The Shot That Missed

[Dan O'meara]

I assume you have it ricocheting off various tree limbs and traffic signals in order to reach the manhole area.

No, actually I believe that the first shot was inadvertent due to interference from the conduit closest to the window. It appears to me that the shooter’s left elbow would have been very close to it when he brought the rifle up and began his aim. If his left elbow actually struck that conduit while his other finger was on the trigger, this interference and resulting sudden stop of the movement of the rifle could have caused what is termed an accidental discharge by gun safety instructors. Because he likely wouldn’t have wanted to let anyone below see the rifle ahead of time, I believe that he would have waited until the limo was below him and then been in the process of quickly bringing the rifle up into position for an intended first shot as soon as the target emerged from under the tree limbs cover. Since he likely wouldn’t have been able to physically practice this maneuver (with the rifle) ahead of time, without potentially drawing unwanted attention to himself, he likely wouldn’t have anticipated the interference from the conduit. I believe the inadvertent shot happened before the rifle was fully aimed and that the bullet simply traveled to the manhole cover area without hitting anything beforehand.

Others have theorized the interference from either tree limbs or the traffic signal as reasons for the first shot missing the limo entirely. But the evidence for those scenarios is slim. The theory I believe in explains why the shot missed (it was inadvertent and thus not fully aimed).

As I'm sure you're aware, there is not even the slightest hint of any evidence to support your belief. It is completely a matter of faith.
It makes sense (to me at least) that the assassin would want to get off a shot far earlier than my proposal of z223. I also accept that, for some reason, the assassin chose an unnecessarily cramped spot to take the shot from (he had the whole sixth floor to choose from). What you propose is not beyond the realms of possibility.
My first problem is the difference between the position of the limo in the z130's and the manhole area. Was Qswald swinging the rifle round in a big arc in order to take aim? The difference between the two positions is radical and I cannot envisage how he can be holding the rifle in such a position as to accidentally shoot so far off the mark.
Obviously, my second problem with a shot so early has been discussed elsewhere in depth.

Your theory would also work for the manhole cover strike scenario if the third shot was the one that missed. However, if that were the case, I believe that more witnesses would have described a shot after the headshot in their accounts. Most witnesses seem to believe that the headshot was the last one.

"Most witnesses" do not believe the headshot was the last shot.
Some do and some don't .

[Jack Nessan]

Here’s what FBI agent Vince Drain had to say about it in “No More Silence” by Larry Sneed:


Of course, time dims your memory a bit, but as I understand it, Oswald was sitting there looking through the scope with the target moving away at 10–12 M.P.H. It was a very easy target. He had one cartridge in the chamber ready, so he only had two more to put in to fire. The best we could tell when we reenacted it, and we went over this thing from all angles with the finest ballistics’ experts in the country, the first shot went wild which was found down close to a water outlet in the curb. The second shot hit the President in the fatty part of the neck and went through completely hitting Connally in the rib cage driving the bone ahead of it, came out, and part of it hit him in the wrist. The third shot is what caught the President in the back of the head. Now that’s the best that all the scientific people could come up with that happened.

"He had one cartridge in the chamber ready, so he only had two more to put in to fire"

Drain is stating a two shot scenario. The math is off for a three shot scenario. He states there was a total of three bullets in the gun. The last bullet in the gun was unfired and ejected by Fritz, leaving two shots total having been fired by LHO according to Drain. CE 543, which lacks the indentation from the chamber of the rifle,  was ejected prior to the first shot.

[Charles Collins]

As I'm sure you're aware, there is not even the slightest hint of any evidence to support your belief. It is completely a matter of faith.
It makes sense (to me at least) that the assassin would want to get off a shot far earlier than my proposal of z223. I also accept that, for some reason, the assassin chose an unnecessarily cramped spot to take the shot from (he had the whole sixth floor to choose from). What you propose is not beyond the realms of possibility.
My first problem is the difference between the position of the limo in the z130's and the manhole area. Was Qswald swinging the rifle round in a big arc in order to take aim? The difference between the two positions is radical and I cannot envisage how he can be holding the rifle in such a position as to accidentally shoot so far off the mark.
Obviously, my second problem with a shot so early has been discussed elsewhere in depth.

Your theory would also work for the manhole cover strike scenario if the third shot was the one that missed. However, if that were the case, I believe that more witnesses would have described a shot after the headshot in their accounts. Most witnesses seem to believe that the headshot was the last one.

My first problem is the difference between the position of the limo in the z130's and the manhole area. Was Qswald swinging the rifle round in a big arc in order to take aim? The difference between the two positions is radical and I cannot envisage how he can be holding the rifle in such a position as to accidentally shoot so far off the mark.

No, I believe that he likely wanted to have the rifle semi-aimed (or at least on his shoulder and pointed toward the vicinity of the area where the limo would emerge on the other side of the tree limbs) ahead of the time when it actually would get there. We see skeet shooters do something similar before they yell “pull” for the release of the target. And, that while in the process of trying to quickly pre-position the rifle he could have had his finger on the trigger and inadvertently fired a shot before he meant to.

I believe that there must be a good reason for that bullet to miss the entire limo. Other potential reasons include Max Holland’s theory that it hit the traffic signal, plus another possibility is that the top box on the window sill interfered with an intended early shot. If he had been sitting on the box and tracking the limo with the rifle in the period immediately before Z133, when it reached the Z133 area the top outer corner of the box was in a position to interfere and the end of the barrel might have hit the box and caused a shot to miss the limo. In this case, it would likely have hit the asphalt and disintegrated similar to Haags’ demonstration posted earlier in this thread.

[Charles Collins]

"He had one cartridge in the chamber ready, so he only had two more to put in to fire"

Drain is stating a two shot scenario. The math is off for a three shot scenario. He states there was a total of three bullets in the gun. The last bullet in the gun was unfired and ejected by Fritz, leaving two shots total having been fired by LHO according to Drain. CE 543, which lacks the indentation from the chamber of the rifle,  was ejected prior to the first shot.

That’s probably the reason (NOT) why most witnesses heard three shots.

[Dan O'meara]

That’s probably why most witnesses heard three shots (NOT).

The overwhelming majority of "ear-witnesses" heard three shots only.
That is a fact.

[Charles Collins]

The overwhelming majority of "ear-witnesses" heard three shots only.
That is a fact.

Yes, I agree. I might should have worded my sentence differently. I think I will edit it accordingly.

[Dan O'meara]

Yes, I agree. I might should have worded my sentence differently. I think I will edit it accordingly.

This raises the other problem for your scenario - the timing of the shots.
In your scenario (assuming a first shot at z133) the gap between the first shot and the headshot is 10 seconds.
There is only one witness (as far as I'm aware) that proposes such a time gap (Connally)
One witness.
Many describe a pattern where the second two shots are quite close together.
You are proposing - first shot then a gap of 5 seconds, second shot then another gap of 5 seconds to the headshot.
I can't find a single witness proposing such a thing.

[Charles Collins]

This raises the other problem for your scenario - the timing of the shots.
In your scenario (assuming a first shot at z133) the gap between the first shot and the headshot is 10 seconds.
There is only one witness (as far as I'm aware) that proposes such a time gap (Connally)
One witness.
Many describe a pattern where the second two shots are quite close together.
You are proposing - first shot then a gap of 5 seconds, second shot then another gap of 5 seconds to the headshot.
I can't find a single witness proposing such a thing.

There are quite a few witnesses who said the shots were evenly spaced. One that I recently came across and took note of (for another reason) was the radio dispatcher for the Sheriff’s office named Watson. He said in his report to the Sheriff dated 11/22/63:

...about that time I heard three loud reports evenly spaced which I presumed to be rifle or shotgun blast. I looked at the time on the radio panel and it was about 40-seconds after 12:30pm...

There are other similar accounts from some of the witnesses.