If Oswald Was The Assassin, Did He Plan His Escape From The TSBD Very Well?

[Dan O'meara]

Dear Tom,

I take it as a compliment that the only thing you question about most of the points I make is some dodgy grammar.

The reason for taking the shot on Houston is that it's a far easier shot (you surely agree with this) and if the first one misses there's nowhere for the limo to go. All eyes are on JFK and Jackie apart from those of the Secret Service. If LHO takes aim at the last minute and is set slightly back there is nothing anyone can do before he starts getting shots off. Waiting until they turn on to Elm makes the shot a lot more difficult for a lone assassin. To imagine he is worried about being shot while shooting doesn't make any sense, he must surely have assumed he wasn't getting out of there in one piece once the shooting started. His main concern would've been a clean, easy shot. The one on Houston St.
Waiting for the car to turn onto Elm St. before shooting makes far more sense for the Multi-Assassin scenario.

Why do you think he ran when he had an 'alibi' and would be totally condemning himself?

[Thomas Graves]

Dear Tom,

I take it as a compliment that the only thing you question about most of the points I make is some dodgy grammar.

The reason for taking the shot on Houston is that it's a far easier shot (you surely agree with this) and if the first one misses there's nowhere for the limo to go. All eyes are on JFK and Jackie apart from those of the Secret Service. If LHO takes aim at the last minute and is set slightly back there is nothing anyone can do before he starts getting shots off. Waiting until they turn on to Elm makes the shot a lot more difficult for a lone assassin. To imagine he is worried about being shot while shooting doesn't make any sense, he must surely have assumed he wasn't getting out of there in one piece once the shooting started. His main concern would've been a clean, easy shot. The one on Houston St.
Waiting for the car to turn onto Elm St. before shooting makes far more sense for the Multi-Assassin scenario.

Why do you think he ran when he had an 'alibi' and would be totally condemning himself?

Dear Dan,

Take my critique of your theory as a compliment if you want to.

LOL

I think you will agree with me, though, that unless you're willing to stand in a bent-over, exposed position with a carbine in your hands for several seconds in front of that window, that it would take you a couple of seconds at least to come from out of the shadows and get set up position-wise for a shot from there, whether the limo is coming down Houston towards you or starting to go down Elm away from you, yes?

When we look at the enlarged and enhanced Robert Hughes film, we can see the assassin making his move to get into shooting position as the limo is beginning to negotiate the "hairpin" turn, i.e., when the heavily-armed Secret Service men in the Queen Mary follow-up car would have been unlikely to notice his quick movement up there in that window, thereby ensuring himself a safe (i.e., relatively unobserved) shooting position at a close target, and a couple more shots farther down Elm Street, if necessary.

--  MWT 

[Dan O'meara]

Dear Tom,

It was the avoidance of any sort of critique I was taking as a compliment 

If LHO was the Lone Assassin he would have taken the shot on Houston for two reasons:
1) A shot taken as the limo is approaching the turn onto Elm is an almost guaranteed head shot for anyone familiar with a rifle.
2) It requires a different position in the snipers nest. The shot up Elm requires the shooter to force himself into a corner and have the rifle out of the window. A shot on Houston could be taken from further inside the building. The shooter has plenty of space behind him to move into. No need to be at the window and, therefore, no chance of being spotted before you take the single, easy head shot.

I'm sure you'll agree a shot onto Houston from within the building would have been a snipers choice of shot.

I'll try one last time - why do you think Oswald ran when he had an 'alibi' and knew he would be making himself a prime suspect?

[Thomas Graves]

Dear Tom,

It was the avoidance of any sort of critique I was taking as a compliment 

If LHO was the Lone Assassin he would have taken the shot on Houston for two reasons:
1) A shot taken as the limo is approaching the turn onto Elm is an almost guaranteed head shot for anyone familiar with a rifle.
2) It requires a different position in the snipers nest. The shot up Elm requires the shooter to force himself into a corner and have the rifle out of the window. A shot on Houston could be taken from further inside the building. The shooter has plenty of space behind him to move into. No need to be at the window and, therefore, no chance of being spotted before you take the single, easy head shot.

I'm sure you'll agree a shot onto Houston from within the building would have been a snipers choice of shot.

I'll try one last time - why do you think Oswald ran when he had an 'alibi' and knew he would be making himself a prime suspect?

Dear Dan,

1)  We agree to disagree. Okay?

2)  Gosh, maybe he didn't think his "alibi" was strong enough?

Maybe he thought his KGB handler would be waiting for him at the Texas Theater in about an hour-and-a-half?

Maybe he wanted to get home quickly because, you know know how it is, a boy likes to carry a revolver around with him?

Beats the heck out of me.

--  MWT 

[John Mytton]

The reason for taking the shot on Houston is that it's a far easier shot (you surely agree with this)..............

I don't know where you get your guesses from but the shot at an approaching Limo is in fact much harder.

1. As the Limo turns into Houston the Limo is in the sight for a fraction of a second and recentering after a miss is a pain in the ass.
2. As the Limo travels further down Houston and gets closer to the TSBD, the time for a shot gets progressively less.
3. When the Limo is passing directly by the TSBD, the increased angular velocity is at it's maximum so you can completely forget about the "closest" shot.
4. Which leaves us with the shot as the Limo travels down Elm being the easiest simply because of the incline and the direction of the Limo means that at this angle the Limo stays in the sights the longest and if Oswald misses reacquiring the target is much easier. It's all just simple physics.



JohnM

[Dan O'meara]

Dear John,

Thanks for the fantastic analysis of that particular point. trying to visualise it doesn't reveal how much tracking is needed for the Houston shot but the graphics make it clear. I stand corrected on which was the most difficult shot. It'd be good to hear more from you as a lot of the posts on this thread are like the one that precedes yours.
There are still many points about Oswald's behaviour that day which seem confusing - why he ran, why he was carrying ID that tied him to the weapon etc. - and it would be refreshing to hear some sensible views on this and much more.

[Thomas Graves]

Dear John,

Thanks for the fantastic analysis of that particular point. trying to visualise it doesn't reveal how much tracking is needed for the Houston shot but the graphics make it clear. I stand corrected on which was the most difficult shot. It'd be good to hear more from you as a lot of the posts on this thread are like the one that precedes yours.
There are still many points about Oswald's behaviour that day which seem confusing - why he ran, why he was carrying ID that tied him to the weapon etc. - and it would be refreshing to hear some sensible views on this and much more.

Dear Dan,

Two other possibilities as to why Oswald "blew his perfect alibi" by ... "running away":

1)  Maybe he just wanted to get the heck out of there.

2)  Maybe he realized that he already had a lone wolf/ anti-social reputation with the TSBD employees and that he might stick out like a sore thumb if he did hang around and try to be "inquisitive" / "shocked" / "concerned", especially if anyone said, "Hey, Lee.  Where were YOU when the shooting started?  Did you see anything suspicious?"

Etc.

Regarding John Mytton's analysis:  I agree, but would add that although the shot right after the "hairpin" turn and just before the limo disappeared behind the tree wouldn't be a particularly easy one, it would be worth taking from a solo assassin's point of view.

I believe Oswald did so, and that it was at about 1.4 seconds before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133.

--  MWT 

[John Iacoletti]

Oswald was a reasonably intelligent person.  He may have had mental issues but he was not delusional.  As a result, he understood that the act of assassinating the President of the United States in broad daylight in the presence of law enforcement entailed his own death or arrest.  There was no escaping from that act.  That doesn't mean, as some CTers stupidly suggest, that Oswald would have just sat down and waited to be arrested because he had no realistic hope of getting away.  He did what most criminals do.  He kept moving and played out his hand for as long as he could.  He had nothing to lose by doing that.  Perhaps he entertained some fantasy of reaching Cuba via Mexico and seeking asylum from Castro but the fact that Oswald left most of his money with Marina that morning lends itself to the conclusion that he expected to be arrested or killed. 

Cool story, bro.