That is the problem with relying on a single outlier witness. You have to look at all the evidence. There are many more witnesses who were clear from the start and never wavered on the number of shots or the shot pattern.
One thing that you, and I and Dan O'meara seem to be in complete agreement on, however, is that the first shot struck the President. That is a very important fact that is based on two independent pillars of evidence:
1. the many witnesses, like Brehm, Nellie Connally, Dave Powers, Clint Hill, Faye and John Chism, Gayle and Wm. Newman, Ike Altgens, SA Hickey, SA Kinney, SA Landis, who saw JFK react to the first shot (together the fact that not a single witness said he smiled and waved after the first shot, let alone for 3 seconds afterward).
2. the many witnesses including Betzner, occupants of the VP car and VP security car, Mary Woodward, who put the first shot well after z180.
But it is also the only conclusion that is possible with the 1........2....3 shot pattern recalled by over 40 witnesses (which is also consistent with the many witnesses who described a shot and then two more shots without explicitly stating the relative spacing) if the head shot was the last shot.
The medias influence began at 12:34 with Walter Cronkite reading Merrimans Smith's News flash.
"Three shots were fired at President Kennedy's motorcade today in downtown Dallas."
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Over 40 eyewitness accounts of just two shots and another 30 to 40 eyewitness accounts of a second shot head shot. Only two of the three shells were found to have been fired in the rifle. Evidence of just two bullets. FBI determined cycle time of the carcano was 2.3 seconds leaving only an even cadence of shots possible.
First shot Z220+, second shot Z312, end of story.
The first shot was fired while the limo was between where Jean Newman was standing and the Chisms who were located at the corner of the Stemmons Freeway sign. The first shot occurred directly in front of Calvery, Hicks, Reed, and Westbrook, the secretaries from the TSBD, who were interviewed by the FBI in February and March of 1964. Both the Chisms and Jean Newman stated there was just two shots. The secretaries never were asked. Woodward places the first shot after Z204 and JBC places the first shot when he is adjacent to the Chisms.
John Chism : "And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved at the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot,"
Jean Newman : "The motorcade had just passed me when I heard that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report"
Gloria Calvery : "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was Standing when I heard the first shot."
Karan Hicks : "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first explosion. I did not immediately recognize this sound as a gunshot"
Karen Westbrook : "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first explosion. I did not immediately recognize this sound as a gun shot ."
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Woodward said the earsplitting noise happened after JFK turned forward and not before. JFK does not turn forward until Z204+
Mary Woodward
"After acknowledging our cheers, he [JFK] faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-splitting noise coming from behind us and a little to the right.
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The only children on the right side of the street during the shooting was first the Chisms and then the Newmans.
Mr. SPECTER. When you turned to your right. Governor Connally, immediately after you heard the first shot. what did you see on that occasion?
Governor CONNALLY. Nothing of any significance except just people out on the grass slope. I didn't see anything that was out of the ordinary, just saw men, women, and children.