The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist.  The obvious is his reaction like someone choking or about to gasp for breath.  The motion exhibited show the President in a motion to move his hands towards his neck and the continuance of the frames shows that.    There is an obvious reactive movement to something foreign that just occurred.   He normally would be continuing to wave.  To me, he  felt something hit him and instinctively moved hands to neck area as someone who is choking.  Frames later you can see his puffed cheeks which indicates breathing problems are occurring.  I would agree the shot came while he was hidden behind the sign and he changed his stance from crowd waving. 

I would be more apt to analyze how high his right elbow goes up in reaction.  For example, is this a defensive posture move as a bullet comes from grassy knoll direction to protect himself from a further assault?   His first reaction is not to duck and lower his head behind the seat.   Jacqueline quickly reaches over with both hands and puts her hand on his left arm to stabilize him.  The secondary movement of the crowd running to the grassy knoll should give secondary confirmation of where bullets where coming from.    Who benefits from a single lone nut gunman narrative that is contrary to the crowd's response? 

Reactions at or after Z313 by others in car are much more extreme but coincide more with a frontal/side assault than a rear assault.  Connally and front SS agent duck below seat level.  JFK's head move back with impact not forward.  Connally's head reappears behind driver's post in an obvious defensive move to move left and out of harm's way in the shuffle.   He is still very conscious of his movements and appears to be sitting or kneeling? there after the assassination was completed - his head wasn't in Nellie's lap yet!

In fact, the movement exhibited  at Z313 by the President is an exact same movement to the first shot.   His right elbow raises once more, just weaker.  This time it is a headshot but has exact same reaction exhibited by him.  Notably, the bullet also strikes a hard object (his head) and pushes it back.

The other thing to note is that if this was a mafia hit job and not an inside coup d'etat, you would expect more transparency and a real investigation to ensue.  There is nothing really to hide if it was the mafia and so why were there all the investigative problems/blunders and total lack of congruency - abetted confusion?  These people are not a bunch of bumbling idiots like they would have you to believe!   A totally controlled event including autopsy control, destroying or tampering with evidence , pristine bullets on stretchers found for example and creating statements and narrative as required.    This was total control, well planned and executed.   Car and body removed from Dallas and information released as required to paint a story.  Time is a great healer and so films hidden and released years later.   50 year seal orders placed to protect the guilty.  Most evidence really was shredded anyway and nothing left to hide as it was sanitized early on.   Why the need to protect if a LNer or even if mafia?       

This is a classic example of state controlled media and events - much of what we continue to see today.  Patriot's Act and Homeland Security Act which enacted to allow government to spy on its own people at will.  Was it politicized and used against Trump and his campaign and presidency?     2nd amendment rights are on the way out if they have their way and COVID used as a weapon to create unrest and violence and aid that end.    The scaremonger mentality is being pushed through once more with the help of media.  Do the people control the government or does the government control the people?   A lot of scientific expert opinions .....

I digress!  Clearly, currency is backed only by paper and not gold.  This started with FDR and Executive Order 6102 which banned people from owning gold!    Do the people of a nation benefit from such moves and erosion of their rights?    JFK saw this happening and called it the Military-Industrial Complex - Crony Capitalism for short.   Trump like JFK has no business interfering with their games and exposing the swamp and how they get rich and ride the wave.  Why do those in politics end up getting rich?  Did past Presidents Obama, Clinton, the Bushes and others make their money from Presidential wages or was it by other means?   Obviously you could launch an argument that they were just shrewd investors and used their wages "earned" to get rich - that's a laugh!   Did Biden give his brother choice military contracts in Iraq?

Democracy is nothing more than a facade.   Families run countries.   Whether Democracy, Communism or Socialism,  the scum always floats to the top, rich get richer and poor get poorer and politics has an "end".    Again sorry for the digression.

Some serious digressing here Allan, most of which I agree with but it doesn't concern us here. The point of this thread is to establish when the first of three assumed shots from the TSBD hit JFK. Some researchers believe the first shot missed and occurred before the Presidential limo passed behind the Stemmons sign (some have it before the limo appears in Zapruder - before z133). The arguments presented in this thread have, I believe, demonstrated that the first shot hit JFK and his reaction is clearly seen in the Z-film (clenched fists towards the throat, elbows extended).

"I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist."

Part of the evidence demonstrating this shot occurred after JFK passed behind the Stemmons sign is how JFK's right hand snaps shut in a fraction of a second, which I believe is a reflexive reaction to being shot. As a reflex reaction it is possible to find out how quickly after the initial stimulus (being shot) this reaction occurs and convert this time into z-frames and count back from the initial reaction to give a good estimate of when the initial stimulus occurred (ie: when JFK was hit by the first shot). In the clip posted it is possible to see his hand beginning to snap shut in z225 which pinpoints the moment of initial reaction. It is possible to estimate the speed this reaction would occur after the initial stimulus (a normal touch reaction is thought to be around 150 milliseconds but a reflex reaction is somewhat quicker. I would say 100 milliseconds is a fair estimate). If it is assumed that the stimulus occurs 100 milliseconds before the reaction and, as each Z-frame represents approximately 55 milliseconds it would be expected that the first shot hit JFK 2-3 Z-frames before the initial reaction. That is to say 2-3 Z-frames before z225 (z222/z223)

The clip below shows JFK's hand snapping shut. It must be remembered that it's in slo-mo and doesn't express the rapid nature of the hand-snap:

[John Iacoletti]

Well, Dan, since SS, FBI, etc., in their initial surveys completed by Mr. West in late 1963 located the first hit at Z207, why exactly do you feel the need, 57 years later, to reexamine what was/is already known.

The Z film is one big 26-second long Rorschach test.

[Dan O'meara]

Well, Dan, since SS, FBI, etc., in their initial surveys completed by Mr. West in late 1963 located the first hit at Z207, why exactly do you feel the need, 57 years later, to reexamine what was/is already known.

I get the impression there's something about this thread you're not quite grasping. It's about the timing of the first of three assumed shots that came from the TSBD. You keep bringing up the partial survey of Dealey Plaza completed by Robert West but, and maybe I'm wrong here, you seem to think that the West survey had something to do with establishing the timing of the shots.
It had absolutely nothing to do with the West survey!
These timings were provided to West. The timings were not established by the survey itself. The arguments presented in this thread demonstrate that the timing of the first shot (z207) is unreliable and that there is good testimonial/video/photographic evidence supporting a later first shot.
If you want to accept a first shot at z207 that's your prerogative.

Also, either you, and/or others on this thread keep bringing up Z190 as the first  shot..

At no point have I advocated a first shot at z190, in fact I've argued against specifically that, which you'd know if you'd bothered to read through the thread. Also I'm not aware of any other forum member who has contributed to this thread who has openly advocated at first shot at z190.
It's surely basic manners to read through something you are going to critique or maybe I'm just old-fashioned.

[John Tonkovich]

Z190 was the frame selected for the second shot by the HSCA, based mostly on acoustic analysis partnered with a "pronounced" blur episode "during frames 189-197, a time when other visual evidence suggests that President Kennedy was first shot". Among the "other visual evidence" was their belief that, as he was going behind the sign, Kennedy hand's suddenly stopped moving and he turned his head sharply towards his wife.

In 2007, Vincent Bugliosi surprised many LNers by accepting the HSCA arguments when his book placed the second shot at Z190. Andrew Mason, Forum member and LNer who doesn't accept the SBT, has this original shot sequence:

• Mid-Z190s: JFK neck transit, with bullet missing Connally's back and left side to end up in the Governor's left thigh.
• Z270-Z275: Barely missing Kennedy's head, the bullet strikes Connally's back.
• Z312/313: Head shot.

Some of his frame numbers have changed over the years. Link to his paper: Link.

Mr Organ: you say a "z190 second shot"  .
I think you mean " first".

[John Tonkovich]

The HSCA had the first shot occurring earlier (it missed and the trigger pull was a few frames before):

    "The first reaction by any of the limousine occupants to a
     severe external stimulus begins to occur in the vicinity of
     Zapruder frames 162-167."

The reason I mentioned the HSCA's second shot timing is that they may have been the primary, and possibly original, source of a wounding shot occurring at Z190. Others--like Andrew Mason and Pat Speer--have since placed the first shot in the Z190s-or-so, largely based on their assessment of witness statements.

Ok. Thanks for the clarification,  Mr Organ.

Odd, though, that the FBI and SS had Mr West plot in three hits, at z207, z312, and z350, on the first two surveys he completed. Those agencies provided those locations. Guess Mr Specter knew better.

[Allan Fritzke]

Some serious digressing here Allan, most of which I agree with but it doesn't concern us here. The point of this thread is to establish when the first of three assumed shots from the TSBD hit JFK. Some researchers believe the first shot missed and occurred before the Presidential limo passed behind the Stemmons sign (some have it before the limo appears in Zapruder - before z133). The arguments presented in this thread have, I believe, demonstrated that the first shot hit JFK and his reaction is clearly seen in the Z-film (clenched fists towards the throat, elbows extended).

"I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist."

Part of the evidence demonstrating this shot occurred after JFK passed behind the Stemmons sign is how JFK's right hand snaps shut in a fraction of a second, which I believe is a reflexive reaction to being shot. As a reflex reaction it is possible to find out how quickly after the initial stimulus (being shot) this reaction occurs and convert this time into z-frames and count back from the initial reaction to give a good estimate of when the initial stimulus occurred (ie: when JFK was hit by the first shot). In the clip posted it is possible to see his hand beginning to snap shut in z225 which pinpoints the moment of initial reaction. It is possible to estimate the speed this reaction would occur after the initial stimulus (a normal touch reaction is thought to be around 150 milliseconds but a reflex reaction is somewhat quicker. I would say 100 milliseconds is a fair estimate). If it is assumed that the stimulus occurs 100 milliseconds before the reaction and, as each Z-frame represents approximately 55 milliseconds it would be expected that the first shot hit JFK 2-3 Z-frames before the initial reaction. That is to say 2-3 Z-frames before z225 (z222/z223)

The clip below shows JFK's hand snapping shut. It must be remembered that it's in slo-mo and doesn't express the rapid nature of the hand-snap:

I can see your point.  To me,  I don't necessarily see a fist clenching.  Camera angle may dictate hand disappearing from view.  The left hand is reacting at the exact same time - a reflex movement.  One can see before the sign that the President is giving a last crowd wave as the right hand is still up and he has no distress.  The crowd is thinning and it appears his hand moves down from his upstretched position somewhere behind the sign.  Certainly I think your analysis is correct and it is a reflex action rather than a premeditated one and is much quicker than that of his wife - reflex versus reaction.

So compare his reaction time to that of Jacqueline who appears to be looking at him the whole time.  She has a reaction time of about 8 frames.  That is a reactive motion to an external stimulus.  Use that reaction time to make further analysis.   At frame Z338  she appears to have had quite enough stimulus and gets ready to leave the crime scene.  Given the logic that 8 frames or half a second is about an adequate normal human response time and count from there backwards.    She is looking right at the President the whole time and appears to be studying him after the first shot so she is on heightened awareness.  A massive blow with fragments flying all over right in front of her face at Z313 should lead to a major reaction at Z321 (1/2 a second).     My feeling is that reaction time of 1/2 a second is a realistic estimate to external stimulus by her or any human.   Logic should say that a reaction by her at Z338 would coincide with a messy kill/headshot coming in at Z330 (1/2 a second earlier) with glass shards catching the sun light over a ducked Connally and SS agent and JFK's head a red ball.   In my opinion, 2 seconds is an unrealistic reaction time to a supposed shot that totally removed the President's head and she misses it for 1 1/2 seconds even though she is looking right at him.  Just compare her initial reaction at the first shot that strikes him to the despair reaction at Z338.  No doubt she thought the next bullet was for her!

The facts are we know the car and body was whisked away in an un-examined state from the crime scene and that a windshield was changed and a controlled autopsy was done out of state - those facts are undisputed.

[Dan O'meara]

I can see your point.  To me,  I don't necessarily see a fist clenching.  Camera angle may dictate hand disappearing from view.  The left hand is reacting at the exact same time - a reflex movement.  One can see before the sign that the President is giving a last crowd wave as the right hand is still up and he has no distress.  The crowd is thinning and it appears his hand moves down from his upstretched position somewhere behind the sign.  Certainly I think your analysis is correct and it is a reflex action rather than a premeditated one and is much quicker than that of his wife - reflex versus reaction.

So compare his reaction time to that of Jacqueline who appears to be looking at him the whole time.  She has a reaction time of about 8 frames.  That is a reactive motion to an external stimulus.  Use that reaction time to make further analysis.   At frame Z338  she appears to have had quite enough stimulus and gets ready to leave the crime scene.  Given the logic that 8 frames or half a second is about an adequate normal human response time and count from there backwards.    She is looking right at the President the whole time and appears to be studying him after the first shot so she is on heightened awareness.  A massive blow with fragments flying all over right in front of her face at Z313 should lead to a major reaction at Z321 (1/2 a second).     My feeling is that reaction time of 1/2 a second is a realistic estimate to external stimulus by her or any human.   Logic should say that a reaction by her at Z338 would coincide with a messy kill/headshot coming in at Z330 (1/2 a second earlier) with glass shards catching the sun light over a ducked Connally and SS agent and JFK's head a red ball.   In my opinion, 2 seconds is an unrealistic reaction time to a supposed shot that totally removed the President's head and she misses it for 1 1/2 seconds even though she is looking right at him.  Just compare her initial reaction at the first shot that strikes him to the despair reaction at Z338.  No doubt she thought the next bullet was for her!

The facts are we know the car and body was whisked away in an un-examined state from the crime scene and that a windshield was changed and a controlled autopsy was done out of state - those facts are undisputed.

Was thinking about the third shot. I was speculating that this shot hit the corner of a concrete slab surrounding a manhole cover on the south side of Elm Street, as reported by Dallas officer J W Foster:

Mr. BALL - What did you do after that?
Mr. FOSTER - I moved to -down the roadway there, down to see if I could find where any of he shots hit.
Mr. BALL - Find anything?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes, sir. Found where one shot had hit the turf there at the location.
Mr. BALL - Hit the turf?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL - Did you see any marks on the street in anyplace?
Mr. FOSTER - No, a manhole cover. It was hit. they caught the manhole cover right on the corner and -
Mr. BALL - You saw a mark on the manhole cover did you?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes sir.
Mr. BALL - I show you a picture here of a concrete slab. or manhole cover. Do you recognize that picture?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL - Does the picture show - tell me what it shows there.
Mr. FOSTER - This looks like the corner here where it penetrated the turf right here [indicating].
Mr. BALL - See any mark on the manhole cover?
Mr. FOSTER - No, sir; I don't. not on the - well, it is on the turf, on the concrete, right in the corner.

After hitting the concrete the bullet fragments, part of which goes on to hit the curb near Tague causing the injury to his face. The problem with this scenario is that the assumed sniper has hit JFK with the first shot in the back (I assume this was meant to be a head-shot). The next shot is the head-shot which indicates that the sniper is getting his eye in. But then the third shot seems to be pulled high. Why a third shot? The sniper must have seen JFK's head explode. And why did it miss if he has two out of two already. Then I read what you posted about Jackie Kennedy and I had an idea.
This is speculation. It's based on asking what has changed between shot two and shot three to make the sniper miss. The sniper is just about to take the third shot and suddenly Clint Hill is in his sights! Shooting a member of the SS is not in the plan. The shot is pulled high, fragments on the concrete of the manhole cover, a piece of which goes on to cause the injury to Tague.
Obviously total speculation but something I find interesting and worth pursuing.



This pic apparently shows an unidentified man (SS agent??) reaching for possible bullet fragment near manhole.




Possible bullet strike on concrete of manhole cover in the position described by Foster in his testimony.

[Dan O'meara]

Some serious digressing here Allan, most of which I agree with but it doesn't concern us here. The point of this thread is to establish when the first of three assumed shots from the TSBD hit JFK. Some researchers believe the first shot missed and occurred before the Presidential limo passed behind the Stemmons sign (some have it before the limo appears in Zapruder - before z133). The arguments presented in this thread have, I believe, demonstrated that the first shot hit JFK and his reaction is clearly seen in the Z-film (clenched fists towards the throat, elbows extended).

"I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist."

Part of the evidence demonstrating this shot occurred after JFK passed behind the Stemmons sign is how JFK's right hand snaps shut in a fraction of a second, which I believe is a reflexive reaction to being shot. As a reflex reaction it is possible to find out how quickly after the initial stimulus (being shot) this reaction occurs and convert this time into z-frames and count back from the initial reaction to give a good estimate of when the initial stimulus occurred (ie: when JFK was hit by the first shot). In the clip posted it is possible to see his hand beginning to snap shut in z225 which pinpoints the moment of initial reaction. It is possible to estimate the speed this reaction would occur after the initial stimulus (a normal touch reaction is thought to be around 150 milliseconds but a reflex reaction is somewhat quicker. I would say 100 milliseconds is a fair estimate). If it is assumed that the stimulus occurs 100 milliseconds before the reaction and, as each Z-frame represents approximately 55 milliseconds it would be expected that the first shot hit JFK 2-3 Z-frames before the initial reaction. That is to say 2-3 Z-frames before z225 (z222/z223)

The clip below shows JFK's hand snapping shut. It must be remembered that it's in slo-mo and doesn't express the rapid nature of the hand-snap:

In this previous post I've argued that the impact of the first shot should be expected in either z222 or z223. I believe it is possible to pinpoint the exact moment of impact to z223 based on an observation from fellow forum member Brian Roselle. In the pic below the detail in question is the small white blob seen above the edge of the door. This small white blob is the cuff of JBC's shirt at his right wrist.


The clip below begins at z222, the shirt cuff is seen just above the top edge of the limo door. By the very next frame (55milliseconds later) it has disappeared downwards, a very rapid movement. Up to this point JBC has been looking to his right, completely calm and composed. He's like this before he goes behind the Stemmons sign and is exactly the same when he first emerges from behind it. Suddenly he bursts into a flurry of activity. As the clip rolls a few things happen simultaneously - his hand is suddenly forced downwards then 'rebounds' upwards to face level. His right shoulder is pulled forward and downwards , rotating his body slightly, sending his left shoulder up and back. As all this happens the right side of his jacket bulges outward quite dramatically.



I believe this shows JBC's wrist being impacted by a bullet at z223. It drives his hand forcibly downwards which then rebounds upwards. The force of the impact drags his right shoulder forward and down causing his body to rotate slightly. The debris exiting his chest wound causes his jacket to bulge.
In the slightly extended clip below I would like to point out the position of JBC's wrist after all this initial activity has died down. To me it appears his wrist is at a really unnatural angle suggesting that his wrist can no longer support his hand due to the damage inflicted. It is also possible that the impact has damaged nerves causing some fingers to curl. It is possible JBC couldn't let go of his Stetson if he wanted to.