First shot reactions

[Louis Earl]

Can someone help me out with a fundamental question.  A substantial majority of critics and WC supporters appear to agree that the first shot missed.  I can understand that the earlier that shot occurred, the longer a SN shooter had to fire 2 more shots till 313.  Other than that, what is the significance of the timing of the first shot.

[Charles Collins]

Can someone help me out with a fundamental question.  A substantial majority of critics and WC supporters appear to agree that the first shot missed.  I can understand that the earlier that shot occurred, the longer a SN shooter had to fire 2 more shots till 313.  Other than that, what is the significance of the timing of the first shot.

Good question Louis. Speaking for myself, it began as a curiosity to see if I could find visual evidence of the timing of the first shot in the photographic record. This is mostly to satisfy myself, not necessarily to convince others. I share my findings and opinions as food for thought and conversation. And I encourage others to consider them and think for themselves.

[Charles Collins]

By virtue of what others are doing means JFK did the same? Even if Jackie's change in expression between Willis 04 and Croft was one of concern, she could be worried some people in the street are about to be mowed down by Martin's motorcycle.



In any case, there is no clear indication that Jackie's expression does change between Willis 04 and Croft.

Jim Towner Slide

Willis 04 Slide (Z157)

Robert Croft Slide (Z202)

We can compare the Jim Towner and Croft slides because they of comparable quality and focus:



There is a slight change but Jackie is still smiling. And I would say no look of concern. She might have been smiling a little more in the Towner slide because Tina Towner was filming her.

Governor Connally doesn't appear to have smiled since Main and Houston. He's probably feeling the effects of 30-minutes in that jump seat.

There was also a crowd of people to their left who were hoping to make contact as the limousine straightened up. They were possibly waving and shouting as it was their turn to be seen by the Kennedys. In the early Z-140s, Nellie makes a small turn to look forward. Not a big deal.

Which SS agents are turning? Myers and Vaughan address the turns of Ready, Bennett and Hickey here. Kellerman straightens his head up in the late-Z140s, where it remains, slightly looking towards his right, as they approach the sign.


Here are the three clearest frames before the "break out in a smile" frame of Z167 (the hand-lifting begins Z170). No rationale have been given for the claim that Kennedy has a "look of concern" or even that he's not smiling in those frames.

Mockery. I see. Kennedy is already smiling before he turns his head rightward to the crowd (and maybe smiling while he was looking leftward). The change in shadow on his face as his head got to its position in Z167 made it seem he broke out in a smile that moment.

I am a little surprised that you don’t see the change in Jackie’s expression. When shown your excellent graphic, my wife said that she looks “happy” in the Towner photo and “concerned” in the Croft photo. Those are her words with no leading questions from me.

The two SS agents that I was referring to are Hickey and Kellerman. I have already described their reactions earlier in this thread.

[Andrew Mason]

I am a little surprised that you don’t see the change in Jackie’s expression. When shown your excellent graphic, my wife said that she looks “happy” in the Towner photo and “concerned” in the Croft photo. Those are her words with no leading questions from me.

It is dangerous to try to discern mood from a single photo. In Towner Jackie is smiling in a way that was likely not sustained during the entire motorcade. So a change in her facial expression does not mean much.  The President waved and smiled after that. Mary Woodward said that she shouted to the President and both he and Jackie turned and smiled and waved at them.  That occurs after Croft 162 as seen in the zfilm.

There is too much evidence against an early first shot.
 
1.  First of all you have all the motorcade witnesses who put their car much later in the turn than z150-160 at the time of the first shot (see my earlier post).
2.  Then you have all the people along Elm who said the had just passed them or was just passing or was approaching them or was opposite the Thornton sign or JFK was "between me and the Stemmons sign" putting the shot after but close to z190.
3.  Then you have all the witnesses who said that JFK immediately reacted to the first shot before the second by bringing his hands to his chest/neck, moving left, blank stare, surprised look, appeared to duck etc.
4.  Then you have the photographers who put the first shot a perceptible time after they took their photos/film (Hughes, Betzner and Croft) which puts the first shot after z186.
5.  Then you have all the witnesses (over 40) who said that the last two shots were much closer together than the first two, which puts the second shot after z225 when JFK is seen to be reacting to the bullet that struck him.

Each these five independent bodies of witness evidence is inconsistent with a first shot before z186-190. And they are all consistent with each other. If you ignore this evidence you will not be able to determine the correct shot pattern.  The correct shot pattern is consistent with Oswald firing all three shots and inconsistent with the SBT.

[Royell Storing]

Having the AR-15 flat on the floor doesn't count as "within easy reach of me". William Manchester said in his book: "on the seat between them [Bennett and Hickey] lay an AR-15 .233 automatic rifle." Clint Hill said the AR-15 was: "Between the two agents in the rear seat."

Hickey got hold of the weapon very quickly; no one said he bent down out of sight to reach to the bottom of the floor. Sen. Yarborough, riding in the Vice Presidential car behind the Queen Mary, said: "After the shooting, one of the Secret Service men sitting down in the car in front of us pulled out an automatic rifle or weapon and looked backward." Also in the VP vehicle was Rufus Youngblood, who: "observed SA Hickey in the Presidential follow-up car poised on the car with the AR-15 rifle looking toward the buildings."

Bennett wrote: "I immediately hollered 'he's hit' and reached for the AR-15 located on the floor of the rear seat. Special Agent Hickey had already picked-up the AR-I5." Combine with what Manchester and Hill said, and the weapon being within "easy reach" and quick retrieval. So it could be between the two agents on the back seat with an end on the center hump.

Seems unlikely to me that the AR-15 was on the floor in front of Hickey. That would impede with him as he sat normally (which we know he did from pictures), not to mention making the AR-15 awkward to reach.

So Hickey wasn't seated on a footlocker and his feet could be bracing against the jump-seat.

    SA Hickey's OWN "Official Report" stands vs Manchester's Book. Hickey's Official Report said, " I reached to the BOTTOM of the car....". The "BOTTOM" would be the floorboard of the Queen Mary. Bearing in mind the length of the AR-15 barrel alone is roughly 2 feet long would preclude the weapon to just be laying between the SS Agents atop the backseat. Not to mention the safety factor of the weapon already being in a  Locked-N-Loaded state. Standing the weapon UP between the SS Agents would also be a safety concern due to the HUMP from the driveshaft running down the floorboard of the vehicle. Every time the Queen Mary turned a corner the weapon would be in danger of falling over or being put into motion/tilting. Aside from the safety concern, this would also make the weapon difficult to grasp if a sudden situation merited such instantaneous action on the part of an SS Agent .

[Charles Collins]

It is dangerous to try to discern mood from a single photo. In Towner Jackie is smiling in a way that was likely not sustained during the entire motorcade. So a change in her facial expression does not mean much.  The President waved and smiled after that. Mary Woodward said that she shouted to the President and both he and Jackie turned and smiled and waved at them.  That occurs after Croft 162 as seen in the zfilm.

There is too much evidence against an early first shot.
 
1.  First of all you have all the motorcade witnesses who put their car much later in the turn than z150-160 at the time of the first shot (see my earlier post).
2.  Then you have all the people along Elm who said the had just passed them or was just passing or was approaching them or was opposite the Thornton sign or JFK was "between me and the Stemmons sign" putting the shot after but close to z190.
3.  Then you have all the witnesses who said that JFK immediately reacted to the first shot before the second by bringing his hands to his chest/neck, moving left, blank stare, surprised look, appeared to duck etc.
4.  Then you have the photographers who put the first shot a perceptible time after they took their photos/film (Hughes, Betzner and Croft) which puts the first shot after z186.
5.  Then you have all the witnesses (over 40) who said that the last two shots were much closer together than the first two, which puts the second shot after z225 when JFK is seen to be reacting to the bullet that struck him.

Each these five independent bodies of witness evidence is inconsistent with a first shot before z186-190. And they are all consistent with each other. If you ignore this evidence you will not be able to determine the correct shot pattern.  The correct shot pattern is consistent with Oswald firing all three shots and inconsistent with the SBT.

It is dangerous to try to discern mood from a single photo. In Towner Jackie is smiling in a way that was likely not sustained during the entire motorcade. So a change in her facial expression does not mean much.

There are three photos (including Willis 4 in which Jackie is still smiling). Plus all the other evidence I have previously outlined earlier in this thread. Therefore I am not relying on a single photo.


The President waved and smiled after that. Mary Woodward said that she shouted to the President and both he and Jackie turned and smiled and waved at them.  That occurs after Croft 162 as seen in the zfilm.

Like the vast majority of eyewitnesses who have stated their perceptions, most of the occupants of the limo do not appear to have recognized the first shot as a rifle shot. JBC is an exception. Therefore it is reasonable for them to re-engage with the crowd after quickly looking around with concerned expressions and not seeing anything alarming.

There is too much evidence against an early first shot.

I am focusing on visual evidence.

[Andrew Mason]

It is dangerous to try to discern mood from a single photo. In Towner Jackie is smiling in a way that was likely not sustained during the entire motorcade. So a change in her facial expression does not mean much.

There are three photos (including Willis 4 in which Jackie is still smiling). Plus all the other evidence I have previously outlined earlier in this thread. Therefore I am not relying on a single photo.

You suggested that the Croft photo shows "concern".  Was there another one that showed a similar expression?

The President waved and smiled after that. Mary Woodward said that she shouted to the President and both he and Jackie turned and smiled and waved at them.  That occurs after Croft 162 as seen in the zfilm.

Like the vast majority of eyewitnesses who have stated their perceptions, most of the occupants of the limo do not appear to have recognized the first shot as a rifle shot.

Ok.  But that does not mean they didn't hear it and a few seconds later, after seeing the effects, didn't recognize that it had been a rifle shot.

JBC is an exception. Therefore it is reasonable for them to re-engage with the crowd after quickly looking around with concerned expressions and not seeing anything alarming.

Gov. Connally said he immediately recognized the sound as a rifle shot and feared an assassination was unfolding.  I don't seen anything prior to about z228 that indicates that kind of a reaction.

There is too much evidence against an early first shot.

I am focusing on visual evidence.

If you want to reach an accurate conclusion, you should look at all the evidence.

[Charles Collins]

You suggested that the Croft photo shows "concern".  Was there another one that showed a similar expression?
Ok.  But that does not mean they didn't hear it and a few seconds later, after seeing the effects, didn't recognize that it had been a rifle shot.
Gov. Connally said he immediately recognized the sound as a rifle shot and feared an assassination was unfolding.  I don't seen anything prior to about z228 that indicates that kind of a reaction.
If you want to reach an accurate conclusion, you should look at all the evidence.

You suggested that the Croft photo shows "concern".  Was there another one that showed a similar expression?

Not that I am aware of.

OK.  But that does not mean they didn't hear it and a few seconds later, after seeing the effects, didn't recognize that it had been a rifle shot.

The first shot missed. Therefore the effects were not apparent.

Gov. Connally said he immediately recognized the sound as a rifle shot and feared an assassination was unfolding.  I don't seen anything prior to about z228 that indicates that kind of a reaction.

He snapped his head to the right then to his left (where Croft captured his concerned expression). Then back to his right. His actions and expressions are consistent with recognition of the rifle shot. The only thing he didn’t do was scream for everyone to duck. Instead he said something like oh no, they are going to kill us all. That dialogue only appears to have distracted Jackie for a few seconds.

If you want to reach an accurate conclusion, you should look at all the evidence.

I have been looking at the other evidence. The visual evidence is what I am focused on now.