The Shot That Missed

[John Iacoletti]

Did John Iacoletti really call you a "child-molester"? Surely not.

No, of course I didn't.  That's just another empty Chapman claim.  I said that I could call him a child molester -- just like he calls Oswald a "killer" -- but that doesn't make it true.

[Bill Chapman]

No, of course I didn't.  That's just another empty Chapman claim.  I said that I could call him a child molester -- just like he calls Oswald a "killer" -- but that doesn't make it true.

'I said that I could call him a child molester'

Cite that

[Brian Roselle]

Dan, I’m sorry if I didn’t address what you were concerned about earlier. Hopefully I won’t still completely miss something, but if I do it shouldn’t turn any heads.

I agree with you that there are agents in Altgens reacting to gunshot sounds.

But I think there were body motions in the early Z film comparable, if not greater in magnitude, to the agents seen in Altgens.  If Altgens could have snapped an up-the-road still picture on the presidential limo at about z160 he would have caught 5 heads turned looking around. And based on the Croft photo at that time with Connally and Jackie, one might say there could have been some facial expressions of concern at that time.

Now I could take a stab at what might be going on in Altgens, but I should reiterate that the first shot analysis method is based on a reaction time (better described as perception time) model to a surprise stimulus. It will not apply to after the first shot because a first stimulus can be a strong forewarning signal to subsequent stimuli and can radically change (lower) reaction times. So although the method would not be recommended for anything after a first shot, one might expect subsequent reaction times to become somewhat faster because of this dynamic. The early reactions highlighted in the article method match up exceedingly well to the surprise stimulus perception time distribution expected from the general population, that’s how it pegs the first shot triggered at half a second before z133.

But, just for the sake of it, if we play this out and assumed the second shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the second shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the second shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that.

At z255 I’m not sure if many of the SS agents had fully realized that that JFK and Connally were seriously shot (but Clint Hill appeared to be looking towards them and you mentioned him not reacting, and I just don’t know how to explain him to you, maybe one who is not as inclined to react?). In any case, hearing a second report about 1.8 seconds earlier than z255 and quickly after that realizing it as a gunshot might have “gotten and held” many of those agents attention at that time, looking for the source, and as seen in Altgens.  Alternately though, I would guess the attention of Jackie and Nellie was on their husbands, since from z235 to z255 it looked like there was a lot of chaos going on in the presidential limo back seats with two men having just been shot and their wives reacting to their husbands. Perhaps to be expected Kellerman and Greer looked to react a little slower than the wives did by starting their turns backwards around z252ish, but that is also pretty darn close to the time of the Altgens photo.

Net, this quick run through related to Altgens is just that, a quick take. But I don’t see anything that is really inconsistent with explaining the Zapruder frame around the time of the Altgens photo, and Altgens being primarily related to the second shot rather than the first shot that happened earlier up the road.

[Dan O'meara]

Dan, I’m sorry if I didn’t address what you were concerned about earlier. Hopefully I won’t still completely miss something, but if I do it shouldn’t turn any heads.

I agree with you that there are agents in Altgens reacting to gunshot sounds.

But I think there were body motions in the early Z film comparable, if not greater in magnitude, to the agents seen in Altgens.  If Altgens could have snapped an up-the-road still picture on the presidential limo at about z160 he would have caught 5 heads turned looking around. And based on the Croft photo at that time with Connally and Jackie, one might say there could have been some facial expressions of concern at that time.

Now I could take a stab at what might be going on in Altgens, but I should reiterate that the first shot analysis method is based on a reaction time (better described as perception time) model to a surprise stimulus. It will not apply to after the first shot because a first stimulus can be a strong forewarning signal to subsequent stimuli and can radically change (lower) reaction times. So although the method would not be recommended for anything after a first shot, one might expect subsequent reaction times to become somewhat faster because of this dynamic. The early reactions highlighted in the article method match up exceedingly well to the surprise stimulus perception time distribution expected from the general population, that’s how it pegs the first shot triggered at half a second before z133.

But, just for the sake of it, if we play this out and assumed the second shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the second shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the second shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that.

At z255 I’m not sure if many of the SS agents had fully realized that that JFK and Connally were seriously shot (but Clint Hill appeared to be looking towards them and you mentioned him not reacting, and I just don’t know how to explain him to you, maybe one who is not as inclined to react?). In any case, hearing a second report about 1.8 seconds earlier than z255 and quickly after that realizing it as a gunshot might have “gotten and held” many of those agents attention at that time, looking for the source, and as seen in Altgens.  Alternately though, I would guess the attention of Jackie and Nellie was on their husbands, since from z235 to z255 it looked like there was a lot of chaos going on in the presidential limo back seats with two men having just been shot and their wives reacting to their husbands. Perhaps to be expected Kellerman and Greer looked to react a little slower than the wives did by starting their turns backwards around z252ish, but that is also pretty darn close to the time of the Altgens photo.

Net, this quick run through related to Altgens is just that, a quick take. But I don’t see anything that is really inconsistent with explaining the Zapruder frame around the time of the Altgens photo, and Altgens being primarily related to the second shot rather than the first shot that happened earlier up the road.

Hi Brian,

I must apologise as I don't seem to have clarified what I'm driving at.
The Altgens 6 pic below, in conjunction with the Z-film, utterly refutes your notion of a first shot before z133:



I completely agree with your analysis of the gunshot reactions we are seeing in Altgens 6:

"...the [Altgens 6] shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the [Altgens 6] shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the [Altgens 6]shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that."

This seems completely reasonable to me. The three agents who are twisting round, all looking towards the TSBD, have been captured in the Altgens 6 pic reacting to the sound of a shot that occurred less than two seconds before the pic was taken.

The point you seem to be missing is that this is exactly the reaction we should expect to see for a shot before z133. Why aren't the SS agents reacting to the sound of a shot before z133 in exactly the way we see them reacting in Altgens 6 (@ z255)?

The answer to this question is obvious - there was no sound of a gunshot for them to react to before z223.
The SS agents reacted to the first shot (to assume they somehow missed the first shot is silly) and the Altgens 6 pic captures this moment. There was no shot as early as z133. The lack of reaction of the SS agents we can see in the Z-film until z207 clearly demonstrates this.


I was going to let it go at that but you made a comment in your post that I find so bizarre I just couldn't let it go:

I agree with you that there are agents in Altgens reacting to gunshot sounds.

But I think there were body motions in the early Z film comparable, if not greater in magnitude, to the agents seen in Altgens.

You are obviously aware that everyone here has instant access to the Z-film. Your claim that there were body motions "comparable, if not greater in magnitude" than the agents seen in Altgens 6 is clearly a nonsensical statement. There is absolutely nothing in the Z-film that comes even close to the reactions of the three agents seen in the Altgens 6 twisting around, all heads turned in the direction of the TSBD. The most extreme movement is John Connally's quick head turn and this is nothing compared to the contortions of the SS agents. How you can even suggest this is baffling.

[Charles Collins]

Hi Brian,

I must apologise as I don't seem to have clarified what I'm driving at.
The Altgens 6 pic below, in conjunction with the Z-film, utterly refutes your notion of a first shot before z133:



I completely agree with your analysis of the gunshot reactions we are seeing in Altgens 6:

"...the [Altgens 6] shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the [Altgens 6] shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the [Altgens 6]shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that."

This seems completely reasonable to me. The three agents who are twisting round, all looking towards the TSBD, have been captured in the Altgens 6 pic reacting to the sound of a shot that occurred less than two seconds before the pic was taken.

The point you seem to be missing is that this is exactly the reaction we should expect to see for a shot before z133. Why aren't the SS agents reacting to the sound of a shot before z133 in exactly the way we see them reacting in Altgens 6 (@ z255)?

The answer to this question is obvious - there was no sound of a gunshot for them to react to before z223.
The SS agents reacted to the first shot (to assume they somehow missed the first shot is silly) and the Altgens 6 pic captures this moment. There was no shot as early as z133. The lack of reaction of the SS agents we can see in the Z-film until z207 clearly demonstrates this.


I was going to let it go at that but you made a comment in your post that I find so bizarre I just couldn't let it go:

You are obviously aware that everyone here has instant access to the Z-film. Your claim that there were body motions "comparable, if not greater in magnitude" than the agents seen in Altgens 6 is clearly a nonsensical statement. There is absolutely nothing in the Z-film that comes even close to the reactions of the three agents seen in the Altgens 6 twisting around, all heads turned in the direction of the TSBD. The most extreme movement is John Connally's quick head turn and this is nothing compared to the contortions of the SS agents. How you can even suggest this is baffling.

Dan, how many of the witnesses said they initially thought the first one was a backfire or firecracker or something like that? I don’t know the actual count, but it was a large percentage. Do you really believe that the SS Agents were somehow immune to this phenomenon? We can clearly see one immediately looking in the vicinity of the limo’s tires. It would appear that he thought it was a tire blowout. What we cannot discern from the photographic record is what the eyes of the SS Agents are doing during the same time that the limo occupants are simultaneously turning their heads and looking around with concerned expressions like they are trying to figure out what that loud noise they just heard was. The SS Agents were likely looking for visual signs of the source or results of the loud noise. They can do this with just movements of their eyes and small movements of their heads. I know what their reports say about “immediately” doing this or that. But I believe that none of them were likely to come out and explicitly say that they thought the first noise was something other than a gunshot, and that that is why they didn’t react immediately after hearing it. Admitting something like that on their reports would tend to make them look incompetent and lackadaisical. I believe that they reported actions that would tend to make them look good, and stuck to their stories. How could they have anticipated that the Zapruder film would show that their reports were inaccurate?

[Brian Roselle]

Some agents early on in the film apparently did not react (even Hill seems to not react even up to past the second shot) but some did like Hickey.  I have heard some others suggest Ready and Bennett may have had some early reactions, but this was not used in the analysis.

Some reasons for reacting or not reacting were alluded to earlier. I have the same thoughts on this as Charles, but he states it better than I could.

On a side note, you have mentioned startle reactions before, but because these are usually very small and quick, they are not a good source to try and see happening in individuals on film. I think I calculated that Zapruder’s hand would have only jumped about 1/16 to 1/32 of an inch to cause the purported jiggles in his film. His arms did not go flying up into the air.
I mention this because although seeing a startle reaction in an individual on a film at a distance may be nearly impossible, one may be able to see the effect on the film stability of the cameraman while filming.

Saying that there is no way the reaction time analysis theory can be right may be jumping the gun (no pun intended). One way to check a theory is to see if it can make predictions. This may be difficult in the JFK case, but I think there might be a possibility. The analysis of an early shot half a second before z133 could make a prediction related to camera shake of the person filming closest to the snipers nest. It would make the following IF/THEN hypothesis.  IF a first shot from the TSBD was fired at about ½ second before z133,  THEN given the first surprise/unexpected loud discharge in close proximity to Elsie Dorman at that time it likely would have had some startling effect on her and her filming, as she was the closest person to the sniper nest actively filming at that time.
This Hypothesis was tested via film synchronization:
Dorman’s camera motions while the limo was going by her on Elm are a little unsteady since she wasn’t using the viewfinder at that time but was holding the camera beside her head, but the filming does appear to contain larger startle reactions consistent with a loud rifle report happening at the predicted timing for the first shot (and even the second shot and reduced some by the time of the third shot). You may have to hit play a couple of time for this video to fully load and play.
https://sites.google.com/view/dorman-zapruder-sync-on-elm-st/home

This is one prediction the analysis made that appears to be supported by independent filming.

There are some people that support this analysis, but you clearly disagree. I am fine with that, It’s even good. Getting many people digging into evaluating the event may turn up new things. I encourage your continued exploration of your theories; there are likely still some things to uncover about the events.

[Charles Collins]

Some agents early on in the film apparently did not react (even Hill seems to not react even up to past the second shot) but some did like Hickey.  I have heard some others suggest Ready and Bennett may have had some early reactions, but this was not used in the analysis.

Some reasons for reacting or not reacting were alluded to earlier. I have the same thoughts on this as Charles, but he states it better than I could.

On a side note, you have mentioned startle reactions before, but because these are usually very small and quick, they are not a good source to try and see happening in individuals on film. I think I calculated that Zapruder’s hand would have only jumped about 1/16 to 1/32 of an inch to cause the purported jiggles in his film. His arms did not go flying up into the air.
I mention this because although seeing a startle reaction in an individual on a film at a distance may be nearly impossible, one may be able to see the effect on the film stability of the cameraman while filming.

Saying that there is no way the reaction time analysis theory can be right may be jumping the gun (no pun intended). One way to check a theory is to see if it can make predictions. This may be difficult in the JFK case, but I think there might be a possibility. The analysis of an early shot half a second before z133 could make a prediction related to camera shake of the person filming closest to the snipers nest. It would make the following IF/THEN hypothesis.  IF a first shot from the TSBD was fired at about ½ second before z133,  THEN given the first surprise/unexpected loud discharge in close proximity to Elsie Dorman at that time it likely would have had some startling effect on her and her filming, as she was the closest person to the sniper nest actively filming at that time.
This Hypothesis was tested via film synchronization:
Dorman’s camera motions while the limo was going by her on Elm are a little unsteady since she wasn’t using the viewfinder at that time but was holding the camera beside her head, but the filming does appear to contain larger startle reactions consistent with a loud rifle report happening at the predicted timing for the first shot (and even the second shot and reduced some by the time of the third shot). You may have to hit play a couple of time for this video to fully load and play.
https://sites.google.com/view/dorman-zapruder-sync-on-elm-st/home

This is one prediction the analysis made that appears to be supported by independent filming.

There are some people that support this analysis, but you clearly disagree. I am fine with that, It’s even good. Getting many people digging into evaluating the event may turn up new things. I encourage your continued exploration of your theories; there are likely still some things to uncover about the events.

Thanks for the link to the three films synchronization. I knew about the stoppage of the Dorman film at the same time of the proposed time of the first shot. But I somehow wasn’t aware that a similar stoppage existed at the same time as the proposed second shot.

One other film camera that was running during the proposed time of the first shot was the Hughes camera. And it has a very unusual stoppage of 6-frames right at that time. That is only about 1/3 of one second, and I believe that it could very well be a startle reaction to the sound of the first shot.

[Dan O'meara]

Charles, you know my stance on this particular issue as I know yours. It's clear from his last post that Brian has absolutely no intention of dealing with the issues I'm raising and, to be honest, he's right not to as it will reveal the kind of hole he's dug for himself with this. His big problem is presenting his model for the first/missed shot with all the trappings of scientific research. This makes him beholden to things like Logic, Rational Thought and, even, Common Sense.

Dan, how many of the witnesses said they initially thought the first one was a backfire or firecracker or something like that? I don’t know the actual count, but it was a large percentage. Do you really believe that the SS Agents were somehow immune to this phenomenon?

I don't know the actual percentage of those who described their perception of the first/missed shot as being something other than a shot (backfire, firecracker etc.) but I agree it's large. I'd go as far to say it's really large. Of course the SS agents are not immune to such a thing and nowhere have I ever said they are so there's no need to ask "Do you really believe..." as if I had made such a ridiculous statement at some time in the past. How can you be immune to perceiving something? It's a really silly thing to say. Here are a few of the Agents describing their initial perception of the first shot:

Youngblood -  'It could have been a firecracker, a bomb, or a shot,' Youngblood, 39, said in an interview. 'I recognized it as an abnormal sound                             and realized some action had to be taken'
Greer-          The President’s automobile was almost past this building and I was looking at the overpass that we were about to pass
                     under in case someone was on top of it, when I heard what I thought was the backfire of a motorcycle

Hill -              On the left hand side was a grass area with a few people scattered along it observing the motorcade passing, and I was
                     visually scanning these people when I heard a noise similar to a firecracker.

Ready -          I heard what sounded like firecrackers…

Hickey -         I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear.

I'm sure the point you would like to make is that, if they didn't recognise the first shot as a shot they might not have reacted to it. This would explain the radical reactions of some of the Agents we see in Altgens 6 but why there was absolutely no recognisable reaction to the sound of a gunshot earlier in the Z-film. This, however, is not the case.
In Altgens 6 we see Agents Landis, Ready and Hickey looking over their right shoulders towards the TSBD, presumably in response to the sound of gunfire:


Landis - "I heard what sounded like the report of a high-powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder...", "My first glance was at the President, as I was practically looking in his direction anyway...", "I immediately returned my gaze, over my right shoulder."

Ready - "I heard what appeared to be fire crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location."

Hickey - "I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear. I stood partially up and turned to the rear to see if I could observe anything. "

Each agent describes their immediate reactions to hearing the first shot, turning to look over their right shoulders looking towards where they felt the sound came from. This is exactly what we see in Altgens 6. Each of them is describing their reactions to the first shot. Even when they thought the sound might be a firecracker they still reacted to it.

We can clearly see one [Agent Hickey] immediately looking in the vicinity of the limo’s tires. It would appear that he thought it was a tire blowout.

Here we come to Hickey's look over the side of the follow-up car. Brian believes this move is so unusual it somehow indicates Hickey is reacting to the sound of gunfire. Where does he imagine the gunfire is coming from? Underneath the follow-up car? And you are suggesting Hickey thought it was a tire blowout. Let's have a closer look at Hickey's move:



In the Gif above we see Hickey look over the side of the limo. He then looks into the crowd to his left then turns straight ahead. That's it. If it was a blowout he would hardly look into the crowd then resume his position looking straight ahead. The idea that he is reacting to the sound of a gunshot is bizarre. What part of his actions gives this indication. There is nothing. No urgency in his movements and he resumes his original position. This is nothing compared to the barely perceptible head movement of Jackie Kennedy which is being heralded as a sure indicator of an early missed shot. 

What we cannot discern from the photographic record is what the eyes of the SS Agents are doing during the same time that the limo occupants are simultaneously turning their heads and looking around with concerned expressions like they are trying to figure out what that loud noise they just heard was. The SS Agents were likely looking for visual signs of the source or results of the loud noise. They can do this with just movements of their eyes and small movements of their heads.

This is just fantasy. You are fantasising that the limo occupants are "trying to figure out what that loud noise they just heard was."
This is never a good sign when trying to argue for a particular model.

I know what their reports say about “immediately” doing this or that. But I believe that none of them were likely to come out and explicitly say that they thought the first noise was something other than a gunshot, and that that is why they didn’t react immediately after hearing it. Admitting something like that on their reports would tend to make them look incompetent and lackadaisical. I believe that they reported actions that would tend to make them look good, and stuck to their stories. How could they have anticipated that the Zapruder film would show that their reports were inaccurate?

And here we come to the crunch. Anyone who upsets your model is lying. All the SS agents got together and, for some reason void of logic, decided to lie in order to explain why they all took over 7 seconds to react to the first shot!
Really?
Once we get to this level of debate there seems little point in continuing.