Why the first shot missed

[Charles Collins]

The first shot occurring earlier than the WC originally thought makes a lot of sense to me. So I began looking for visual evidence of this shot around the likely time of Z160. Also, the following tends to indicate the shot took place even earlier than Z160:

1.) Howard Brennan's affidavit of 11/22/63 that states JFK's back was inline with the last window (west) of the south side of the TSBD when the first shot sounded.

2.) The interesting work of Max Holland, which is described in this well written article by Kenneth R. Scearce:

      http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/scearce.htm

      The above article includes some well done clips of the Zapruder film.

3.)  This Willis Lamm article is interesting also:

       http://www.kbrhorse.net/signals/eagle03a.htm

4.)  The action of D.V. Harkness , the traffic cop assigned to the intersection of Main and Houston. From the first time I saw the Hughes film clip, many years ago, I wondered what had caused  Harkness to suddenly turn away from his primary duty of the
      control of the intersection and walk towards where the limousine was traveling while apparently looking very intently for something. And whether he had just heard the sound of the first shot. If so, his actions would fit what I might expect.

5.)  The more I considered this, the more convinced I am that the fraction of a second stop/start of Hughes' camera is highly unusual and therefore it could be a startle reaction to the sound of the first shot. I checked Dale Meyers' synchronization report of the films and he reports that there are six frames missing due to this stop/start. There are other items of evidence to support this theory. The image below will illustrate some of what I am going to write:



As illustrated above, the Tina Towner film ends just barely before the Hughes Film split-second break. Tina has said that the first shot occured just after she stopped filming. At essentially the same time as the Hughes film split second break, the Dorman film shows one extremely blurred frame, which I believe indicates a sudden jerk (startle reaction to the first shot) before stopping for 49 frames.

Brennan's first shot description in the 11/22/63 affidavit, the films' anomalies, and the Harkness reaction all happen just before the Zapruder film begins. Also Rosemary Willis already has her head turned sharply, looking back over her right shoulder in the direction of the TSBD, in frame Z133, the first frame of that sequence. She has said she turned her head to look back there when she heard the first shot.

Based on the above, when I created the 3D mock-up of the sniper's nest, out of curiosity, I located the limo in line with Brennan's position and the last windows of the south face of the TSBD. I wanted to see if the sniper had a good view of JFK at that point in time, he did. I have always thought that even if the sniper missed, this shot should have at least hit the limo somewhere. What became apparent to me is that if the sniper took the first shot at that point while tracking the target from his left to right, the small box is in the way of the rifle. It appears to me that the likely reason the first shot missed is that the rifle was stopped by colliding with the box, but the target kept moving. So the bullet would have hit behind the limo on the road. Here are some images to illustrate what I am saying:





The three limos represent it's locations at: shot #1 (just before Z133), shot #2 (at Z225), and shot #3 (at Z313). You can see Brennan's location on top of the fence. The other two men represent Dillard's positions at his two photos immediately after the shots. They also give an idea of the path of the vehicles in the motorcade. I used elevations and measurements of distances from Roberdeau's map. And photos of the sniper's nest. The elevation of the sniper's eyes is 36 inches, this corresponds with my own eyes when sitting on a box the same height as the one the sniper sat on. I am roughly the same height as Oswald.

I encourage others to make their own mock ups of the sniper's nest to see if they end up with something similar to mine and let us know. The program that I am using is free. It is called SweetHome 3D. I think I did have to pay a few bucks for some library items. And I found the rifle for free online. I had to improvise some things. The limo is an example.

[Gary Craig]

http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do?absPageId=69157&imageOnly=true

"Secret Service Agent, Paul E. Landis. Jr., wrote a statement on the shooting dated 11/30/63. Landis was in the follow-up car,
behind the Presidential Limo, on the outside running board on the right. He indicated that the first shot "sounded like the
report of a high- powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder."

According to his statement, the shot he identified as number two might have come from a different direction.

He said: "I still was not certain from which direction the second shot came, but my reaction at this time was that the shot
came from somewhere towards the front right hand side of the road."

[Jack Nessan]

http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do?absPageId=69157&imageOnly=true

"Secret Service Agent, Paul E. Landis. Jr., wrote a statement on the shooting dated 11/30/63. Landis was in the follow-up car,
behind the Presidential Limo, on the outside running board on the right. He indicated that the first shot "sounded like the
report of a high- powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder."

According to his statement, the shot he identified as number two might have come from a different direction.

He said: "I still was not certain from which direction the second shot came, but my reaction at this time was that the shot
came from somewhere towards the front right hand side of the road."

Paul Landis stated initially on 11/27 that there was only two shots. He somewhat added a third shot later.

Statement of Special Agent Paul E. Landis, Jr., United States Secret Service, concerning his activities and official duties on November 22, 1963.

"...At this moment I heard what sounded like the report of a high-powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder. When I heard the sound there was no question in my mind what it was. My first glance was at the President, as I was practically looking in his direction anyway. I saw him moving in a manner which I thought was to look in the direction of the sound. I did not realize that President Kennedy had been shot at this point....."

......I think I recall Special Agent Jack Ready saying, "What was it? A fire cracker?" I remarked ''I don't know, I don't see any smoke." All during this time I was scanning the crowd and returning my gaze to the President's car. By then I think I had my gun out, but I do not recall exactly when it was drawn. I then thought that maybe one of the cars in the motorcade had had a blowout that had echoed off the buildings. I looked at the front right tire of the President's car and saw it was alright and glanced to see the right rear tire but could not as the follow-up car was too close. In fact, from my position on the running board of the follow-up car I could not see the rear bumper of the President's car. I glanced back towards the President, he still appeared upright in his seat, leaning slightly towards Mrs. Kennedy. It was at this moment that I heard a second report and saw the President's head split open and pieces of flesh and blood flying through the air. I also remember Special Agent Clinton Hill attempting to climb onto the back of the car at the time the second shot was fired. I would guess that the time between the first and second shot was approximately four or five seconds.


"My immediate thought was that the President could not possibly be alive after being hit like he was. I still was not certain from which direction the second shot came, but my reaction at this time was that the shot came from somewhere towards the front, right-hand side of the road."

-------------------------------

11/30 ---The addition to his statement to conform to what became the popular belief that there was three shots. Even after inserting the additional shot, he still referred to there only having been two shots:
"----All during this time I continued to scan the crowd, returning my gaze towards the President's car. It must have been another second or two before the next shot was fired because, as I recall having seen nothing out of the ordinary, I then thought that maybe one of the cars in the motorcade had had a blowout that had echoed off the buildings. I looked at the right front tire of the President's car and saw it was all right. I then glanced to see the right rear tire, but could not because the Follow-up car was too close.----

[Thomas Graves]

I find Max Holland's scientific analysis of the cartridge casings' ejection pattern in the reconstructed sniper's nest to be probative of a sharply downward-angled first shot's having occurred a second or two before Z-133.

-- MWT 

[Jack Nessan]

I find Max Holland's scientific analysis of the cartridge casings' ejection pattern in the reconstructed sniper's nest to be probative of a sharply downward-angled first shot's having occurred a second or two before Z-133.

-- MWT 

The shell casing positioning suggests he ejected the Ce 543 empty shell casing while watching for the motorcade to arrive. He then moved to the East and positioned himself behind the rifle rest and prepared to fire at JFK after he turned onto Elm Street.

[Thomas Graves]

The shell casing positioning suggests he ejected the Ce 543 empty shell casing while watching and waiting for the motorcade to arrive. He then moved to the East and positioned himself behind the rifle rest and prepared to fire at JFK after he turned onto Elm Street.

Jack,

I guess you haven't watched The Lost Bullet.

It not only shows how the three casings ended up where they did by ricocheting off the boxes around him, but also shows how he could have sat on one of the boxes he had placed "just so," and leaned way out from it to peek up to the Main and Houston intersection while waiting for the motorcade to arrive.

By holding his rifle or having it near by, standing up from that box would have put him in his first firing position without his even having to take a step, and for his second and third shots, all he would have had to do was kneel down from that standing position.

-- MWT 

[Charles Collins]

I find Max Holland's scientific analysis of the cartridge casings' ejection pattern in the reconstructed sniper's nest to be probative of a sharply downward-angled first shot's having occurred a second or two before Z-133.

-- MWT 

I agree.

[Jack Nessan]

Jack,

I guess you haven't watched The Lost Bullet.

It not only shows how the three casings ended up where they did by ricocheting off the boxes around him, but also shows how he could have sat on one of the boxes he had placed "just so," and leaned out from it to peek out the window up Houston Street while waiting for the motorcade to arrive.

By holding his rifle or having it near by, standing up from that box would have put him in his first firing position without his even having to take a step, and for his second and third shots, all he would have had to do was kneel down from that standing position.

-- MWT 

What if the original premise for the test is wrong? The WC and the HSCA both question the number of shots.

The marks and lack of them on CE 543 also leaves the premise in doubt.

Warren Commission

The physical and other evidence examined by the Commission compels the conclusion that at least two shots were fired. As discussed previously, the nearly whole bullet discovered at Parkland Hospital and the two larger fragments found in the Presidential automobile, which were identified as coming from the assassination rifle, came from at least two separate bullets and possibly from three. The most convincing evidence relating to the number of shots was provided by the presence on the sixth floor of three spent cartridges which were demonstrated to have been fired by the same rifle that fired the bullets which caused the wounds. It is possible that the assassin carried an empty shell in the rifle and fired only two shots, with the witnesses hearing multiple noises made by the same shot. Soon after the three
Page 111
empty cartridges were found, officials at the scene decided that three shots were fired, and that conclusion was widely circulated by the press. The eyewitness testimony may be subconsciously colored by the extensive publicity given the conclusion that three shots were fired. Nevertheless, the preponderance of the evidence, in particular the three spent cartridges, led the Commission to conclude that there were three shots fired

================================================

HSCA



"The buildings around the Plaza caused strong reverberations
or echoes that followed the initial sound by from 0.5 to 1.5 sec.
While these reflections caused no confusion to our listeners
who were prepared and expected to hear them they may well
inflated the number of shots reported by the suprised witnesses
during the assassination" HSCA Earwitness Analysis Report, pgs 135-137

"All observers rated the rifle shots as very, very loud and
they were unable to understand how they could have been described
as a firecracker or backfire." HSCA Earwitness Analysis Report, pg 148




"'While recognizing the substantial number
of people who reported shots originating from the knoll the committee
also believed the process of collecting witness testimony was such
that it would be unwise to place substantial reliance upon it. The
witnesses were interviewed over a substantial period of time some of
them several days even weeks after the assassination By that time
numerous accounts of the number and direction of the shots had been
published. The committee believed that the witnesses memories and
testimony on the number, direction, and timing of the shots may have
been substantially influenced by the intervening publicity concern
ing the events of November 22 1963"   HSCA Final Report- pg 87