Colors of Blue and Gold

[Martin Weidmann]

Source?

We've been hearing that Russia would "run out of missiles" since the first few weeks of the war but it hasn't happened yet.

In a conflict like this, there is uncertainty about anything, but, according to independent European media, recently Russia has reduced the number of missiles fired at Ukraine.

Russia started the war with over 12,000 tanks. Ukraine started the war with over 2000 tanks.

And still they didn't manage to take over the country.... Go figure!

12,000 Tanks: Yes Russia, Has More Armor Than America
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/12000-tanks-yes-russia-has-more-armor-america-169274

Perhaps a better word to use is "had more armour"

Ukraine, not Russia, is begging other countries to send tanks and ammo.

Of course they do.... they didn't expect to be invaded by Russia and are in need of help.

Again, Ukraine, which no longer has a domestic defense industry (due to the war) is in a much worse position than Russia. The aid from other countries creates logistical problems as Ukraine doesn't have the replacement parts to maintain and repair non-Soviet or Russian weapons. So when hardware breaks down, it gets sent to Poland for maintenance.

Again, who died and made you an expert?

The sanctions are an obstacle for Russia but it's not an obstacle that can't be overcome via trade with China or buying supplies from the Black market. Economic sanctions are a notoriously ineffective tool.

Why Sanctions Too Often Fail
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-sanctions-too-often-fail

An obstacle? They are using computer chips from old domestic appliances to keep their equipment going. That's utter desperation.

Ukraine's Resolve may be enough to keep the Russians from conquering all of Ukraine but it likely won't be enough to prevent Putin from taking 1/4 or 1/3 of their territory.

Wasn't the goal of the "special military operation" to get rid of the "Nazis" in the whole of Ukraine? Putin got away with taking Crimea and he should have left it at that. He didn't and there is no way the international community is going to stand for him stealing part of Ukraine.

There's strength in numbers and Russia has the numbers in manpower and military hardware.

And still they have achieved very little at massive costs

It's totally tragic what is happening to Ukraine but short of direct intervention by NATO, I don't see a way for them to win this war via military force.

All they need to do is kick out Russian forces and I wouldn't be surprised if the first objective of Ukraine is going to be to regain Crimea.

Btw, your admiration for the war criminal Putin is duly noted

[Jon Banks]

In a conflict like this, there is no uncertainty about anything, but, according to independent European media. recently Russia has reduced the number of missiles fired at Ukraine.

I have no idea what Russia's missile inventory is but remain skeptical that Russia is "running out of missiles". Every few weeks they unleash a barrage of missiles against Ukraine.

Russia Hits Ukraine with Biggest Missile Strike in Weeks
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/russia-hits-ukraine-with-biggest-missile-strike-in-weeks/6997984.html

Perhaps a better word to use is "had more armor"

I have no idea how many tanks Russia has lost in Ukraine so far but if they started with over 12,000 and can produce up to 1,500 per year, I'm gonna guess they still have over 10,000 tanks.

Ukraine is getting new tanks from western countries but not in the quantities that they've asked for.

Of course they do.... they didn't expect to be invaded by Russia and are in need of help.

That's an uncharacteristically naive comment from you.

President Zelensky admitted that he downplayed the likelihood that Russia would invade in 2022 because he didn't want Ukrainians to flee the country en masse before the invasion.

Ukraine has spent the last 9 years preparing for this war. NATO began arming and training Ukrainian forces some time after Putin annexed Crimea.

2015 - U.S. Army Begins Training Ukrainian Soldiers
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/06/25/417511636/u-s-army-begins-training-ukrainian-soldiers


There has been a civil war in eastern Ukraine since 2014.

War in Donbas (2014–2022)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas_(2014%E2%80%932022)


President Zelensky's advisor in 2019 predicted that they would need to win a war against Russia in order to join NATO.

Former Ukrainian presidential advisor perfectly predicted Russian invasion in 2019
https://intellinews.com/former-ukrainian-presidential-advisor-perfectly-predicted-russian-invasion-in-2019-238183/


In short, Ukraine was preparing for war long before February 2022.

Again, who died and made you an expert?

I'm no expert. I've just been following the events in Ukraine since around 2017-2018.

Everything I've posted on this topic can be found in articles on the web. This is open-source information.

An obstacle? They are using computer chips from old domestic appliances to keep their equipment going. That's utter desperation.

At the end of the day, Russia is fighting one of the poorest countries in Europe, not the US or a NATO country.

In the big picture, I don't expect Russia to be able to take all of Ukraine. They're not performing well enough to sweep across the entirety of Ukraine. 

I'm only saying that the idea that Ukraine can overwhelm and militarily defeat the world's third largest military is unlikely.

But of course, stranger things have happened. For example, the Vietnamese defeated the French, the US, and China in a span of 30 years. So I'm not writing off Ukraine entirely.

"Unlikely" doesn't mean it's impossible.

Wasn't the goal of the "special military operation" to get rid of the "Nazis" in the whole of Ukraine? Putin got away with taking Crimea and he should have left it at that. He didn't and there is no way the international community is going to stand for him stealing part of Ukraine.

I can't speak for Putin's goals in Ukraine nor can I explain why the US has cared so much about Ukraine since the early-00s.

From my POV, Ukraine looks like a pawn in a proxy-war between the West and Russia.

If the international community isn't going to put NATO boots on the ground to stop Putin, he likely won't be stopped.

If the choice is between starting WW3 in defense of Ukraine's sovereignty, or letting Putin keep 20% of Ukraine's territory, sign me up for the latter. I just don't think the Crimea is worth risking nuclear war over...

Btw, your admiration for the war criminal Putin is duly noted

What have I said that indicates I admire Putin? Please enlighten me.

[Richard Smith]

I knew when I wrote it that it would go right over your head..... and it did! 

The point I was making is a simple one. A nearly 60 80 year old tank is pretty worthless compared to modern day weapon systems, just like swords and bow and arrows stopped being useful when they started to use guns and cannons.

A T-34 tank belongs in a museum and not on a modern battleground. Get it now, or am I still going too fast for you?

A T-34 tank is still a formidable weapon.   Ask the Germans when the Russians crushed them in WWII.  The primary battle tank of the Red Army into the 1950s.  Your stupid comparison to medieval weapons just highlights your profound ignorance and bias.

[Richard Smith]

The leftists have conflicting rationales for this endless war.  On the one hand, they argue Russia is a paper tiger with poor weapons and troops.  On the other hand, they argue that if Russia is not confronted in Ukraine they will overrun "Europe" like Hitler.  How exactly are they going to accomplish that if they can't even take a few pro-Russian regions of Ukraine?  The bottom line here is that there is no real strategy or objective except a long war.   Russia is a proxy for Trump to the leftists.  The leftists desperately tried to tie the two together for years.  The right wingers want to control the money and refight the Cold War by tying Russia down in an endless conflict.

[Jon Banks]

The leftists have conflicting rationales for this endless war.  On the one hand, they argue Russia is a paper tiger with poor weapons and troops.  On the other hand, they argue that if Russia is not confronted in Ukraine they will overrun "Europe" like Hitler.  How exactly are they going to accomplish that if they can't even take a few pro-Russian regions of Ukraine? The bottom line here is that there is no real strategy or objective except a long war.   Russia is a proxy for Trump to the leftists.  The leftists desperately tried to tie the two together for years.  The right wingers want to control the money and refight the Cold War by tying Russia down in an endless conflict.

I agree that it's a huge contradiction but I hear that rhetoric from some Republican politicians too.

One minute, Russia is a paper tiger and near defeat in Ukraine. The next minute, we're being told if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, they'll invade Poland. Both things can't be true at the same time.

I agree that the 2016 election and the Trump-Russia stuff has made Democrats more paranoid about Russia than they were prior to 2016. On the flip side, I think Republicans seem paranoid about China. Good policies don't come from paranoia and hysteria.

[Martin Weidmann]

A T-34 tank is still a formidable weapon.   Ask the Germans when the Russians crushed them in WWII.  The primary battle tank of the Red Army into the 1950s.  Your stupid comparison to medieval weapons just highlights your profound ignorance and bias.

A T-34 tank is still a formidable weapon.

Try putting it against a Leopard 2 or M1A2 Abrams and you will find out very quickly how "formidable" it really is.....

Your stupid comparison to medieval weapons just highlights your profound ignorance and bias.

Oh well, I tried to explain it to you, but it seems you still haven't understood.

[Richard Smith]

I agree that it's a huge contradiction but I hear that rhetoric from some Republican politicians too.

One minute, Russia is a paper tiger and near defeat in Ukraine. The next minute, we're being told if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, they'll invade Poland. Both things can't be true at the same time.

I agree that the 2016 election and the Trump-Russia stuff has made Democrats more paranoid about Russia than they were prior to 2016. On the flip side, I think Republicans seem paranoid about China. Good policies don't come from paranoia and hysteria.

NY Times headline today:

"U.S. Arms Production Can’t Keep Up as Ukraine War Drains Supply"

[Martin Weidmann]

NY Times headline today:

"U.S. Arms Production Can’t Keep Up as Ukraine War Drains Supply"

American suppliers are selling goods (at a big profit, of course) and can't keep up with demand. What exactly are you whining about, this time?