HOGWASH! You are just too ignorant to do basic math. You keep focusing on case numbers. Look at the death rate, since that is the key stat. I dare you to divide the number of cases by the number of deaths. If you do so, if you know how, you will see that the death rate is now down to 2.3%. Then, go back to the middle of the lockdowns and do the same calculation, and you will see that the death rate was consistently well over 5% for weeks during the lockdowns.
“Do the basic math”. Says Mr. 125.
The death rate is not the key stat. Let’s say we have two populations:
Population A: Death rate: 5 % Population: 50,000,000 Number who get infected: 2,000,000 Number of deaths: 100,000
Population B: Death rate: 1 % Population: 50,000,000 Number who get infected: 20,000,000 Number of deaths: 200,000
Population B will suffer more deaths, even though the death rate is much lower than Population A.
The product of the death rate times the number infected is the key stat, not just the death rate alone.
The improvement of the death rate is caused by the knowledge professional medical personal have gained over time on how to treat the illness. Not by ‘Making things more open’. The death rate appears to have dropped by as much as a factor of 10. Amazing.
Question: 1:
Are the number dying each day in the United States at its highest rate? No. It was around 2,700 hundred a day around April 22. Now, it’s around 1,200 a day.
Question: 2:
Are the number infected each day in the United States at its highest rate? Yes. It is now over 150,000 a day where back in April, it only got around 30,000 a day.
Question: 3:
Why has the number of infected each day gotten so high? Almost certainly because of the cold weather. We are now in the cold and flu season. Things have just gotten a lot worse.
Question 4:
With over 5 times as many people getting infected each day now compared to April, why is the death rate half? Probably because the improvement of knowledge of the medical professional. I hope it’s not because more severe infections tend to occur when the weather if cold.
Also, if the medical staff get overwhelmed by the number of cases, the death rate will start to approach the April levels.
Question 5:
Why be concerned, with our death rate being half that of April? Because the number of infections is doubling in the United States every 16 days. And may increase at a faster rate with ever colder weather.
Now, in mid-November we have 150,000 getting the virus every day and 1,250 a day dying.
By the end of November, we may have 300,000 getting the virus ever day, and 2,500 a day dying, matching, roughly the highest death rate of April.
By mid-December, we may have 600,000 getting the virus every day, and 5,000 a day dying.
By the end of December, we may have 1,200,000 getting the virus every day, and 10,000 a day dying.
Let us assume the hospitals start getting overwhelm by the end of November. The death rate of those who can’t be treated goes up by a factor of 10. Then the number dying each day could be:
By the end of November, 2,500 a day dying.
By the mid-December, not 5,000 a day dying, but 27,500 a day.
By the end of December, not 10,000 a day dying but 77,500 a day.
Will this happen? Yes. Unless people take a lot more precautions. And past history shows that when the infection or death rate goes up, people start taking a lot more precautions. But the sort of precautions followed in the summer, won’t work in the winter. But my best guess is that the death rate won’t get nearly this high, because people, I assume will take a lot more precautions.
By the way, an analogy is, two powerful cars are going down a residential street. One is speeding at 30 mph while the second is speeding at 40 mph. Is the second car more dangerous than the first? Not necessarily. Not if the first car has a stuck accelerator, with a panicked driver, but the second does not. Unless the first driver gets his wits and turns off the key, the first car will soon be going 40 mph, 50 mph, 60 mph, 70 mph. When will the collision take place? At 50 mph? At 95 mph? We can’t assume things are not too bad just because the number dying each day is half that of April. I think the situation is a lot more serious than that. The vaccine is not coming fast enough. Only we can save ourselves.
"Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"
Trump, October 24, 2020 I guess he may have been speaking to those who were about to die.
P. S.: After months of setting a bad example of not wearing a mask, Trump has organized another mask rally in Washington D. C. today, with many participants not wearing masks. Not likely to overcome the will of the voters. Guaranteed to increase the infection rate. Great leadership.
Trump consistently resorted to the tradition mass rallies in the weeks leading up to the election, while Biden turned away from them. These mass rallies were highly questionable before November 3. Unconscionable afterwards.
