HSCA 1978 Acoustic Study by BBN Exhibit F-367
Beyond debate, somewhere in the Dallas area, one of the police motorcycles had a stuck key, so for several minutes it was broadcasting the sounds near the motorcycle, without the rider being aware of this. This was recorded on the Dictabelt. This was a common problem for the Dallas police back then, with many dozens of officers patrolling the streets, the odds were pretty good that someone would have a stuck key. While stuck, no other patrolman could talk on that Channel.
BBN was tasked trying to figure out if this motorcycle was at Dealey Plaza and recorded the gunshots. Curiously, it was believed possible that the recording did contain a record of the shots, even thought the “shots” did not sound like shots, or were even remotely similar to the sound of shots. More like static.
Bolt, Beranek and Newman (BBN) found two cluster of N-waves. Separated by about a minute. They focused on the first cluster.
The BBN report boils down to one table, shown below:
Test | Beginning Time of | Zap. | Zap. | Microphone Array | Rifle | Target | Correlation | Strong | Fluke |
ID | First impulse on | Frame | Frame | and | Location | Location | Coefficient** |
| Tape Segments (sec) | BBN | Thomas | (Channel Numbers) |
|
|
|
A | 136.20 | | | No Correlations Higher Than | | | 0.5 |
|
|
|
B | 137.70 | 168 | 176 | 2 ( 5 ) | TSBD* | 1 | 0.8 | Strong |
C | 137.70 | 168 | 176 | 2 ( 5 ) | TSBD* | 3 | 0.7 | | Fluke |
D | 137.70 | 168 | 176 | 2 ( 6 ) | TSBD | 3 | 0.8 | Strong | Fluke |
E | 137.70 | 168 | 176 | 2 ( 6 ) | KNOLL | 4 | 0.7 | | Fluke |
|
|
|
G | 139.27 | 196 | 205 | 2 ( 6 ) | TSBD* | 3 | 0.8 | Strong |
H | 139.27 | 196 | 205 | 2 ( 6 ) | TSBD | 3 | 0.6 |
I | 139.27 | 196 | 205 | 2 ( 10 ) | TSBD | 3 | 0.6 | | Fluke |
J | 139.27 | 196 | 205 | 3 ( 5 ) | KNOLL | 3 | 0.6 | | Fluke |
|
|
|
K | 140.32 | 216 | 224 | 2 ( 11 ) | TSBD* | 3 | 0.6 |
|
|
|
L | 145.15 | 304 | 313 | 3 ( 4 ) | KNOLL | 3 | 0.8 | Strong |
M | 145.15 | 304 | 313 | 3 ( 7 ) | TSBD* | 2 | 0.7 | | Fluke |
N | 145.15 | 304 | 313 | 3 ( 8 ) | TSBD | 3 | 0.7 | | Fluke |
|
|
|
O | 145.61 | 313 | 321 | 3 ( 5 ) | TSBD | 3 | 0.8 | Strong | Fluke |
P | 145.61 | 313 | 321 | 3 ( 6 ) | TSBD | 4 | 0.8 | Strong |
Q | 145.61 | 313 | 321 | 3 ( 8 ) | TSBD* | 2 | 0.7 | Fluke |
|
|
|
R | 146.30 | | | No Correlations Higher Than | | | 0.5 |
* Indicates Muzzle Withdrawn 2 ft from Plane of Window
** Correlation coefficient = number of experienced Matches with Impulses divided by the square root of the number of echoes X Number of impulses is Less than or equal to 1.0
I have modified this table a bit:
• I added a “Test ID” column, so each test firing which gave a match can be identified as “A” through “R”.
• I have added a “Zap. Frame BBN” column, to show the times the shots occurred, as estimated by BBN.
• I have added a “Zap. Frame Thomas” column, to show the times the shots occurred, as estimated by Dr. Thomas.
The BBN and the Thomas Zapruder Frames are different, because BBN considered the last shot to be at z313, whereas Dr. Thomas considered the last shot to be at z321. In the rest of my post, when I refer to a shot at a Zapruder frame, like z224, I will be using Dr. Thomas’s frame number, not the BBN frame number.
The frame numbers I calculated myself, (reference frame + delta time * 18.3, rounded down) so they may vary slightly from other sources.
• I have added a “Strong” column, to indicate which tests had a “Strong” correlation.
• I have added a “Fluke” column, to indicate which tests had a correlation that was a “Fluke”
• And I swapped Tests J and K so that all the results can be grouped with the other results of the same “shot”.
The Acoustic tests that BBN took a day to run back in 1978, consisted of placing 36 microphones along Houston Street and Elm Street, along sections they guessed the motorcycle with the stuck key may have passed through during the shooting. There were 78 test shots fired, which would give, according to my calculations, 78 * 36 or 2,808 test runs. Each test gunshot produced 36 test results, 36 separate recordings of each shot. They do this because the shape of the “N-wave”, if formed by a gunshot, is affected by:
• The location of the microphone
• The location of the rifle
• The location of the target.
These gives a unique “fingerprint” for each “N-wave”.
BBN did not conclude that there were gunshots recorded on the Dictabelt recording because “sound impulses” or “N-waves” were found on it. These “N-waves” are found throughout the recording. And there are at least two cluster of “N-waves”, which are separated from each other by a minute. And a few other “N-waves” to be found here or there in the 5-minute recording. Since all the shots occurred within a 10 second period, it is impossible for all these “N-waves” to have been gunshots. So, it is clear that “N-waves” can be created by some other means then gunshots. Perhaps all of them were created by some other means.
BBN focused on the first cluster of 7 “N-waves”. They compared each of the 7 “N-waves” with the over 2,600 test runs. After comparing each of the 7 “N-waves” with each of the 36 recordings for each test shot, they found, among these 2,600 recordings, 18 near matches.
None of the matches were very good. The best was 0.8, which Wikipedia lists as a marginal result if good quality instruments are used. But, of course, I don’t imagine the Dictabelt would be considered a good quality instrument. But for whatever reason, no excellent matches were found.
It is evident that BBN considered anything less than a correlation coefficient of less than 0.8 to be irrelevant. Six of the matches had a correlation coefficient of 0.8. At least two of these must be flukes. Why is this true?
For the “z176” shot, we have two test results, Test B and D, both of 0.8. Both recorded near microphone 2 (5). But one shot was aimed at “Target 1” and another at “Target 3”. Both can’t be right. If in real life, a shot was fired at “Target 1”, Test B is a true match. But Test D was a fluke. There is the same problem with Test O and P with the z321 shot. Both were fired at two different targets. Only one can be a true match, the other must be a fluke.
So, of our 6 “matches”, at least two are flukes. Perhaps all 6 are flukes. With each of the 7 “N-waves” being compared to over 2,600 test results, it would not be surprising to get some correlations.
If Test L for the shot at z304 is considered a true match, as the BBN firm did, then Tests M and N are flukes, because it would be just a fluke that shots fired from the TSBD would have the same “fingerprint” of a shot fired from the Grassy Knoll.
Basically, I label any shot as a fluke, if a correlation was found for it, but a stronger correlation was found for a different test, and the BBN firm considered that test to have been the true match.
Basically, with each of the N-waves getting over 2,600 chances for a lucky match, 18 matches were found among the over 18,000 (2,600 times 7) possibilities. None of the matches were super strong. Many of them contradicted each other.
Now, let’s look at some other possible patterns. What was the progression of the “targets” during the shooting, to see if these correlations are valid? Only a test result with a “Strong” 0.8 coefficient will be considered. They were:
Shot z176 Target 1 or 3
Shot z205 Target 3
Shot z224 Target 3
Shot z313 Target 3
Shot z321 Target 3 or 4
This is not a good result. Most of the shots seemed to been fired at Target 3. Perhaps all were fired at Target 3. There should have been a progression of targets as time went on. Early shots at Target 1, then Target 2, then Target 3 and finally ending at Target 4.
If one cherry picks the targets, one could say the sequence was:
Shot z176 Target 1
Shot z205 Target 3
Shot z224 Target 3
Shot z313 Target 3
Shot z321 Target 4
Resulting in something like a progression. But there are still too many shots at Target 3, from z2205 through z313, over a period of 5.9 seconds. Surely the shooters were not all shooting at the same spot and ignoring where the limousine was at the moment.
But, let’s look at another pattern, the location of the microphone.
Shot z176 Microphone 2(5) or 2(6)
Shot z205 Microphone 2(6)
Shot z224 Microphone 2(11)
Shot z313 Microphone 3(4)
Shot z321 Microphone 3(5) or 3(6)
This is much, much better. A miserable progression for the location of the targets, but a much better progression for the location of the microphones.
What are the odds of this happening by luck? It is 5 Factorial, 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 or one in 120. With this result alone, one would think that BBN wouldn’t have said they had a 50-50 chance of a correlation due to luck (there initial assessment) or a 95% chance it was a true result. One would have thought they would say there were 99% certain that these were true results. Why didn’t they?
Let’s say that a man claims he can read minds, not all the time, but some of the time. In a controlled experiment (so no one is defrauded) he borrows a person’s Debit card, makes one attempt to read their minds, and then enters a PIN number. With 100 people he had 6 successes. But the odds of success in any one try is one in ten thousand. Surely, he must be psychic to have success six times in only one hundred attempts.
But not so fast. What if, all of his successful guesses were “1234”. This would not be evidence of psychic powers, but that some people make foolish choices about what their PIN numbers should be so they can remember them.
The test pattern for the location of the microphones could also be a linear result. For the tests in 1978, maybe the critical factor was the location of the microphone. For a shot from the TSBD, the “N-wave” may be largely determine by the location of the microphone. From when the first shock wave reached the microphone and when an echo of the non-supersonic muzzle blast from one of the buildings along Houston Street first reached it. In general, the further down Elm Street, the further the delay would be between when the shock wave first arrived and the slower echo arrived. This could result in a linear relationship of the test shots. A result of “12345” for the ever-increasing gap between the two waves.
And, if the 1963 Dictabelt’s N-waves were made in the same manner, and recorded within Dealey Plaza, it too would have the same linear relationship, showing the same “12345” pattern that we see in the 1978 tests. And be an indication that the Dictabelt does indeed record shots.
But if the 1963 Dictabelt recording was produced by a motorcycle at the Trademart Center, we might see the same “12345” pattern. Maybe these N-waves were made by someone somewhere in Dallas trying to transmit a message. They held down transmit key and this produced the “Static” heard on the recordings. Maybe the longer the transmit button is held down, the more it effects the N-waves that are produced. Resulting in the same “12345” pattern.
This correlation would be a lot more compelling, if we had Officer McLain on film, showing him riding up Elm Street, reversing direction, then reversing again. So, the expected pattern was not “12345”, but “13425”. And if the pattern on the Dictabelt was also “13425”, that would be quite interesting. Why would a recording made by a motorcycle at the Trademart center also produce a “13425” pattern? But finding both a “12345” pattern on the Dictabelt recording, and expecting that there was a “12345” pattern with the location of Officer McLain, is not nearly as compelling a coincidence. Not to me. And evidentially not to the experts at BBN.
A separate factor is, I’m certain these comparisons were done by computer back in 1979. Computers were a lot slower back then. Maybe they only ran comparisons for a certain N-wave over a certain range of data, perhaps figuring if a true match was found for the N-wave at 139.27 (z205) it has to be in the first third of the data. Any match found in the last third, would have to be a fluke. So, there would be no need to search for a match in the z280-z350 section. I don’t know if something like this was done, to save computer time, but it is a possibility. If so, that would also greatly affect the odds of only finding matches that fit the “12345” pattern.
Always be suspicious of a correlation between two sets, if both sets are ordered “12345”. It might not be as big a coincidence as one thinks. All that glitters is not gold.
All in all, I can see why BBN did not use this as a basis for their probability estimate. And since the correlation, even with up to 18,000 total comparisons did not result in any real strong correlations, I think they were right to initially say, the odds of this happening by luck are 50-50. Later, they were talked into making the odds of a lucky match at only 5 per cent. But their initial assessment was 50-50.
And finally, there is one more coincidence. The gap in time between the z224 “shot” and the z313 “shot” on the Dictabelt recording of 4.8 seconds. And a gap in time between the z224 shot and the z313 shot on the Zapruder film, which is also 4.8 seconds. That’s an amazing coincidence, right. There would be only a one in a hundred chance of there being a gap of 4.8 seconds between the “z224” N-wave and the “z313” N-wave, right? Yes. But remember, there weren’t just two N-waves. There were 7 N-waves in that cluster covering those 7.9 seconds. How many unique pairs are there between these 7 N-waves? The answer is 7 * 6 / 2 which is 21. These N-wave pairs are: AB, AC, AD, AE, AF, AG, BC, BD, BE, BF, BG, CD, CE, CF, CG, DE, DF, DG, EF, EG, and FG. So. the odds of a 4.8 second match between any of these two pairs is more like 1 in 5, not 1 in 100.
Also, there was a different cluster of N-waves a minute later that could have been tested but was not. It is possible, for all we know, that BBN focused on the first cluster because they knew it had a pair of N-waves 4.8 seconds apart and that the second cluster did not. And that was why they focused on that first cluster. So, the odds might even be greater than 1 in 5.
Note: On September 25, 2020, a minor correction was made to my table for BBN Exhibit F-367