In the book Passport To Assassination, Nechiporenko says that Nosenko was a drunk who only rose to the heights he did in the KGB because his dad got him there. Then Nosenko left his wife and kids (the first woman he got pregnant he simply up and left without marrying her) in the USSR and defected to the USA where he drank some more at the expense of the american taxpayer while in CIA custody.
Nosenko was probably hard to figure out because he would make up anything and everything to anyone.
Oleg Kalugin - who was in charge of all KGB operations in the US and later defected to America - said the same thing. He said Nosenko's father was a high ranking official under Stalin and had helped promote him. And that he was a drunk and womanizer who was held in low regard but that he did have access to some information that was damaging.
In his book, "Spy Master", Kalugin wrote this: "Nosenko's flight spread panic throughout the KGB. He was branded one of the great traitors of all time, and dozens of KGB officers stationed abroad who had had dealing with Nosenko were recalled. Six officers in the New York station (including myself) were yanked back to Moscow."
Nosenko's claims, from what I've read, were entirely inconsistent and illogical. He once said the KGB never interviewed Oswald but then later said he personally (!?) interviewed Oswald; he said the KGB never monitored Oswald but then said the KGB in Minsk watched Oswald. Completely different accounts. But why would the KGB send someone to say they had no relationship with Oswald? Just say he was questioned, watched closely, viewed as worthless, and sent back. That's a far better cover story (if there was one) than to say what Nosenko said.
The FBI had two very high agents inside the CPUSA: Morris and Jack Childs. Both were completely trusted by Soviet officials who let Morris handle communications and money deliveries between Moscow and the CPUSA. Morris was in Moscow at the time of the assassination and had access to very high level Soviet discussions about the event. The Soviets had complete trust with Morris and consulted him about how they should react. Morris said (from the book "Operation Solo") the Soviets were stunned by the assassination and that they gathered all of the information they had on Oswald. He said he found that the Soviets had no role in the assassination and were worried about being blamed for it.
I think the "Soviets were behind the assassination" theory has no basis whatsoever. Not at this point.