The First Shot

[Ray Mitcham]

Jackie also references JBC crying out "Oh No No No" as having taken place after the first shot.

Mrs Connolly's testimony to W.C.

Mrs. CONNALLY. Yes; and it seemed to me there was--he made no utterance, no cry. I saw no blood, no anything. It was just sort of nothing, the expression on his face, and he just sort of slumped down.
Then very soon there was the second shot that hit John. As the first shot was hit, and I turned to look at the same time, I recall John saying, "Oh, no, no, no." Then there was a second shot, and it hit John, and as he recoiled to the right, just crumpled like a wounded animal to the right, he said, "My God, they are going to kill us all."

[Dan O'meara]

This is also very notable from JBC's WC testimony:

Mr. SPECTER. "What is the best estimate that you have as to the time span between the sound of the first shot and the feeling of someone hitting you in the back which you just described?"

Governor CONNALLY. "A very, very brief span of time. Again my trend of thought just happened to be, I suppose along this line, I immediately thought that this--that I had been shot. I knew it when I just looked down and I was covered with blood, and the thought immediately passed through my mind that there were either two or three people involved or more in this or someone was shooting with an automatic rifle. These were just thoughts that went through my mind because of the rapidity of these two, of the first shot plus the blow that I took, and I knew I had been hit, and I immediately assumed, because of the amount of blood, and in fact, that it had obviously passed through my chest. that I had probably been fatally hit."

The span of time was so short between hearing the first shot and being hit Connally thought two or three people were shooting or there was an automatic rifle being used - that is to say, a span of time shorter than it would take to use a bolt action rifle - possibly two seconds or less.
There is no scenario in which the first two shots are so close together strongly suggesting JBC is misremembering this moment, possibly stretching time out in his memory.
The gap between the first and second shots cannot be considered as short as JBC is suggesting. This 'misremembering' is apparent a few times in the testimonies of JBC and Nellie'
JBC is adamant he said "Oh, no, no, no" after being shot, Nellie is equally adamant he says it before being shot even though she is looking at JFK at the time. Nellie states she comforts JBC ("It's all right. Be still.") after the headshot which is impossible as we see in the Z-film both Nellie and JBC immediately duck for cover after the headshot. JBC remembers her comforting him before the headshot.

There are other examples but the point is made.

[Andrew Mason]

No it wouldn't.
The bizarre thing about what you're suggesting is that in your model the first shot that Connally is supposed to be responding to is over one and a half seconds before he suddenly explodes in a 'flurry of concern'!

I think you are stretching it a bit to call a 25-28 frame - 1.5 second - delay "bizarre".  Given what he had to do to react, it might be considered rather quick.  It was certainly quicker than Kellerman's reaction which does not begin until z252.

Keep in mind, JBC's was not a reaction prompted by recognizing a physical impact. His brain first had to recognize the sound as a gunshot.  Then his brain had to process the significance of that sound ie. that an assassination of the President was unfolding.  Then his brain had to make a decision to turn around to check on JFK.  Then the brain had to instruct the muscles to co-ordinate a turn to the rear to perform the check. All of that took 25-28 frames (z195-198 to z223) or 1.37 to 1.53 seconds.

And that is assuming that his reaction began at z223.  It may not have.  If you look at JBC's shirt, the amount of white shirt visible in z222 is less than in z223. In fact, z222 and z224 look very similar (so much for the jacket bulge theory).  One possible and very reasonable explanation would be that, while he is behind the sign, JBC is already beginning to move his body.

In the Z-film JBC doesn't turn round to see JFK until after he is shot.

?? I agree that he doesn't turn around to see JFK until after JFK is shot (on the first shot).  JBC said he turned around after the first shot and before he - JBC - was hit in the back.  So, according to the evidence, that turn is before JBC was hit in the back.

I made it clear in my post that the Gif showing the extreme change in JBC's body posture (in less than a second!) is just one piece of a collection of inter-related and interlocking reactions and movements all occurring at the same time.
This is the context you are taking it out of.

The evidentiary context in which JBC turned around to see JFK was JBC reacting to the sound of the shot.  The actions that you describe are, according to the evidence, the result of JFK being hit by the first shot and JBC reacting to hearing it, not being hit in the back by it. 

Of course I can. It even appears to me that he is staring straight at JFK. Something he fails to mention in his statements.

He did say in his interview in the hospital that he saw "the President had slumped".

"...immediately, when I was hit, I said, "Oh, no, no, no." And then I said, "My God, they are going to kill us all." Nellie, when she pulled me over into her lap..."

I'm not really seeing this uncertainty you're talking about.

The uncertainty is evident in the fact that in 1966 in the Life article (25 Nov 1966) he said:

• “Between the time I heard the first shot and felt the impact of the other bullet that obviously hit me, I sensed something was wrong, and said, ‘Oh no, no, no.’ After I felt the impact I glanced down and saw that my whole chest was covered with blood.”

Also, in his testimony before the HSCA he said:

• “When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
  after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
  no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
  24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed.
  
  The President had been so marvelously received and then here,
  at the last moment, this great tragedy. I just said, "no, no, no, no."
  Then I said right after I was hit, I said, "My God, they are going to
  kill us all.”

This is a revealing statement.  While he could not recall when exactly he uttered the "no, no, no", he did recall why he said it:  out of concern for the president being assassinated and not because he had just been hit in the back.  So that fits with having said it before he was hit.  And it also explains how he would have known that JFK had been hit and had slumped.  His statement "they are going to kill us all" indicates that he was aware at that time that JFK had been hit.

He's hit
Immediately calls out "Oh, no, no, no"
Says "My God, they're going to kill us all"
Is pulled into Nellie's lap

The possibility exists Nellie is mistaken

That is a possibility. Sure. But if she was mistaken about that and JBC was hit at z223, she was also mistaken about seeing JFK clutching at his neck/face BEFORE her husband was hit.  And she was also mistaken that she reached out to pull him down immediately after he was hit because she does not appear to do anything of the kind until after z278 when JBC begins to fall back onto her.

[Jack Nessan]

Mrs Connolly's testimony to W.C.

Mrs. CONNALLY. Yes; and it seemed to me there was--he made no utterance, no cry. I saw no blood, no anything. It was just sort of nothing, the expression on his face, and he just sort of slumped down.
Then very soon there was the second shot that hit John. As the first shot was hit, and I turned to look at the same time, I recall John saying, "Oh, no, no, no." Then there was a second shot, and it hit John, and as he recoiled to the right, just crumpled like a wounded animal to the right, he said, "My God, they are going to kill us all."

Mrs Connolly's testimony to W.C.

Mrs. CONNALLY. Yes; and it seemed to me there was--he made no utterance, no cry. I saw no blood, no anything. It was just sort of nothing, the expression on his face, and he just sort of slumped down.
Then very soon there was the second shot that hit John. As the first shot was hit, and I turned to look at the same time, I recall John saying, "Oh, no, no, no." Then there was a second shot, and it hit John, and as he recoiled to the right, just crumpled like a wounded animal to the right, he said, "My God, they are going to kill us all."

Nelly referencing JBC's own words to identify JBC as being hit by the first shot. Same as Jackie.

[Ray Mitcham]

Mrs Connolly's testimony to W.C.

Mrs. CONNALLY. Yes; and it seemed to me there was--he made no utterance, no cry. I saw no blood, no anything. It was just sort of nothing, the expression on his face, and he just sort of slumped down.
Then very soon there was the second shot that hit John. As the first shot was hit, and I turned to look at the same time, I recall John saying, "Oh, no, no, no." Then there was a second shot, and it hit John, and as he recoiled to the right, just crumpled like a wounded animal to the right, he said, "My God, they are going to kill us all."

Nelly referencing JBC's own words to identify JBC as being hit by the first shot. Same as Jackie.

Where did Jackie say JBC was hit by the first shot?


What  you don't understand that Mrs Connolly said JBC  was hit by the second shot.


"Mrs. CONNALLY. Yes; and it seemed to me there was--he made no utterance, no cry. I saw no blood, no anything. It was just sort of nothing, the expression on his face, and he just sort of slumped down.
Then very soon there was the second shot that hit John. As the first shot was hit, and I turned to look at the same time, I recall John saying, "Oh, no, no, no." Then there was a second shot, and it hit John, and as he recoiled to the right, just crumpled like a wounded animal to the right, he said, "My God, they are going to kill us all."

As the first shot was hit...I recall John saying Oh, no,no,no Then there was a second shot and it hit John

[Dan O'meara]

I think you are stretching it a bit to call a 25-28 frame - 1.5 second - delay "bizarre".  Given what he had to do to react, it might be considered rather quick.  It was certainly quicker than Kellerman's reaction which does not begin until z252.

Keep in mind, JBC's was not a reaction prompted by recognizing a physical impact. His brain first had to recognize the sound as a gunshot.  Then his brain had to process the significance of that sound ie. that an assassination of the President was unfolding.  Then his brain had to make a decision to turn around to check on JFK.  Then the brain had to instruct the muscles to co-ordinate a turn to the rear to perform the check. All of that took 25-28 frames (z195-198 to z223) or 1.37 to 1.53 seconds.

And that is assuming that his reaction began at z223.  It may not have.  If you look at JBC's shirt, the amount of white shirt visible in z222 is less than in z223. In fact, z222 and z224 look very similar (so much for the jacket bulge theory).  One possible and very reasonable explanation would be that, while he is behind the sign, JBC is already beginning to move his body.
?? I agree that he doesn't turn around to see JFK until after JFK is shot (on the first shot).  JBC said he turned around after the first shot and before he - JBC - was hit in the back.  So, according to the evidence, that turn is before JBC was hit in the back.
The evidentiary context in which JBC turned around to see JFK was JBC reacting to the sound of the shot.  The actions that you describe are, according to the evidence, the result of JFK being hit by the first shot and JBC reacting to hearing it, not being hit in the back by it. 
He did say in his interview in the hospital that he saw "the President had slumped".
The uncertainty is evident in the fact that in 1966 in the Life article (25 Nov 1966) he said:

• “Between the time I heard the first shot and felt the impact of the other bullet that obviously hit me, I sensed something was wrong, and said, ‘Oh no, no, no.’ After I felt the impact I glanced down and saw that my whole chest was covered with blood.”

Also, in his testimony before the HSCA he said:

• “When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
  after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
  no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
  24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed.
  
  The President had been so marvelously received and then here,
  at the last moment, this great tragedy. I just said, "no, no, no, no."
  Then I said right after I was hit, I said, "My God, they are going to
  kill us all.”

This is a revealing statement.  While he could not recall when exactly he uttered the "no, no, no", he did recall why he said it:  out of concern for the president being assassinated and not because he had just been hit in the back.  So that fits with having said it before he was hit.  And it also explains how he would have known that JFK had been hit and had slumped.  His statement "they are going to kill us all" indicates that he was aware at that time that JFK had been hit. That is a possibility. Sure. But if she was mistaken about that and JBC was hit at z223, she was also mistaken about seeing JFK clutching at his neck/face BEFORE her husband was hit.  And she was also mistaken that she reached out to pull him down immediately after he was hit because she does not appear to do anything of the kind until after z278 when JBC begins to fall back onto her.

And this is exactly why I consider the confusion and contradiction of eye-witness testimony to be 'secondary' evidence.
JBC says "Oh, no, no, no" immediately after he is shot but Nellie says it was before he was shot then JBC contradicts himself and says it was after and that he "just said" it because the day was spoiled (LOL) even though Jackie remembers him screaming like a stuck pig but she doesn't remember climbing on to the trunk. JBC sees the president slumped over but also states -  "I did not see the President at any time either after the first, second, or third shots". Nellie says she comforted JBC after the headshot, JBC says it was before the headshot, Kellerman is absolutely positive JFK shouts out "My God, I am hit" but he is silent according to everyone else, Greer doesn't hear anybody say anything and on and on and on...

The contradictory nature of these testimonies can be manipulated to support almost any scenario and in that sense are useless.
In my opinion the Z-film is 'primary' evidence and eye-witness testimony can only be validated if it is represented in the Z-film.
The pages of arguments I have presented demonstrating a first shot hit at z223 have deliberately avoided witness statements (for the very reasons we see above) but is there a way of validating these statements through the Z-film?
For example - Nellie testifies that:

"The third shot that I heard I felt, it felt like spent buckshot falling all over us, and then, of course, I too could see that it was the matter, brain tissue, or whatever, just human matter, all over the car and both of us.
I thought John had been killed, and then there was some imperceptible movement, just some little something that let me know that there was still some life, and that is when I started saying to him, "It's all right. Be still."

In the Z-film the moment the headshot occurs both JBC and Nellie immediately duck down in front of the jump seats. There is no time for Nellie to comfort JBC or notice the 'human matter' over everything. These are possibly things that happened later in the journey.
However, JBC testifies Nellie comforts him before the headshot and the Z-film appears to show Nellie lean towards JBC's ear  at which point she could  say something to him. Although not definitive, the Z-film supports JBC's testimony to a certain extent and refutes Nellie's testimony.
I believe this is how witness statements should be viewed - through the lens of the Z-film:

[Dan O'meara]

On another thread Robin Unger posted this very clear Gif (excellent work again Robin).
It shows JBC rising and looking back towards the president after ducking down in front of the jump seats.
Although he may (or may not) hint at this, nowhere in the dozens of statements he gave in interviews, reports, testimonies etc., does JBC mention this specific and notable action.
Like Jackie forgetting she climbed on the trunk, JBC seems to have forgotten this quite significant action, highlighting the dubious nature of putting eye-witness testimony before the Z-film:

[Andrew Mason]

And this is exactly why I consider the confusion and contradiction of eye-witness testimony to be 'secondary' evidence.
....

The contradictory nature of these testimonies can be manipulated to support almost any scenario and in that sense are useless.
In my opinion the Z-film is 'primary' evidence and eye-witness testimony can only be validated if it is represented in the Z-film.

So what in the zfilm makes you think there were three shots?  What makes you think that the shot that struck JFK in the neck was the first shot?  I agree with both of those facts, but it is not because of the zfilm. It is the consistency of the witness evidence that tells us that.

Just because witnesses can be unreliable does not mean that they always or even usually are.  We are unable to rely on Kellerman's evidence that JFK spoke after the first shot because it conflicts with all the other witnesses who said that he uttered nothing (which is consistent with having his speech apparatus damaged).  But that does not mean that we cannot rely on the Connally's evidence.  Their evidence on what occurred is perfectly consistent with what is seen in the zfilm.

The pages of arguments I have presented demonstrating a first shot hit at z223 have deliberately avoided witness statements (for the very reasons we see above) but is there a way of validating these statements through the Z-film?
...
However, JBC testifies Nellie comforts him before the headshot and the Z-film appears to show Nellie lean towards JBC's ear  at which point she could  say something to him. Although not definitive, the Z-film supports JBC's testimony to a certain extent and refutes Nellie's testimony.
I believe this is how witness statements should be viewed - through the lens of the Z-film:

Where is the contradiction between Nellie and JBC? Both said that she pulled him down and said repeatedly "be still". Both said that occurred before and after the head shot.