Colors of Blue and Gold

[Martin Weidmann]

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.  What happens next is that Ukraine will insist on jets.  When that doesn't change the situation, they will request US and NATO ground troops.  The problem here is that no matter what they are sent it is up to Russians as to when this war ends.  Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.  They can only keep up the fight and hope the Russians eventually lose their political will to continue the war.  A strategy that generally takes many years.

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.

What an ignorant comment. Hitler invaded Russia itself and got stuck in Stalingrad in the winter. The Russians basically used the same tactic as they did when Napoleon invaded.

Ukraine is not going to invade Russia. The Leopards, of which there will be far more than 14 (Germany alone is sending some 90), will be used to kick Russia out of Ukraine.

Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.

They never had any plans to do so. But they sure as hell can kick Russia out of their country.

Two factors will determine the outcome; (1) the decline of the economic situation of Russia (to date imports and exports are down by 50% and (2) the inability of Russia to take over Ukraine completely. Combined this means a prolonged military conflict that's going nowhere fast and ending up being pointless and lots of hardship for the Russian people.

The Russian tried to win this war on the cheap.  They sent their most poorly trained troops and equipment.  That could change.  The Russians have the tanks and troops to overrun Ukraine in a week if they unleash them.  Does NATO and the US allow that to happen or do they send in ground troops? 

Wow, so much admiration for Russia from a guy who clearly hates the country he's now living in. Perhaps a change of address is in order!

[Richard Smith]

Hitler sent thousands of tanks against Russia and lost.  So it is difficult to understand how 14 Leopards is going to change the situation.

What an ignorant comment. Hitler invaded Russia itself and got stuck in Stalingrad in the winter. The Russians basically used the same tactic as they did when Napoleon invaded.

Ukraine is not going to invade Russia. The Leopards, of which there will be far more than 14 (Germany alone is sending some 90), will be used to kick Russia out of Ukraine.

Ukraine can't militarily defeat Russia by driving to Moscow.

They never had any planes to do so. But they sure as hell can kick Russia out of their country.

Two factors will determine the outcome; (1) the decline of the economic situation of Russia (to date imports and exports are down by 50% and (2) the inability of Russia to take over Ukraine completely. Combined this means a prolonged military conflict that's going nowhere fast and ending up being pointless and lots of hardship for the Russian people.

Wow, so much admiration for Russia from a guy who clearly hates the country he's now living in. Perhaps a change of address is in order!

A grain of wisdom here amongst the usual ignorance and insults.  Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.  As a result, the strategic outcome as to how long this war goes on and ends is totally with the Russians.  The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict.  Asking for more and more weapons like fighter jets and ground forces. A strategy that will take years and maximize the destruction and deaths.  History repeating itself over and over.  A handful of tanks will make little difference here except to escalate the Russian response.  Something that has already occurred. 

And how is that investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline coming?  That event happened months ago and the US blamed Russia.  As though Russia would blow up its own pipeline.  And if they did so, the US military and intelligence resources still have no proof to offer.  LOL.  I'm glad only the Russians use propaganda.

[Martin Weidmann]

A grain of wisdom here amongst the usual ignorance and insults.  Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.  As a result, the strategic outcome as to how long this war goes on and ends is totally with the Russians.  The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict.  Asking for more and more weapons like fighter jets and ground forces. A strategy that will take years and maximize the destruction and deaths.  History repeating itself over and over.  A handful of tanks will make little difference here except to escalate the Russian response.  Something that has already occurred. 

And how is that investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline coming?  That event happened months ago and the US blamed Russia.  As though Russia would blow up its own pipeline.  And if they did so, the US military and intelligence resources still have no proof to offer.  LOL.  I'm glad only the Russians use propaganda.

Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.

They never had any intention to do so and if they did it would only prolong the war. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an aggressor. As such it will always be up to the aggressor to end hostilities. Time is not on Russia's side. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian deaths and the lack of results will have to be explained to a people that's already suffering under the sanctions. The more time goes by without any significant progress for Russia, the more popular support will wane. History will indeed repeat itself as Russia will ultimately have to pull out or go for mass destruction, which of course will include their own destruction as well.

[Jon Banks]

A grain of wisdom here amongst the usual ignorance and insults.  Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.  As a result, the strategic outcome as to how long this war goes on and ends is totally with the Russians.  The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict.  Asking for more and more weapons like fighter jets and ground forces. A strategy that will take years and maximize the destruction and deaths.  History repeating itself over and over.  A handful of tanks will make little difference here except to escalate the Russian response.  Something that has already occurred. 

And how is that investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline coming?  That event happened months ago and the US blamed Russia.  As though Russia would blow up its own pipeline.  And if they did so, the US military and intelligence resources still have no proof to offer.  LOL.  I'm glad only the Russians use propaganda.

I suspect that the US and UK with the help of allies like maybe Poland sabotaged Germany's pipelines. And yes, the investigation is being conducted quietly as there's no evidence so far that Russia did it. Even if Germany suspects that the US was behind the sabotage, what can they do about it? Absolutely nothing.

[Jon Banks]

Ukraine cannot, no matter how many weapons they are ever given, invade and conquer Russia.

They never had any intention to do so and if they did it would only prolong the war. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an aggressor. As such it will always be up to the aggressor to end hostilities. Time is not on Russia's side. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian deaths and the lack of results will have to be explained to a people that's already suffering under the sanctions. The more time goes by without any significant progress for Russia, the more popular support will wane. History will indeed repeat itself as Russia will ultimately have to pull out or go for mass destruction, which of course will include their own destruction as well.

I wouldn't bet on any of those things coming to pass. Ukraine is likely to be destroyed before Russia (in the event that financial support for Ukraine from western countries dries up).

So far, Russians are rallying around the flag and Putin doesn't appear to be under much political pressure at home. A consequence of escalating against Russia is that the Russian people increasingly feel like they're at war with the West (not just Ukraine) regardless of who is responsible for starting the war. Russians view the war as existential for them.

Politico: Appealing to Russians to end the war on Ukraine is wasted breath

Western nations started imposing financial and commercial sanctions on Russia immediately after its invasion of Ukraine began. Their goal was to not only punish Russia and disrupt President Vladimir Putin’s war machine, but there was hope that the resulting economic hardship might persuade ordinary Russians to rebel, or prompt a putsch by Kremlin insiders or oligarchs.

Nearly a year on, however, there are few signs of any significant cracks appearing in what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” backing Putin’s war. The overt splits and infighting taking place in both the Kremlin and the political-military establishment are over how to prosecute the war — not the future of the Russian leader — and public support for the war appears to remain high.

In a recent survey, Lev Gudkov’s Levada Center — currently the only independent opinion research organization in Russia — found that 53 percent of respondents subscribe to the view that Putin’s “special military operation” is progressing successfully. And in another survey last month, most respondents told Levada pollsters that “every real man should serve in the army.”

“State propaganda is still managing to forge a broad consensus,” Gudkov lamented in an interview.

Ukrainian lawmaker Mykola Kniazhytskyi agrees. “It is difficult to believe any Russian sociology, but it seems that the majority of Russians support the genocide against Ukrainians,” he told POLITICO.

Naturally, some have questioned the reliability of any sort of opinion polling coming out of Putin’s Russia. How trustworthy can the responses really be? If said in fear that a single word out of place might leak and prompt a late-night knock on the door, are those polled disguising what they really think?

Gudkov dismisses these questions of credibility, as his interviewers are well-trained, conduct long interviews and strive to ensure reliability. “People are not afraid to answer, that is a total misconception,” he said. And his overall bleak conclusion is that “Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians.”

The absence of large-scale anti-war protests in Russia appears to attest to Levada’s findings. Any demonstrations that took place in the past year were sporadic and much smaller in size than the anti-Putin protests seen from 2011 to 2013 and 2017 to 2019. On the afternoon of the invasion, for example, the largest demonstrations were in Moscow, where 2,000 protesters turned out, and in St. Petersburg there were around 1,000. But elsewhere across Russia, no city boasted more than a few hundred...

https://www.politico.eu/article/commentary-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-invasion-end/

[Martin Weidmann]

I wouldn't bet on any of those things coming to pass. Ukraine is likely to be destroyed before Russia (in the event that financial support for Ukraine from western countries dries up).

So far, Russians are rallying around the flag and Putin doesn't appear to be under much political pressure at home. A consequence of escalating against Russia is that the Russian people increasingly feel like they're at war with the West (not just Ukraine) regardless of who is responsible for starting the war. Russians view the war as existential for them.

Politico: Appealing to Russians to end the war on Ukraine is wasted breath

Western nations started imposing financial and commercial sanctions on Russia immediately after its invasion of Ukraine began. Their goal was to not only punish Russia and disrupt President Vladimir Putin’s war machine, but there was hope that the resulting economic hardship might persuade ordinary Russians to rebel, or prompt a putsch by Kremlin insiders or oligarchs.

Nearly a year on, however, there are few signs of any significant cracks appearing in what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” backing Putin’s war. The overt splits and infighting taking place in both the Kremlin and the political-military establishment are over how to prosecute the war — not the future of the Russian leader — and public support for the war appears to remain high.

In a recent survey, Lev Gudkov’s Levada Center — currently the only independent opinion research organization in Russia — found that 53 percent of respondents subscribe to the view that Putin’s “special military operation” is progressing successfully. And in another survey last month, most respondents told Levada pollsters that “every real man should serve in the army.”

“State propaganda is still managing to forge a broad consensus,” Gudkov lamented in an interview.

Ukrainian lawmaker Mykola Kniazhytskyi agrees. “It is difficult to believe any Russian sociology, but it seems that the majority of Russians support the genocide against Ukrainians,” he told POLITICO.

Naturally, some have questioned the reliability of any sort of opinion polling coming out of Putin’s Russia. How trustworthy can the responses really be? If said in fear that a single word out of place might leak and prompt a late-night knock on the door, are those polled disguising what they really think?

Gudkov dismisses these questions of credibility, as his interviewers are well-trained, conduct long interviews and strive to ensure reliability. “People are not afraid to answer, that is a total misconception,” he said. And his overall bleak conclusion is that “Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians.”

The absence of large-scale anti-war protests in Russia appears to attest to Levada’s findings. Any demonstrations that took place in the past year were sporadic and much smaller in size than the anti-Putin protests seen from 2011 to 2013 and 2017 to 2019. On the afternoon of the invasion, for example, the largest demonstrations were in Moscow, where 2,000 protesters turned out, and in St. Petersburg there were around 1,000. But elsewhere across Russia, no city boasted more than a few hundred...

https://www.politico.eu/article/commentary-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-invasion-end/

So far, Russians are rallying around the flag and Putin doesn't appear to be under much political pressure at home.

Really? Perhaps according to Russian propaganda.

Nearly a year on, however, there are few signs of any significant cracks appearing in what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” backing Putin’s war.

I seriously doubt that there has been one Western leader, supporting Ukraine, who believed the sanctions would settle the matter within a year.

Having said that, the result of the sanctions has already been that Russia's import and export are at only 50% from what they used to be before the war. Can you name me one economy in the world that can sustain such a reduction for a long period of time? And that's even before the income from natural gas and oil will dry up further as the West is getting it elsewhere.

[Jon Banks]

I seriously doubt that there has been one Western leader, supporting Ukraine, who believed the sanctions would settle the matter within a year.

Sanctions typically have the greatest impact in the initial phase. Eventually countries tend to figure out ways to evade sanctions. Russia seems to have shifted their supply-chains to China and India over the past year.

Did you happen to miss how Biden was claiming that the sanctions imposed last February would "cripple" Russia's economy?

Biden looks to cripple Russian economy with sanctions in response to invasion of Ukraine
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-looks-to-cripple-russian-economy-with-sanctions-in-response-to-invasion-of-ukraine-205959251.html


It hasn't stopped Russia's war machine, nor are there any signs of severe economic pain in Russia. There's a recession in Russia currently but it's nothing like what they experienced in the 1990s.

I think Putin invading Ukraine was a bad idea and Russia is paying a high price but now that they're in the war, they have to see it through because there aren't any off-ramps. Western leaders have revealed their intention to destroy Russia. There's no going back to the way things were before the war.

Ultimately, I think this war will end with some sort of official or unofficial partition of Ukraine...

[Joe Elliott]

. . . The only thing Ukraine can do is hold out and hope that Russia eventually tires of the conflict. . . .

Hope is what allowed Greece to survive long enough for the Persian empire to go home.
Hope is what allowed America to survive long enough for the British to go home.
Hope is what allowed Poland to survive long enough for the Russians to go home in 1920.
Hope is what allowed North Vietnam to survive long enough for the Americans to go home.
Hope is what allowed Poland to survive until both the Germans and later the Russians went home. Incredible but true.

Without hope small countries would not exist.

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

Maybe that is why we still have Poland and Ukraine. Some things are too good to die.

Regardless of what happens, Ukraine will survive. Poland survived and Ukraine will survive, in victory or defeat, as it has always done. Except this time, I don't think defeat is in the cards.