Biden can help Zelensky, and Ukraine, by pushing for peace
Ukraine has already taken back 50 % of the land taken by Russia in the first month of invasion of 2022. Let's say they take back another 25 %, regaining a total of 75 %. And then make a peace deal.
This would be a good deal for Ukraine? Russia would have learned this lesson? No. Putin would control the narrative. We would spin it as a hard won victory. And while gaining only a small slice of Ukraine in 2022-2023(?) war may seem minor, it still puts Russia closer to taking back all of Ukraine. They would be free to try again once they rebuild their military.
Remember, Russia has a history of launching an aggressive war, suffering major defeats, and coming back for more. They tried to overrun Poland in 1920. And suffered a major defeat. Learned their lesson? No, they just came back in 1939.
Do I think Ukraine can take back all of the gains Russia made in 2014 and 2022? I think this may be tough. As the Russians get pushed back to their own border, they get closer and closer to their own source of supplies. Russia logistics are not very strong. They can't support a deep advance into Ukraine. They don't have enough quality trucks. They could really use some Lend Lease Dodge trucks like the thousands they had in 1943-1945. But at some point, within a few miles of the border, they should be able to hold. Still, if the army morale suffers enough, who knows?
The two things Ukraine can and should take back are:
1. The Crimea Land Bridge.
2. Crimea.
The Crimean Land Bridge should be relatively easy. It's a logistical nightmare. A long narrow corridor leading a relatively long way back into Russia. Might even be possible to trap a good portion of the Russia army with their backs to the very shallow Sea of Azov, with a low to zero chance of evacuating.
Crimea seems tough. But once they take the Crimea Land Bridge and destroy the Russia build bridge (not to be confused with the 'Crimean Land Bridge') it will be isolated and they should be able to take it back.
Losing Crimea, Losing the Naval Base at Sevastopol, that the Russians took in 2014 would be a big psychological blow. It might be enough to convince Russians that war is not the answer.
Who knows. Maybe Russian morale will collapse enough for the Ukrainians to take back all their territories. But they better not make peace without taking the Crimean Land and Crimea. Otherwise, the Russians are sure to come back once they have rebuild their army and rigorously rid it of excessive corruption. They will be too encouraged by whatever gains they end up with from 2022 not to press on a few years down the road.
Is their risk in doing this? Yes. Russia may use Neclear weapons. But if we don't stand up to them at some point they can overrun Ukraine, the Baltic States, Poland, Germany and beyond. If we are ever going to stand up to them, it had better be now. Or not at all.
If we back down now, but make a strong stand later, for let's say Poland, Russia is bound to think that the threat of Nuclear War was enough in 2023. Surely a few real Nuclear Strikes will work in 2030.
We must make a strong stand now. Or rigorously resolve not to make a strong stand in the future against any Russian advance. Making a strong stand now, or resolving not to make a strong stand ever, are our two best options. Backing down now, but making a strong stand later, is our worst option.
Question for both Jon and Richard, or anyone else?
Which option do you believe we should make?
1. Make a strong stand now.
2. Not make a strong stand now, but do so if Russia tries again, as it did in 2014 and 2022.
3. Not to ever make a strong stand in Europe, anywhere, no matter what Russia invades. The risks of Nuclear War are just too great. And, as always, it's important not to dodge tough questions. Facing questions is the key to coming to better understanding. Otherwise, one is stuck in always maintaining one's current beliefs.
Can either of you answer one simple, tough question?