The First Shot

[Walt Cakebread]

No Walt, this is not the perfect opportunity for your incoherent ramblings.
Over 160 witnesses reported THREE CLEARLY AUDIBLE SHOTS (more than 75% of all witnesses who reported on the shots)
I am trying to establish when the first of these THREE CLEARLY AUDIBLE SHOTS occurred.
Obviously, this is not a topic for flakes who have gunmen all over the place firing a range of weaponry, it's for those who accept credible evidence.
It's important to establish when the first of these THREE CLEARLY AUDIBLE SHOTS occurred as there is no consensus on such a fundamental issue.
If you have a comment to make about the evidence I've presented lets hear it.

Obviously, this is not a topic for flakes who have gunmen all over the place firing a range of weaponry, it's for those who accept credible evidence.

I could not be in more agreement...  And the plat of Z223 presents, not merely credible evidence , but  irrefutable evidence that there was a tree between the sixth floor window and President Kennedy at the time he was stuck in THE THROAT....(Z 223)

[Dan O'meara]

Obviously, this is not a topic for flakes who have gunmen all over the place firing a range of weaponry, it's for those who accept credible evidence.

I could not be in more agreement...  And the plat of Z223 presents, not merely credible evidence , but  irrefutable evidence that there was a tree between the sixth floor window and President Kennedy at the time he was stuck in THE THROAT....(Z 223)

Below is the graphic demonstrating JFK was clear of the oak tree by z225 (110 milliseconds after z223)



Provide evidence that a sniper's view from the south-east corner of the 6th floor of the TSBD was blocked by the oak tree @223.
Don't just bluster your way through it, provide actual evidence to support your claim.

[Dan O'meara]

Kennedy's right hand is cupped and may be in the process of forming a fist (which it appears to be by Z226). But that would only represent the passage of one frame to get the hand cupped. You're talking about Kennedy needing 30 frames or almost two seconds just to cup his hand if he was shot in the mid-Z190s.



I don't think Moore could see to the President slumping Z228ff. His statement says he saw the President "slump" on the first shot. Kennedy leans forward in the Z170s, within a second of the Connally's rightward head-turns, which they said occurred when they heard the first shot. Moore wasn't side-to the limousine (he was almost directly behind) so his impression of Kennedy having "reached the Thornton Freeway sign" seems not based on anything comparative.

Surprised you showed up here, Jerry, but not surprised you've completely ignored the latest evidence I've provided to support a first shot at z223.
All 10 occupants of the VP car and VP follow-up car are in agreement on this single point - that both cars have completed the turn off Houston and are travelling on Elm Street.
All 10 statements corroborate each other on this point.
You're theory (which I've catered for) is a first shot around z160. Let's have a look at Mark Tyler's mapping program for around z160:



As we can see, the VP car (#7) has not fully completed it's turn onto Elm St. and the VP follow-up car (#8) is still on Houston St.
This positioning for a first shot is completely refuted by the witness statements of ALL 10 OCCUPANTS of the two vehicles.
A first shot around z160 is completely refuted by this evidence.
If you feel there is a glaring weakness with the evidence I've used or the methodology I've used I would like to discuss it.
If you don't believe there is any weakness, isn't this the kind of solid evidence that should be informing your opinion about when the first shot occurred?
Are you just going to carry on believing the same thing, even when confronted by such evidence?
Surely it's the evidence that should be informing your opinion.
Surely that is the bedrock of wanting to know what really happened that day in Dealey Plaza.

[Dan O'meara]

I think you're assuming the car occupants would be staring directly out the vehicle's front window and only be aware of what's in the immediate front of the car. Instead, I believe they were more likely to be anticipating where their car was headed or be looking towards the Presidential limousine and how the crowd was receiving the President.

The recent evidence I've presented, based on the work of Speer and Tyler, is solid. Rather than allow it to inform your opinion about when the first shot occurred you have chosen, instead, to carry on with your own, utterly refuted theory.

The problem, for you, is that this leads to creating bizarre and disingenuous points that you will then try to argue.
For instance - you have me imagining the occupants are like mannequins, staring directly ahead as they pass through the streets of Dallas, aware of nothing else except "what's in the immediate front of the car."
Are you not embarrassed to invent such a desperate point?

Even though all 10 occupants of both vehicles make it absolutely clear they have turned off Houston St. and are travelling down Elm St, you would have us believe this is because they are "anticipating where their car was headed".
Just think about how ridiculous the point is you're making.
They are still on Houston but they think they're travelling down Elm due to 'anticipation'??

Lady Bird Johnson says her car was "rounding a curve" at the moment of the first shot. By Z223 the VP car is well pass the curve.

So much for making bizarre points.
Now we move on to being disingenuous.
You are indeed correct, the VP car is well past the curve by z223, but what Lady Bird actually says is:

“we were rounding a curve, going down a hill and suddenly there was a sharp loud report..."
"...suddenly in that brilliant sunshine there was a sharp rifle shot. It came, I thought, from over my right shoulder."

She is saying they were on Elm, travelling down the incline on Elm St, when the first shot occurred.
Conversely, around z160, the VP car is about halfway round the curve and nowhere near the incline going down Elm.

Clifton C. Carter said his car was "right along side of the Texas School Book Depository" when he heard the first shot. Since his statement was made in May 1964, and he morphed events, it may have been the second shot (not the first) that he heard when his car was alongside the Depository.

    "At approximately 12:30 p.m., our car had just made the lefthand turn off
     Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School
     Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a
     firecracker. Special Agent Youngblood, who was seated on the righthand
     side of the front seat of Vice President Johnson's car immediately turned
     and pushed Vice President Johnson down and in the same motion vaulted
     over the seat and covered the Vice President with his body. At that instant
     Mrs. Johnson and Senator Yarborough, who were riding in the back seat
     along with the Vice President, bent forward. Special Agent Youngblood's
     action came immediately after the first shot and before the succeeding shots.

         I distinctly remember three shots. There was an interval of approximately
     5 to 6 seconds from the first to the last shot, and the three shots were
     evenly spaced."

I don't think Youngblood got over the front seat between shots 1 and 2. I think Carter filled in some of what he saw with regards to Youngblood from news reports that exaggerated Youngblood's reactions.

Why you think Carter is lying about when Youngblood got over the front seat (even though LBJ confirmed this) is bizarre and irrelevant. Instead you provide a quote stating the VP follow-up car "had just made the lefthand turn off
Houston onto Elm Street", clearly not the case at z160.

Agents Johns heard "two shots" -- so his "first" shot could have been the Z220s SBT shot (the 2nd of most LN scenarios). Agent Jacks' vehicle isn't absolutely "straightened up from making the left turn" at Z160, but he said he was looking "looking directly at the President's car at that time". So his line-of-sight was down Elm; at Z160, the vehicle Jacks was in was perpendicular to Houston and more on Elm than Houston.

The VP car is nowhere near being "straightened up from making the left turn" at z160.



Note, Jacks stated they had already made the turn, then straightened out.
This is clearly not the case at z160.
The rest of your post has no bearing on the Speer/Tyler evidence.

[Andrew Mason]

I have presented a multitude of arguments in this thread demonstrating the first shot occurred at z223. The radical bulging of the right side of JBC's jacket caused by the bullet exiting his chest is just one piece of evidence confirming my "belief".
The latest argument, based on the work of Pat Speer and Mark Tyler, refutes all other theories regarding when the first shot occurred, including your own (unless you've changed it again).

I prefer basing conclusions on the evidence.

This has been explained at length in this thread and has nothing to do with pre-cognition.

Yes.  The assumption is that he just happened to move his hands into that position immediately before being shot.  Big assumption.

"The evidence you have provided is equally consistent with a first shot about a second earlier."

So you're now changing your theory to a first shot around z205?

What are you basing that on?

I said that the evidence you provided (the motorcade witnesses) is consistent with a shot about a second earlier.  Other witnesses such as Phil Willis (just before z202), Mary Woodward (just after z192), Linda Willis (z195-z205), Rosemary Willis (the head turn to the TSBD at z204), Jack Ready (rearward turn begins z200), together with the fact that JFK was never completely obscured by the tree and was completely clear of the tree well before z200 indicate that that the shot occurred around z195 give or take a few frames.

I note that in your post #152 on this thread, you quoted from Pat Speer's analysis:
"...we’ve looked at the words of 293 witnesses to see if they add up to something. Of this 293, 88 failed to tell us much that would indicate when and how the shots were fired. Of the remaining 205, 102 made statements suggesting there were three shots fired, with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224 and the last 2 shots being heard in rapid succession after a short pause. Another 57 made statements suggesting that the first shot was heard between Z-190 and Z-224, but made no statements indicating the last two shots were bunched together. Another 13 heard the last two shots fired closely together, and yet another could only swear to hearing two shots, but thought there may have been a third, which was wholly consistent with the last two being fired closely together. This means that 173 of the 205 witnesses described the shots in a relatively consistent manner. Of the remaining 32, 18 heard four or more shots, and another 3 made statements indicating there was a shot after the head shot."

At that point, based on Pat Speer's analysis, you had considered that the evidence was consistent with a first shot as early as z195.  What has changed?

[Dan O'meara]

I prefer basing conclusions on the evidence.

No you don't.
You base it on sketchy, disparate witness testimony and perverse interpretations of the video evidence.
The latest evidence I've presented is based on 10 corroborating witness statements from two vehicles that place them on Elm St at the moment of the first shot and compared that with the comprehensive mapping program created by Mark Tyler to show the vehicle positions at various points.

Do you have any issue with the method I've used?

Yes.  The assumption is that he just happened to move his hands into that position immediately before being shot.  Big assumption.

Your usual misrepresentation.

I said that the evidence you provided (the motorcade witnesses) is consistent with a shot about a second earlier.  Other witnesses such as Phil Willis (just before z202), Mary Woodward (just after z192), Linda Willis (z195-z205), Rosemary Willis (the head turn to the TSBD at z204), Jack Ready (rearward turn begins z200), together with the fact that JFK was never completely obscured by the tree and was completely clear of the tree well before z200 indicate that that the shot occurred around z195 give or take a few frames.

The witness statements are consistent with z195 you say?
Well, let's take a look:



As you can clearly see, the VP follow-up car is still half way through the turn onto Elm St. and is thus refuted by the witness statements of ALL the occupants of that vehicle.
Your little theory is refuted (yet again)

I note that in your post #152 on this thread, you quoted from Pat Speer's analysis:
"...we’ve looked at the words of 293 witnesses to see if they add up to something. Of this 293, 88 failed to tell us much that would indicate when and how the shots were fired. Of the remaining 205, 102 made statements suggesting there were three shots fired, with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224 and the last 2 shots being heard in rapid succession after a short pause. Another 57 made statements suggesting that the first shot was heard between Z-190 and Z-224, but made no statements indicating the last two shots were bunched together. Another 13 heard the last two shots fired closely together, and yet another could only swear to hearing two shots, but thought there may have been a third, which was wholly consistent with the last two being fired closely together. This means that 173 of the 205 witnesses described the shots in a relatively consistent manner. Of the remaining 32, 18 heard four or more shots, and another 3 made statements indicating there was a shot after the head shot."

At that point, based on Pat Speer's analysis, you had considered that the evidence was consistent with a first shot as early as z195.  What has changed?

The post you are referring to [#151, not #152] makes no reference to a shot as early as z195. Is this one of your more outlandish tactics to steer the discussion away from the Speer/Tyler evidence being discussed, as it refutes your own theory?
I have consistently advocated a first shot at z223 on this thread, i have presented copious arguments to support this view and am glad that this latest evidence confirms my position at the expense of everyone else's theory- including your own.

The Speer/Tyler evidence is solid.

[Andrew Mason]

No you don't.
You base it on sketchy, disparate witness testimony and perverse interpretations of the video evidence.


The latest evidence I've presented is based on 10 corroborating witness statements from two vehicles that place them on Elm St at the moment of the first shot and compared that with the comprehensive mapping program created by Mark Tyler to show the vehicle positions at various points.

Do you have any issue with the method I've used?

Yes. You need to look at all the witnesses. The same witnesses that Speer analysed and concluded supported a shot in the z190 to z224 range and the additional witnesses that I referred to (such as Phil Willis, Linda Willis and Rosemary Willis' head turn, all of which put the first shot before z202; such as Ready; such as the Secret Service film showing that JFK was quite visible when he passed the lamppost just a few feet east of where Mary Woodward was standing.

The witness statements are consistent with z195 you say?
Well, let's take a look:



As you can clearly see, the VP follow-up car is still half way through the turn onto Elm St. and is thus refuted by the witness statements of ALL the occupants of that vehicle.
Your little theory is refuted (yet again)

You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car. 

Occupants of the VP follow-up car (5th in motorcade, your #8 car) described the moment of the first shot:

• Joe Rich. (driver), WC 18 H 800: "I was staying right on his bumper" (of the VP car). "we turned off Houston Street onto Elm Street"
• Clifton Carter, WC 7 H 474: "our car had just made the lefthand turn off Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building"
• SA Kivett, WC 8 H 778: "The motorcade was heading slightly downhill toward an underpass. As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 of the way to the underpass.."
• SA Johns, WC 18 H 764: "at this time were were on a slight downhill curve to the right"
• SA Taylor, (18 H 782): "our automobile had just turned a corner"

The position you have shown for the VP Security car certainly fits those descriptions at the position you have shown at z195. Most of the comments provide a "before bracket" (after their car had turned off Houston); after the motorcade was heading toward the underpass about 1/3 of the way there.  But the comment by Clifton Carter gives a precise location: they had made the turn off Houston and the car was "along side" the TSBD.  That certainly fits the position you have shown for the VP Security car at z195.

The Occupants of Mayor Cabell’s car (6th in motorcade, your #11 car for some reason) further support this position.  They recalled hearing the first shot as follows:

• Milton Wright (driver), WC18 H 802: "had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30 feet from the intersection".
• Earle Cabell, WC 7 H 479, said that he was turned around talking to Rep. Roberts and Mrs. Cabell with the TSBD situated to his back.
• Mrs. Cabell, WC 7 H 486, "we were making the turn" ... "I was directly facing [the TSBD]"

The car that you have shown is directly facing the TSBD at z195 just as Mrs. Cabell described.  She said she just looked up and saw the rifle sticking out of the 6th floor window directly in front of her.  Here is a view of that moment from the SN as shown in the 1963 Secret Service film:

The post you are referring to [#151, not #152] makes no reference to a shot as early as z195. Is this one of your more outlandish tactics to steer the discussion away from the Speer/Tyler evidence being discussed, as it refutes your own theory?

So how do you interpret: "with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224"?  Is z190 not earlier than z195? 

[BTW, I was referring to your post which is shown as #152 when I view it.  In any event, it is your post on: November 02, 2020, 12:39:46 PM]

[Dan O'meara]

Yes. You need to look at all the witnesses. The same witnesses that Speer analysed and concluded supported a shot in the z190 to z224 range and the additional witnesses that I referred to (such as Phil Willis, Linda Willis and Rosemary Willis' head turn, all of which put the first shot before z202; such as Ready; such as the Secret Service film showing that JFK was quite visible when he passed the lamppost just a few feet east of where Mary Woodward was standing.
You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car. 

Occupants of the VP follow-up car (5th in motorcade, your #8 car) described the moment of the first shot:

• Joe Rich. (driver), WC 18 H 800: "I was staying right on his bumper" (of the VP car). "we turned off Houston Street onto Elm Street"
• Clifton Carter, WC 7 H 474: "our car had just made the lefthand turn off Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building"
• SA Kivett, WC 8 H 778: "The motorcade was heading slightly downhill toward an underpass. As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 of the way to the underpass.."
• SA Johns, WC 18 H 764: "at this time were were on a slight downhill curve to the right"
• SA Taylor, (18 H 782): "our automobile had just turned a corner"

The position you have shown for the VP Security car certainly fits those descriptions at the position you have shown at z195. Most of the comments provide a "before bracket" (after their car had turned off Houston); after the motorcade was heading toward the underpass about 1/3 of the way there.  But the comment by Clifton Carter gives a precise location: they had made the turn off Houston and the car was "along side" the TSBD.  That certainly fits the position you have shown for the VP Security car at z195.

The Occupants of Mayor Cabell’s car (6th in motorcade, your #11 car for some reason) further support this position.  They recalled hearing the first shot as follows:

• Milton Wright (driver), WC18 H 802: "had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30 feet from the intersection".
• Earle Cabell, WC 7 H 479, said that he was turned around talking to Rep. Roberts and Mrs. Cabell with the TSBD situated to his back.
• Mrs. Cabell, WC 7 H 486, "we were making the turn" ... "I was directly facing [the TSBD]"

The car that you have shown is directly facing the TSBD at z195 just as Mrs. Cabell described.  She said she just looked up and saw the rifle sticking out of the 6th floor window directly in front of her.  Here is a view of that moment from the SN as shown in the 1963 Secret Service film:


So how do you interpret: "with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224"?  Is z190 not earlier than z195? 

[BTW, I was referring to your post which is shown as #152 when I view it.  In any event, it is your post on: November 02, 2020, 12:39:46 PM]

"You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car."

Am I really?

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] - “We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street"   Turn completed
Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  -  "...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm"   Turn completed
Warren Taylor [back centre] - “Our automobile had just turned a corner"   Turn completed
Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] -  "We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill"   Turn completed

4 of the 5 occupants specifically state the turn onto Elm from Houston was completed. This is not the case for z195. That is clear for all to see. However, it is the case for z223.
The other occupant, Kivett, makes it clear they were going down the incline on Elm St at the time of the first shot.

Poor Andrew, trying desperately to cling on but I'm afraid the evidence is against you.
Even Hickey's "fringe ruffle" can't save the day.

The 10 corroborating witness statements, combined with the Mark Tyler mapping program, are solid evidence.
You have nothing but your cherry-picked twisted interpretations and plain old denial.

It's time to look at the evidence with open eyes.