The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

Just a quick thought about those who believe that there was an early missed shot and that Oswald was stood up for this first shot.
I came across the picture below of people visiting the 6th floor of the old TSBD building.



It seems pretty obvious that if Oswald was stood up there is no way he could have fired through a window that was half closed (and why wouldn't he have it fully open if he was stood up while firing).
I drew a red line across the window to represent the bottom edge of the half-closed window (the half-closed window in the southeast corner can be seen in the background).
When I imagine the man with his hands behind his back holding a rifle and pointing it so it could shoot through the bottom portion of the window, it looks to me as if he'd be shooting the window sill. It doesn't appear that there is any angle to be firing into the street.
Thoughts?

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

The angle for Oswald's first shot of his 2 shots is easy.
Make a line starting at the collar where the 2 guy rods support the overhead signal arm.
Extend that line upwards to the open window.
If u extend that line downwards to jfk it will pass throo jfk at about pseudo Z105.

[Zeon Mason]

If the shooter is sitting in the box by the pipes which Charles has shown is plausible it really does not make much sense the shooter standing up intentionally trying to shoot an
 aimed shot as early as Z130 or Z140.

If the premise is that boxes were arranged as they were to be a firing platform then the shooter was going to simply lean over once the limo has passed by and to start shooting from this platform.

So the only other option is for a missed 1st shot that precedes Z224  is  the shooter inadvertently squeezing the trigger AS he leaned over from the box he was sitting on, and that the rifle angle was not aimed at the limo.

As much as I agree that scenario is  plausible it’s not probable imo. A 1st shot at Z130-Z140 to give the necessary gap longer between 1st and 2nd shot fitting the pattern of 1…2..3 would lengthen the Total time for completion of all 3 shots in 9-10 secs which is WAY longer than Harold Norman heard, and the smaller gap between 2nd and 3rd shots being 4.8 secs which is WAY longer than “back to back”. 

I don’t disagree with Dans idea that the 2nd shot could be 313 , and that the shooter in his crazed mind being “exuberant” that he had scored head shot fired one more shot rapidly without aiming ( thus possibly only 1.5 sec later if using the MC rifle)

It’s just that there are so few witness recalling any shot after Z313.

[Dan O'meara]

If the shooter is sitting in the box by the pipes which Charles has shown is plausible it really does not make much sense the shooter standing up intentionally trying to shoot an
 aimed shot as early as Z130 or Z140.

If the premise is that boxes were arranged as they were to be a firing platform then the shooter was going to simply lean over once the limo has passed by and to start shooting from this platform.

So the only other option is for a missed 1st shot that precedes Z224  is  the shooter inadvertently squeezing the trigger AS he leaned over from the box he was sitting on, and that the rifle angle was not aimed at the limo.

As much as I agree that scenario is  plausible it’s not probable imo. A 1st shot at Z130-Z140 to give the necessary gap longer between 1st and 2nd shot fitting the pattern of 1…2..3 would lengthen the Total time for completion of all 3 shots in 9-10 secs which is WAY longer than Harold Norman heard, and the smaller gap between 2nd and 3rd shots being 4.8 secs which is WAY longer than “back to back”. 

I don’t disagree with Dans idea that the 2nd shot could be 313 , and that the shooter in his crazed mind being “exuberant” that he had scored head shot fired one more shot rapidly without aiming ( thus possibly only 1.5 sec later if using the MC rifle)

It’s just that there are so few witness recalling any shot after Z313.

If the premise is that boxes were arranged as they were to be a firing platform then the shooter was going to simply lean over once the limo has passed by and to start shooting from this platform.

This simple and common sense point is somehow overlooked by those trying to push a ridiculously early shot.
The Sniper's Perch is the arrangement of boxes supposedly used by the shooter to rest his rifle on during the shooting.
This means the boxes were arranged BEFORE the shooting.
This means the shooter had already planned out what he was going to do BEFORE the motorcade arrived.
The arrangement of boxes tell us the shooter had decided that the 'kill zone' was going to be towards the triple underpass.



This is confirmed by the testimony of Ronald Fischer.
Fischer and his work colleague, Bob Edwards, were stood directly across from the TSBD building on Elm Street waiting for the motorcade. Edwards noticed a man on the 6th floor who seemed to be in a cramped, uncomfortable position, he pointed the man out to Fischer and made a joke about him. Something about the man made an impression on Fischer:

"And I looked up and I watched the man for, oh, I'd say, 10 or 15 seconds. It was until the first car came around the corner of Houston and Main. And, then, when that car did come around the corner, I took my attention off of the man in the window and started watching the parade. The man held my attention for 10 or 15 seconds, because he appeared uncomfortable for one, and, secondly, he wasn't watching-uh---he didn't look like he was watching for the parade. He looked like he was looking down toward the Trinity River and the triple underpass down at the end-toward the end of Ell Street. And--uh--all the time I watched him, he never moved his head, he never-he never moved anything. Just was there transfixed."

This is pretty much what the shooter was staring "transfixed" at:



The shooter knew exactly what he was going to do before the motorcade entered Dealey Plaza.
The area circled in the pic above is where the limo is moving almost directly away from his position. There would have been minimal lateral movement of the target.
He would have been aware of the oak tree and would have taken his first shot once the limo had moved into the open space as shown above. Once the limo had cleared the oak tree he would have had more than enough time to get multiple shots off while the target was in the 'kill zone'.
The idea that he was on his feet trying to shoot through an impossible gap in the half-closed window in an area where he had nowhere to stand is plain stupid.
He knew when he was going to take the first shot before the motorcade reached Dealey Plaza.
That he was going to wait until the limo was in the kill zone circled above is yet even more evidence that the first shot was taken at z222/z223.

[Dan O'meara]

The Scearce/Roselle 'study' is a so-called analysis of a handful of people in the Z-film (ignoring the hundreds of other people shown who apparently don't count).
It's supposed to be an analysis of startled reactions to the sound of a shot but, as we shall see, very few of the reactions are actually startled.
In reality, this is nothing more than projecting an interpretation on to a few people turning their heads.
But don't take my word for it.
Here is the heart of the 'study':



The tables describe the 'reactions' of certain people beginning at various z-frames. All Roselle and Scearce had to do was compare these reactions with the testimonies of these people to very quickly discover that they were simply projecting their own interpretations onto the Z-film.
For instance, Jackie Kennedy said she wasn't even aware of a first shot until John Connally started screaming like "stuck pig".  So how Roselle and Scearce can interpret her movements as being a reaction to the loud sound of a shot is truly baffling. She wasn't even aware of the sound of the first shot.
John Connally testified that JFK was hit by the first shot. This clearly does not happen when Roselle and Scearce propose Connally is reacting to the first shot as we see JFK smiling and waving after this moment. How easy is it to debunk this 'study'?
Why didn't they compare their subjective interpretations of what they thought they were seeing in the Z-film to the actual testimony of the people they were focusing on?? It's really difficult to understand why they didn't do such a basic thing if this was supposed to be a genuine, scientifically based study.

Roy Kellerman.
According to the study, Kellerman begins to react to the first shot around z148

"Begins leaning over and looking behind/down to the right"

This is what Kellerman had to say about the first shot in his WC testimony:

"As we turned off Houston onto Elm and made the short little dip to the left going down grade, as I said, we were away from buildings, and were there was a sign on the side of the road which I don't recall what it was or what it said, but we no more than passed that and you are out in the open, and there is a report like a firecracker, pop. And I turned my head to the right because whatever this noise was I was sure that it came from the right and perhaps into the rear..."

They were "away from the buildings", presumably meaning the TSBD building and there was a sign they had just passed and "you are out in the open".
The sign in question was the Thorntons Freeway sign.
The Tyler frame below shows the position of the presidential limo at z148. The Thornton sign is in the red circle.
The presidential limo in which Kellerman was riding has clearly not passed the Thornton sign. I'll leave it up to the reader to decide if it's "away from the buildings".



Does Kellerman's testimony match up with the findings of the study?
Not really.

George Hickey
According to the study, Hickey begins to react around z143/z144:

"Begins leaning over to the left looking down in the direction of the rear tire or ground"

This is what Hickey actually had to say about the first shot:

"I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear. I stood partially up and turned to the rear to see if I could observe anything."

In the study, Roselle and Scearce believe Hickey's reaction to the first shot is to look down to the left. In reality, his reaction is completely opposite - he turns to the right rear.
In fact, there is photographic evidence of Hickey's reaction to the first shot:

In Altgens 6 we see Agents Landis, Ready and Hickey looking over their right shoulders towards the TSBD, presumably in response to the sound of gunfire:


Landis - "I heard what sounded like the report of a high-powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder...", "My first glance was at the President, as I was practically looking in his direction anyway...", "I immediately returned my gaze, over my right shoulder."

Ready - "I heard what appeared to be fire crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location."

Hickey - "I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear. I stood partially up and turned to the rear to see if I could observe anything. "

Each agent describes their immediate reactions to hearing the first shot, turning to look over their right shoulders looking towards where they felt the sound came from. This is exactly what we see in Altgens 6. However, when we take a closer look at Zapruder we see no reaction from them (Hickey looks briefly over the side of the car but then returns to his original position). The partial footage of the Z-film below focuses on the follow-up car. It runs from z133 to z207. At no point do we see any reaction from the agents mentioned above. These trained agents may not be reacting to the sound of a shot, yet we are supposed to believe, according to Scearce and Roselle, that little Rosemary Willis is reacting to the sound of a shot:



A first shot as early as Roselle and Scearce are proposing is a nonsense and it doesn't take too much effort to demonstrate that.

[Tom Graves]

The tables describe the 'reactions' of certain people beginning at various z-frames. All Roselle and Scearce had to do was compare these reactions with the testimonies of these people to very quickly discover that they were simply projecting their own interpretations onto the Z-film.

Dear danny BOY o'meara,

Why would you rather rely on the hazy recollections of startled-and-traumatized-on-11/22/63 witnesses to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot instead of photographic evidence of the nearly simultaneous conscious reactions of seven prime witnesses (including JFK, himself) to said sounds?

-- Tom

[Benjamin Cole]

I think you are right.