I understand that the twofer was essentially a stationary target (no panning necessary) for a few moments, due to the 3-degree downslope along Elm. Don't forget; Oswald had papered 48 out 50 in rapid-fire marine training at a much greater distance.
Close but not quite. Last year I wrote an article on how to calculate the angular speed of the target, as seen from any sniper position. A link to this post is shown below:
How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target as Seen from any Hypothetical Sniper Position.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.0.htmlA link to a summary of the angular velocities is shown below:
https://ibb.co/jR68G6jThe overall angular velocity for Oswald’s three shots were:
First shot at z-153,
4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot at z-222,
1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot at z-312,
0.6 degrees per second.
So, if anything under 2 degrees per second is considered “essentially a stationary target” then, yes, the second and third shots were at essentially stationary targets.
By the way, a hypothetical shot at z-312, from either the Grassy Knoll, either from the two “Badgeman” or “Gunsmoke” locations result in an angular speed of the target of 6.2 and 5.1 degrees per second, even more difficult that the 4.8 degrees per sec. first shot from Oswald, which caused him to miss not just JFK but the entire limousine.
And as I mentioned before, the iron sights of the Carcano, by sheer chance, provide almost the perfect lead for the moving target at the speed of the limousine at those angles, within two inches for both the second and third shot. A very unfortunate fluke.
Additionally, I wonder if Oswald had actually aimed 'center-mass' for the z222 twofer, because the entry at the neck/back junction was just 2" off center horizontally, and practically dead-center vertically.
Pure speculation on your part. But, pretty good speculation. I think you may be right. He might have been aiming at the center mass target, just as he was taught in the Marines, to maximize the chances of at least wounding the target. In combat, a serious wound is about as good as a kill. In some ways better, requiring other soldiers to withdraw from the battle temporarily to move the wounded soldier away from the front line.
Engaging in pure speculation on my part, I think it is possible that:
First shot: Oswald unwisely fired the first very difficult shot, with the target having way too high an angular velocity, just before JFK disappeared behind the tree for a couple of seconds, from z-166 to z-206. And missed the limousine. This unwise first shot may have been brought on by the fear that if he waits until after the tree, the standing secret service agents in the follow up car, following right behind, might block any shot. As it turned out, they didn’t. But this would be hard to tell just from eyeballing the scene from the sixth-floor window.
Second shot: Totally rattled by that bad first shot, Oswald may have just been going for some sort of wound, maximized his odds of doing so by just shooting at the center of the visible target, similar in size and shape to the targets he practiced shooing at with the Marines at 200, 300 and 500 yards, and got a hit very near the center, right at the base of the neck upper torso area.
Third shot: Calmed down a bit after getting a hit, and with the angular speed of the target slowing down a great deal further, and took an extra second to aim at the center of the head, where his shot was again pretty accurate.
Certainly, the locations of the wounds do suggest this scenario better than any other.
But it is also possible he was just aiming at the center of the head the whole time. The 1.9 degrees per second might have been enough to throw him off some causing a miss of about 8 inches, which unfortunately for JFK, Oswald missed low, instead of missing high or left or right, resulting in a serious wound to the lower neck.
