Is the Crimea Land Bridge a Trap?
As an armchair strategist, I am intrigued a bit to hear of Russia attempting to establish a land bridge from Russia, running along the north cost of the Sea of Azov, to the neck of the Crimea. This would allow an all-land communication from Russia to the Crimea. Looking at the map of the Ukraine campaign, I wonder if this is a good idea.
The land bridge is a narrow strip of land, about 50 miles wide, running for about 100 miles or so. Immediately behind it is the Sea of Azov. A Ukrainian offensive, one from the west, one from the east, could, after a relatively short advance, cut off this land bridge at either end.
The Sea of Azov is interesting. It is, roughly 150 miles long, west to east and 100 miles wide, north to south. It is the world’s most shallow sea. Average depth, 23 feet. Deepest depth, 46 feet. A very difficult stretch of coast to evacuate an army from, I would image. Deep enough that wading 100 miles across it is out of the question. But too shallow for ships to approach close enough to. A much more difficult prospect than the British had at Dunkirk in 1940. And I don’t know if the Russians have the equivalent of a fleet of “Little Ships” that could bail them out.
Currently, the Russians are withdrawing their troops from the Kiev area. It is speculated that these troops may be used to reinforce Russian offensives in the East. Others think these troops are a spent force. I suspect the later is a lot closer to the truth. The defenders of Kiev, however, does not seem to be a spent force. And their spirit will be strengthened, a lot, I think, by seeing the atrocities of the Russians against civilians close at hand. I expect many of them to be redeployed to the East, possibility near the Sea of Azov, in the near future.
We may be seeing the beginning of a military disaster of historical proportions. And the attempt to seize this “Land Bridge” may become known as one of the great strategic blunders of all time, on par with France’s Dyle Plan with the Breda variant. We will see in the coming weeks.
