In the elections since Roe v Wade was overturned in the summer of 2020, the polls keep saying that the Republicans will do well. But in the real elections, the November 2022 elections and the other special elections, the Republicans do much worse than the polls said they would.
The polls keep saying that Trump is even or even a little ahead of Biden. But I expect the same pattern to continue. Trump will do significantly worse than the polls indicate.
Trump's best chance of victory is not to win the popular vote. Nor is it to lose the popular vote but win in the Electoral College. Trump's best chance of victory is to overturn the election after November 5, 2024. Through getting local officials to throw out votes wholesale, maybe all votes from certain counties, getting state legislatures to overturn the vote or getting congress to overturn the vote. I think this time there will be less emphasis of using the courts, which got them nowhere last time despite a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court. And no massive assault on Congress on January 6 since they need surprise.
Also, voter suppression and intimidation will be used.
In the meantime, the MAGA motto should be: In Land-Line-Phone-Polls we trust.