Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

[Joe Elliott]

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.

The target had an outline of a life size deer, with three concentric circles. The inner circle would could for 4 points. The next circle for 3. And the outermost circle for 2. A shot outside the largest circle, but on the outline of the deer (but not the rear part of the deer) would count as 1 point.

My father once told me, that in deer hunting, you don’t want to hit the rear of the deer. This would allow the deer to still get away but would wound it seriously enough that it would likely die in the coming days. Better to miss the deer altogether than to do that. Hence, I would guess, the somewhat strange scoring system.

Everyone would get a single shot (in the Single Shot competition) during a 4 second pass and would get 10 shots altogether.

The speed of the target was 18.75 feet per second or 12.8 mph. This is pretty slow. At 67 years old, I could run faster than that. I’m certain a real deer would run well over 30 mph. I suspect that they did not use real running deer solely for humane reasons.

Correction: I have not been timed recently and reflecting on this I realize I probably could not run this fast now. In high school, I was a relatively slow runner but I could run 100 yards in about 16 seconds so then, at least, I could have matched this pace. In any case, a very slow running speed for a deer who hopes to survive in the wild for a while.

Still, these were shots designed to test the best rifle shooters, at moving targets, in the world. So, I imagine they were pretty challenging.

In the real competition, the winner got 25 points, with several others just behind. So, an average shot would end up either in the “2” circle or the “3” circle. This competition appears to have been challenging because the three lowest scores were 11, 6 and 3 points.

The Angular velocity of the 1908 target varied from 3.21 to 3.26 degrees per second. Let’s compare this to the angular velocity of possible shots at Dealey Plaza. All the shots are listed from the highest to the lowest angular velocities:

The following chart lists:
     Angular Velocity of the Target, in degrees per second (dps),
     Tangential Velocity of the Target, in feet per second (fps),
     Distance to the Target, in feet (ft)


                                       Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man   at z-312:    6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke         at z-312:    5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft
TSBD position                   at z-153:    4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft

TSBD position                   at z-222:    1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                   at z-312:    0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Obviously, Oswald was attempting a shot at z-153, with a higher angular velocity, than the best shooters in the world in 1908 had to attempt. No wonder he missed the limousine. A shot from the Grassy Knoll would have even been tougher, at least the target would have had an even higher angular velocity.

Admittedly, the Angular Velocity does not take into account distances. Perhaps a superior comparison is from the Tangential Velocity of the Target. So the following chart as the previous, except it is ordered by the Tangential Velocity:


                                                        Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft
TSBD position                  at z-153:     4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man  at z-312:     6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke        at z-312:     5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft

TSBD position                  at z-222:     1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                  at z-312:     0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Either by using Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity, the two shots that hit from Oswald’s position are clearly the easiest of shots.

The 1908 data is not totally satisfactory. It does not give the size of the scoring circles. Nor the size of the outline of the deer and exactly which part of this outline was out of bounds. Still, it’s the best I have found. And the rifles available in 1908 would be roughly equivalent of Oswald’s Carcano rifle. If anyone has any data that is as good or better I would be interested in seeing a post to it. Particularly one that would show if Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity is a better measure of difficulty for shots under 200 yards.

[Charles Collins]

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.

The target had an outline of a life size deer, with three concentric circles. The inner circle would could for 4 points. The next circle for 3. And the outermost circle for 2. A shot outside the largest circle, but on the outline of the deer (but not the rear part of the deer) would count as 1 point.

My father once told me, that in deer hunting, you don’t want to hit the rear of the deer. This would allow the deer to still get away but would wound it seriously enough that it would likely die in the coming days. Better to miss the deer altogether than to do that. Hence, I would guess, the somewhat strange scoring system.

Everyone would get a single shot (in the Single Shot competition) during a 4 second pass and would get 10 shots altogether.

The speed of the target was 18.75 feet per second or 12.8 mph. This is pretty slow. At 67 years old, I could run faster than that. I’m certain a real deer would run well over 30 mph. I suspect that they did not use real running deer solely for humane reasons.

Still, these were shots designed to test the best rifle shooters, at moving targets, in the world. So, I imagine they were pretty challenging.

In the real competition, the winner got 25 points, with several others just behind. So, an average shot would end up either in the “2” circle or the “3” circle. This competition appears to have been challenging because the three lowest scores were 11, 6 and 3 points.

The Angular velocity of the 1908 target varied from 3.21 to 3.26 degrees per second. Let’s compare this to the angular velocity of possible shots at Dealey Plaza. All the shots are listed from the highest to the lowest angular velocities:

The following chart lists:
     Angular Velocity of the Target, in degrees per second (dps),
     Tangential Velocity of the Target, in feet per second (fps),
     Distance to the Target, in feet (ft)


                                       Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man   at z-312:    6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke         at z-312:    5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft
TSBD position                   at z-153:    4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft

TSBD position                   at z-222:    1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                   at z-312:    0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Obviously, Oswald was attempting a shot at z-153, with a higher angular velocity, than the best shooters in the world in 1908 had to attempt. No wonder he missed the limousine. A shot from the Grassy Knoll would have even been tougher, at least the target would have had an even higher angular velocity.

Admittedly, the Angular Velocity does not take into account distances. Perhaps a superior comparison is from the Tangential Velocity of the Target. So the following chart as the previous, except it is ordered by the Tangential Velocity:


                                                        Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft
TSBD position                  at z-153:     4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man  at z-312:     6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke        at z-312:     5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft

TSBD position                  at z-222:     1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                  at z-312:     0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Either by using Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity, the two shots that hit from Oswald’s position are clearly the easiest of shots.

The 1908 data is not totally satisfactory. It does not give the size of the scoring circles. Nor the size of the outline of the deer and exactly which part of this outline was out of bounds. Still, it’s the best I have found. And the rifles available in 1908 would be roughly equivalent of Oswald’s Carcano rifle. If anyone has any data that is as good or better I would be interested in seeing a post to it. Particularly one that would show if Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity is a better measure of difficulty for shots under 200 yards.

Interesting stuff there Joe. I am not familiar with the term tangential velocity as it relates to this subject. But I think that I understand angular velocity.


Here’s a response (that I heartily agree with) to a question about the difficulty of the Dealey Plaza shots that I found on the internet:


If you look at this map, you can see that Oswald had a much easier shot than even most of the comments are indicating because he chose his position very carefully.

Note that he does not really have to lead in the horizontal plane. This is a difficult (though possible) shot even for a relatively slow moving target. But because of where he shot from, he only needed to correct in the vertical plane because Kennedy's limo is moving along his line-of-sight on both approach and exit. This is because the schoolbook depository is at the apex of a 120 degree bend in the route. His only necessary correction for movement was in the vertical plane (the easiest to correct for both due to trigonometry and the fact that people are longer vertically).

He chose his position very carefully. Was he that good a shot? Who knows...a lot of people could have made that shot. But he was very clever in where he chose to shoot from...I don't know if a lot of people would have thought of that.


Most of the responses point out that the relatively short distances of the shots (in Dealey Plaza) is what makes the other factors less important to the difficulty of the shots.


https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/30c160/eli5_how_hard_is_it_for_a_sniper_to_shoot_a/

[Joe Elliott]

Interesting stuff there Joe. I am not familiar with the term tangential velocity as it relates to this subject. But I think that I understand angular velocity.

Radial velocity and Tangential velocity are used to describe the motion on an object as seen from some observer. The concept is similar to the following example.

An object is moving Southeast at 5 feet per second. It's velocity in the Southern direction, along the South pointing vector might be 3 feet per second. It's velocity in the Eastern direction, along the East pointing vector might be 4 feet per second.

For an observer currently directly South of the object, its radial velocity would be 3 feet per second. It's tangential velocity would be 4 feet per second. The radial velocity has no effect on the angular speed of the object. Only the tangential velocity has an effect. So magnitude of the angular velocity does not only depend on the velocity, or speed, of the object, but also on the direction of travel. The angular velocity is zero if the object happens to be heading directly toward, or away from the observer. And at a maximum if it happens to be heading at right angles.

The observer doesn't have to be directly South of the moving object. The object could be to the northeast, moving in a southeastern, mostly southern, direction. The radial velocity could be 3 feet per second and the tangential direction could be 4 feet per second.

I don't know which is a better indicator of a difficulty of a shot that is pretty close, under 200 yards. The 'Angular velocity' or the 'Tangential velocity'. I suspect it is the 'Angular velocity'. But I decided to show both.

Here’s a response (that I heartily agree with) to a question about the difficulty of the Dealey Plaza shots that I found on the internet:


If you look at this map, you can see that Oswald had a much easier shot than even most of the comments are indicating because he chose his position very carefully.

Note that he does not really have to lead in the horizontal plane. This is a difficult (though possible) shot even for a relatively slow moving target. But because of where he shot from, he only needed to correct in the vertical plane because Kennedy's limo is moving along his line-of-sight on both approach and exit. This is because the schoolbook depository is at the apex of a 120 degree bend in the route. His only necessary correction for movement was in the vertical plane (the easiest to correct for both due to trigonometry and the fact that people are longer vertically).

He chose his position very carefully. Was he that good a shot? Who knows...a lot of people could have made that shot. But he was very clever in where he chose to shoot from...I don't know if a lot of people would have thought of that.


Most of the responses point out that the relatively short distances of the shots (in Dealey Plaza) is what makes the other factors less important to the difficulty of the shots.


https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/30c160/eli5_how_hard_is_it_for_a_sniper_to_shoot_a/

I agree with this. I think the position was chosen to minimize the angular velocity of the shot. Choosing a position where the limousine would be travelling as close as possible in a direction leading directly away from the window. Assuming the limousine travels along Elm Street, which is a pretty safe assumption. It is an obvious position to choose. It also minimizes the distance to the target, by a little, but I think that this would be of secondary importance.

[Charles Collins]

Radial velocity and Tangential velocity are used to describe the motion on an object as seen from some observer. The concept is similar to the following example.

An object is moving Southeast at 5 feet per second. It's velocity in the Southern direction, along the South pointing vector might be 3 feet per second. It's velocity in the Eastern direction, along the East pointing vector might be 4 feet per second.

For an observer currently directly South of the object, its radial velocity would be 3 feet per second. It's tangential velocity would be 4 feet per second. The radial velocity has no effect on the angular speed of the object. Only the tangential velocity has an effect. So magnitude of the angular velocity does not only depend on the velocity, or speed, of the object, but also on the direction of travel. The angular velocity is zero if the object happens to be heading directly toward, or away from the observer. And at a maximum if it happens to be heading at right angles.

The observer doesn't have to be directly South of the moving object. The object could be to the northeast, moving in a southeastern, mostly southern, direction. The radial velocity could be 3 feet per second and the tangential direction could be 4 feet per second.

I don't know which is a better indicator of a difficulty of a shot that is pretty close, under 200 yards. The 'Angular velocity' or the 'Tangential velocity'. I suspect it is the 'Angular velocity'. But I decided to show both.

I agree with this. I think the position was chosen to minimize the angular velocity of the shot. Choosing a position where the limousine would be travelling as close as possible in a direction leading directly away from the window. Assuming the limousine travels along Elm Street, which is a pretty safe assumption. It is an obvious position to choose. It also minimizes the distance to the target, by a little, but I think that this would be of secondary importance.

Thanks for the explanation. I have a much better understanding now.


Yes, additionally, people who wonder why he chose to shoot when the target was on Elm Street instead of Houston Street should consider that the downward slope of Elm Street helped to minimize the difficulty of the shot. Also, attacking from behind made it less likely that he would be seen by the protective personnel. And it caused some initial confusion because a lot of people wrongly assumed that the shots came from the area in front of the limousine. He apparently only had a relatively short time to plan the ambush. But it appears to me that he made some good decisions in that short time period.

[Brian Roselle]

Joe,

I am late reading this but I like how you associated this to a similar analysis in sports.
 
This remined me of a somewhat similar thing I saw awhile back related to skeet shooting.

The reference I saw was on page 189 of the book “Mastering Skeet” by King Heiple.
 
https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Skeet-Fundamental-Techniques-Championship/dp/0811733610?asin=0811733610&revisionId=&format=4&depth=1

I’m not sure but perhaps folks can still search or scroll to page 189 on Amazon in a preview.

The gist was that when I was looking at an early first shot (somewhat earlier than what is commonly assumed), I recall the angular velocity estimate of the president’s head from the snipers nest was something like 5.4 deg/sec.  This book indicated that in skeet, for station one high house, the bird is around 5 deg/sec when it’s at its center shooting position between 60 and 70 feet.

If a clay pigeon has a diameter a little less than a human head, then maybe trying to hit the president's head with a rifle at ~107 feet at ~5.4 deg/sec angular velocity is like trying to hit a clay pigeon with a rifle at ~70 feet center and ~5 deg/sec angular velocity from station one high in skeet. If such a shot was as easy as so many people insist, and no one could miss the President with a close shot like that, maybe more people should be using rifles (rather than shotguns) at the skeet range to show how easy it is to consistently blast a clay pigeon from station one, but their real skill is displayed at the other stations.

I don’t shoot skeet so can’t be sure how difficult it would be to hit a clay pigeon with a rifle but this book’s description of the mechanics of skeet shooting was interesting as I interpret the data relative to the first shot in the assassination.

[Joe Elliott]

Joe,

I am late reading this but I like how you associated this to a similar analysis in sports.
 
This remined me of a somewhat similar thing I saw awhile back related to skeet shooting.

The reference I saw was on page 189 of the book “Mastering Skeet” by King Heiple.
 
https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Skeet-Fundamental-Techniques-Championship/dp/0811733610?asin=0811733610&revisionId=&format=4&depth=1

I’m not sure but perhaps folks can still search or scroll to page 189 on Amazon in a preview.

The gist was that when I was looking at an early first shot (somewhat earlier than what is commonly assumed), I recall the angular velocity estimate of the president’s head from the snipers nest was something like 5.4 deg/sec.  This book indicated that in skeet, for station one high house, the bird is around 5 deg/sec when it’s at its center shooting position between 60 and 70 feet.

If a clay pigeon has a diameter a little less than a human head, then maybe trying to hit the president's head with a rifle at ~107 feet at ~5.4 deg/sec angular velocity is like trying to hit a clay pigeon with a rifle at ~70 feet center and ~5 deg/sec angular velocity from station one high in skeet. If such a shot was as easy as so many people insist, and no one could miss the President with a close shot like that, maybe more people should be using rifles (rather than shotguns) at the skeet range to show how easy it is to consistently blast a clay pigeon from station one, but their real skill is displayed at the other stations.

I don’t shoot skeet so can’t be sure how difficult it would be to hit a clay pigeon with a rifle but this book’s description of the mechanics of skeet shooting was interesting as I interpret the data relative to the first shot in the assassination.

Brian

I am no kind of expert of shooting with any weapon, be it rifle or shotgun, but hitting a moving target with a shotgun must be much easier than using a rifle. The shotgun pellets spread a fair amount, I understand, so there is a good deal more for margin of error with a shotgun than a rifle.

Your information is still useful. Moving from a target moving at 3.2 degrees per second to 5.4 degrees per second, to get hits at the higher angular velocity target, one must:

1. Use a shotgun, which gives on a much greater margin of error, due to the spread of the shotgun pellets - Makes the shot easier
2. Reduce the range from 330 feet to 60 or 70 feet - Makes the shot easier
3. Use as a target something that is a lot smaller than an outline of a Running Deer. The best shooters generally scored two or three points, so they were often able to hit a target a good deal smaller than a deer. Still, overall, the size of the target was, I would guess, larger than a clay pigeon - Makes the shot harder

I don't know but factors 1 and 3 probably about cancel each other out. All in all, it appears one must give the shooter who can hit a target moving at 3.2 degrees per second a significant edge to allow them to still hit a target at 5.4 degrees per second.

So, as an aside, I think they use shotguns instead of rifles, to allow a reasonable chance of hitting a clay pigeon, or a real bird. Also, using rifles would endanger people, animals and property two or more miles down range while shotgun pellets would fall out of the sky much sooner.

Using the information I found on Running Deer shooting, and the information you found on skeet shooting, leads me to conclude:

1. A target moving at 3.2 degrees per second provides a very difficult target, requiring a world class shooter, at least by 1908 standards (and likely 2022 standards) to have a good chance of hitting such a target.

2. A target moving at 5.4 degrees per second is even much more challenging. Almost doubling the angular velocity requires making the target about five times closer.

All in all, it's not surprising that Oswald could miss the limousine, at z153, with a target moving at a higher angular velocity than Olympic athletes had to hit in 1908.

In addition:

The grassy knoll shots would have been fired from a range of 100 or so feet, with an angular velocity greater than that of skeet shooting. Not vastly different than a clay pigeon shot. So still probably quite doable with a shotgun, but pretty chancy for most rifle shooters. Michael Yardley, a British world class skeet shooter (and a JFK CTer) who reenacted rifle shots for the Discovery Channel stated that he believed he could successfully recreate a Grassy Knoll shot. He asked the Discovery Channel if he could attempt this but they only had time to test the Oswald shots. I accept Michael Yardley's opinion that the Grassy Knoll shot could be made by a world class expert. Still, the shooter was really making it tough for himself to attempt such a difficult shot. And making it much more likely he would be clearly photographed and caught if he fired from there, as opposed from a darkened window. Making the scenario that there really was a Grassy Knoll shooter pretty implausible, to me.

[Brian Roselle]

Brian

I am no kind of expert of shooting with any weapon, be it rifle or shotgun, but hitting a moving target with a shotgun must be much easier than using a rifle. The shotgun pellets spread a fair amount, I understand, so there is a good deal more for margin of error with a shotgun than a rifle.

Your information is still useful. Moving from a target moving at 3.2 degrees per second to 5.4 degrees per second, to get hits at the higher angular velocity target, one must:

1. Use a shotgun, which gives on a much greater margin of error, due to the spread of the shotgun pellets - Makes the shot easier
2. Reduce the range from 330 feet to 60 or 70 feet - Makes the shot easier
3. Use as a target something that is a lot smaller than an outline of a Running Deer. The best shooters generally scored two or three points, so they were often able to hit a target a good deal smaller than a deer. Still, overall, the size of the target was, I would guess, larger than a clay pigeon - Makes the shot harder

I don't know but factors 1 and 3 probably about cancel each other out. All in all, it appears one must give the shooter who can hit a target moving at 3.2 degrees per second a significant edge to allow them to still hit a target at 5.4 degrees per second.

So, as an aside, I think they use shotguns instead of rifles, to allow a reasonable chance of hitting a clay pigeon, or a real bird. Also, using rifles would endanger people, animals and property two or more miles down range while shotgun pellets would fall out of the sky much sooner.

Using the information I found on Running Deer shooting, and the information you found on skeet shooting, leads me to conclude:

1. A target moving at 3.2 degrees per second provides a very difficult target, requiring a world class shooter, at least by 1908 standards (and likely 2022 standards) to have a good chance of hitting such a target.

2. A target moving at 5.4 degrees per second is even much more challenging. Almost doubling the angular velocity requires making the target about five times closer.

All in all, it's not surprising that Oswald could miss the limousine, at z153, with a target moving at a higher angular velocity than Olympic athletes had to hit in 1908.

In addition:

The grassy knoll shots would have been fired from a range of 100 or so feet, with an angular velocity greater than that of skeet shooting. Not vastly different than a clay pigeon shot. So still probably quite doable with a shotgun, but pretty chancy for most rifle shooters. Michael Yardley, a British world class skeet shooter (and a JFK CTer) who reenacted rifle shots for the Discovery Channel stated that he believed he could successfully recreate a Grassy Knoll shot. He asked the Discovery Channel if he could attempt this but they only had time to test the Oswald shots. I accept Michael Yardley's opinion that the Grassy Knoll shot could be made by a world class expert. Still, the shooter was really making it tough for himself to attempt such a difficult shot. And making it much more likely he would be clearly photographed and caught if he fired from there, as opposed from a darkened window. Making the scenario that there really was a Grassy Knoll shooter pretty implausible, to me.

Thx, Your analysis seems pretty good to me.

I qualified as a Marksman on fixed targets with a .22 rifle, but I think it would be pretty difficult to hit moving targets. Ok, full disclosure, it was only an NRA Boy Scout level Marksman many years ago but I think accurately hitting a non-stationary target with any appreciable motion would be hard to do without decent knowledge of the target's speed and quite a bit of practice.

[Walt Cakebread]

Thx, Your analysis seems pretty good to me.

I qualified as a Marksman on fixed targets with a .22 rifle, but I think it would be pretty difficult to hit moving targets. Ok, full disclosure, it was only an NRA Boy Scout level Marksman many years ago but I think accurately hitting a non-stationary target with any appreciable motion would be hard to do without decent knowledge of the target's speed and quite a bit of practice.

Clearly you were a good honest scout....Brian.     Honesty is something that is sorely lacking in these discussions  about the murder of President Kennedy.

And I wanted to tell you that you're quite right in saying:....  "I think accurately hitting a non-stationary target with any appreciable motion would be hard to do without decent knowledge of the target's speed and quite a bit of practice".

And  you probably know that Lee Oswald had no practice at all...   Even in the Marine Corp ( 4 years earlier)  he never was taught how to hit a moving target....

And I neglected to mention that there was a tree in full foliage between the sixth floor window and the moving Lincoln. What do you believe the odds are for hitting a target with deadly accuracy if the moving target  is obscured by a tree?