The First Shot

[Zeon Mason]

Another  reason for discredit Rowland is that Rowland observed the SW window gunman at 12:15 at the same time of Carolyn Arnolds estimated 12:15 sighting  of Oswald in the 2nd floor lunchroom.

It makes the logistics for Oswald more complex.

if the SW gunman is Oswald then eirher Oswajd was seen by Carolyn approx 12:13 just he went up to the 6th floor or he was seen by Carolyn approx 12:17 after he left from the SW window at 12:15 .

2 minutes travel time either way plus some time to either retrieve a hidden rifle rifle or hide rifle again.

There also a problem with BR Williams at the SE window at 12:15 and the timing of BRW not leaving that window until approx 12:23:30 secs.

It has be approx 12;23:30 since Harold Norman and James Jarman arrive to their 5th floor windows approx 12:24 if they left from the front entrance TSBD when they heard a motorcycle radio at 12;22 reporting the JFK motorcade en route to Feakey Plaza.

So Rowland  forces an examination that causes complications just as Dorothy Garners statements do.

The WC was a prosecutorial investigation with a directive that Oswald must be found guilty and the public be convinced there was no conspiracy.

Naturally therefore any witnesses causing the theory to be conflicted so much as to make it implausible had to be minimized, discredited or in the case of Garner, and the Hosty notes, omitted or suppressed.

[Andrew Mason]

The high numbers of that study improved based on the "salience of an item" or how prominent it appeared to observers (the test is almost all visual, BTW). In Dealey Plaza, the "first shot" that was treated by many as an ordinary "backfire" or "firecracker" was not that salient to some of those, and so did not trigger the mental preparation to gauge the "shot spanning" of unanticipated shots.

If you will notice, items with the lowest salience score still scored more than 60% in terms of accuracy and completeness.  The salience of the shot spacing is the proportion of observers who reported on a detail without being asked. There were 178 witnesses who commented on the shots (according the the HSCA study by D. M. Green, 8 HSCA 128) and 62 who commented on the shot spacing.  If you remove all those who only commented on the shot spacing when asked, the salience might be down around 10%, which has an expected accuracy of 78%. In this case that looks about right: 47/62 = 76%. 

Bugliosi--a renowned lawyer who could teach you a thing or two--says "they were in no position to compare the space between the second and third shots with that of the first and second."

    "When a complex incident is witnessed, not all of the details
     within that incident are equally salient, or memorable, to the
     viewer or hearer. Some things just catch our attention more
     readily than others."

And if Bugliosi knew anything about studies to back this notion up, I am sure he would have cited them. He didn't.

How does Mrs. Loftus' words apply to all that was going on the seconds before and after the first shot? Crowd shouts and vehicle acceleration noise, trying to see the Kennedys and other dignitaries in the motorcade, a friend or family member getting your attention. All that outweighs something perceived by some, not all, as a "backfire" or "firecracker".

So, if that was the case, they would be guessing at the shot spacing because it was not something that they observed.  The distribution would be fairly flat in that case because there should be no preference for a particular pattern if they were guessing.  It isn't.

The chart was produced by you? Now we know it's full of cherry-picks!

I put all the witnesses who commented on the shot spacing in my paper.  If you think I missed any, let me know.

Dave Reitzes' tabulation didn't show such a skewed cluster:

    "My preliminary finding is that 58 witnesses reported that the
     second two shots were timed more closely together, 39 reported
     that the shots were timed about evenly, and 15 reported that
     the first two shots were timed more closely together."

I don't know where he gets his numbers.  Perhaps he should identify who they are.  I went through the statements of each witness in Stuart Galanor's tabulation to compile my list.

The Commission didn't seem to accept (as you have) without question Phil Willis' "instantaneous" claim. The Report justified its belief that the President was not wounded earlier than Z210:

They did not know it was taken at z202. If they had figured that out, they would have said so.  It was not until the HSCA that this was reported.

Your map shows a green line exactly midway between the lamp post and the Thornton sign. And you seem to be associating this film capture with the map. Are you saying that this film capture you've been posting shows the "Kennedy" surrogate exactly midway between the lamp post and the Thornton sign?

No.  I am showing you that JFK was in the clear when the car was anywhere between the lamp post and the Thornton sign. In that frame he is almost up to the Thornton Freeway sign and the front of the car is past the sign.  In this frame, JFK is quite visible and he is about midway between the lamp post and sign:

See if I can get you to shave a little more off that "6 feet shorter".
Some of these pictures are from Robin Unger's Photo Gallery, showing a Lincoln Continental was used for the reenactment. The SS-X-100 Presidential Limousine was said to be about 3 1/2 feet longer than the stock 1961 Continental it was built up from.

I've seen your photogrammetry skills. And maybe if you didn't use the blurriest SS reenactment photos you could find (to make it seem like the foliage didn't impede the view to the car) you might have determined the car's model.

I thought it looked like the car used by  the Cabells in the motorcade, which was a 1963 Mercury Comet convertible. But you may be right about it being a Lincoln.  What is your source for that?  As I said, it doesn't really matter because the issue is the location of JFK, not the car.

[Dan O'meara]

Further evidence of a strike at z223.
This is a refinement of arguments presented elsewhere in the thread but with a focus on "cavitation".
This is an effect where a bullet passing through soft tissue, as demonstrated in the video below:

It isn't just the bullet that causes damage when it passes through a body. Cavitation can have an equally devastating effect on the tissue and, in particular nerves. When the bullet passes through JFK's neck, there is the damage caused by the bullet and damage caused by cavitation. The bullet passes through an area called the Brachial Plexus, an area dense in nerves coming out of the spinal column. In the diagram below the red dot represents the approximate position the bullet enters his upper back/lower neck:




Comments from Dr. Robert Artwohl explaining why we saw the arms stiffening upward.
“JFK’s reaction to the neck wound was, for all intents and purposes, instantaneous to the hit at Z-223/224. As the bullet passed through his neck, the pressure cavity caused an immediate and wide spread stimulation of all the nerves in the immediate vicinity, that is of the brachial plexus, the large group of nerves that emerge from C5-T1. These are the nerves that supply motor function to the arms.”

"Comments from neurologist Dr. Strully in a letter sent by Dr. Strully to Dr. Robert Artwohl, dated April 9, 1994 as to an even greater possible extent of the muscle contractions:

 "Before all else, it is necessary to remember that this assassination reveals a sequence of neural responses initiated in the neck by the shock wave and cavitation induced by the bullet in its traverse of the neck.  This traumatized all structures in a 6 inch radius in all directions from the path of passage through the neck.  This spread of forces occurred in a fraction of a second, traumatizing all neural structures in the immediate vicinity within a fraction of a second as determined by the speed of the missile according to ballistic studies.
As a result, contraction of the muscles innervated by nerves closest to the bullet's path took place first; -- right deltoid, left deltoid, right biceps followed by the left biceps and sequential contraction of all muscles in the forearms, hands, chest, abdominal walls and paraspinal muscle groups, with muscles in the lower extremities, farthest from the shock wave, responding last.  All neural structures in the neck were stimulated at the same moment…” [posted by Brian Roselle]

The effect of cavitation causes an "instantaneous" contraction of all the arm muscles. This is clearly seen in the Z-film as JFK's elbows fly up to their highest point and the top half of his body appears to momentarily stiffen. It is a radical, extreme and instantaneous reflex reaction caused by the wholesale damage of nerves in the Brachial Plexus.
How quickly is "instantaneous" for a reflex reaction:


"While human reaction times tend to require hundreds of milliseconds, "One of the fastest [neural feedback] loops is from arm sensors to spinal cord and back out to arm muscles: it takes 110 milliseconds for feedback corrections to be made to an arm movement." (William H. Calvin, "The unitary hypothesis: A common neural circuitry for novel manipulations, language, plan-ahead, and throwing?" in Tools, Language, and Cognition in Human Evolution, edited by Kathleen R. Gibson and Tim Ingold. Cambridge University Press, pp. 230-250, [1993].)

So there could already be a reaction of a subject's arms in as early as 110 milliseconds, the equivalent of two Zapruder frames. But, of course, with JFK and Gov. Connally shot between 223 and 224, we should not be able to discern a significant reaction before frame 226. While only a few milliseconds later, this would still be too late.

However, an experiment cited by conspiracist Milicent Cranor demonstrates that even less time may be required.

Cranor summarizes a study published in the British journal, Brain (Brown P, Rothwell JC, Thompson PD, Britton TC, Day BL, and Marsden CD. New observations on the normal auditory startle reflex in man. Brain 1991; 114:1891-1902):

Auditory Stimulus Response Times in Milliseconds (m/s)
The following figures come from a study by Brown et al, published in the British journal, Brain. The authors tested the latency period (time it takes to respond) of the auditory startle reflex in 12 healthy volunteers ranging in age from 18 to 80 years. While relaxing in a chair, the subjects were randomly treated about every 20 minutes to a tone burst of 124 decibels, the equivalent BANG! of a car backfire 20 feet away. The average latency period of the relevant muscle groups in milliseconds:

Neck: 58 m/s (range 40-136 m/s)
Paraspinal muscles: 60 m/s (range: 48-120 m/s)

Forearm Flexors: 82 m/s (range: 60-200 m/s)

Forearm Extensors: 73 m/s (range 62-173 m/s)

Thumb: 99 m/s (range 75-179 m/s)

Back of Hand: 99 m/s (range 72-176 m/s)

The authors concluded:

"The most generalized startle response to the standard sound stimulus employed consisted of eye closure, grimacing, neck flexion, trunk flexion, slight abduction of the arms, flexion of the elbows and pronation of the forearms. There was considerable variation in the degree to which this response was expressed, and in some subjects only eye closure and flexion of the neck was apparent."

[See Cranor, "Neurology and Jiggle Analysis"]

The experiment demonstrated that, in response to an auditory stimulus, quantifiable physical reactions can be observed occurring most quickly in muscles the shortest distance from the brain: in the neck as quickly as 40 milliseconds (less than one Zapruder frame), in the paraspinal muscles as quickly as 48 milliseconds (less than one Zapruder frame), in the forearm flexors as quickly as 60 milliseconds (slightly more than one Zapruder frame), in the forearm extensors as quickly as 62 milliseconds (slightly more than one Zapruder frame), in the thumb as quickly as 75 milliseconds, and in the back of the hand as quickly as 72 milliseconds.

Hit the start button above to see frames where Kennedy and Connally are hit by the Single Bullet. Note that Kennedy's hand is moving downward between Zapruder Frames 224 and 225. Connally's torso hunches between 224 and 225, and both men have shocked expressions on their faces. Clip produced by Ken McDonald.
This means that it is possible for JFK and Gov. Connally, if struck between frames 223 and 224, to display quantifiable reactions originating in the men's necks and paraspinal muscles — and, depending on how many milliseconds elapsed between the shot and the exposure of frame 224, possibly even their forearm flexors, forearm extensors, and hands — as early as frame 225."


JFK's extreme reaction to being shot through the neck begins milliseconds after the bullet has traversed his body. Within a single
 Z-frame his reaction has begun. The best way to gauge when JFK begins to react is to focus on his left arm. The footage below (z169-226) shows JFK's last wave. It starts with his right arm resting on the side of the limo, elbow out, with his right hand reaching back into the limo holding his left hand, which appears to rest on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side. He releases his left hand as he begins to wave with his right. His left hand stays resting on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side. His left arm/hand stays in this position as he goes behind the sign and is still in this position as he emerges from it:[/b]



When he emerges from behind the Stemmons sign (z225) his left arm is still down by his side but there is a hint of movement. By z226 his left elbow has begun it's radical and extreme movement up to it's fullest extent. For an "instantaneous" reaction this would indicate a shot passing through JFK around z223/z224

In the clip below (z224-226) we see his left hand still resting on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side but obscured by the top of the limo door (z224). In the next frame there is a slight movement of his left arm and hand (z225). In the final frame his elbow comes into view from behind the limo door, his hand clearly moving to his throat (z226):



The damage caused by cavitation "traumatized all structures in a 6 inch radius". This caused an "instantaneous" contraction of all the muscles in JFK's arms, as seen in the Z-film.
As demonstrated convincingly elsewhere in this thread, the first shot was the one that passed through JFK's neck, thus the first shot was at z223.
Any proposal for an earlier shot must ignore all the above evidence.

[Andrew Mason]

As demonstrated convincingly elsewhere in this thread, the first shot was the one that passed through JFK's neck, thus the first shot was at z223.
Any proposal for an earlier shot must ignore all the above evidence.

First of all, this is not "evidence".  It is opinion and theory.  Second, these opinions and theory are based on certain assumptions which are not in evidence. These assumptions include: 1)  the change in hand positions from z200 to z224 was a coincidental voluntary movement of the hands unrelated to being struck by a bullet; 2) the nerves exiting the cervical and upper thoracic spine near the bullet path sent uncontrolled impulses to the arms that caused them to move up toward the neck; 3) that the auditory reflex could operate in these circumstances; 4) that the response of the arms to these uncontrolled nerve impulses would be what is seen in z226

The auditory response is not applicable to this case, since it the bullet struck before any sound would have reached JFK.  So we are generally stuck with the 110 ms minimum for a physical response. That is 2 zframes.

The fact is that we do not see JFK before z224 so we don't know when his reaction began. The HSCA was of the view that JFK's physical reaction to "some severe external stimulus" began before JFK disappeared from view at about z207. (6 HSCA 16)

So, even if there was necessarily a visible physical reaction within 110 ms. of the bullet passing through JFK's neck, one cannot tell from his movements after he emerges from behind the Stemmons sign that this is not a continuation of a reaction that began well before z224. 

[Dan O'meara]

First of all, this is not "evidence".  It is opinion and theory.  Second, these opinions and theory are based on certain assumptions which are not in evidence. These assumptions include: 1)  the change in hand positions from z200 to z224 was a coincidental voluntary movement of the hands unrelated to being struck by a bullet; 2) the nerves exiting the cervical and upper thoracic spine near the bullet path sent uncontrolled impulses to the arms that caused them to move up toward the neck; 3) that the auditory reflex could operate in these circumstances; 4) that the response of the arms to these uncontrolled nerve impulses would be what is seen in z226

The auditory response is not applicable to this case, since it the bullet struck before any sound would have reached JFK.  So we are generally stuck with the 110 ms minimum for a physical response. That is 2 zframes.

The fact is that we do not see JFK before z224 so we don't know when his reaction began. The HSCA was of the view that JFK's physical reaction to "some severe external stimulus" began before JFK disappeared from view at about z207. (6 HSCA 16)

So, even if there was necessarily a visible physical reaction within 110 ms. of the bullet passing through JFK's neck, one cannot tell from his movements after he emerges from behind the Stemmons sign that this is not a continuation of a reaction that began well before z224.

If you want to argue against the effects of "cavitation" let's hear it.
If you want to argue against the scientific expertise of Drs. Artwohl and Strully let's hear it.
If you want to argue against the scientific studies put forward by Cantor for reaction times let's hear it.
The "instantaneous", radical and extreme reflex reactions of JFK to being shot through the throat are recorded on the Z-film. If you want to argue that, let's hear it.

These assumptions include: 1)  the change in hand positions from z200 to z224 was a coincidental voluntary movement of the hands unrelated to being struck by a bullet;

Show where I have made this assumption.

3) that the auditory reflex could operate in these circumstances;

Show where I have made this assumption.

So we are generally stuck with the 110 ms minimum for a physical response.

What are you basing this on?

What do you understand from the following passage:

"As a result, contraction of the muscles innervated by nerves closest to the bullet's path took place first; -- right deltoid, left deltoid, right biceps followed by the left biceps and sequential contraction of all muscles in the forearms, hands, chest, abdominal walls and paraspinal muscle groups, with muscles in the lower extremities, farthest from the shock wave, responding last.  All neural structures in the neck were stimulated at the same moment…”

[Andrew Mason]

If you want to argue against the effects of "cavitation" let's hear it.
If you want to argue against the scientific expertise of Drs. Artwohl and Strully let's hear it.
If you want to argue against the scientific studies put forward by Cantor for reaction times let's hear it.
The "instantaneous", radical and extreme reflex reactions of JFK to being shot through the throat are recorded on the Z-film. If you want to argue that, let's hear it.

These assumptions include: 1)  the change in hand positions from z200 to z224 was a coincidental voluntary movement of the hands unrelated to being struck by a bullet;

Show where I have made this assumption.

You can see hand movement from z200-207.  That is before you say there was a first shot at z223.   One sees that JFK's hands have moved from the high waving position in z200 to hands in front of his torso at z224.  That could not have occurred between z223 and z224 (55 ms).  So you must be assuming that it occurred prior to the first shot.

3) that the auditory reflex could operate in these circumstances;

Show where I have made this assumption.

I didn't say you made that assumption. But you did take the trouble to mention it.  You seemed to be saying that the "auditory stimulus response" allows a reaction to be quicker than 110 ms.

So we are generally stuck with the 110 ms minimum for a physical response.

What are you basing this on?

Your statement absent the auditory reflex.  Even Olympic track starts use a 100 ms limit to the human response to an auditory stimulus.

What do you understand from the following passage:

"As a result, contraction of the muscles innervated by nerves closest to the bullet's path took place first; -- right deltoid, left deltoid, right biceps followed by the left biceps and sequential contraction of all muscles in the forearms, hands, chest, abdominal walls and paraspinal muscle groups, with muscles in the lower extremities, farthest from the shock wave, responding last.  All neural structures in the neck were stimulated at the same moment…”

Do you have any evidence that this has ever occurred in materially less than 110 ms?

[Dan O'meara]

You can see hand movement from z200-207.  That is before you say there was a first shot at z223.   One sees that JFK's hands have moved from the high waving position in z200 to hands in front of his torso at z224.  That could not have occurred between z223 and z224 (55 ms).  So you must be assuming that it occurred prior to the first shot.

When you write - "One sees that JFK's hands have moved from the high waving position" - you are talking about JFK's right hand (not hands). Nowhere in my post have I used JFK's right hand/arm to demonstrate the "instantaneous" reflex reaction caused by the effect of the bullet and accompanying cavitation traumatising the area of the Brachial Plaexus through which the bullet transits. I made this clear when I posted:

"The best way to gauge when JFK begins to react is to focus on his left arm."

LEFT ARM

",,,reaching back into the limo holding his left hand, which appears to rest on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side. He releases his left hand as he begins to wave with his right. His left hand stays resting on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side. His left arm/hand stays in this position as he goes behind the sign and is still in this position as he emerges from it:[/b]

If I haven't been clear enough, allow me to clarify.
In the clip below focus on JFK's LEFT ARM/HAND:



JFK's left arm is down by his side and his left hand is resting on his stomach area. It's a relaxed position and it stays like this as he passes behind the Stemmons sign.

Now here comes the important part -

As JFK emerges from behind the Stemmons sign his left arm is still down by his side and his left hand is still resting on his stomach area.
The reason this important is because it shows there has been no movement of JFK's left arm/hand as he passes behind the Stemmons sign, it is in the same position. There is no sign that the left arm/hand is reacting to anything when we see JFK emerge from behind the Stemmons sign.

The Gif below shows Z-frames 224. 225. and 226.
Still focusing on JFK's LEFT ARM/HAND:

z224 shows the left arm down by the side. The left elbow is hidden below the edge of the door.
z225 shows a slight movement of the left arm but the left elbow is still below the edge of the door.
z226 shows the left arm is definitely beginning to rise as the left elbow comes above the edge of the door.



It must be remembered that as the Z-film rolls on from this point we see both JFK's arms flying up to the "elbows fully extended" position within a fraction of a second. JFK's left arm coming up from his side, as shown in the Gif above, is the beginning of his rapid and extreme reaction to the effect of the bullet and cavitation passing through the Brachial Plexus.
This is made clear by the comments of Drs Artwohl and Strully:

“JFK’s reaction to the neck wound was, for all intents and purposes, instantaneous to the hit at Z-223/224. As the bullet passed through his neck, the pressure cavity caused an immediate and wide spread stimulation of all the nerves in the immediate vicinity, that is of the brachial plexus, the large group of nerves that emerge from C5-T1. These are the nerves that supply motor function to the arms.”

The nerves of the Brachial Plexus supply the motor functions to the arms.

"Before all else, it is necessary to remember that this assassination reveals a sequence of neural responses initiated in the neck by the shock wave and cavitation induced by the bullet in its traverse of the neck.  This traumatized all structures in a 6 inch radius in all directions from the path of passage through the neck.  This spread of forces occurred in a fraction of a second, traumatizing all neural structures in the immediate vicinity within a fraction of a second as determined by the speed of the missile according to ballistic studies.

The result of cavitation is that the nerves of the Brachial Plexus are traumatised within a fraction of a second. This has an "instantaneous" effect on the nerves that supply the motor functions for the arms. Dr. Strully describes the effect we see happening to JFK in detail:

"As a result, contraction of the muscles innervated by nerves closest to the bullet's path took place first; -- right deltoid, left deltoid, right biceps followed by the left biceps and sequential contraction of all muscles in the forearms, hands, chest, abdominal walls and paraspinal muscle groups, with muscles in the lower extremities, farthest from the shock wave, responding last.  All neural structures in the neck were stimulated at the same moment…”

Within a fraction of a second all the muscles described by Dr Strully contract. It is this contraction of these muscles that we see in the Z-film and the analysis of the left arm presented above demonstrates conclusively that this reflex reaction can be visually seen to be taken place by z225/6.
This means the stimulus that caused this radical reaction occurred a fraction of a second before this.
Perfectly in accordance with a strike at z223.

Finally, it can be stated conclusively that such a strike at z195 would have caused JFK's arm's to fly up before he even went behind the Stemmons sign. Any strike earlier than z223 is utterly refuted by the effect of the bullet and accompanying cavitation on the nerves of the Brachial Plexus.

[Andrew Mason]

When you write - "One sees that JFK's hands have moved from the high waving position" - you are talking about JFK's right hand (not hands). Nowhere in my post have I used JFK's right hand/arm to demonstrate the "instantaneous" reflex reaction caused by the effect of the bullet and accompanying cavitation traumatising the area of the Brachial Plaexus through which the bullet transits. I made this clear when I posted:

"The best way to gauge when JFK begins to react is to focus on his left arm."

LEFT ARM

",,,reaching back into the limo holding his left hand, which appears to rest on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side. He releases his left hand as he begins to wave with his right. His left hand stays resting on his stomach area, his left elbow down by his side. His left arm/hand stays in this position as he goes behind the sign and is still in this position as he emerges from it:[/b]

So you agree that the movement of the right arm from the high position in z200 to the claw position seen in z225 is just a coincidence. 

There is a small but noticeable change in the orientation of the left hand.  Prior to the sign it appears to be relaxed and directed across his body. In z224 it is in a claw position pointing up and you can see his watch:

"As a result, contraction of the muscles innervated by nerves closest to the bullet's path took place first; -- right deltoid, left deltoid, right biceps followed by the left biceps and sequential contraction of all muscles in the forearms, hands, chest, abdominal walls and paraspinal muscle groups, with muscles in the lower extremities, farthest from the shock wave, responding last.  All neural structures in the neck were stimulated at the same moment…”

Within a fraction of a second all the muscles described by Dr Strully contract. It is this contraction of these muscles that we see in the Z-film and the analysis of the left arm presented above demonstrates conclusively that this reflex reaction can be visually seen to be taken place by z225/6.
This means the stimulus that caused this radical reaction occurred a fraction of a second before this.
Perfectly in accordance with a strike at z223.

Finally, it can be stated conclusively that such a strike at z195 would have caused JFK's arm's to fly up before he even went behind the Stemmons sign. Any strike earlier than z223 is utterly refuted by the effect of the bullet and accompanying cavitation on the nerves of the Brachial Plexus.

I doubt very much that the temporary cavity was much bigger than the bullet diameter.  The bullet went through the strap muscles of the upper back, which are very strong muscles because they control the head and keep it vertical.  One would need some evidence that a bullet through a body at this point will cause reflex movement of the arms.  I don't see any evidence of that. It is just a theory and without testing the theory it really doesn't amount to anything.