Why the first shot missed

[Charles Collins]

I revised and corrected the annotation for the bottom image.. This should make it easier of others, and myself too, to visualize.

Sorry, Charles. I haven't forgotten your request. My placement of the pipes is a visual guess. Obviously use at own risk.

I sent the Sixth Museum a request for measurements, and the curator, who's really helpful, told me just now that he will get back to me with true measurements when they access that area for maintenance. I'll PM those to you when I get them. Meanwhile you can use what I am using or build off it.

The westward pipe is a simple vertical. As I have it, the total height of the coupling is 3 1/4". I have the bottom of the coupling 8 13/16" above the floor (just make it 8 3/4" or 9", whatever). The coupling doesn't interfere with a hypothetical shooter; I put the coupling in there for the sake of completeness and haven't bothered with the bolts.

For the east pipe, I drew straight lines and angled them and placed them where I thought the center of the pipe ran. I then used SketchUp's "Follow-Me" tool to create the pipe by having a 2" circle follow the "path" of the lines. The Sketchup Tool decided I needed two elbows at each of the two bends. The closest any part of the first bend is to the floor is 13".

There is something wrong with my measurements. If the pipes are 2", then the planks have to be about 3". Or the planks are correct and the pipes needs to be a bit wider. Anyway, the key is how the westward pipe is relative to the window's masonry opening, which I think is fairly close now. That's the pipe that interferes.

I am trying to visualize the west conduit only, not concerned with the east conduit at this time. If I understand the meaning of your measurements, the west conduit would be slanting slightly away from the south wall as it rises towards the seventh floor. The difference being about 3-1/2” further away from the south wall at the top (9-1/8” minus the 5-5/8” at the 6th floor). It also appears to slant away from the east wall slightly by about 2-7/8” (34-7/8” minus the 32” estimate by Jerry). All of my estimated distances are to the nearest outside surfaces to the respective walls. Does the above seem to be reasonably accurate given the information that we currently have? Please let me know. Thanks!

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.

My above feb2021 wordage was early in my jfk accidental homicide study. I need to bring things up to date.
Today i know that Oswald's shot-1 was at about pseudo Z112, & ricocheted offa the western guyrod of the signal arm at Z113.
Holland said Z103 i think -- i am happy to split the difference.
Holland i think reckoned a ricochet offa the actual signals.
Today i know that the present owner of the original signals (Christopher) wrote that there is no bullet hole or dent in the signals.
Today i know that the main remnant slug of shot-1 made a keyhole shaped hole in the floor of the limo -- between the Connally's jumpseats.
Today i know that the lead splatter hit jfk in the top back right of his head (vizible in xrays).
Re my wordage that Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218 -- today i reckon it was at Z215-216, & hit jfk & Connally at Z218-219.
Hickey's accidental autoburst of at least 4 shots of his AR15 was at say Z300-Z312 -- hit jfk's head at Z312-313.

Re the pipes at the SN affecting Oswald's shot-1 -- i think the pipes might have affected his shot-2 moreso than his shot-1.

[Zeon Mason]

The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.

[Charles Collins]

The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.

The most stable position (by far) available at that location would have been sitting on box D and using the Rolling Readers box on top of box C as a support for his left forearm. Based on my experiments, the western most pipe (electrical conduit) would have been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). The corner of the other Rolling Readers box that was sitting on the window ledge would have also been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). While sitting on box D neither the conduit or the corner of the window box should have been a factor for a shot much later than ~Z133.

[Zeon Mason]

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

[Joe Elliott]

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376

[Charles Collins]

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

The steep angle to the Z133 location does (from a sitting position) put the corner of the window sill box in the way. Max Holland proposes a standing position for an early shot. However, a sitting position with support for the left arm is much more stable. And I find it hard to believe that the assassin would intentionally switch from a standing position to a sitting position during the few seconds available to him to fire the rifle. I don’t believe that he had an opportunity to practice his intended shots while holding the rifle because this would have potentially been seen by the spectators below on the street and given his intentions away before he could execute them.

When I discovered the interference from the box corner with my 3D computer model, my first thoughts were that he was probably tracking the target with his rifle (to get it aimed properly) and the corner of the box interfered, causing an inadvertent shot to miss badly. And that is why I started this thread a long time ago. Lately, I have been experimenting further and have some interesting thoughts that I plan to share soon. So, stay tuned…

[Charles Collins]

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376

Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.