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Author Topic: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.  (Read 8286 times)

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2021, 03:48:57 PM »
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Terms like "large" "big" "small" are all subjective. Therefore, my definition of a "large" conspiracy isn't necessarily the same as yours.

A defense that can be made for any Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy Theory. All of them will claim, when pressed, that they are really not that large. None of them provide an estimate of how many people were involved in the conspiracy. I don’t know of any JFK conspiracy book or movie that does so. Any more than I know of any such book on the Stolen 2020 Election, or the U. S. Government run 9/11 attack or the Apollo Moon Landing Hoax conspiracy theories.

I would just like there to be a book that really grabs people, a best seller, on the JFK assassination, that lists all the sub tasks the author thinks were done, and the number of people required to do so. You will never see such a book. Large conspiracies grab the imagination. That is why they have been so successful over the centuries. But the author isn’t going to provide the details that show how implausible it is. Hence, there will be references to the CIA being involved, the FBI being involved. No one could alert the authorities because the police and the press were all involved. And the conspiracy had a large goal, to start a war. Naturally, a book on all this is not going to come up with an estimate of the number of people involved in all this. It would involve too many people to be plausible.

How many people were involved with Iran-Contra? Was that a "Large Enduring Conspiracy"?

No. How many years was this conspiracy kept hidden? 50 years? 40 years? No. It fails to meet the criteria because, while it may have been Large and Secret, the secret did not endure for long. This is a classic example of why Large-Secret-Enduring conspiracies do not exist. With too many people involved the secret is bound to be exposed, sooner rather than later.

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2021, 03:48:57 PM »


Offline Jon Banks

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #33 on: November 18, 2021, 05:24:28 PM »
A defense that can be made for any Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy Theory. All of them will claim, when pressed, that they are really not that large. None of them provide an estimate of how many people were involved in the conspiracy. I don’t know of any JFK conspiracy book or movie that does so. Any more than I know of any such book on the Stolen 2020 Election, or the U. S. Government run 9/11 attack or the Apollo Moon Landing Hoax conspiracy theories.

The best JFK assassination books I've read are the ones that don't propose any theory at all (ie "Accessories After The Fact" by Sylvia Meagher). It's possible to be skeptical of the Warren Report and take apart the LN narrative without proposing an alternative theory of who really killed JFK.

It's not possible at this point to know "Who did it" but there seems to be enough holes in the official narrative that we can conclude that the case remains unsolved.

Earlier in the thread I proposed a theory of "what might've happened" but I'd be lying if I said, "I know what really happened". All I said was that I think a minimum of ten people would need to be involved and that not everyone would agree that ten people is a "large conspiracy".

I also noted that the conspiracy and cover-ups are two different categories involving two or more different groups of people with different, and sometimes conflicting motives.

For example, if the intention of blaming a "Communist" who had lived in the USSR for JFK's murder was to provoke a war between the US and Cuba/Soviets, that conflicted with Lyndon Johnson's desire to avoid a military confrontation with the Soviets. So I can see a scenario where Johnson's reaction might've conflicted with the motives of JFK's potential assassins.

If the Mob played a role in a plot against Kennedy, the CIA's motive for a cover-up would be to hide their relationships with Mobsters that were occurring in the early-60s while they were trying to kill Castro. 

Those are just two examples to show how different institutions could have different reasons for silence or cover-ups.

I'm honest enough to admit that I don't know what really happened and am always willing to listen to new information. 


I would just like there to be a book that really grabs people, a best seller, on the JFK assassination, that lists all the sub tasks the author thinks were done, and the number of people required to do so. You will never see such a book. Large conspiracies grab the imagination. That is why they have been so successful over the centuries. But the author isn’t going to provide the details that show how implausible it is. Hence, there will be references to the CIA being involved, the FBI being involved. No one could alert the authorities because the police and the press were all involved. And the conspiracy had a large goal, to start a war. Naturally, a book on all this is not going to come up with an estimate of the number of people involved in all this. It would involve too many people to be plausible.

Who has the power to investigate the CIA, or FBI, or Dallas PD? Usually law enforcement and intelligence institutions 'investigate themselves' and almost always, those institutions conclude that they 'did nothing wrong' when they investigate themselves.

Yes, there were attempts by Congress to investigate the CIA and FBI in the 1970s and we learned a great deal about some awful things that those agencies had done but Congress only grazed the surface because the CIA and FBI controlled the information that was shown to Congress.

Another obstacle is the fact that people within certain institutions are discouraged from becoming Whistleblowers. In recent years, several national security Whistleblowers have been prosecuted, not celebrated as heroes:

Chelsea Manning exposed US war crimes in Iraq.
Daniel Hale exposed war crimes in the Drone Assassination program.
Reality Winner exposed Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

All three were sent to prison for unauthorized disclosure of national security secrets.

Edward Snowden would've been prosecuted if he stayed in the US. Daniel Ellsberg was prosecuted but he won his case. However, he's the exception, not the rule for national security Whistleblowers. 

Against those odds, why do you expect that people in the know inside those institutions would come forward to expose corruption or actual crimes?

Doing so risks one's career, freedom, and in some cases, their life. A few might take the risk but most won't.

The national Press is different from the government. If you report on certain subjects that the political or national security establishment doesn't want to discuss, you simply won't be published. There are a number of examples of reporters who were demoted or fired for covering topics that they were discouraged from reporting on.

Gary Webb had his life and career ruined after his reporting on the CIA's involvement with the cocaine trade.



No. How many years was this conspiracy kept hidden? 50 years? 40 years? No. It fails to meet the criteria because, while it may have been Large and Secret, the secret did not endure for long. This is a classic example of why Large-Secret-Enduring conspiracies do not exist. With too many people involved the secret is bound to be exposed, sooner rather than later.

Iran-Contra was exposed accidentally like Watergate. In both cases, we still don't know all the details of what happened as there was some stone-walling by intelligence agencies and enduring cover-ups in those examples still continue. 


On a side note, 55 years later it has been all but concluded that the FBI and NYPD manipulated evidence and covered-up details about the 1965 Malcolm X assassination.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/17/nyregion/malcolm-x-killing-exonerated.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Conspiracies happen. Cover-ups happen. The remaining question in the Malcolm X case is "Why did they do it?"

Why didn't they want the real killers caught?
« Last Edit: November 18, 2021, 05:32:39 PM by Jon Banks »

Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #34 on: November 20, 2021, 02:37:39 AM »

The best JFK assassination books I've read are the ones that don't propose any theory at all (ie "Accessories After The Fact" by Sylvia Meagher). It's possible to be skeptical of the Warren Report and take apart the LN narrative without proposing an alternative theory of who really killed JFK.

Am I out of line to describe JFK CTers as Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy Theories? The vast majority of JFK CTers certainly are.

What is the biggest influence of CT opinion? The movie JFK.


Let’s take a look at the dialog by “X” (the fore-runner of “Q”, in the popular imagination) at around 1:30:

 . . . It is the best indication of a massive plot in Dallas. . . .

This whole dialog is not about a small conspiracy, but a massive one. This is because massive conspiracy theories are what seizes the imagination. That is why conspiracy theories are so persuasive to the masses.

But even the “good quality” books that you mention, which are not read by ten per cent of the CTers, don’t spell out what the conspirators accomplished, what evidence was faked. Nor provide a reasonable estimate on the number of conspirators needed to do this. The only reference to the size of the conspiracy is “Massive” in the movies and books about it. At least the movies and books that appeal to the masses.

. . .

Who has the power to investigate the CIA, or FBI, or Dallas PD? Usually law enforcement and intelligence institutions 'investigate themselves' and almost always, those institutions conclude that they 'did nothing wrong' when they investigate themselves.

Yes, there were attempts by Congress to investigate the CIA and FBI in the 1970s and we learned a great deal about some awful things that those agencies had done but Congress only grazed the surface because the CIA and FBI controlled the information that was shown to Congress.

Another obstacle is the fact that people within certain institutions are discouraged from becoming Whistleblowers. In recent years, several national security Whistleblowers have been prosecuted, not celebrated as heroes:

Chelsea Manning exposed US war crimes in Iraq.
Daniel Hale exposed war crimes in the Drone Assassination program.
Reality Winner exposed Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

All three were sent to prison for unauthorized disclosure of national security secrets.

Edward Snowden would've been prosecuted if he stayed in the US. Daniel Ellsberg was prosecuted but he won his case. However, he's the exception, not the rule for national security Whistleblowers. 

Against those odds, why do you expect that people in the know inside those institutions would come forward to expose corruption or actual crimes?

Against what odds? I thought this was only a Small-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy, as you claim. Against such a small conspiracy, there shouldn’t be too much danger in approaching the Secret Service or the Dallas Police with the information about when and where the assassination attempt was to take place.

I think you are trying to argue it both ways. The conspiracy was too large to make it safe to inform on it. But we should still think of this as only a small conspiracy of only about ten people.


. . .
Iran-Contra was exposed accidentally like Watergate. In both cases, we still don't know all the details of what happened as there was some stone-walling by intelligence agencies and enduring cover-ups in those examples still continue. 

Which is exactly what one would expect to happen to a Large-Secret Conspiracy. And may happen to a Small-Secret Conspiracy. “Accidents” tend to happen when too many people are involved.

A better example, if you can come up with one, on how a Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy can work, is to come up with one that held its secret for twenty years or so, and then fell apart. If it can keep its secrets for twenty years, maybe another could keep its secrets for fifty years or more. Coming up with examples that fell apart within a year or two does not help you make your case. Which is why skeptics have always been skeptical of Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracies. When they are attempted, they fall apart.


On a side note, 55 years later it has been all but concluded that the FBI and NYPD manipulated evidence and covered-up details about the 1965 Malcolm X assassination.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/17/nyregion/malcolm-x-killing-exonerated.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Conspiracies happen. Cover-ups happen. The remaining question in the Malcolm X case is "Why did they do it?"

Why didn't they want the real killers caught?

I don’t think there has ever been much mystery about who brought about the death of Malcolm X. Elijah Muhammad wanted him dead.

But this is the best example of a Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy? Elijah Muhammad was suspected of being behind it right from the get go. You may have other sources claim that it was the government, that it was the police. But I don’t believe them.

Where is the evidence that Thomas Hagan was not one of the shooters?


Basically, what I want is a Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy, that kept its secret for twenty years. Or at least ten years. And, like the Iran-Contra, we all know it happened. Not supporting one dubious CT theory (JFK, not killed by Oswald) with another dubious CT theory (Malcolm X, not killed by the Nation of Islam).
« Last Edit: November 20, 2021, 02:45:27 AM by Joe Elliott »

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #34 on: November 20, 2021, 02:37:39 AM »


Offline Jon Banks

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #35 on: November 20, 2021, 05:09:15 AM »
Am I out of line to describe JFK CTers as Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy Theories? The vast majority of JFK CTers certainly are.

Most Americans are "CT-ers."

A majority of men, women, white people, people of color, registered voters, non-registered voters, old people, young people, Democrats, Republicans and so on all believe that more than one person was involved in Kennedy’s assassination. This is one of the few questions in this polarized age on which you can even find agreement among Hillary Clinton voters (59 percent believe in a conspiracy) and Trump voters (61 percent).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-thing-in-politics-most-americans-believe-in-jfk-conspiracies/


What is the biggest influence of CT opinion?

The Zapruder film


Let’s take a look at the dialog by “X” (the fore-runner of “Q”, in the popular imagination) at around 1:30:

 . . . It is the best indication of a massive plot in Dallas. . . .

You want to debate Oliver Stone so badly it hurts.   :)

I've watched the movie 'JFK' and I will admit that I still enjoy it to this day. However, I'm aware that it's heavily dramatized and formed my own opinions on the assassination independent of the film.

You want to blame "Oliver Stone" for the endurance of JFK conspiracy theories.

The truth is quite obvious. There's a lot of weird and unresolved stuff in the JFK assassination and the combination of Oswald's murder plus the Zapruder film are why JFK conspiracy theories will continue to endure.

No one honestly learns of those things (Oswald's public murder and the Zapruder film) and doesn't at least think the official story stinks.

How many Americans under age 50 have even watched the movie 'JFK'? I suspect very few.



Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #36 on: November 21, 2021, 04:14:40 AM »

Most Americans are "CT-ers."

A majority of men, women, white people, people of color, registered voters, non-registered voters, old people, young people, Democrats, Republicans and so on all believe that more than one person was involved in Kennedy’s assassination. This is one of the few questions in this polarized age on which you can even find agreement among Hillary Clinton voters (59 percent believe in a conspiracy) and Trump voters (61 percent).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-thing-in-politics-most-americans-believe-in-jfk-conspiracies/

Skeptics have never denied the power of Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy Theories, and their power over the imagination of people. Of the ability of these theories to convince many, or even the majority, of their truth. That is why skeptics over the centuries have put a lot of effort to argue against these theories, to show how greatly improbable they are.


The Zapruder film

But the Zapruder film is not convincing, unless one has never seen film of animals being shot in the brain, which can cause their bodies to move in directions that do not indicate the source of the shot. If one first was to make a five-minute presentation showing how animals move when shot through the brain, explaining how the stronger muscles overcome the weaker muscles, how the movement is bilaterally symmetrical, which all causes terrestrial animals to bend their torso’s back and raise their forelimbs (or arms), the Zapruder film would not be convincing at all. The effect of the Zapruder film requires people to be ignorant of the neurological spasm that bullet through brains cause. Something that is not easily shown with people, simply because it is considered immoral to show a person being killed in this manner, but is easily shown with animals, where we don’t have the same kind of qualms.


You want to debate Oliver Stone so badly it hurts.   :)

I am not a good debater. I don’t want to debate anyone. The better debater wins debates regardless of the truth or lack of truth that each debater has on their side.


I've watched the movie 'JFK' and I will admit that I still enjoy it to this day. However, I'm aware that it's heavily dramatized and formed my own opinions on the assassination independent of the film.

You want to blame "Oliver Stone" for the endurance of JFK conspiracy theories.

The truth is quite obvious. There's a lot of weird and unresolved stuff in the JFK assassination and the combination of Oswald's murder plus the Zapruder film are why JFK conspiracy theories will continue to endure.

No one honestly learns of those things (Oswald's public murder and the Zapruder film) and doesn't at least think the official story stinks.

How many Americans under age 50 have even watched the movie 'JFK'? I suspect very few.

Millions of Americans have seen the movie JFK and it does have a large effect. But its not just the movie JFK. TV shows and books never argue for a small conspiracy in the JFK case.

Question:

Can you name a single movie, TV show or book that argues for a JFK Conspiracy but that argues against a large conspiracy but instead argues for a small conspiracy? And stresses that large conspiracies (that remain secret) are inherently improbable but that small conspiracies can occur (which I would agree with)?

If you can, does this movie, TV show or book prominent, has a large effect on the CTers, or is just some obscure work that most CTers are unaware of?


A movie or book could make a more logical argument if it did make such a claim in favor of a small conspiracy. But it would rob this work of its biggest potential power, the lure of a large conspiracy that has such a powerful effect of the imagination. That is why you don’t see such movies or books, because, despite the logic of this approach, people won’t find it compelling.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2021, 04:19:27 AM by Joe Elliott »

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #36 on: November 21, 2021, 04:14:40 AM »


Offline Jon Banks

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2021, 10:50:49 PM »
Skeptics have never denied the power of Large-Secret-Enduring Conspiracy Theories, and their power over the imagination of people. Of the ability of these theories to convince many, or even the majority, of their truth. That is why skeptics over the centuries have put a lot of effort to argue against these theories, to show how greatly improbable they are.

I'm a skeptic about most conspiracy theories.

There are a few CT's where I'm more open-minded and the JFK assassination is one example due to the inconclusive EVIDENCE.

It's not baseless conspiracy speculation like faked moon landings or Q-Anon...

But the Zapruder film is not convincing, unless one has never seen film of animals being shot in the brain, which can cause their bodies to move in directions that do not indicate the source of the shot. If one first was to make a five-minute presentation showing how animals move when shot through the brain, explaining how the stronger muscles overcome the weaker muscles, how the movement is bilaterally symmetrical, which all causes terrestrial animals to bend their torso’s back and raise their forelimbs (or arms), the Zapruder film would not be convincing at all. The effect of the Zapruder film requires people to be ignorant of the neurological spasm that bullet through brains cause. Something that is not easily shown with people, simply because it is considered immoral to show a person being killed in this manner, but is easily shown with animals, where we don’t have the same kind of qualms.

I'm aware of the explanations of JFK's reaction to the headshot but to most lay people, the Zapruder film suggests a shot from the front and it's totally understandable why people respond to the film that way.

My opinion that there might have been a shot from the front is based on the statements of the Parkland doctors and other witnesses about JFK's head wound. It's not based solely on the Zapruder film.


Can you name a single movie, TV show or book that argues for a JFK Conspiracy but that argues against a large conspiracy but instead argues for a small conspiracy? And stresses that large conspiracies (that remain secret) are inherently improbable but that small conspiracies can occur (which I would agree with)?

There's a few JFK CT films that suggest he was killed by the Mob, not the MIC or CIA. I think that's the premise of the 90s movie, "Ruby" and the Netflix movie, "the Irishman" also hints at mob involvement with Kennedy's assassination.

Again, I don't think everyone shares your definition of a "large conspiracy".

But large conspiracies happen too. Look up COINTELPRO for example.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2021, 10:52:24 PM by Jon Banks »

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Re: What a Conspiracy Theorist Needs to Do to be Taken Seriously.
« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2021, 10:50:49 PM »