might find some on Amazon pretty cheap. I wear glasses and found a pair of cyan/red clip-ons that work really well for me.

Thanks, now I understand. I was viewing this on my phone, which probably didn’t help (due to the small screen).
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: James Hackerott on November 04, 2019, 02:52:32 PM
The image is over sized and may not be displaying fully. There two images on the top of collage. The first is a closeup of the pipe that would be the curved pipe from below. The ~2 in pipe is centered about 10” from the South wall. Just above and touching the pipe appears to be chipped cement or other material slightly mounded over the pipes and is chipped to form that irregular shape. The photo on top right would be the straight pipe from below. The bottom photo is rotated 90 degrees and shows the measures from the East wall.

I get roughly for the
straight pipe center 36” from East wall
straight pipe center 11.5” from South wall
bent pipe center 27.5” from East wall
bent pipe center  10” from South wall

Here is a full resolution view of the bent pipe and chip. Top edge is South. I don't think that chip contains a pipe edge, but I did not think at the time to check it closer.
(https://i.imgur.com/61W50by.png)

For the SN pic many may be suitable for 3D anaglyphs. If you don't have a pair of cyan/red 3D glasses you might find some on Amazon pretty cheap. I wear glasses and found a pair of cyan/red clip-ons that work really well for me.
I revised and corrected the annotation for the bottom image.. This should make it easier of others, and myself too, to visualize.

(https://i.imgur.com/HyxwpZT.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on January 06, 2020, 02:26:33 PM
I found more corroboration of the first shot occurring before z-160 in the account of Clint Grant, photographer for Dallas Morning News. He was in camera car #2. In his 1993  c-span video description he said the as the car rounded the corner of Main and Houston the shots began. The camera car #2 was exiting the corner onto Houston Street at approximately z-133. This timing agrees with the other evidence that I have provided earlier in this thread...
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Marjan Rynkiewicz on February 10, 2021, 08:53:59 AM
(https://images2.imgbox.com/8a/22/24RPI7zo_o.jpg)

In my model, the strike point for the Max Holland/Lost Bullet theory is on the outer arm of the traffic light assembly.

The seated shooter's left hand would have to hold the rifle with the trigger-guard housing to be clear of the pipes. Also the center of the rifle butt-plate is about four inches above the un-artictulated right shoulder. Unless the right shoulder rises some distance while pointing a rifle down, the shooter would have to standing.

This is academic as there is too much against a first shot as early as Max Holland has proposed.
Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Dan O'meara on February 10, 2021, 09:30:21 AM
Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.
Hi Marjan,

You say at z203 " two standing agents are starting to look back to Oswald"

Below is a close up of z207, four frames after z203. It's the last frame we see most of the agents in. I'm sure you'll agree that not one is looking back towards the TSBD, so I don't understand where you are getting the idea from that they are looking back:

(https://i.postimg.cc/rFVMWyXq/z207-2.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

From your notes can you reveal where you are getting the idea from there is a shot before z133.

Oh yeah...I asked you before to explain why none of the agents has reacted to a loud, explosive noise for over four seconds. What are your ideas on that?

Thought you might like to clear these points up  Thumb1:
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Marjan Rynkiewicz on February 10, 2021, 10:13:06 AM
Thought you might like to clear these points up  Thumb1:
Yes i did answer in your other thread. The Agents were confused etc.
Anyhow if u are correct that the first shot was later then there would still be a long delay to say Z255 if that is when the Altgen-6 pix is taken.
Conversely if u are correct then there would have to be a very short delay of say 3.0 sec (which is less than an acceptable say 5.0 sec) tween shot1 at say Z??? & shot2 at say Z218 (some say i think Z222).
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 13, 2023, 07:42:35 PM
I revised and corrected the annotation for the bottom image.. This should make it easier of others, and myself too, to visualize.

(https://i.imgur.com/HyxwpZT.jpg)



(https://images2.imgbox.com/81/89/AcVi0O2c_o.jpg)

Sorry, Charles. I haven't forgotten your request. My placement of the pipes is a visual guess. Obviously use at own risk.

I sent the Sixth Museum a request for measurements, and the curator, who's really helpful, told me just now that he will get back to me with true measurements when they access that area for maintenance. I'll PM those to you when I get them. Meanwhile you can use what I am using or build off it.

The westward pipe is a simple vertical. As I have it, the total height of the coupling is 3 1/4". I have the bottom of the coupling 8 13/16" above the floor (just make it 8 3/4" or 9", whatever). The coupling doesn't interfere with a hypothetical shooter; I put the coupling in there for the sake of completeness and haven't bothered with the bolts.

For the east pipe, I drew straight lines and angled them and placed them where I thought the center of the pipe ran. I then used SketchUp's "Follow-Me" tool to create the pipe by having a 2" circle follow the "path" of the lines. The Sketchup Tool decided I needed two elbows at each of the two bends. The closest any part of the first bend is to the floor is 13".

There is something wrong with my measurements. If the pipes are 2", then the planks have to be about 3". Or the planks are correct and the pipes needs to be a bit wider. Anyway, the key is how the westward pipe is relative to the window's masonry opening, which I think is fairly close now. That's the pipe that interferes.



I am trying to visualize the west conduit only, not concerned with the east conduit at this time. If I understand the meaning of your measurements, the west conduit would be slanting slightly away from the south wall as it rises towards the seventh floor. The difference being about 3-1/2” further away from the south wall at the top (9-1/8” minus the 5-5/8” at the 6th floor). It also appears to slant away from the east wall slightly by about 2-7/8” (34-7/8” minus the 32” estimate by Jerry). All of my estimated distances are to the nearest outside surfaces to the respective walls. Does the above seem to be reasonably accurate given the information that we currently have? Please let me know. Thanks!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Marjan Rynkiewicz on March 14, 2023, 08:21:36 PM
Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.
My above feb2021 wordage was early in my jfk accidental homicide study. I need to bring things up to date.
Today i know that Oswald's shot-1 was at about pseudo Z112, & ricocheted offa the western guyrod of the signal arm at Z113.
Holland said Z103 i think -- i am happy to split the difference.
Holland i think reckoned a ricochet offa the actual signals.
Today i know that the present owner of the original signals (Christopher) wrote that there is no bullet hole or dent in the signals.
Today i know that the main remnant slug of shot-1 made a keyhole shaped hole in the floor of the limo -- between the Connally's jumpseats.
Today i know that the lead splatter hit jfk in the top back right of his head (vizible in xrays).
Re my wordage that Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218 -- today i reckon it was at Z215-216, & hit jfk & Connally at Z218-219.
Hickey's accidental autoburst of at least 4 shots of his AR15 was at say Z300-Z312 -- hit jfk's head at Z312-313.

Re the pipes at the SN affecting Oswald's shot-1 -- i think the pipes might have affected his shot-2 moreso than his shot-1.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on March 21, 2023, 03:02:52 AM
The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 21, 2023, 04:02:16 PM
The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.


The most stable position (by far) available at that location would have been sitting on box D and using the Rolling Readers box on top of box C as a support for his left forearm. Based on my experiments, the western most pipe (electrical conduit) would have been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). The corner of the other Rolling Readers box that was sitting on the window ledge would have also been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). While sitting on box D neither the conduit or the corner of the window box should have been a factor for a shot much later than ~Z133.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on March 22, 2023, 11:35:08 PM
Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Joe Elliott on March 23, 2023, 12:00:00 AM

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 23, 2023, 12:54:42 PM
Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo



Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

The steep angle to the Z133 location does (from a sitting position) put the corner of the window sill box in the way. Max Holland proposes a standing position for an early shot. However, a sitting position with support for the left arm is much more stable. And I find it hard to believe that the assassin would intentionally switch from a standing position to a sitting position during the few seconds available to him to fire the rifle. I don’t believe that he had an opportunity to practice his intended shots while holding the rifle because this would have potentially been seen by the spectators below on the street and given his intentions away before he could execute them.

When I discovered the interference from the box corner with my 3D computer model, my first thoughts were that he was probably tracking the target with his rifle (to get it aimed properly) and the corner of the box interfered, causing an inadvertent shot to miss badly. And that is why I started this thread a long time ago. Lately, I have been experimenting further and have some interesting thoughts that I plan to share soon. So, stay tuned…
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 23, 2023, 12:56:30 PM
On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376


Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 23, 2023, 03:26:58 PM
In this photo, do the two arrows point to the "crease" on the box that some people thought might have been made to support the rifle while aiming?

(https://i.vgy.me/IIe9iG.png)


Or, was there another "crease" or dent elsewhere on one of the boxes that could be what those people were describing?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Joe Elliott on March 27, 2023, 05:44:05 AM


Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 27, 2023, 11:53:38 AM
Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.


While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason.

The angular velocity is certainly a reason that the target could be missed. However, I find it impossible to believe that angular velocity could alone cause someone with LHO’s rifle training and abilities to miss the limo entirely. I believe that interference of some sort had to be involved.



Here is your description of the running deer competition with a sentence highlighted by me:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.

The target had an outline of a life size deer, with three concentric circles. The inner circle would could for 4 points. The next circle for 3. And the outermost circle for 2. A shot outside the largest circle, but on the outline of the deer (but not the rear part of the deer) would count as 1 point.

My father once told me, that in deer hunting, you don’t want to hit the rear of the deer. This would allow the deer to still get away but would wound it seriously enough that it would likely die in the coming days. Better to miss the deer altogether than to do that. Hence, I would guess, the somewhat strange scoring system.

Everyone would get a single shot (in the Single Shot competition) during a 4 second pass and would get 10 shots altogether.

The speed of the target was 18.75 feet per second or 12.8 mph. This is pretty slow. At 67 years old, I could run faster than that. I’m certain a real deer would run well over 30 mph. I suspect that they did not use real running deer solely for humane reasons.

Still, these were shots designed to test the best rifle shooters, at moving targets, in the world. So, I imagine they were pretty challenging.

In the real competition, the winner got 25 points, with several others just behind. So, an average shot would end up either in the “2” circle or the “3” circle. This competition appears to have been challenging because the three lowest scores were 11, 6 and 3 points.

The Angular velocity of the 1908 target varied from 3.21 to 3.26 degrees per second. Let’s compare this to the angular velocity of possible shots at Dealey Plaza. All the shots are listed from the highest to the lowest angular velocities:

The following chart lists:
     Angular Velocity of the Target, in degrees per second (dps),
     Tangential Velocity of the Target, in feet per second (fps),
     Distance to the Target, in feet (ft)


                                       Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man   at z-312:    6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke         at z-312:    5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft
TSBD position                   at z-153:    4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft

TSBD position                   at z-222:    1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                   at z-312:    0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Obviously, Oswald was attempting a shot at z-153, with a higher angular velocity, than the best shooters in the world in 1908 had to attempt. No wonder he missed the limousine. A shot from the Grassy Knoll would have even been tougher, at least the target would have had an even higher angular velocity.

Admittedly, the Angular Velocity does not take into account distances. Perhaps a superior comparison is from the Tangential Velocity of the Target. So the following chart as the previous, except it is ordered by the Tangential Velocity:


                                                        Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft
TSBD position                  at z-153:     4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man  at z-312:     6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke        at z-312:     5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft

TSBD position                  at z-222:     1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                  at z-312:     0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Either by using Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity, the two shots that hit from Oswald’s position are clearly the easiest of shots.

The 1908 data is not totally satisfactory. It does not give the size of the scoring circles. Nor the size of the outline of the deer and exactly which part of this outline was out of bounds. Still, it’s the best I have found. And the rifles available in 1908 would be roughly equivalent of Oswald’s Carcano rifle. If anyone has any data that is as good or better I would be interested in seeing a post to it. Particularly one that would show if Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity is a better measure of difficulty for shots under 200 yards.


I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on March 27, 2023, 09:31:20 PM
If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 28, 2023, 12:03:34 AM
If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?


Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

If he was sitting on the box, and sitting up straight, he would be hidden from view by the Hughes camera, Brennan, Edwards, and Fischer. Brennan testified that he appeared to leave the window for a short time (several times). I suggest that he was simply sitting up straight.



He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

Simply leaning forward, while still seated, and lifting the rifle from his lap area (which would be out of sight to people in the plaza) to his shoulder and begin to track and aim. Either Edward or Fischer (or both) testified they saw him leaning forward. So, it appears to me that he was still seated on the box (and leaning forward) as the motorcade was entering Dealey Plaza.



In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Yes, it absolutely could have happened that way. An accidental discharge can happen to anybody. We have a bullet hole in our dining room table, chair, and floor (patched) to prove it. It was an accidental discharge that happened to a gunsmith (also a gun safety instructor and professional outdoorsman) who we have known since school days. He was helping us sell some guns that my wife inherited. And he was told that the gun was loaded. So, I have no doubt that it could have happened to the assassin.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Joe Elliott on March 28, 2023, 04:44:46 AM

I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?

I don't know. But all of the competitors had practice at shooting at a moving target. So even if the answer is zero for the 1908 Olympic competitors, Oswald might miss by more than any of them. He had training at shooting at stationary targets. So Oswald, I would believe, could hit a moving target with a slow angular velocity, like at z-222 or z-312. But Oswald might miss by five feet or more at a high angular velocity target at z-153, which could miss the limousine, since JFK was not sitting in the center of the limousine.

In any case, if anyone can find statistics on what good shooters can do with a high angular velocity shot, of 3.2 degrees per second or higher, at distances of 129 feet, or 75 feet, I would like to hear them. And not just assume that at 75 feet, one is so close, one is bound to hit a human size target, even without being able to aim properly. I don't buy that notion.

in 1950, when an attempt was made on Truman's life, Secret Service agents were firing several shots at the main would be assassin from ranges of around 30 to 40 feet. Using handguns. And all of them missing. Except for one morally wounded policeman who got a fatal hit on the assassin from 40 feet away.

When firing under difficult conditions, like using a handgun, or using a rifle on a target with too high an angular velocity, it's not easy to hit a human size target. At 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Or even 40 feet. Misses are quite possible.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 28, 2023, 01:21:56 PM
The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

I don't know. But all of the competitors had practice at shooting at a moving target. So even if the answer is zero for the 1908 Olympic competitors, Oswald might miss by more than any of them. He had training at shooting at stationary targets. So Oswald, I would believe, could hit a moving target with a slow angular velocity, like at z-222 or z-312. But Oswald might miss by five feet or more at a high angular velocity target at z-153, which could miss the limousine, since JFK was not sitting in the center of the limousine.

In any case, if anyone can find statistics on what good shooters can do with a high angular velocity shot, of 3.2 degrees per second or higher, at distances of 129 feet, or 75 feet, I would like to hear them. And not just assume that at 75 feet, one is so close, one is bound to hit a human size target, even without being able to aim properly. I don't buy that notion.

in 1950, when an attempt was made on Truman's life, Secret Service agents were firing several shots at the main would be assassin from ranges of around 30 to 40 feet. Using handguns. And all of them missing. Except for one morally wounded policeman who got a fatal hit on the assassin from 40 feet away.

When firing under difficult conditions, like using a handgun, or using a rifle on a target with too high an angular velocity, it's not easy to hit a human size target. At 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Or even 40 feet. Misses are quite possible.

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet

I am only questioning your calculations of the running deer Olympic shots. Here is why:
 
From your post:

“1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft”

Yet the description you posted from Wikipedia clearly states the targets were at 75-feet.


But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

Why would you assume that he couldn’t keep the sights lined up on a moving target? I have read that LHO was a member of a shooting club in Russia. And that they could only own shotguns (no rifles). I don’t claim to know what type of shooting they did with their shotguns. But a common and popular type of shooting was at “clay pigeons”. Also called skeet shooting or trap shooting depending on the specifics of how it was set up. Hitting a 110 mm diameter flying target at various and unpredictable angles of flight requires considerable shooting skills and quick reactions. Here is an exerpt regarding LHO’s reaction speed from page 211 of Robert Oswald’s book “Lee” that I find interesting:

I have some idea of the speed of Lee’s reflexes, both from my general observation of him while we were growing up and specifically because of a game we used to play. Sometimes Lee and I would walk up to each other and fake an unexpected punch, to test each other’s reactions. I discovered from this game that Lee had very rapid reflexes.

LHO reportedly delighted in situations where he could “try to prove” his self-perceived “superiority”. I can imagine that his “very rapid reflexes” would have come in handy during any shooting activities he might have had in the shooting club in Russia. Whether they were shooting at birds or rabbits or skeet or whatever, he most likely would have done well shooting at moving targets.

Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963. There is no doubt that the higher angular velocity of an early shot from the sniper’s nest in Dealey Plaza would have made it a much more challenging shot than the two shots that hit JFK. But, again, I think it would have taken more than just that to cause it to miss the limo entirely.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Gerry Down on March 28, 2023, 08:40:05 PM
Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963.

Marina only said he was dry firing the weapon, not that he was pointing it at cars.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 29, 2023, 11:51:21 AM
Marina only said he was dry firing the weapon, not that he was pointing it at cars.


From page 1004 (of my Kindle version) of “Reclaiming History” by Vincent Bugliosi:

One evening at the end of August Marina returned from a twilight stroll with June and found Lee on their screened-in side porch, kneeling on one knee, aiming his rifle into the street and working the bolt—dry firing. 1365.

Footnote 1365. ​1 H 21–22, WCT Marina N. Oswald; McMillan, Marina and Lee, pp.451–452; CE 1154, 22 H 190.

I don’t remember if someone else wrote that there were actually passing cars in the street in New Orleans in 1963, or if I just assumed that. Either way, Marina did say that he spent a lot of time doing this on the darkened porch. If anyone wants to think that he didn’t aim at any passing cars during that time, that is their prerogative. But I have a differing opinion.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Gerry Down on March 29, 2023, 06:27:58 PM

From page 1004 (of my Kindle version) of “Reclaiming History” by Vincent Bugliosi:

One evening at the end of August Marina returned from a twilight stroll with June and found Lee on their screened-in side porch, kneeling on one knee, aiming his rifle into the street and working the bolt—dry firing. 1365.

Footnote 1365. ​1 H 21–22, WCT Marina N. Oswald; McMillan, Marina and Lee, pp.451–452; CE 1154, 22 H 190.

I don’t remember if someone else wrote that there were actually passing cars in the street in New Orleans in 1963, or if I just assumed that. Either way, Marina did say that he spent a lot of time doing this on the darkened porch. If anyone wants to think that he didn’t aim at any passing cars during that time, that is their prerogative. But I have a differing opinion.

Interesting.

Though from that porch, which is recessed back off the house, I'm not sure how long he'd be able to track each car as it passed in the street.

It would make an interesting experiment to see how many seconds would he have to track each car before his view of each car became obstructed by the corners of the houses to his left and right on his side of the street.

I'd imagine cars would be traveling slow enough on that street.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 30, 2023, 01:43:52 AM
Interesting.

Though from that porch, which is recessed back off the house, I'm not sure how long he'd be able to track each car as it passed in the street.

It would make an interesting experiment to see how many seconds would he have to track each car before his view of each car became obstructed by the corners of the houses to his left and right on his side of the street.

I'd imagine cars would be traveling slow enough on that street.


Yes, the field of view was limited and the speed of the cars would be varied. So the available time to track the cars would be varied also. I think that this would be a challenge that LHO would like. It would be similar to the challenge of skeet or trap shooting. Testing and practicing of LHO’s very fast reflexes (described by Robert Oswald) comes to mind for this challenge. He would have to react quickly to acquire the moving target in his sights and pull the trigger (dry firing) before the car left the field of view. I don’t see how he could have anticipated that this practice would come in handy on 11/22/63. But it sure seems to me that it did.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on March 30, 2023, 05:12:05 AM
From page 1004 (of my Kindle version) of “Reclaiming History” by Vincent Bugliosi:

One evening at the end of August Marina returned from a twilight stroll with June and found Lee on their screened-in side porch, kneeling on one knee, aiming his rifle into the street and working the bolt—dry firing. 1365.

Footnote 1365. ​1 H 21–22, WCT Marina N. Oswald; McMillan, Marina and Lee, pp.451–452; CE 1154, 22 H 190.

This is why you should always check primary sources. 22H190 says nothing about Oswald doing this. And Marina’s testimony says nothing about dry firing.

Mrs. OSWALD. No. I know for sure that he didn't. But I know that we had a kind of a porch with a---screened-in porch, and I know that sometimes evenings after dark he would sit there with his rifle. I don't know what he did with it. I came there by chance once and saw him just sitting there with his rifle. I thought he is merely sitting there and resting. Of course I didn't like these kind of little jokes.
. . .
Mr. RANKIN. You have described your husband's practicing on the hack porch at New Orleans with the telescopic scope and the rifle, saying he did that very regularly there.
Did you ever see him working the bolt, that action that opens the rifle, where you can put a shell in and push it back- during those times?
Mrs. OSWALD. I did not see it, because it was dark, and I would be in the room at that time.
But I did hear the noise from it from time to time not often.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 30, 2023, 11:13:01 AM
This is why you should always check primary sources. 22H190 says nothing about Oswald doing this. And Marina’s testimony says nothing about dry firing.

Mrs. OSWALD. No. I know for sure that he didn't. But I know that we had a kind of a porch with a---screened-in porch, and I know that sometimes evenings after dark he would sit there with his rifle. I don't know what he did with it. I came there by chance once and saw him just sitting there with his rifle. I thought he is merely sitting there and resting. Of course I didn't like these kind of little jokes.
. . .
Mr. RANKIN. You have described your husband's practicing on the hack porch at New Orleans with the telescopic scope and the rifle, saying he did that very regularly there.
Did you ever see him working the bolt, that action that opens the rifle, where you can put a shell in and push it back- during those times?
Mrs. OSWALD. I did not see it, because it was dark, and I would be in the room at that time.
But I did hear the noise from it from time to time not often.


This is why you should always check primary sources. 22H190 says nothing about Oswald doing this. And Marina’s testimony says nothing about dry firing.

You should always check the primary claim. My statement says nothing about Marina testifying to this. And, you very conveniently left out Bugliosi’s other listed source (“Marina and Lee”) indicated in his footnote.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on March 30, 2023, 02:20:09 PM
This is why you should always check primary sources. 22H190 says nothing about Oswald doing this. And Marina’s testimony says nothing about dry firing.

You should always check the primary claim. My statement says nothing about Marina testifying to this. And, you very conveniently left out Bugliosi’s other listed source (“Marina and Lee”) indicated in his footnote.

It’s Bugliosi’s claim, and he cited Marina’s testimony. And no, “Marina and Lee” says nothing about dry firing either.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on March 30, 2023, 02:40:31 PM
(http://iacoletti.org/jfk/marina-and-lee-p452.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 30, 2023, 03:20:47 PM
It’s Bugliosi’s claim, and he cited Marina’s testimony. And no, “Marina and Lee” says nothing about dry firing either.


It doesn’t matter who’s claim it is. My claim only says that LHO reportedly did this. If you don’t like that Bugliosi reported it. That’s your freaking problem.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on March 30, 2023, 03:47:14 PM
It doesn’t matter who’s claim it is. My claim only says that LHO reportedly did this. If you don’t like that Bugliosi reported it. That’s your freaking problem.

Your problem is believing (and passing on) a fabricated claim from Bugliosi.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 30, 2023, 04:37:57 PM
Your problem is believing (and passing on) a fabricated claim from Bugliosi.


If you want to dispute Bugliosi, that is fine. But you can do it without insinuating that I said something that I didn’t.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on March 30, 2023, 05:04:10 PM
No need to get defensive. You said “LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans”, and all I said is that people should check primary sources (especially for things that Bugliosi “reports”).
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 30, 2023, 05:20:24 PM
No need to get defensive. You said “LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans”, and all I said is that people should check primary sources (especially for things that Bugliosi “reports”).


I believe you said “this is why you should check…”. Or something like that. I use words like “reportedly” and terms like “it appears to me” to appease your apparent sensitivity to anyone making any kind of assumption whatsoever. It doesn’t matter how well reasoned the assumption might be, you object (unless, of course, it points away from LHO’s guilt). So when, after I use such language, you still insinuate that I said something that I didn’t, I have a legitimate gripe.

Go waste someone else’s time…
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Joe Elliott on March 30, 2023, 08:35:21 PM
The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet

I am only questioning your calculations of the running deer Olympic shots. Here is why:
 
From your post:

“1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft”

Yet the description you posted from Wikipedia clearly states the targets were at 75-feet.

No. the link I provided was:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_meter_running_deer

which states:

Quote
1908 was the first time of running deer at the Olympics, and the target was specified to placed at 110 yards[citation needed] (100.584 meters) and made 10 runs of 75 feet (23 meters) for about 4 seconds each.

So the target ran on a course that was 75 feet long, for about 4 seconds. This path was at right angles to the shooter. But the distance to the target, at it's closest, was 110 yards or 330 feet. So the target was 330 feet away from the shooter, not 75 feet, at it's closest.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

Why would you assume that he couldn’t keep the sights lined up on a moving target? I have read that LHO was a member of a shooting club in Russia. And that they could only own shotguns (no rifles). I don’t claim to know what type of shooting they did with their shotguns. But a common and popular type of shooting was at “clay pigeons”. Also called skeet shooting or trap shooting depending on the specifics of how it was set up. Hitting a 110 mm diameter flying target at various and unpredictable angles of flight requires considerable shooting skills and quick reactions. Here is an exerpt regarding LHO’s reaction speed from page 211 of Robert Oswald’s book “Lee” that I find interesting:

I have some idea of the speed of Lee’s reflexes, both from my general observation of him while we were growing up and specifically because of a game we used to play. Sometimes Lee and I would walk up to each other and fake an unexpected punch, to test each other’s reactions. I discovered from this game that Lee had very rapid reflexes.

LHO reportedly delighted in situations where he could “try to prove” his self-perceived “superiority”. I can imagine that his “very rapid reflexes” would have come in handy during any shooting activities he might have had in the shooting club in Russia. Whether they were shooting at birds or rabbits or skeet or whatever, he most likely would have done well shooting at moving targets.

Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963. There is no doubt that the higher angular velocity of an early shot from the sniper’s nest in Dealey Plaza would have made it a much more challenging shot than the two shots that hit JFK. But, again, I think it would have taken more than just that to cause it to miss the limo entirely.

Oswald did minimum shooting in Russia. We was kicked out of the shooting club. Not due to his poor marksmanship, but to his lack of judgement. He made a quick snap shot with a shotgun at a running rabbit which was in the general direction of another shooter. He missed the rabbit and the other shooter. He was not kicked out because he missed the rabbit. It made no difference whether he hit the rabbit or not. He was kicked out because he fired carelessly in the general direction of another person.

Whether an angular speed of 4.8 degrees per second would be enough to cause Oswald to likely miss JFK by five feet, I don't know. One would need to run some tests with someone of Oswald's experience, very good training at stationary targets, at 200, 300 and 500 yards, little to no experience at shooting at moving targets. I suspect that the angular velocity was high enough that he could well miss by five feet, which could cause him to miss the limousine. He seems to have missed the limousine with the first shot. If the high angular velocity is not the explanation than I don't know what is. But firing tests would need to be made to get a more definitive answer.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 30, 2023, 09:24:36 PM
No. the link I provided was:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_meter_running_deer

which states:

So the target ran on a course that was 75 feet long, for about 4 seconds. This path was at right angles to the shooter. But the distance to the target, at it's closest, was 110 yards or 330 feet. So the target was 330 feet away from the shooter, not 75 feet, at it's closest.

Oswald did minimum shooting in Russia. We was kicked out of the shooting club. Not due to his poor marksmanship, but to his lack of judgement. He made a quick snap shot with a shotgun at a running rabbit which was in the general direction of another shooter. He missed the rabbit and the other shooter. He was not kicked out because he missed the rabbit. It made no difference whether he hit the rabbit or not. He was kicked out because he fired carelessly in the general direction of another person.

Whether an angular speed of 4.8 degrees per second would be enough to cause Oswald to likely miss JFK by five feet, I don't know. One would need to run some tests with someone of Oswald's experience, very good training at stationary targets, at 200, 300 and 500 yards, little to no experience at shooting at moving targets. I suspect that the angular velocity was high enough that he could well miss by five feet, which could cause him to miss the limousine. He seems to have missed the limousine with the first shot. If the high angular velocity is not the explanation than I don't know what is. But firing tests would need to be made to get a more definitive answer.


It was your wording in this post that confused me:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.


Thanks for clarifying this.

As for missing a moving target at a distance of 125-feet or less by 5-feet due to angular speed? I don’t think anyone with the rifle training and capabilities that LHO had would have done that without some other interference.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Gerry Down on March 30, 2023, 11:43:30 PM

Yes, the field of view was limited and the speed of the cars would be varied. So the available time to track the cars would be varied also. I think that this would be a challenge that LHO would like. It would be similar to the challenge of skeet or trap shooting. Testing and practicing of LHO’s very fast reflexes (described by Robert Oswald) comes to mind for this challenge. He would have to react quickly to acquire the moving target in his sights and pull the trigger (dry firing) before the car left the field of view. I don’t see how he could have anticipated that this practice would come in handy on 11/22/63. But it sure seems to me that it did.

I hadn't heard this before. What is your source that Robert Oswald said LHO practiced fast reflex times while shooting?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on March 31, 2023, 12:10:06 AM
I hadn't heard this before. What is your source that Robert Oswald said LHO practiced fast reflex times while shooting?


I was referring to the passage in Robert Oswald's book "Lee" which I posted earlier in this thread. It was a game they played when they were growing up. And it didn't have anything to do with rifles. It was walking up to each other and sometimes throwing a fake unexpected punch to test and compare each other's reaction times. Robert said he learned from this game that Lee had very fast reflexes. Sorry if my sentence was unclear.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on March 31, 2023, 01:08:46 AM
I believe you said “this is why you should check…”. Or something like that. I use words like “reportedly” and terms like “it appears to me” to appease your apparent sensitivity to anyone making any kind of assumption whatsoever. It doesn’t matter how well reasoned the assumption might be, you object (unless, of course, it points away from LHO’s guilt). So when, after I use such language, you still insinuate that I said something that I didn’t, I have a legitimate gripe.

Go waste someone else’s time…

That was meant as the the generic "you".  But the specific "you" are wasting your own time by treating every comment as a personal affront.

But then some people care whether the things they quote are actually true or not, rather than just worrying about phrasing things with plausible deniability.

Especially when the quote is being used to try to make the case that Oswald was practicing tracking cars.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Gerry Down on March 31, 2023, 05:33:48 AM

I was referring to the passage in Robert Oswald's book "Lee" which I posted earlier in this thread. It was a game they played when they were growing up. And it didn't have anything to do with rifles. It was walking up to each other and sometimes throwing a fake unexpected punch to test and compare each other's reaction times. Robert said he learned from this game that Lee had very fast reflexes. Sorry if my sentence was unclear.

Thanks. That's a very interesting point. Fast reflexes would be required to resight the target each time such as in a rapid fire situation.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on April 06, 2023, 07:35:21 PM
So I understand it right,  that an earlier closer shot at the JFK limo just beginning to start down Elm st , would actually be a MORE difficult shot because the rifle sight would have to be moved  laterally FASTER than it would at a range 2x farther from the limo?

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on April 06, 2023, 09:07:23 PM
So I understand it right,  that an earlier closer shot at the JFK limo just beginning to start down Elm st , would actually be a MORE difficult shot because the rifle sight would have to be moved  laterally FASTER than it would at a range 2x farther from the limo?

Yes, that is one factor that makes it significantly more difficult. Another factor is the steep angle of an early shot. If one believes that a shot was taken around Z133, then the assassin would have had to be standing up. And a standing shooting position is much less stable than a sitting position (on box D) with the left forearm supported by the boxes in front of the window.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Michael T. Griffith on April 15, 2023, 04:56:38 PM
Again, this is ludicrous. Even the WC balked at the idea that their sixth-floor gunman could have missed both JFK and the entire gigantic limousine with his first, closest, and easiest shot. The limo was 21 feet long and 6.5 feet wide!

Fast forward to 1979 when the HSCA's photographic evidence panel (PEP) admitted that a shot was fired while the limo was beneath the oak tree and that JFK begins to visibly react to this shot in the Zapruder film before the limo drives behind the freeway sign. This remains a devastating admission, which perhaps explains why this finding was so hotly debated inside the HSCA. Everyone realized the implications.

Yet, any honest person with decent eyesight can see that, yes, starting at Z200, JFK suddenly freezes his waving motion with his right hand, starts to bring his right hand toward his throat, and starts to rapidly turn his head to the left. During this same time frame, Jackie suddenly starts to turn her head from left to right to look at JFK. Most of the HSCA experts who analyzed the Zapruder film acknowledged that these movements meant that JFK must have been shot before Z190.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Trojan on April 15, 2023, 06:54:27 PM
The answer is obvious. Oswald missed the 1st shot because his scope was misaligned. After he took the 1st shot, he saw a puff of smoke where the bullet struck the pavement next to the limo. He said to himself, "Damn it, I knew I should have practiced with the rifle and sighted in the scope ahead of time before trying to whack the POTUS. Any sharpshooter knows that!" Then he bolted in another round and used the iron sights instead and took the magic bullet shot. The one that entered JFK's back and out his throat. Oswald was now dialed in and waited for Greer to slow down the limo to the turkey shoot point (Z313) so multiple shots would sound like echoes and Oswald's 3rd magic frangible bullet would explode in JFK's head. That's some fancy shootin!

Oswald must have been a sharpshooter savant, too dumb to practice but quick-witted enough to improvise on the fly. With all those magic bullets, he was definitely a magician, to be sure!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Andrew Mason on May 09, 2023, 04:05:37 AM
The answer is obvious. Oswald missed the 1st shot because his scope was misaligned.
Spending time coming up with theories why the early first shot missed seems a bit premature.  You first have to explain why there is so much evidence:
1. that the first shot occurred after z186 and
2. that JFK quickly reacted to it, (and why there is no evidence that JFK continued to smile and wave after the first shot)..

See discussion under "The First Shot" thread where the consensus is that he first shot hit JFK and the issue is whether it occurred around z195 or so or as late as z222.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Marjan Rynkiewicz on January 06, 2025, 08:05:51 PM
My above feb2021 wordage was early in my jfk accidental homicide study. I need to bring things up to date.
Today i know that Oswald's shot-1 was at about pseudo Z112, & ricocheted offa the western guyrod of the signal arm at Z113.
Holland said Z103 i think -- i am happy to split the difference.
Holland i think reckoned a ricochet offa the actual signals.
Today i know that the present owner of the original signals (Christopher) wrote that there is no bullet hole or dent in the signals.
Today i know that the main remnant slug of shot-1 made a keyhole shaped hole in the floor of the limo -- between the Connally's jumpseats.
Today i know that the lead splatter hit jfk in the top back right of his head (vizible in xrays).
Re my wordage that Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218 -- today i reckon it was at Z215-216, & hit jfk & Connally at Z218-219.
Hickey's accidental autoburst of at least 4 shots of his AR15 was at say Z300-Z312 -- hit jfk's head at Z312-313.

Re the pipes at the SN affecting Oswald's shot-1 -- i think the pipes might have affected his shot-2 moreso than his shot-1.
Nice work.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 06, 2025, 08:47:02 PM

The first shot [...] took place even earlier than Z160.


Correct.

Two seconds earlier, at "Z-124."
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 07, 2025, 03:42:16 AM
Correct.

Two seconds earlier, at "Z-124."

   We gotta problem when conjecture is posted as if it were a fact. The above is an Opinion. Nothing more.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 08, 2025, 05:19:30 AM

   We gotta problem when conjecture is posted as if it were a fact. The above is an Opinion. Nothing more.


You haven't read the 22-page article by Roselle and Scearce, yet, have you?

https://www.acsr.org/post/estimating-occult-timing-of-surprise-gunshot-sounds-in-silent-film-via-observed-start-of-human-vol

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 08, 2025, 12:14:33 PM
You haven't read the 22-page article by Roselle and Scearce, yet, have you?

https://www.acsr.org/post/estimating-occult-timing-of-surprise-gunshot-sounds-in-silent-film-via-observed-start-of-human-vol

   We continue coming back to the "ear witness" stuff. You can't have it both ways. You rely on the "ear" and you then have an issue with the time involved to physically work a bolt action rifle.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 08, 2025, 12:23:42 PM
We continue coming back to the "ear witness" stuff. You can't have it both ways. You rely on the "ear" and you then have an issue with the time involved to physically work a bolt action rifle.

Roselle's and Scearce's study had nothing to do with what those seven witnesses said, but how they were caught on film physically reacting to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot.

Since that shot was at "Z-124" and the next one was at approximately Z-222, Oswald had approximately 5.35 seconds to "work the bolt" and recycle a round into the chamber for his second shot.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 08, 2025, 12:41:20 PM

 The reaction you are seeing from people on the film is the result is what they HEARD = EAR. Ear witnesses overwhelmingly have the 2nd and 3rd shots far too close together for those shots to have been fired by the same bolt action rifle. Holland's "The Lost Bullet" displays Amos Euins banging out those 3 shots. Euins demonstration of the timing of Shots #2 and #3 are too close together.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 08, 2025, 12:56:24 PM
The reaction you are seeing from people on the film is the result is what they HEARD = EAR. Ear witnesses overwhelmingly have the 2nd and 3rd shots far too close together for those shots to have been fired by the same bolt action rifle. Holland's "The Lost Bullet" displays Amos Euins banging out those 3 shots. Euins demonstration of the timing of Shots #2 and #3 are too close together.

Lots of witnesses, including Amos Euins, were confused by the sounds of the muzzle blasts and supersonic "cracks" in the echo chamber known as Dealey Plaza.

That's why Roselle and Scearce focused on the captured-on-film conscious (as opposed to "startle") physical reactions of those seven witnesses to the first, and only the first, shot.

D'oh
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 08, 2025, 06:24:54 PM
Lots of witnesses, including Amos Euins, were confused by the sounds of the muzzle blasts and supersonic "cracks" in the echo chamber known as Dealey Plaza.

That's why Roselle and Scearce focused on the captured-on-film conscious (as opposed to "startle") physical reactions of those seven witnesses to the first, and only the first, shot.

D'oh

   So you wanna rely on what they label a "conscious reaction" vs a "startle reaction"? I would contend the seven witnesses have been "noise conditioned" by the consistent backfires of the DPD motorcycles which are spread throughout the motorcade. That "reaction" well was poisoned by all of the motorcycle backfires.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 09, 2025, 04:53:01 AM

So you wanna rely on what they label a "conscious reaction" vs a "startle reaction"? I would contend the seven witnesses have been "noise conditioned" by the consistent backfires of the DPD motorcycles which are spread throughout the motorcade. That "reaction" well was poisoned by all of the motorcycle backfires.


Since all seven of those witnesses were, according to you, already conditioned to hearing shot-like sounds (does a motorcycle backfire produce a supersonic "crack"?) that day, their conscious (i.e., non-"startle") physical reactions -- as "captured" by the Zapruder film -- to the 1) muzzle blast, and 2) the supersonic "crack" of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot must have been slower than if they weren't "conditioned." And therefore it must have occurred even earlier than "Z-124".
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 09, 2025, 12:53:54 PM
Since all seven of those witnesses were, according to you, already conditioned to hearing shot-like sounds (does a motorcycle backfire produce a supersonic "crack"?) that day, their conscious (i.e., non-"startle") physical reactions -- as "captured" by the Zapruder film -- to the 1) muzzle blast, and 2) the supersonic "crack" of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot must have been slower than if they weren't "conditioned." And therefore it must have occurred even earlier than "Z-124".

    A poisoned well/ear can Not be relied on/used. That is what I am saying. Your insatiable thirst to move the 1st shot to an earlier point in time has now become obvious. 
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 09, 2025, 11:23:22 PM
    A poisoned well/ear can Not be relied on/used. That is what I am saying. Your insatiable thirst to move the 1st shot to an earlier point in time has now become obvious.

1) How many bullets do you think hit JFK and/or JBC?

2) Were there any shots that missed both of them?

3) If so, when was the first missing shot fired, and from where?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 11, 2025, 01:25:03 PM
1) How many bullets do you think hit JFK and/or JBC?

2) Were there any shots that missed both of them?

3) If so, when was the first missing shot fired, and from where?

  (1) Based on the JFK Head Explosion, I believe we are seeing either multi shots striking the head simultaneously, or the result of a different gun/different ammo. Either way this = Conspiracy. That Head Explosion was very unlike any of the other wounds that JFK or Gov Connally suffered that day.

  (2) Do Not know.

  (3) Do Not know.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 11, 2025, 01:57:04 PM
  (1) Based on the JFK Head Explosion, I believe we are seeing either multi shots striking the head simultaneously, or the result of a different gun/different ammo. Either way this = Conspiracy. That Head Explosion was very unlike any of the other wounds that JFK or Gov Connally suffered that day.

  (2) Do Not know.

  (3) Do Not know.

The one-and-only bullet struck the rear of JFK's head and its pressure wave caused his skull to explode by fracturing it in the right temple area.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 11, 2025, 04:01:07 PM
The one-and-only bullet struck the rear of JFK's head and its pressure wave caused his skull to explode by fracturing it in the right temple area.

   That gaping (R) Temple "Fracture" was NOT observed by the Parkland Hospital Dr's. SA Clint Hill makes no mention of viewing such a Hole as he looked down on the body of JFK from his spread eagle position atop the JFK Limo. SA Hill did mention seeing a Hole in the rear of JFK's head. A hole large enough that permitted Hill to see inside the head of JFK. That (R) Temple "Fracture" was not noted until after the stolen body of JFK was observed at the Bethesda Autopsy. This would be around 6 Hours following the kill shot. And if you wanna use the Zapruder film to somewhat document a (R) Temple "Fracture" caused by a "pressure wave", you also then need to explain why the JFK "Halo" of blood/brain matter went UP and FORWARD vs being expelled through this Large (R) Temple Fracture.   
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on January 13, 2025, 01:56:34 AM
IMO, the missed shot was the 3rd shot fired about 0.5 sec after 2nd shot at Z313 and 5 sec after 1st shot that hit both JFK and JC at Z224

This is the theoretical result of a semi auto rifle having been the weapon used by the TSBD shooter.

The shooter saw he did not score head shot at Z224 so took another 4.8 secs to carefully aim
and squeezed off 2 more rounds rapidly of which the 2nd hit JFK high on the right rear side of the head while the 3rd round flew high due to the effect of muzzle rise when firing a semi auto rifle rapidly. That 3rd round was the one that hit the curb near James Tague and because that bullet had a different metal composition than an MC bullet may explain the anomaly of the curb analysis that seems to rule out an MC bullet having struck the curb.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 13, 2025, 02:08:04 AM
IMO, the missed shot was the 3rd shot fired about 0.5 sec after 2nd shot at Z313 and 5 sec after 1st shot that hit both JFK and JC at Z224

This is the theoretical result of a semi auto rifle having been the weapon used by the TSBD shooter.

The shooter saw he did not score head shot at Z224 so took another 4.8 secs to carefully aim
and squeezed off 2 more rounds rapidly of which the 2nd hit JFK high on the right rear side of the head while the 3rd round flew high due to the effect of muzzle rise when firing a semi auto rifle rapidly. That 3rd round was the one that hit the curb near James Tague and because that bullet had a different metal composition than an MC bullet may explain the anomaly of the curb analysis that seems to rule out an MC bullet having struck the curb.

I think you're full of beans.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 13, 2025, 03:48:03 PM
IMO, the missed shot was the 3rd shot fired about 0.5 sec after 2nd shot at Z313 and 5 sec after 1st shot that hit both JFK and JC at Z224

This is the theoretical result of a semi auto rifle having been the weapon used by the TSBD shooter.

The shooter saw he did not score head shot at Z224 so took another 4.8 secs to carefully aim
and squeezed off 2 more rounds rapidly of which the 2nd hit JFK high on the right rear side of the head while the 3rd round flew high due to the effect of muzzle rise when firing a semi auto rifle rapidly. That 3rd round was the one that hit the curb near James Tague and because that bullet had a different metal composition than an MC bullet may explain the anomaly of the curb analysis that seems to rule out an MC bullet having struck the curb.

   Your Theory kinda sounds like the HSCA 4 Shot scenario. For whatever reason though, you want to keep the shots being fired coming from the rear of the JFK Limo. The Tague/Curb episode does Not have to begin with a shot being fired from behind the JFK Limo.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on January 14, 2025, 09:59:45 PM
Best probability is that the shooter inadvertently squeezed trigger in his initial positioning  of the rifle atop  the firing platform of boxes.

So that means 1st shot not fired until at least Z160-170 where it can be accomplished without shooter standing up.

at that angle at least, there’s a better probability the bullet could have ricochet off the pavement.

Otherwise if not striking the pavement, instead striking grass/dirt then there’s the manhole cover to consider and why that one FBI agent was bending down to touch that uprooted grass by the manhole cover with his fingers.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on January 14, 2025, 10:58:21 PM
Best probability is that the shooter inadvertently squeezed trigger in his initial positioning  of the rifle atop  the firing platform of boxes.

So that means 1st shot not fired until at least Z160-170 where it can be accomplished without shooter standing up.

at that angle at least, there’s a better probability the bullet could have ricochet off the pavement.

Otherwise if not striking the pavement, instead striking grass/dirt then there’s the manhole cover to consider and why that one FBI agent was bending down to touch that uprooted grass by the manhole cover with his fingers.


So that means 1st shot not fired until at least Z160-170 where it can be accomplished without shooter standing up.

If it was inadvertent, there is no reason to believe that it couldn’t also have been (and probably was) premature (earlier than intended). My current thoughts are that it was probably earlier than intended due to interference from the window box. I think he would have intended to start trying to track his moving target before it became obscured by the tree so that he could be ready to complete the aim and fire very quickly after it emerged from behind the tree. And what I think might have happened is that the rifle barrel hit the window box and came to an unexpected sudden stop as it was being lowered. If his finger was on the trigger at that time, the sudden unexpected stoppage of the rifle could have caused an inadvertent trigger pull while the rifle was not yet fully aimed and was pointed well ahead of the actual limo position at that early timing. Yes, I think that this would have been in a sitting on the box position. But I don’t believe it had to be “at least Z160-Z170. I think that it could have been (and probably was a little earlier than that).
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 14, 2025, 11:25:18 PM

So that means 1st shot not fired until at least Z160-170 where it can be accomplished without shooter standing up.

If it was inadvertent, there is no reason to believe that it couldn’t also have been (and probably was) premature (earlier than intended). My current thoughts are that it was probably earlier than intended due to interference from the window box. I think he would have intended to start trying to track his moving target before it became obscured by the tree so that he could be ready to complete the aim and fire very quickly after it emerged from behind the tree. And what I think might have happened is that the rifle barrel hit the window box and came to an unexpected sudden stop as it was being lowered. If his finger was on the trigger at that time, the sudden unexpected stoppage of the rifle could have caused an inadvertent trigger pull while the rifle was not yet fully aimed and was pointed well ahead of the actual limo position at that early timing. Yes, I think that this would have been in a sitting on the box position. But I don’t believe it had to be “at least Z160-Z170. I think that it could have been (and probably was a little earlier than that).

How do you account for the moving white object (Oswald's white t-shirt?) in the window in the digitally enhanced clip from the Robert Hughes film -- which clip is viewable in "The Lost Bullet" video?

Do you think Oswald was squirming all over the place while sitting on his "sit box" two seconds before he fired his first, missing-everything, shot?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on January 15, 2025, 12:01:54 AM
How do you account for the moving white object (Oswald's white t-shirt?) in the window in the digitally enhanced clip from the Robert Hughes film -- which clip is viewable in "The Lost Bullet" video?

Do you think Oswald was squirming all over the place while sitting on his "sit box" two seconds before he fired his first, missing-everything, shot?

First please tell us exactly where in the window you believe the “moving white object to be located. Here is a screenshot from the digitally enhanced Hughes film clip from “The Lost Bullet”.


(https://i.vgy.me/OSNFZ3.png)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 15, 2025, 12:31:52 AM
First please tell us exactly where in the window you believe the “moving white object to be located. Here is a screenshot from the digitally enhanced Hughes film clip from “The Lost Bullet”.

Why don't you watch "The Lost Bullet" and see for yourself?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on January 15, 2025, 12:43:20 AM
Why don't you watch "The Lost Bullet" and see for yourself?

I did, where do you think I got the screenshot? Are you going to tell us exactly where in the window you believe the moving white object to be located?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 15, 2025, 12:48:56 AM
I did, where do you think I got the screenshot? Are you going to tell us exactly where in the window you believe the moving white object to be located?

You can't tell?

Do you think it's just an "artifact"?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Charles Collins on January 15, 2025, 01:19:07 AM
You can't tell?

Do you think it's just an "artifact"?

I just want to know where you believe the moving white object is located. If you are not going to answer this simple question, I cannot help you.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on January 20, 2025, 01:32:27 AM
So if it could be an inadvertent  squeezing trigger as the shooter STARTS to lean over then perhaps the Z143-45 movement of SS agent Hickey may indicate it was at that point which a bullet was fired.

So the angle of the rifle is not dependent on the Z frame point in time because the angle of the rifle as the shooter is holding it while he is in transition to placing it on the boxes could have been much less acute than would be if he had aimed a shot at Z143.

Therefore that angle was perhaps a lot less acute , and thus the bullet could have ricocheted off the asphalt and was the “something” that Virgie Rachley saw striking the pavement.

The bullet must still be somewhere in Dealey Plaza.

Going with Murphys Law that if an object is dropped it will roll into the most inaccessible part of the room and adapting that to a bullet fired at 2000 ft/sec striking at  a slight angle to the asphalt pavement  and the “room” being Dealey Plaza area, that the most inaccessible area would be drain/sewer pipes.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 20, 2025, 06:49:51 PM

  Murphy's Law = "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong". Not sure how this "Law" applies to dropping an object inside a room.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 21, 2025, 12:21:42 AM
  Murphy's Law = "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong". Not sure how this "Law" applies to dropping an object inside a room.

Which object are you referring to?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 21, 2025, 01:37:33 PM
So if it could be an inadvertent  squeezing trigger as the shooter STARTS to lean over then perhaps the Z143-45 movement of SS agent Hickey may indicate it was at that point which a bullet was fired.

So the angle of the rifle is not dependent on the Z frame point in time because the angle of the rifle as the shooter is holding it while he is in transition to placing it on the boxes could have been much less acute than would be if he had aimed a shot at Z143.

Therefore that angle was perhaps a lot less acute , and thus the bullet could have ricocheted off the asphalt and was the “something” that Virgie Rachley saw striking the pavement.

The bullet must still be somewhere in Dealey Plaza.

Going with Murphys Law that if an object is dropped it will roll into the most inaccessible part of the room and adapting that to a bullet fired at 2000 ft/sec striking at  a slight angle to the asphalt pavement  and the “room” being Dealey Plaza area, that the most inaccessible area would be drain/sewer pipes.

   You wanna use SA Hickey? He thought the 1st Shot was fired from "Ground Level". Due Diligence Required!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Trojan on January 22, 2025, 10:45:05 PM
Oswald obviously missed the 1st shot because his scope was grossly misaligned. The LNers seem to think he must have seen a puff of smoke where the bullet struck the pavement next to the limo and decided to use the iron sights for the magic bullet shot that entered JFK's back at T1 and out his throat at C7. Then he waited for Greer to slow down the limo to the turkey shoot point (Z313) and fired the 3rd shot with a frangible bullet that exploded in JFK's head. Oswald must have been a sharpshooter savant, too dumb to practice and sight-in his scope but quick-witted enough to improvise on the fly.

Maybe Oswald knew he was the designated patsy. Maybe he smuggled the rifle into the TSBD in pieces inside a paper bag and reassembled it without leaving a single print on the rifle. Maybe he took some shots from the SN and wiped off all his prints, ditched the rifle, bought a coke from a vending machine in the lunchroom within 90 secs. Maybe the MC wasn't leaky enough to deposit any nitrates on Oswald's face as he took the shots. Maybe Oswald was such an elite sharpshooter he could pull off a headshot using a crap rifle with a wonky scope and no practice. Maybe the magic bullet did zig-zag thru JFK and Connally and showed up on the wrong stretcher in near-pristine condition without a trace of blood, flesh or bone on it. Maybe the DPD were just incompetent with the evidence and inadvertently served up Oswald to Ruby. But none of those maybes exclude Oswald from being a pasty. LNers are actually WC Defenders, since Oswald was clearly a patsy, not a lone nut. And if the Big Event was a conspiracy, there is no way in hell they would rely on the patsy to use a crap rifle with a wonky scope to single handedly take out the POTUS. Besides, there isn't even a valid trajectory from the SN into JFK's back and out his throat. That's why the WC was forced to move the wound up his back closer to his neck to make their LN narrative plausible.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 22, 2025, 10:48:03 PM
Oswald obviously missed the 1st shot because his scope was grossly misaligned.

Why would he use the scope for such a close-up shot?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Trojan on January 22, 2025, 10:58:15 PM
Why would he use the scope for such a close-up shot?

Why didn't he take the 1st shot when the limo turned on Elm when JFK was a mere 60 ft in front of him?

Why would he leave the scope on the rifle when he disassembled it before smuggling it into the TSBD? Less rifle to smuggle in.

Why would he leave the scope on the rifle if he didn't intend to use it? It would only have gotten in the way if he intended to use the iron sights.

Why would he not have sighted in the scope and practiced with it? Any sharpshooter would have, especially for such an important mission.



Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 22, 2025, 11:03:22 PM
Why didn't he take the 1st shot when the limo turned on Elm when JFK was a mere 60 ft in front of him?

Why would he leave the scope on the rifle when he disassembled it before smuggling it into the TSBD? Less rifle to smuggle in.

Why would he leave the scope on the rifle if he didn't intend to use it? It would only have gotten in the way if he intended to use the iron sights.

Why would he not have sighted in the scope and practiced with it? Any sharpshooter would have, especially for such an important mission.

Why don't you just answer my question?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Trojan on January 22, 2025, 11:32:50 PM
Why don't you just answer my question?

I thought it was rhetorical. Otherwise, how would I know what was going through Oswald's head? He wasn't even 1 of the shooters. Now answer any of mine, if you dare.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 22, 2025, 11:49:47 PM
How would I know what was going through Oswald's head?

Exactly.

But you do realize, don't you, that Oswald's using his scope for such a close-up, fast-moving target at "Z-124" would be counterproductive, and if he did try that stunt (using the scope for his first, missing-everything shot), it would probably explain why he missed everything with it.

Either that, or, as Charles Collins hypothesizes, the barrel of his short-rifle bumped the box on the windowsill and caused him it to prematurely "go off."

D'oh.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Trojan on January 23, 2025, 12:09:25 AM
Exactly.

Are you trying to make a point? Because it's moot if Oswald never took a shot. He was in the lunch room having a Coke at the time. The Carcano was already ditched and Oswald was waiting for further instructions because he was just the patsy, whether he knew it or not.

If you would like me to speculate, then why would any shooter not use the scope from that distance? Wouldn't you? Sharpshooter Oswald must have used the wonky scope if he missed from that distance, which checkmates your point, no? Do you ever intend to answer any of my questions, or can't you handle the implications?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 12:20:26 AM
[Oswald's using or not using the scope] is moot if he never took a shot. He was in the lunchroom having a Coke at the time. The Carcano was already ditched and Oswald was waiting for further instructions because he was just the patsy, whether he knew it or not.

See, that's where 60-plus years of KGB* disinformation and "active measures" ops have really xxxxxx you, and millions of other Americans, up.

Poor widdle self-described Marxist Oswald didn't even own the Carcano, right?

LOL!

*Today's SVR and FSB

Rhymes with mucked.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Jack Trojan on January 23, 2025, 12:48:59 AM
See, that's where 60-plus years of KGB* disinformation and "active measures" ops have really xxxxxx you, and millions of other Americans, up.

Poor widdle self-described Marxist Oswald didn't even own the Carcano, right?

LOL!

*Today's SVR and FSB

Rhymes with mucked.

How old are you? You LNer trolls are the reason I don't bother with this site any more. You have no critical thinking skills and you wouldn't know a fallacy if it bucked (ryhmes with f*cked) you in your arse. The irony is that the Lone Nut Conspiracy Theory has a hold of you Neo.

I have no intention of engaging with you tin foil hat LNers at least until you grow up and learn how to use logic to make an argument. Maybe then you can debate like an adult. Until then, later dude.

 
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 12:55:00 AM
How old are you? You LNer trolls are the reason I don't bother with this site any more. You have no critical thinking skills and you wouldn't know a fallacy if it bucked (ryhmes with f*cked) you in your arse. The irony is that the Lone Nut Conspiracy Theory has a hold of you Neo. I have no intention of engaging with you tin foil hat LNers at least until you grow up and learn how to use logic to make an argument. Maybe then you can debate like an adult. Until then, later dude.

How old am I? Suffice it to say I've been studying the JFKA for 40-plus years and I used to be a tinfoil-hat conspiracy theorist like you.

Speaking of logical fallacies, how many bad guys do you figure were involved in the planning, the "patsy-ing," the shooting, and the all-important COVER UP?

Coupla hundred?

Thousands?

"Arse"?

What's that in American English?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 23, 2025, 01:37:08 AM
Exactly.

But you do realize, don't you, that Oswald's using his scope for such a close-up, fast-moving target at "Z-124" would be counterproductive, and if he did try that stunt (using the scope for his first, missing-everything shot), it would probably explain why he missed everything with it.

Either that, or, as Charles Collins hypothesizes, the barrel of his short-rifle bumped the box on the windowsill and caused him it to prematurely "go off."

D'oh.

   You LN's buying into Holland's early/missed shot is perfect. CT's can also claim that missed shot came from a 2nd shooter. You're shooting yourself in the foot with that early missed shot. Thanks
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 02:08:49 AM
You LN's buying into Holland's early/missed shot is perfect. CT's can also claim that missed shot came from a 2nd shooter. You're shooting yourself in the foot with that early missed shot. Thanks

Max Holland's hypothesized first shot (which you seem to be obsessed with) was at "Z-107."

Roselle's and Scearce's is at "Z-124" and is based on scientific analysis of seven witnesses' conscious (i.e., not "startle") head movements in reaction to hearing (and possibly feeling) the sounds (and vibrations) from the first shot.

James Tague was probably nicked by a bullet fragment from Oswald's Z-313 head shot and then spaced out on which of the three shots had hit him.

Funny how you've been brainwashed by KGB* disinformation regarding both the JFKA and the Traitorous Orange Person known as Donald J. Trump.

Sorry, Royell, but I gotta ask ya --

Are you a KGB agent?

In my humble opinion you sound like a KGB agent.

On both accounts.

*Today's SVR and FSB
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 23, 2025, 02:21:34 AM

    "Head movements in reaction to hearing sounds....". Says who? "Sounds" = what? A Motorcycle Back Fire? Pure Conjecture.  "James Tague was PROBABLY....". This is just too easy.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 02:30:24 AM
"James Tague was PROBABLY....". This is just too easy.

Well, James Tague was nicked by something, wouldn't you agree?

Which do you think is most likely:

1) He was nicked by a bullet fragment from Max Holland's "Z-107" first shot.

2) He was nicked by a fragment from Roselle's and Scearce's "Z-124" first shot.

3) He was nicked by a fragment from the Z-313 head shot.

4) He cut himself shaving that morning.

5) He was hit by a bullet fired by one of the fifteen professional snipers the evil, evil Military Industrial Intelligence-Community Complex sent to Dealey Plaza that day.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 23, 2025, 03:19:22 PM
Well, James Tague was nicked by something, wouldn't you agree?

Which do you think is most likely:

1) He was nicked by a bullet fragment from Max Holland's "Z-107" first shot.

2) He was nicked by a fragment from Roselle's and Scearce's "Z-124" first shot.

3) He was nicked by a fragment from the Z-313 head shot.

4) He cut himself shaving that morning.

5) He was hit by a bullet fired by one of the fifteen professional snipers the evil, evil Military Industrial Intelligence-Community Complex sent to Dealey Plaza that day.

   I believe that Tague was hit by a curb fragment from the same bullet that Wiegman felt a "compression" on his face from. This bullet having been fired from a 2nd gun, "almost on the horizontal". ("The Men Who Killed Kennedy")
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 04:20:46 PM
I believe that Tague was hit by a curb fragment from the same bullet that Wiegman felt a "compression" on his face from. This bullet having been fired from a 2nd gun, "almost on the horizontal".

And where did that shot come from?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 23, 2025, 05:37:25 PM
And where did that shot come from?

   I was researching the lack of security surrounding the TSBD immediately following the Kill Shot and discovered this "almost on the horizontal" location. This has Never been explored/discussed previously that I am aware of, and I have been around awhile. This is new ground.  If this location was Not an actual shooter position, it was definitely a "central control" position which coordinated the actions of the other shooters. It could be both, with the "shooter" in close proximity to the "controller".  I have collected a lot of legit Evidence, but I am looking for 1 more specific piece to this puzzle. Treat me nice or, "No soup for you"! Stay Tuned!!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Marjan Rynkiewicz on January 23, 2025, 07:37:50 PM
Well, James Tague was nicked by something, wouldn't you agree?

Which do you think is most likely:

1) He was nicked by a bullet fragment from Max Holland's "Z-107" first shot.

2) He was nicked by a fragment from Roselle's and Scearce's "Z-124" first shot.

3) He was nicked by a fragment from the Z-313 head shot.

4) He cut himself shaving that morning.

5) He was hit by a bullet fired by one of the fifteen professional snipers the evil, evil Military Industrial Intelligence-Community Complex sent to Dealey Plaza that day.
Tom, i am not sure whether u are like some of the idiots on this forum.
Anyhow, save yourself some trouble & read (all of) my postings.
Tague was wounded by SSA Hickey's first or second shot of his accidental auto burst of his AR15 which started at about Z300 (& of course the last shot was at Z312).
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 08:36:49 PM
Tom, i am not sure whether u are like some of the idiots on this forum.
Anyhow, save yourself some trouble & read (all of) my postings.
Tague was wounded by SSA Hickey's first or second shot of his accidental auto burst of his AR15 which started at about Z300 (& of course the last shot was at Z312).

Know what I think?

I think you're full of beans regarding Hickey.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 23, 2025, 08:56:32 PM
I was researching the lack of security surrounding the TSBD immediately following the Kill Shot and discovered this "almost on the horizontal" location. This has Never been explored/discussed previously that I am aware of, and I have been around awhile. This is new ground.  If this location was Not an actual shooter position, it was definitely a "central control" position which coordinated the actions of the other shooters. It could be both, with the "shooter" in close proximity to the "controller".  I have collected a lot of legit Evidence, but I am looking for 1 more specific piece to this puzzle. Treat me nice or, "No soup for you"! Stay Tuned!!

Which do you believe to be the case:

1) Oswald fired three shots at JFK from the "Sniper's Nest," or

2) One of the bad guys fired three shots at JFK from the "Sniper's Nest" with Oswald's Carcano and therefore he or some other bad guy planted Oswald's prints on the boxes and the paper bag, or

3) Nobody shot at JFK from the "Sniper's Nest," and therefore the boxes with Oswald's prints, the paper bag with Oswald's prints, the three Carcano hulls found on the "Sniper's Nest's" floor, and the Carcano found near the "Sniper's Nest" with Oswald's prints on it were all planted by the bad guys.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on January 24, 2025, 08:02:59 PM
Which do you believe to be the case:

1) Oswald fired three shots at JFK from the "Sniper's Nest," or

2) One of the bad guys fired three shots at JFK from the "Sniper's Nest" with Oswald's Carcano and therefore he or some other bad guy planted Oswald's prints on the boxes and the paper bag, or

3) Nobody shot at JFK from the "Sniper's Nest," and therefore the boxes with Oswald's prints, the paper bag with Oswald's prints, the three Carcano hulls found on the "Sniper's Nest's" floor, and the Carcano found near the "Sniper's Nest" with Oswald's prints on it were all planted by the bad guys.

4) None of the above.

P.S. "Oswald's Carcano", LOL.  "Carcano with Oswald's prints on it", LOL.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 24, 2025, 09:01:59 PM
4) None of the above.

P.S. "Oswald's Carcano", LOL.  "Carcano with Oswald's prints on it", LOL.

Don't you think (sic) the evil, evil, evil CIA planted all that stuff?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 24, 2025, 09:14:00 PM
4) None of the above.

P.S. "Oswald's Carcano", LOL.  "Carcano with Oswald's prints on it", LOL.

Wasn't Oswald's "hidden" print found on the disassembled Carcano, and didn't the DPD or some other law enforcement agency detect and photograph some hard-to-make-out prints on its trigger guard on 11/22/63, and didn't a fingerprint expert take a close look at those photos years later and determine that the prints were Oswald's?

Also, weren't some fibers from Oswald's shirt and/or the blanket in Ruth Paine's garage found on the Carcano?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 25, 2025, 04:11:17 AM

  It just doesn't feel right that the FBI strong armed the DPD and confiscated ALL the JFK Assassination evidence that very night. Lt Day was Not even finished with his examination of the Carcano. And this was after stealing the body of JFK that afternoon. J. Edgar had this all sewed up less than 24 hrs after the Kill Shot
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 25, 2025, 04:58:50 AM
  It just doesn't feel right that the FBI strong armed the DPD and confiscated ALL the JFK Assassination evidence that very night. Lt Day was Not even finished with his examination of the Carcano. And this was after stealing the body of JFK that afternoon. J. Edgar had this all sewed up less than 24 hrs after the Kill Shot

It wasn't that hard to figure out.

The Carcano was purchased by "A. J. Hidel" = Lee Harvey Oswald

Oswald worked in the 7-storey TSBD.

CE399 matched with the Carcano.

No alibi.

Oswald left within 3 minutes of the shooting.

Oswald's palm print was found on his Carcano.

Oswald killed Officer Tippit while trying to get out of Dodge.

Etc.


Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Royell Storing on January 25, 2025, 03:40:29 PM
It wasn't that hard to figure out.

The Carcano was purchased by "A. J. Hidel" = Lee Harvey Oswald

Oswald worked in the 7-storey TSBD.

CE399 matched with the Carcano.

No alibi.

Oswald left within 3 minutes of the shooting.

Oswald's palm print was found on his Carcano.

Oswald killed Officer Tippit while trying to get out of Dodge.

Etc.

    A "frame" job is Not supposed to be, "hard to figure out".
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 25, 2025, 05:32:06 PM
    A "frame" job is Not supposed to be, "hard to figure out".

What makes you think it was a "frame" job"

How many bad guys do you figure were involved, altogether, with the planning, the "framing," the shooting, and ... gasp ... the all-important COVER UP?

Couple of hundred?

Thousands?

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on January 25, 2025, 06:35:21 PM
Wasn't Oswald's "hidden" print found on the disassembled Carcano, and didn't the DPD or some other law enforcement agency detect and photograph some hard-to-make-out prints on its trigger guard on 11/22/63, and didn't a fingerprint expert take a close look at those photos years later and determine that the prints were Oswald's?

A single partial palmprint was sent to the FBI on an index card a week after the assassination.

Latona told the WC that the trigger guard prints were not suitable for identification purposes.  Scalise told the HSCA that the the trigger guard prints were not suitable for identification purposes.  30 years after the assassination, some photos with no provenance whatsoever were pulled out of a briefcase and examined by Scalise, who didn't publish his work, or identify how many points of identity he found or where they were located.

Quote
Also, weren't some fibers from Oswald's shirt and/or the blanket in Ruth Paine's garage found on the Carcano?

Fibers cannot be exclusively matched to a specific item like a shirt.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 25, 2025, 07:17:09 PM
A single partial palmprint was sent to the FBI on an index card a week after the assassination.

Latona told the WC that the trigger guard prints were not suitable for identification purposes.  Scalise told the HSCA that the the trigger guard prints were not suitable for identification purposes.  30 years after the assassination, some photos with no provenance whatsoever were pulled out of a briefcase and examined by Scalise, who didn't publish his work, or identify how many points of identity he found or where they were located.

Fibers cannot be exclusively matched to a specific item like a shirt.

How many "unfortunate-for-Oswald coincidences" do you figure the Warren Commission blew out of proportion or . . . gasp . . . outright fabricated . . . in its effort to incriminate the poor little sharpshooting, "wrong place at the wrong time," self-described Marxist known as Lee Harvey Oswald?

Too many to count?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on January 27, 2025, 11:23:14 PM
How many unsubstantiated claims are you planning on stating as though they were facts?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 27, 2025, 11:29:58 PM
How many unsubstantiated claims are you planning on stating as though they were facts?

How many "really, really unfortunate-for-Oswald coincidences" do you figure the evil Warren Commission blew out of proportion or . . . gasp . . . outright fabricated . . . in evil effort to incriminate the poor little sharpshooting "wrong place at the wrong time" self-described Marxist known as Lee Harvey Oswald?

Way too many for you to count, right?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on January 27, 2025, 11:59:23 PM
Is there an echo in here?

Sorry, but unsubstantiated claims don't "incriminate" anybody.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 28, 2025, 12:23:46 AM
Is there an echo in here?

Sorry, but unsubstantiated claims don't "incriminate" anybody.

Didn't Marina testify that she found Lee's wedding ring that day (11/22/63) in the special-to-her little cup her grandmother had given her?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 28, 2025, 01:44:42 AM
Is there an echo in here?

Just in the vacant recesses of your skull.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on January 30, 2025, 11:24:39 PM
Didn't Marina testify that she found Lee's wedding ring that day (11/22/63) in the special-to-her little cup her grandmother had given her?

Yes she did. And Ruth Paine testified that she was the one who found it. One of Marina’s statements (CD79) said she saw it lying on top of the dresser. Nothing about a cup. Another one of here statements (CE1820) said that the police found it. An FBI report (FBI 105-82555 Oswald HQ File, Section 16, p. 93) says that the police found it on the dresser.

Was there ever a ring there, and was it actually in a cup? Who knows?

But what the hell does that have to do with who killed JFK? Nothing, unless you’re desperate to invent “evidence”.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on January 30, 2025, 11:25:54 PM
Just in the vacant recesses of your skull.

Cool insult, bro.

I suppose you consider that “circumstantial evidence” against Oswald too.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 31, 2025, 01:14:18 AM
I suppose you consider that “circumstantial evidence” against Oswald too.

John Iacoletti seems to believe that circumstantial evidence isn't really evidence.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on January 31, 2025, 01:17:20 AM
Yes she did. And Ruth Paine testified that she was the one who found it. One of Marina’s statements (CD79) said she saw it lying on top of the dresser. Nothing about a cup. Another one of here statements (CE1820) said that the police found it. An FBI report (FBI 105-82555 Oswald HQ File, Section 16, p. 93) says that the police found it on the dresser.

Was there ever a ring there, and was it actually in a cup? Who knows?

But what the hell does that have to do with who killed JFK? Nothing, unless you’re desperate to invent “evidence”.

You mean KGB informant (according to KGB true defector Pyotr Deriabin) Marina and Russophile Ruthie gave confusing, conflicting testimony?

Imagine that!
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on February 01, 2025, 09:15:50 PM
John Iacoletti seems to believe that circumstantial evidence isn't really evidence.

It's not "circumstantial evidence" either.  All it is evidence of is your confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on February 01, 2025, 09:17:30 PM
You mean KGB informant (according to KGB true defector Pyotr Deriabin) Marina and Russophile Ruthie gave confusing, conflicting testimony?

Imagine that!

Sorry, is that supposed to show that your little wishful thinking story about the wedding ring is actual evidence of something?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on February 01, 2025, 10:16:20 PM
It's not "circumstantial evidence" either.  All it is evidence of is your confirmation bias.

In your humble opinion, is there any legitimate "circumstantial evidence" in the JFKA case that points to the psychologically disturbed, sharpshooting, self-described Marxist known as Lee Harvey Oswald as being the person who killed JFK?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on February 06, 2025, 06:37:54 PM
Not that I'm aware of.  Your description isn't even accurate.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on February 06, 2025, 07:32:15 PM
Not that I'm aware of.  Your description isn't even accurate.

1) If in your opinion there is not even any circumstantial evidence that tends to incriminate Oswald for the assassination of JFK, does that mean you think (sic) "Lone Nutters" have been fooled by "evidence" that was fabricated against him?

2) In your humble opinion, which of these is an incorrect description of Oswald:

A) He was psychologically disturbed.

B) He was a sharpshooter.

C) He was a self-described Marxist.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on February 06, 2025, 09:26:27 PM
1) If in your opinion there is not even any circumstantial evidence that tends to incriminate Oswald for the assassination of JFK, does that mean you think (sic) "Lone Nutters" have been fooled by "evidence" that was fabricated against him?

Even if there was no fabrication, the existing evidence (real evidence, not silly crap like "why did he leave his wedding ring?") does not demonstrate who killed Kennedy.  Not to anything even approaching beyond a reasonable doubt.  The fact that the few pieces of actual evidence are weak, circumstantial, and questionable or tainted in some way is just gravy.

Quote
2) In your humble opinion, which of these is an incorrect description of Oswald:

A) He was psychologically disturbed.

Yes.  What are you basing this on?  A report from when he was 13?  That doesn't even say "psychologically disturbed" anywhere?

Quote
B) He was a sharpshooter.

Yes.  You mean barely qualifying as one 7 years earlier?

Quote
C) He was a self-described Marxist.

You got that one right.  But what does that have to do with anything?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on February 06, 2025, 09:46:14 PM
Even if there was no fabrication, the existing evidence (real evidence, not silly crap like "why did he leave his wedding ring?") does not demonstrate who killed Kennedy.  Not to anything even approaching beyond a reasonable doubt.  The fact that the few pieces of actual evidence are weak, circumstantial, and questionable or tainted in some way is just gravy.

Do you think (sic) there was fabrication?

Quote
Yes.  What are you basing this on?  A report from when he was 13?  That doesn't even say "psychologically disturbed" anywhere?

Psychologists tell us that our personalities are formed by age twelve. Does your birth certificate say anywhere that you're a human being?

Quote
Yes.  You mean barely qualifying as one 7 years earlier?

Anyone who has qualified as a Marine Marksman (the lowest level) is a "sharpshooter" by civilian standards.

Quote
You got that one right.  But what does that have to do with anything?

Marxists believe that history evolves through a dialectical process. Therefore, Oswald probably believed he was helping to accelerate the process by killing charismatic anti-Communist JFK.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: John Iacoletti on February 08, 2025, 06:37:18 PM
Do you think (sic) there was fabrication?

It doesn't matter what I think.  It only matters what people who claim things can prove.

Quote
Psychologists tell us that our personalities are formed by age twelve. Does your birth certificate say anywhere that you're a human being?

Really?  What psychologists?

Quote
Anyone who has qualified as a Marine Marksman (the lowest level) is a "sharpshooter" by civilian standards.

Based on what criteria, exactly?

Quote
Marxists believe that history evolves through a dialectical process. Therefore, Oswald probably believed he was helping to accelerate the process by killing charismatic anti-Communist JFK.

"Probably".  LOL.

It's funny, though.  The people passing around leaflets, didn't think Kennedy was "anti-Communist".

(https://compote.slate.com/images/137d7a6d-c66d-4577-b7c9-a0b04357c2da.jpg)
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on February 08, 2025, 09:45:17 PM

The people passing around leaflets didn't think Kennedy was "anti-Communist".


Did JFK say, "I am a Berliner" (in German)?

Did JFK stand up to Khruschev during the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Were JFK and RFK trying to kill Castro?

I could go on and on.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Steve M. Galbraith on March 02, 2025, 09:30:19 PM
How old are you? You LNer trolls are the reason I don't bother with this site any more. You have no critical thinking skills and you wouldn't know a fallacy if it bucked (ryhmes with f*cked) you in your arse. The irony is that the Lone Nut Conspiracy Theory has a hold of you Neo.

I have no intention of engaging with you tin foil hat LNers at least until you grow up and learn how to use logic to make an argument. Maybe then you can debate like an adult. Until then, later dude.

 
He's not a lone nutter. He believes the KGB/Soviets were behind the assassination. Or a group of them; the so-called "inner" KGB. That is to say, he's a conspiracist.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on March 02, 2025, 10:04:10 PM
He's not a lone nutter. He believes the KGB/Soviets were behind the assassination. Or a group of them; the so-called "inner" KGB. That is to say, he's a conspiracist.

If you're referring to me, you've misread me.

My believing that a probable KGB mole by the name of Bruce Leonard Solie (look him up) in the CIA's mole-hunting Office of Security sent (or duped his confidant, protégé, and mole-hunting subordinate, James Angleton, into sending) Oswald to Moscow in 1959 as an ostensible "dangle" in a planned-to-fail hunt for "Popov's U-2 Mole" (Solie) in the wrong part of the CIA -- which mole hunt lasted nine years, tore the CIA apart and drove Angleton nuts -- doesn't necessarily mean that I believe the KGB was behind the JFKA (although there are some tantalizing clues that it was).

The "Inner KGB" that you alluded to (Department D of the First Chief Directorate -- foreign intelligence -- today's SVR) was created in 1959 when the Kremlin realized that the USSR and the Warsaw Pact couldn't defeat the U.S. and NATO militarily and decided to get us to get us to tear ourselves apart, instead (Can you say Donald J. Trump?). General Gribanov of the more secretive Second Chief Directorate (domestic intelligence and overall counterintelligence -- today's FSB), not to be outdone, set up his own Sun Tzu-based Department 14 in the SCD, and, as soon as CIA's spy Oleg Penkovsky had been "trapped like a bear in its den" in such a way as to not reveal who in U.S. or British intelligence had betrayed him within two weeks of his April 1961 recruitment, sent Aleksei Kulak (J. Edgar Hoover's shielded-from-CIA FEDORA) and Dmitry Polyakov (TOPHAT) to the FBI's NYC field office to "volunteer" to spy for it at the U.N.

Six months after KGB Major Anatoliy Golitsyn's 12/15/61 defection to the U.S., Gribanov sent false-defector-in-place Yuri Nosenko to the CIA in Geneva to discredit what Golitsyn was telling Angleton about penetrations of U.S. Intelligence and the intelligence services of our NATO allies, which intel, unfortunately, Angleton was naively sharing with the aforementioned Bruce Leonard Solie (do remember to look him up) just as he'd shared intel with his earlier father figure, Kim Philby.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Steve M. Galbraith on March 02, 2025, 11:55:04 PM
If you're referring to me, you've misread me.

My believing that a probable KGB mole by the name of Bruce Leonard Solie (look him up) in the CIA's mole-hunting Office of Security sent (or duped his confidant, protégé, and mole-hunting subordinate, James Angleton, into sending) Oswald to Moscow in 1959 as an ostensible "dangle" in a planned-to-fail hunt for "Popov's U-2 Mole" (Solie) in the wrong part of the CIA -- which mole hunt lasted nine years, tore the CIA apart and drove Angleton nuts -- doesn't necessarily mean that I believe the KGB was behind the JFKA (although there are some tantalizing clues that it was).

The "Inner KGB" that you alluded to (Department D of the First Chief Directorate -- foreign intelligence -- today's SVR) was created in 1959 when the Kremlin realized that the USSR and the Warsaw Pact couldn't defeat the U.S. and NATO militarily and decided to get us to get us to tear ourselves apart, instead (Can you say Donald J. Trump?). General Gribanov of the more secretive Second Chief Directorate (domestic intelligence and overall counterintelligence -- today's FSB), not to be outdone, set up his own Sun Tzu-based Department 14 in the SCD, and, as soon as CIA's spy Oleg Penkovsky had been "trapped like a bear in its den" in such a way as to not reveal who in U.S. or British intelligence had betrayed him within two weeks of his April 1961 recruitment, sent Aleksei Kulak (J. Edgar Hoover's shielded-from-CIA FEDORA) and Dmitry Polyakov (TOPHAT) to the FBI's NYC field office to "volunteer" to spy for it at the U.N.

Six months after KGB Major Anatoliy Golitsyn's 12/15/61 defection to the U.S., Gribanov sent false-defector-in-place Yuri Nosenko to the CIA in Geneva to discredit what Golitsyn was telling Angleton about penetrations of U.S. Intelligence and the intelligence services of our NATO allies, which intel, unfortunately, Angleton was naively sharing with the aforementioned Bruce Leonard Solie (do remember to look him up) just as he'd shared intel with his earlier father figure, Kim Philby.
You've said before - if I recall the details - that, among other things, the Soviets connected Oswald to Kostikov through the CIA monitored phone call in Mexico City to prevent a fuller investigation out of a fear that an investigation would lead back to Kostikov and Department Thirteen. And from there to WWIII. You've also said Nosenko was a false defector sent in part to mislead the CIA about their relationship with Oswald.

Why did the Soviets do this if they weren't involved?

If I have the above wrong you can of course correct me.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on March 03, 2025, 12:37:13 AM
You've said before - if I recall the details - that, among other things, the Soviets connected Oswald to Kostikov through the CIA monitored phone call in Mexico City to prevent a fuller investigation out of a fear that an investigation would lead back to Kostikov and Department Thirteen. And from there to WWIII. You've also said Nosenko was a false defector sent in part to mislead the CIA about their relationship with Oswald.

Why did the Soviets do this if they weren't involved?

If I have the above wrong you can of course correct me.

Not only that, but KGB true defector Pyotr Deriabin (1954) wrote a couple of days after the assassination that (former KGB "swallow") Marina had to be at least a low-level KGB informant to be permitted to marry Oswald and leave the USSR with him, and, according to Richard Russell in his book, "The Man Who Knew Too Much," CIA counterintelligence analyst Clare Edward Petty read some WW II VENONA decrypts in the early 1970s which convinced him that GdM was very probably a long-term KGB "illegal."

I mean, I mean, I mean . . . how equivocal do you want me to be? (LOL)

The truly important thing, however, is that whether or not the KGB (or the DGI) killed JFK, the former has been "making hay" out of the anomaly-replete assassination since virtually Day One, and the tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories is has promulgated and encouraged over the past sixty years have helped to make cynical, paranoiac and apathetic our body politic to such a degree that "former" KGB officer Vladimir Putin was able to install The Traitorous Orange Dude as our "president" in 2017 and 2025.

IMHO, Russia won The Cold War on 5 November 2024.

Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Steve M. Galbraith on March 03, 2025, 01:16:09 AM
Not only that, but KGB true defector Pyotr Deriabin (1954) wrote a couple of days after the assassination that (former KGB "swallow") Marina had to be at least a low-level KGB informant to be permitted to marry Oswald and leave the USSR with him, and, according to Richard Russell in his book, "The Man Who Knew Too Much," CIA counterintelligence analyst Clare Edward Petty read some WW II VENONA decrypts in the early 1970s which convinced him that GdM was very probably a long-term KGB "illegal."

I mean, I mean, I mean . . . how equivocal do you want me to be? (LOL)

The truly important thing, however, is that whether or not the KGB (or the DGI) killed JFK, the former has been "making hay" out of the anomaly-replete assassination since virtually Day One, and the tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories is has promulgated and encouraged over the past sixty years have helped to make cynical, paranoiac and apathetic our body politic to such an extent that "former" KGB officer Vladimir Putin was able to install The Traitorous Orange Dude as our "president" in 2017 and 2024.

IMHO, Russia won The Cold War on 5 November 2024.
So I didn't misread you. You *do* believe there was a Soviet role in Oswald's act. That is, a conspiracy.

As to the Venona intercepts: the names in those messages have been identified (largely by the historians Haynes and Klehr). DeMohrenschildt isn't among them. Although the identification is still a work in progress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Americans_in_the_Venona_papers
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on March 03, 2025, 01:46:25 AM
So, I didn't misread you. You *do* believe there was a Soviet role in Oswald's act.

Correction: I *do* believe that there *may* have been a Soviet role in Oswald's act.

For all of the reasons I mentioned, above.

Quote
As to the Venona intercepts: the names in those messages have been identified (largely by the historian Haynes and Klehr). DeMohrenschild isn't among them.

I don't have access to the VENONA decrypts Russell was referring to.

All I know is that he said that in Petty's opinion, GdM matched the description of an NKVD "illegal" who:

1) Was from "Poland," or some-such country.

2) Was in the U.S. before WW II.

3) Had lived in Mexico during WW II.

4) Was a real "wheeler-dealer."


Factoids:

George "von" Mohrenschildt was born in Mazyr, Belarus, about 300 miles east of the Polish border.

He immigrated to the U.S. in May 1938.

He and his girlfriend, Lilia Larin, lived in Mexico for several months in 1942.

He was an insurance salesman.

He marketed his own artwork.

He was a sugar speculator.

He was an oil speculator.

He was a film producer.

And . . . gasp . . . he married at least one woman for her substantial moo-la (sp?),

 
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Steve M. Galbraith on March 03, 2025, 04:01:04 PM
Correction: I *do* believe that there *may* have been a Soviet role in Oswald's act.

For all of the reasons I mentioned, above.

I don't have access to the VENONA decrypts Russell was referring to.

All I know is that he said that in Petty's opinion, GdM matched the description of an NKVD "illegal" who:

1) Was from "Poland," or some-such country.

2) Was in the U.S. before WW II.

3) Had lived in Mexico during WW II.

4) Was a real "wheeler-dealer."


Factoids:

George "von" Mohrenschildt was born in Mazyr, Belarus, about 300 miles east of the Polish border.

He immigrated to the U.S. in May 1938.

He and his girlfriend, Lilia Larin, lived in Mexico for several months in 1942.

He was an insurance salesman.

He marketed his own artwork.

He was a sugar speculator.

He was an oil speculator.

He was a film producer.

And . . . gasp . . . he married at least one woman for her substantial moo-la (sp?),
All of the intercepts/decrypts have been released. You can read them here: https://www.nsa.gov/Helpful-Links/NSA-FOIA/Declassification-Transparency-Initiatives/Historical-Releases/Venona/

The problem is identifying the code names. Almost all of that, as I understand it, has been done by historians, chiefly by John Haynes and Harvey Klehr. They have a list of over 300 names in their book. Not all were agents. For example, FDR's code name was identified (capitan). I would think if DeMorenschildt's name was hinted at they would have found it.

You're relying too much on conspiracy authors who simply, for me, have a rather, let's say, shaky grasp of things. People like Russell and Simpich et al. They can see a CIA conspiracy in a bowl of corn flakes. For most of us, it's just breakfast.
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on March 03, 2025, 04:30:55 PM
You're relying too much on conspiracy authors who simply, for me, have a rather, let's say, shaky grasp of things. People like Russell and Simpich et al. They can see a CIA conspiracy in a bowl of corn flakes. For most of us, it's just breakfast.

You've got to learn how to separate the kernels from the slop, Steven.

Even full-on Pinko and Fascist CT "researchers" sometimes slip up and share with you something that fits in with your own personal theory.

Mine?

That the world-class humanitarian organization formerly known as the KGB* made hay from the anomaly-replete JFKA, and by doing so and concomitantly promulgating other body politic-rending CTs, eventually enabled "former" KGB officer (you knew that, right?) Vladimir Putin to install The Traitorous Orange Dude as our "president" in 2017 and 2025.

Do you like what he's done so far?

What it boils down to, Steven, is that Russia won The Cold War on 5 November 2024.

-- Tom

PS Ask yourself "Why would left-leaning Dick Russell write in his JFKA CT book that a CIA Counterintelligence analyst had determined in the early 1970s that GdM was very probably a long-term KGB 'illegal''?

Seems kinda counter-productive to me.

You?

*Today's SVR and FSB
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Zeon Mason on March 04, 2025, 12:51:55 AM
@Tom: Do you really think Kruschev wanted JFK terminated?
Are you suggesting KGB acted without permission from Kruschev?
What would they gain by removing JFK who had just made a deal that was a win for Kruschev by allowing Cuba to remain Communist and JFK promoting more cooperation with the USSR in outer space?
Title: Re: Why the first shot missed
Post by: Tom Graves on March 04, 2025, 05:24:38 AM
@Tom: Do you really think Kruschev wanted JFK terminated?
Are you suggesting KGB acted without permission from Kruschev?
What would they gain by removing JFK who had just made a deal that was a win for Kruschev by allowing Cuba to remain Communist and JFK promoting more cooperation with the USSR in outer space?

Read Mark Riebling's 1994 book, Wedge: The Secret War Between the FBI and CIA.

It's free-to-read. Just google "riebling" and "wedge" and "archive" simultaneously.

Go to page 208 by searching for "puzo" as "Mario Puzo." Go back a page and start there.