For Michael.....from a couple of pages back I posted.
"When I first started looking at the mortality rates with outbreaks occurring in Western Countries with modern Health Systems that were not overwhelmed at the time, it appeared to me that the overall final death rate would be about 0.7%. That is, when all was said and done COVID-19 would be about 5x more lethal than the annual flu. From memory I did this cursory analysis in Feb-March and it included no data from China."
This was at a time when many were claiming 1.5-2.5%.
Here you go for herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine. Rough calculation for USA.
Population 330M and 70% infection will achieve herd (maybe higher). Roughly 234M.
Infected so far is 9M. Let’s say that is an underestimate due to the appalling testing regime, particularly in the first couple of months. Make it 27M. Just 207M to go. Let’s say you can tolerate 200,000 cases per day and not overload hospital capacity long term (unlikely). That is 1,035 days.....nearly 3 years......from now. Just over an extra 2 million deaths until October 2023. Herd immunity without vaccine.