If Oswald Was The Assassin, Did He Plan His Escape From The TSBD Very Well?

[John Mytton]

Dear John,

Thanks for the fantastic analysis of that particular point. trying to visualise it doesn't reveal how much tracking is needed for the Houston shot but the graphics make it clear. I stand corrected on which was the most difficult shot. It'd be good to hear more from you as a lot of the posts on this thread are like the one that precedes yours.
There are still many points about Oswald's behaviour that day which seem confusing - why he ran, why he was carrying ID that tied him to the weapon etc. - and it would be refreshing to hear some sensible views on this and much more.

Hi Dan, thanks for the support, there is no doubt that the shot down Elm was the best shot. As for your other questions all we can do is speculate but his actions post assassination were all a classic indication of flight from the scene of a crime.



JohnM

[John Iacoletti]

Hi Dan, thanks for the support, there is no doubt that the shot down Elm was the best shot. As for your other questions all we can do is speculate but his actions post assassination were all a classic indication of flight from the scene of a crime.

What this is, is a classic indication of confirmation bias.

[John Mytton]

What this is, is a classic indication of confirmation bias.

Sure "Iacoletti", whatever it takes, eh?

JohnM

[Charles Collins]

I don't know where you get your guesses from but the shot at an approaching Limo is in fact much harder.

1. As the Limo turns into Houston the Limo is in the sight for a fraction of a second and recentering after a miss is a pain in the ass.
2. As the Limo travels further down Houston and gets closer to the TSBD, the time for a shot gets progressively less.
3. When the Limo is passing directly by the TSBD, the increased angular velocity is at it's maximum so you can completely forget about the "closest" shot.
4. Which leaves us with the shot as the Limo travels down Elm being the easiest simply because of the incline and the direction of the Limo means that at this angle the Limo stays in the sights the longest and if Oswald misses reacquiring the target is much easier. It's all just simple physics.



JohnM

Well done graphics as usual John! LHO had time to visualize the different possibilities in his mind while planning and waiting for the motorcade. And his reported dry fire practice on the screened in porch in New Orleans could have given him an idea about these things beforehand. The choice of the S.E. corner window gave him better concealment for shots down Elm Street. And the surprise element is a key for successful ambush. Shots from behind were a good choice for several reasons.

[Bill Chapman]

Well done graphics as usual John! LHO had time to visualize the different possibilities in his mind while planning and waiting for the motorcade. And his reported dry fire practice on the screened in porch in New Orleans could have given him an idea about these things beforehand. The choice of the S.E. corner window gave him better concealment for shots down Elm Street. And the surprise element is a key for successful ambush. Shots from behind were a good choice for several reasons.

Trying to part Kennedy's hair prematurely (making an attempt with the limo still on Houston) would be tantamount to saying 'Here I am. Come and get me'

[Richard Smith]

When the "reasonably intelligent" LHO was confronted by police seconds after the shooting and found to be calmly sipping a coke on the second floor he would have recognised, as "most criminals" would, what a godsend that was, the next best thing to a solid alibi. "Most criminals" would instantly realise the way to play it is to hang around and tell everyone he'd been seen on the second floor seconds after the shooting by his boss and the police. Instead he chooses to slip out without telling anyone knowing it would make him the prime suspect. If LHO was the sole assassin he deliberately spurned his golden opportunity of an 'alibi' and chose to incriminate himself. He also chose to incriminate himself by carrying in his wallet false ID that linked him to the murder weapon, something "most criminals" and "reasonably intelligent" would definitely not do. Think about that. He knew he'd have to leave the weapon behind so he carried false ID on him linking him to the weapon.
Lastly, if LHO was the lone sniper he would've took the shot with the limo coming towards him down Houston Street. Put yourself in his position, a clear head shot as the target moves slowly towards you or a shot through the trees as he moves away? If you are "reasonably intelligent" the answer is unavoidable.

Oswald knew he was already a person of interest to the FBI even prior to the assassination.  He knew his rifle would be discovered on the 6th floor and likely traced to him.  For all he knew there were perhaps witnesses and other evidence that would soon link him to assassination.  He wasn't going to hang around the TSBD and tell everyone he had a "golden alibi."  That's maybe what an innocent person would have done but Oswald had no such luxury.  Instead he had only one option.  To make like Michael Jackson and beat it while he could. Using his flight to suggest innocence instead of guilt is quite a bizarre argument.

The false ID argument is again basically that the evidence is so strong that we can only conclude that Oswald is innocent!  LOL.  Criminals often do stupid things that get them arrested.  Oswald either forgot that he ordered the rifle under an alias, didn't think it could be traced back to him because he had no idea what records Klein's retained from the transaction or just didn't care because he knew getting arrested or killed was part of the equation in deciding to assassinate the president.  His goose was cooked the moment he pulled the trigger.  What was he going to do?  Assassinate JFK on Friday and just go back to his regular life the next week because he got rid of the fake ID?  Maybe he thought a fake ID would be useful on the lamb.  Regardless, citing the presence of highly incriminating evidence that links Oswald to the crime as the potential basis to exonerate him is a head scratcher. 

[Dan O'meara]

Hi Richard,

thank you for your considered response. Firstly I'd like to make it clear I am not suggesting Oswald was innocent. His actions of slipping away as soon as possible, going home, picking up a revolver then heading out doesn't speak of innocence. How carrying fake ID that links him to the murder weapon suggests innocence really is a head scratcher, as is the notion that an innocent person would hang around telling everyone they had an alibi, why would an innocent person think they needed to do that? Whether he was on his own or with others he was involved to some extent.
I'm also not sure about the characterisation of him as a bumbling criminal. He was intelligent, albeit with mental health issues, but most importantly he was a military man and it was in the military he learned to use a rifle. While the assassination of JFK can obviously be classified a crime it can also be viewed as a military operation and I find it difficult to believe Oswald wouldn't have approached it that way. He would have to plan how to be in the right place at the right time with a rifle without getting caught, he would then plan his getaway - get out of the building, get on a Greyhound, head for Mexico or some prepared location. Heading to the movies is not a getaway plan.
If we assume Qswald was the lone assassin then it is easy to classify as some kind of moron - by shooting from his own place of work he incriminates himself, by slipping away he incriminates himself, he has no getaway plan and in his wallet is false ID linking him to the murder weapon. Moron or intelligent, military trained man?
I find Oswald's use of the word 'Patsy' interesting. As I understand it this word has a very specific meaning - someone being used or manipulated by others. The way he uses the word seems to have a similar meaning to 'Fall Guy' or 'Scapegoat'. He is obviously involved but feels he's being set up. Looking at it this way a lot of the above contradictions can be understood to a certain degree but it leaves us with another conundrum.
If there is a bigger operation going on that is going to be pinned on Oswald how can they have their 'Patsy' just wandering around the TSBD? He could be outside being photographed or talking with colleagues when the assassination occurs. How can the whole TSBD be controlled, making sure nobody else in on the 6th floor and that the 'Patsy' is isolated?

[Charles Collins]

Trying to part Kennedy's hair prematurely (making an attempt with the limo still on Houston) would be tantamount to saying 'Here I am. Come and get me'

Exactly! And for a good example: where was the first law enforcement officer, who correctly identified the TSBD as the source of the shots and responded accordingly by racing his motorcycle to the entrance, when the shots occurred? On Houston Street heading towards the TSBD!