The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

I was just pointing out that others have opined that JFK appeared to be struck before z223.

Of course there are different models attempting to explain when the first shot occurred, that is what this thread is about. Some have it taking place before Zapruder even starts filming the Presidential limo itself. We have seen the differences between yourself, myself, Jerry and Charles, all presenting very different models using the same evidence.
Unlike others, I have put much emphasis on the Z-film with all other evidence being secondary and used to support what we see there. The arguments I have put forward to support my own model - a first shot at z223 - have stood up to any challenge presented here whilst other models have been shown to be completely at odds with what we see in the Z-film if we accept basic evidence, such as the majority of ear-witnesses hearing three audible shots.

You agree that JFK was struck on the first shot.

Yes I do

Phil Willis said his z202 photo was taken just after the first shot.  So I am not alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223.

You rely on single witness statements too much. Willis is contradicted by other witness statements so no absolute authority can be given to it. He could easily be mistaken and, as I've demonstrated in this thread, the Z-film appears to show he is indeed mistaken
No-one is saying you're alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223. What we have seen, though, is the disintegration of your own model - nothing in the Z-film supports it in any substantial way, having the assassin firing through dense foliage, the impossible ballistics etc.

You agree with the 1..........2......3 shot pattern.

Yes, I do.

If the head shot was the last shot, as many witnesses said and which makes sense, then the first shot had to be earlier than z223.

The failures of your model argue against the headshot being the final shot (a shot after the headshot is something many witnesses testify to). The integrity of the shot pattern can be kept with a shot after the headshot without the pitfalls your own model has run into.

 
I can't tell what he meant by "practically".  Obviously, he did not mean there was no discernible period of time between them. Perhaps he meant that there was no period of silence between them.  Mary Woodward observed that the sound of the second shot had not died out before the third was heard:

• "The second two shots were immediate --- it was almost as if one were an echo of the other -- they came so quickly. The sound of one did not cease until the second shot.” … “and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one”.

When he is saying there is practically no time element between the two shots he is saying the shots were almost simultaneous. Some thing others seem to testify to. In your model there is a gap of over two seconds between the 'hair ruffle and the headshot'. In no way can a gap of over two seconds be described as 'practically no time element' or 'almost simultaneous'.

[/list]So how do you account for the fact that 1) he reported seeing JFK's hair fly up at the moment he heard the second shot as if it just missed his head on the right side and 2) JFK's hair actually flies up from z273 to z276 just as he said he observed?  How is that even possible unless he actually saw what he said he saw?  Jerry was not there.  Hickey was. He was standing up in the QM. How can you be so sure he could not see JFK?  Are you suggesting he did not see the head shot?

Hickey is describing the headshot. His hair does not 'fly up' from z272 to z276. It ruffles in the wind. Exactly the same thing happens just before the headshot (@ z305). It is something that surely happened dozens of times during the parade.
Jerry does not need to be there, that is the point of the modelling he does. He has demonstrated that Hickey was not in a position to see the 'hair ruffle' but was in the position to see the hair blown off as JKF's head explodes.

It's time to reconsider your model.
You seem like a reasonable person and must surely see the insurmountable problems that have arisen for your model.

[Andrew Mason]

Of course there are different models attempting to explain when the first shot occurred, that is what this thread is about. Some have it taking place before Zapruder even starts filming the Presidential limo itself. We have seen the differences between yourself, myself, Jerry and Charles, all presenting very different models using the same evidence.
Unlike others, I have put much emphasis on the Z-film with all other evidence being secondary and used to support what we see there.

The zfilm alone does not tell us where JFK or JBC is hit and does not tell us when the first two shots occurred.  So the events that it shows have to be interpreted with the rest of the evidence. For example, when JFK and Jackie turn sharp right at about z160-175 from looking left and wave to bystanders, it appeared to Mary Woodward that this was done in response to them shouting and waving to get the President's attention and that the first shot was after this.  Also, no one said that JFK smiled and waved after the first shot.  Yet many ignore that evidence and conclude that this was a turn in response to hearing a gunshot.  All those who support second shot SBT do that.  They are just fooling themselves.

You rely on single witness statements too much. Willis is contradicted by other witness statements so no absolute authority can be given to it. He could easily be mistaken and, as I've demonstrated in this thread, the Z-film appears to show he is indeed mistaken.

I am not relying only on Phil Willis.  His evidence is supported by several others including:

• His daughter, Linda, said that the first shot occurred when the President’s limousine was in line with her and the Stemmons sign, which puts it well before z223 and in that z195-205 area.
• His other daughter, Rosemary, turns her head sharply rearward toward the TSBD between z204 and z207.
• Hugh Betzner who said that he had started to wind his camera after taking his z186 photo when the first shot occurred.
• T.E. Moore (24 H 534) who gave a statement saying "By the time President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  The President was opposite the Thornton sign at z200 - well before z223.
• Occupants of the VP car who said that they had just turned the corner and were going down Elm St. when the first shot occurred.  It is almost finished the turn when last seen in the zfilm at z180.
• Occupants of the VP follow-up car who said that they were still turning - were along side the TSBD when the first shot occurred.  It is in the middle of its turn at z191 when last seen and is just a few frames away from the position they described.

No-one is saying you're alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223. What we have seen, though, is the disintegration of your own model - nothing in the Z-film supports it in any substantial way, having the assassin firing through dense foliage, the impossible ballistics etc.

As I have pointed out, JFK is clear of the foliage when he was opposite the Thornton Freeway sign as seen in the Secret Service film:
And I have shown that he was opposite the Thornton sign at z200:

The failures of your model argue against the headshot being the final shot (a shot after the headshot is something many witnesses testify to). The integrity of the shot pattern can be kept with a shot after the headshot without the pitfalls your own model has run into.

There are are many more witnesses who said that the head shot was the last shot: all the Secret Service agents, the Connallys, Dave Powers and Altgens. A third shot after the head shot means the shooter continued firing after such an obvious hit to the head. 

When he is saying there is practically no time element between the two shots he is saying the shots were almost simultaneous. Some thing others seem to testify to. In your model there is a gap of over two seconds between the 'hair ruffle and the headshot'. In no way can a gap of over two seconds be described as 'practically no time element' or 'almost simultaneous'.

It is if he meant that they overlapped: as Mary Woodward said, the sound of the second had not died out before the third shot was heard.

Hickey is describing the headshot. His hair does not 'fly up' from z272 to z276. It ruffles in the wind. Exactly the same thing happens just before the headshot (@ z305). It is something that surely happened dozens of times during the parade.
Jerry does not need to be there, that is the point of the modelling he does. He has demonstrated that Hickey was not in a position to see the 'hair ruffle' but was in the position to see the hair blown off as JKF's head explodes.

There is no hair flying up at z305.  You are seeing movement of the camera. The hair is identical in z304 and z306. The camera moves during the exposure of z305 as you can see in the double line on the car (look at the roof support bar).

[Steve M. Galbraith]

This is a very good thread. Some interesting views/thoughts. Thanks to Dan for starting it.

And as always, thanks to Duncan for putting up with us group of three year olds.....

[Andrew Mason]

The only place I can find where it might be thought by Woodward that the Kennedys were both "full-faced" towards her group is in the Tina Towner film.

That fits what we see from z154 when JFK begins to turn right
The President turns rightward in the Z150s with Mrs. Kennedy starting to turn in the Z160s. They don't turn rightward nowhere else during the approach to the Stemmons Frwy sign.


That would be more consistent with what Woodward described. As well, Woodward said she saw the Kennedys react to hearing the first shot:

Why not use Mary Woodward's DMN article that she wrote within a couple of hours of the events:

• "The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face.But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed. Jackie was wearing a beautiful pink suit with beret to match. Two of us, who had seen the President last during the final weeks of the 1960 campaign remarked how relaxed and robust he looked.
  
  As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd.
  
  After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
  

We can see beginning that prior to z170 the President is facing forward and a bit to the right but not sharp right. Jackie is looking left.  At this point the President is approaching Mary Woodward and her friends (the President is opposite them at z190-195).  We can see that they are clapping.  At z170-180 his head turns fully right and looks at them and he gives a full wave of his right hand and smiles.  Jackie's head turns from looking left to looking sharp right, as well from z173 to z192, which is one second, .  JFK then turns forward by z206. 

This is exactly what Mary Woodward described as occurring just before the first shot. She said that she thought that they were the last people the President acknowledged before that first "horrible, ear-shattering noise".

[Dan O'meara]

Why not use Mary Woodward's DMN article that she wrote within a couple of hours of the events:

• "The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face.But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed. Jackie was wearing a beautiful pink suit with beret to match. Two of us, who had seen the President last during the final weeks of the 1960 campaign remarked how relaxed and robust he looked.
  
  As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd.
  
  After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
  

We can see beginning that prior to z170 the President is facing forward and a bit to the right but not sharp right. Jackie is looking left.  At this point the President is approaching Mary Woodward and her friends (the President is opposite them at z190-195).  We can see that they are clapping.  At z170-180 his head turns fully right and looks at them and he gives a full wave of his right hand and smiles.  Jackie's head turns from looking left to looking sharp right, as well from z173 to z192, which is one second, .  JFK then turns forward by z206. 

This is exactly what Mary Woodward described as occurring just before the first shot. She said that she thought that they were the last people the President acknowledged before that first "horrible, ear-shattering noise".

You're making an argument for a first shot @z223 and against a first shot in the z190's
JFK turns forward (@ z206) "and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
A shot at z223 would be less than a second after JFK faced forward.
In her account, Woodward makes it clear both JFK and Jackie "turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us".
In the Towner film, at no point is Jackie looking to her right, she is clearly looking to her left.
From z133 Jackie is looking to her left.
She starts to turn @ z170 but it's not until about z190 that both she and JFK are looking to their right. JFK is still waving and smiling.
As you say, this is the moment described by Woodward.
She describes JFK turning to face ahead (this happens @ z206) immediately after which was the first shot (I would argue at z223 which is the only model that makes sense of Woodward's observations)
The Towner film proves Jackie did not turn to her right as the limo turned the corner at Houston and Elm.

[Andrew Mason]

You're making an argument for a first shot @z223 and against a first shot in the z190's
JFK turns forward (@ z206) "and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
A shot at z223 would be less than a second after JFK faced forward.
In her account, Woodward makes it clear both JFK and Jackie "turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us".
In the Towner film, at no point is Jackie looking to her right, she is clearly looking to her left.
From z133 Jackie is looking to her left.
She starts to turn @ z170 but it's not until about z190 that both she and JFK are looking to their right. JFK is still waving and smiling.
As you say, this is the moment described by Woodward.
She describes JFK turning to face ahead (this happens @ z206) immediately after which was the first shot (I would argue at z223 which is the only model that makes sense of Woodward's observations)
The Towner film proves Jackie did not turn to her right as the limo turned the corner at Houston and Elm.

Well, it is evidence that indicates that the first shot was around z206 or later. It is difficult to pinpoint when he started to turn forward and all Mary Woodward says is that the first shot did not occur before he made that turn.  He is turned sharp right and waving in z193 which is the clearest frame between z190 and z207.  At z193 he was opposite Mary Woodward so if he turned forward after he passed her, as her account indicates, he could have begun his turn earlier than z206.  On the other hand, we can see in Willis' photo taken at z202 that JFK appears to still have his head is still turned somewhat right.  But he is not looking back toward Mary Woodward who was then about 10 feet behind him.

Mary Woodward is one witness.  Of course, we have to look at all the evidence.  And the evidence of Linda Willis, who was a couple of feet to her father's right and on the step behind him, said that the President was between her and the Stemmons sign when the first shot occurred.  From Phil Willis' view at z202, he was just past the Stemmons sign. So from Linda Willis' point of view, at z202 the president would be just about past the Stemmons sign. We also have Rosemary's sharp right turn back toward the TSBD at z204-207 and if that was in response to a shot, it must have come a few frames earlier.

I would agree that the most difficult to determine bracket for the first shot is the "not after" bracket.  There is abundant evidence that the "not before" bracket is at least z186. 

[Dan O'meara]

Well, it is evidence that indicates that the first shot was around z206 or later. It is difficult to pinpoint when he started to turn forward and all Mary Woodward says is that the first shot did not occur before he made that turn.  He is turned sharp right and waving in z193 which is the clearest frame between z190 and z207.  At z193 he was opposite Mary Woodward so if he turned forward after he passed her, as her account indicates, he could have begun his turn earlier than z206.  On the other hand, we can see in Willis' photo taken at z202 that JFK appears to still have his head is still turned somewhat right.  But he is not looking back toward Mary Woodward who was then about 10 feet behind him.

Mary Woodward is one witness.  Of course, we have to look at all the evidence.  And the evidence of Linda Willis, who was a couple of feet to her father's right and on the step behind him, said that the President was between her and the Stemmons sign when the first shot occurred.  From Phil Willis' view at z202, he was just past the Stemmons sign. So from Linda Willis' point of view, at z202 the president would be just about past the Stemmons sign. We also have Rosemary's sharp right turn back toward the TSBD at z204-207 and if that was in response to a shot, it must have come a few frames earlier.

I would agree that the most difficult to determine bracket for the first shot is the "not after" bracket.  There is abundant evidence that the "not before" bracket is at least z186.

Woodward is not the first witness you have presented that has refuted your own model. Her observations fit very well with my own model.
As for the Willis's, in particular Rosemary's turn in response to the sound of the first shot. This has been dealt with numerous times and it is somewhat disheartening to have to refute the same point again and again and again.
One last time -
In the Z-film we can see Rosemary Willis' response to what is possibly a shot somewhere in the z190's
A few feet away from her we can also see a vehicle full of specially trained Secret Service Agents
Not one of these Agents makes any kind of meaningful response for the entire time they are in view (up to z207)
You are (again) asking us to believe that this little girl is responding to a shot but that the car full of SS Agents are completely oblivious to it.
Even though many of these agents describe reacting immediately to the first 'explosive noise'
This is the reaction we see in Altgens 6

Rosemary Willis is not reacting to the sound of the first shot.
The Z-film proves this beyond reasonable doubt.
Surely this is the end of this particular matter

[Andrew Mason]

Woodward is not the first witness you have presented that has refuted your own model. Her observations fit very well with my own model.
As for the Willis's, in particular Rosemary's turn in response to the sound of the first shot. This has been dealt with numerous times and it is somewhat disheartening to have to refute the same point again and again and again.
One last time -
In the Z-film we can see Rosemary Willis' response to what is possibly a shot somewhere in the z190's
A few feet away from her we can also see a vehicle full of specially trained Secret Service Agents
Not one of these Agents makes any kind of meaningful response for the entire time they are in view (up to z207)
You are (again) asking us to believe that this little girl is responding to a shot but that the car full of SS Agents are completely oblivious to it.
Even though many of these agents describe reacting immediately to the first 'explosive noise'
This is the reaction we see in Altgens 6

Rosemary Willis is not reacting to the sound of the first shot.
The Z-film proves this beyond reasonable doubt.
Surely this is the end of this particular matter

Rosemary Willis turns her head suddenly at 204-207:

Please explain how you know that she does not do this in response to the first shot. 

The problem is not that the Secret Service agents did not respond.  The problem is that we can't see them respond.  We can only see Landis and Hill after z212 and frames 208-211 are missing.

Landis appears to be looking down at the side of the president's limo and Hill was fixated on JFK. That is how they said they reacted.

Jack Ready lifts his right hand off the front hand-hold and starts to turn his body to the right at z199.  By z207 his right arm is down by his side. He said he turned around to his right in response to the first shot.