The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

Hmmm...
If JFK isn't clear of the foliage until z207 and the graphic Jerry posted above has JFK still in the foliage at z186 this surely means a shot at z190 would have been through the foliage.
Am I missing something?

The FBI conclusion that JFK was not clear of the foliage (that is, the foliage in late May 1964) until z207 is based on their re-enactment using the Secret Service car (the "Queen Mary") from which this photo is made:

Even based on that photo from the FBI re-enactment, we can see everything back to the rear of the car which was about 7 feet behind JFK.  So JFK would have been visible 7 feet earlier.  At a foot a frame, that brings it down to z200 even in the re-enactment.

But it is not really an accurate re-enactment.  The foliage Oswald saw was similar to that depicted in the December 1963 Secret Service film which is somewhat less full than in May 64.  The president just had to move past the centre of the outer branch to be quite visible:


Also, because they used the wrong car, you can see that JFK does not appear in quite the same position from Zapruder's position in the reenactment:


So, in my view JFK was in Oswald's sights several frames before z200.  I may be over-stating it a bit at z190 but I think it is safe to say JFK was clear to Oswald by z195.  But more significant perhaps is the fact that the tree branches never completely obscured Oswald's view so Oswald could have sighted on the edge of the leaves, tracked the car aiming at a point about 2 feet in from the right side of the car and fired as soon as JFK was just about to come into the sights or cross-hairs (depending on which he was using).

[Andrew Mason]

A direct comparison between Z225(a fraction of a second after the SBF) and the SS recreation shows that the Connally stand-in was too high and too close to the side of the Limo, now when we align the corrected position with the SS recreation we can see that Connally indeed was in the location that fully supports the SBF.

Thanks for posting the above composite gif which shows that the relative positions of JFK and JBC in the re-enactment are very accurate except for their relative height.

We can see through the crosshairs of the re-enactment view from the SN that the path through JFK goes to the left of Governor Connally's midline which is no where near his right armpit, even if you lowered the jump seat.  How do you explain that this is consistent with the single bullet "fact"?

[John Mytton]

Thanks for posting the above composite gif which shows that the relative positions of JFK and JBC in the re-enactment are very accurate except for their relative height.

We can see through the crosshairs of the re-enactment view from the SN that the path through JFK goes to the left of Governor Connally's midline which is no where near his right armpit, even if you lowered the jump seat.  How do you explain that this is consistent with the single bullet "fact"?

It's simply a matter of perspective, the Limo's were different, look at the following GIF and how far forward the Kellerman stand-in is as compared to the actual Kellerman and it follows that the Connally stand-in was also forward(see comparison photo's below) from where Connally actually was, which by definition means that Connally in this comparison GIF was directly behind and therefore must have been sitting further inboard.



The two Limo's from side on show where Kennedy, Connally and Kellerman were positioned relative to their respective stand-in's.



Btw do you have any reasonable explanation of why Connally's jacket suddenly billows a fraction of a second before both Kennedy and Connally simultaneously violently react?





JohnM

[John Tonkovich]

It's simply a matter of perspective, the Limo's were different, look at the following GIF and how far forward the Kellerman stand-in is as compared to the actual Kellerman and it follows that the Connally stand-in was also forward(see comparison photo's below) from where Connally actually was, which by definition means that Connally in this comparison GIF was directly behind and therefore must have been sitting further inboard.



The two Limo's from side on show where Kennedy, Connally and Kellerman were positioned relative to their respective stand-in's.



Btw do you have any reasonable explanation of why Connally's jacket suddenly billows a fraction of a second before both Kennedy and Connally simultaneously violently react?





JohnM

It was a windy fall day.

[John Mytton]

It was a windy fall day.

Maybe on this windy fall day, if you could supply some examples of Connally's jacket billowing at any other point while he was in the Limo, then we might be able to continue this conversation but otherwise your meteorological report is duly noted.

JohnM

[Bill Chapman]

Seems no one was affected by any gusts at this point
Connally's lapel flaps out & forward and immediately comes to rest as it would with the missile passing through

[Dan O'meara]

The FBI conclusion that JFK was not clear of the foliage (that is, the foliage in late May 1964) until z207 is based on their re-enactment using the Secret Service car (the "Queen Mary") from which this photo is made:

Even based on that photo from the FBI re-enactment, we can see everything back to the rear of the car which was about 7 feet behind JFK.  So JFK would have been visible 7 feet earlier.  At a foot a frame, that brings it down to z200 even in the re-enactment.

But it is not really an accurate re-enactment.  The foliage Oswald saw was similar to that depicted in the December 1963 Secret Service film which is somewhat less full than in May 64.  The president just had to move past the centre of the outer branch to be quite visible:


Also, because they used the wrong car, you can see that JFK does not appear in quite the same position from Zapruder's position in the reenactment:


So, in my view JFK was in Oswald's sights several frames before z200.  I may be over-stating it a bit at z190 but I think it is safe to say JFK was clear to Oswald by z195.  But more significant perhaps is the fact that the tree branches never completely obscured Oswald's view so Oswald could have sighted on the edge of the leaves, tracked the car aiming at a point about 2 feet in from the right side of the car and fired as soon as JFK was just about to come into the sights or cross-hairs (depending on which he was using).

It is clear from the evidence available that JFK was behind the foliage Z190-z200 and I think we can dispense with the notion the assassin would be firing through the oak tree. Obviously your only recourse is to question the validity of the evidence as it blows your notion of a shot this early out of the water. Interestingly it also refutes the memory of Phil Willis that he was startled by a shot this early.
At best you would have us believe the very instant JFK emerged from behind the last leaf of foliage the shot was taken. This makes no sense. The assassin may have tracked the limo through the foliage but the shot would have been taken once the limo was in the clear, say z223 

[Dan O'meara]

The SS simulated the Limo position at a number of Zapruder frames and compared these locations to what Oswald would see through his scope from his Sniper's nest, but unfortunately the Limo the SS used was not the same model so the position of Connally as compared to Kennedy could not be accurately recreated and has led many people to say that the positions of the two men does not support the Single Bullet Fact.





A direct comparison between Z225(a fraction of a second after the SBF) and the SS recreation shows that the Connally stand-in was too high and too close to the side of the Limo, now when we align the corrected position with the SS recreation we can see that Connally indeed was in the location that fully supports the SBF.



Connally's jacket billows as the bullet passes through.



Both men react simultaneously.



JohnM

Hi John,

I make the case for both men being shot through at the same time earlier in the thread using some of the graphics you posted. Your main graphic clearly demonstrates the height issue while Jerry clears up the issue of the relative lateral positions of JFK and JBC.
When watching the z-film it could hardly be more obvious that both men are shot through at the same time, it is has always baffled me how some researchers can deny it. It's like denying JFK's back/left motion. Elsewhere I've talked about the phenomena of 'unseeing' and I think that there is no greater example of it than this. Is it because the story has emerged that the WC needed to invent the SBT in order to account for all the injuries caused by three shots, therefore, no matter what is shown in the Z-film it can't support the WC's findings. I don't know.
What I would like to know, John, is do you view the shot that passes through both men as the first shot or do you believe there was an earlier missed shot?