Now What Mr. Trump?

[Joe Elliott]

Now What Mr. Trump?

The results are still coming in but it is already clear that the 'Big Red Wave' has fizzled.

Typically, in the off year, the party that does not control the Presidency does very well. Americans like to keep one party from having a monopoly of power. But this off year election is different.

It looks like the Republicans will barely get control of the House. But only because four states have Jerrymandered their districts to give Republicans an edge. As Stephan Colbert has pointed out, it is clear there are only two possible outcome:
1. Either the Democrats will get more votes and keep control of the House.
2. Or the Democrats will get more votes but lose control of the House.
Without Jerrymandering, the Democrats would have kept their control of the House. And, as I understand it, there is still a slight chance they still might.

Which Republicans did badly? The ones who supported Trump the most. Who not only got his endorsement, but also supported his 'Stolen Election' lie. Those guys got clobbered. The setup I feared, Election Deniers winning critical 'Secretary of State' positions, critical races for Governor where the Governor can appoint the Secretary of State, like Pennsylvania, did not materialized. Not a single state, not even one 'Deep Red' state, was willing to go that far. So Trump's most probable path to victory, having enough 'Secretary of State's' awarding him the election against the wishes of the people of that state, is not going to happen.

Which Republicans did best? The ones who distanced themselves from Trump. Including, most prominent, Trump's biggest enemy in the Republican party, the Governor of Florida DeSantis. Trump hates Pence, but he fears DeSantis.

The bottom line?

The majority of Republicans like Trump best. But the people of America on the whole reject him. What does this mean?

The smart thing for Republicans to do is drop Trump. And find someone else to back, like DeSantis, who could win. But I think the lure of winning permanently, of getting Trump in office somehow so the system can be rigged to allow Republicans to always win future elections. will be too strong to resist.

My prediction?

Trump will win the Republican nomination for President in the summer of 2024.
And Trump will lose the election in November 2024 by a wide margin.
And the Republicans will throw away a bird in hand to go for dozens in the bush.

[Joe Elliott]

“Biggest loser tonight”: Trumpworld is “catatonic” over his MAGA midterm failure

https://www.salon.com/2022/11/09/biggest-loser-tonight-trumpworld-is-catatonic-over-his-maga-midterm-failure/

Who is Ron DeSantis? "Ron DeFuture", if the Republicans want the best chance of winning in 2024. Not a great candidate, but the Republicans best bet to win.

Trump has said that if DeSantis runs against him, he will regret it. Trump has some very damaging information about DeSantis. What could it be? Who knows? Maybe Trump got a hold of one of his laptops and handed it over to the Russians. We shall see.

I, for one, am interested in this 'information' that Trump has for us about DeSantis.

[Joe Elliott]

How Moderates Won the Midterms

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/how-moderates-won-the-midterms/ar-AA13VUZK?cvid=ede494bcfd7a42d0b8302f3d4f4349c8

The rise in split-ticket voting shows that Americans have a real preference for moderates when they are on the ballot. Yet the system that both major parties use to pick their candidates may ensure that this choice won’t be on offer when it counts most, in November 2024.

The midterms have sent a clear lesson to both Democrats and Republicans. To maximize the chances of winning the White House in 2024, pick a moderate candidate who can reach beyond the party’s base. If both parties heed the lesson, that could usher in a less polarized and perilous era in American politics. If only one party heeds the lesson, it will likely enjoy a big advantage. If neither party heeds it, anything is possible—including a second term for Donald Trump.

The bottom line? We are not out of the woods yet. The Democrats must not nominate someone like Bernie Sanders. The survival of Democracy is at stake. 2024 is not the year to gamble.

Nor is Joseph Biden a good option, although I like him. The Republican House will investigate him. There may be nothing to it, there may be no 'Fire', but the Republicans can certainly manufacture 'Smoke'. And this 'Smoke' is sure to reach a peak in September-October of 2024 and kill Biden chances, as Clinton's changes were killed by a lot of 'Smoke' in 2016. Let's not make things easy for the Republicans in 2024, particularly if Trump is the Republican candidate, which I still expect. The base loves him. He could potentially ensure Republican wins into the indefinite future. So he will win the Primaries. We must expect that Trump will be running in November 2024 and he MUST be defeated.

May I suggest someone like Sherrod Brown, Senator Senator from Ohio. Seventy years old today. Serving in the Senate since 2007. Moderate. Appeals to the Center, not to the 'Far Right' or 'Far Left'. From an important swing state, not a Deep Blue State like Governor Gavin Newsom. Let's keep Democracy safe.

[Joe Elliott]

"Unprecedented irregularities": MAGA election losers stoke conspiracies and refuse to concede

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/unprecedented-irregularities-maga-election-losers-stoke-conspiracies-and-refuse-to-concede/ar-AA13Vnsn?cvid=1e2a0ee015ca4167a7e8b0830ff49da0

Despite Shapiro's projected win, Mastriano said that there's still "a ways to go," noting that there are more votes to be counted.

"Have faith, we're gonna, uh, of course, we're gonna have faith and have patience," he told his supporters in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania late Tuesday night. "We're gonna wait until every vote counts, right?"

And then he's going to see if he can get enough of these votes tossed out so he wins anyway.

And Doug Mastriano is, of course, holding firm to the MAGA most sacred principles. If behind "Continue to Count Every Vote". If ahead but slipping "Stop the Count Now".

[Joe Elliott]

According to Ana Navarro (who lives in Florida), Ron DeSantis' artificially-large win was due to a "rigged" system in Florida. For example, DeSantis (as other GOP Governors now want to emulate) made advance-voting harder. This was squarely aimed at Democrats, who like to vote early. The dog-whistles from DeSantis would have intimidated many Florida Democrats to feel threatened if they showed up on election day. Besides, Democrats were understandably not that motivated by Charlie Crist.

    "DeSantis won BIGLY. But let’s be real. He ran against a political
     corpse. Crist’s career has been dead for years. He’s now lost 5
     statewide races - as a Republican, an Independent and a Dem.
     And @FLADems have been MIA. That depressed turn-out, which
     was down 10% from 2018."

According to Ana Navarro (who lives in Florida), Ron DeSantis' artificially-large win was due to a "rigged" system in Florida. For example, DeSantis (as other GOP Governors now want to emulate) made advance-voting harder. This was squarely aimed at Democrats, who like to vote early.

Agreed. They claim that mail in ballots are prone to fraud. The real problem is that Democrats, who are often Blue Collar, tend to have more trouble getting enough time off of work to vote. And urban polling places are harder to access (parking) and more likely to be crowded, which suppresses voting. Suppressing mail in ballots allows the Republicans to continue to enjoy the unfair advantages they have enjoyed for decades.

Other tools, confusing rules on which ex-inmates are allowed to vote. I believe, if you have served your time, you should be sent a message that you are back to being a citizen. Not a message that you are a criminal, you will always be a criminal, so you can't vote. This increases their odds of going back into crime. But confusing rules not only stops some ex-cons from voting, it causes others not to vote, for fear they may be making a mistake and may go back to jail as a result. Publicising what may be technical mistakes also gives the impression that voting violations are a real problem. Showing 20 real technical mistakes will add to the impression that claims of thousands of fraudulent votes may also be true.

The dog-whistles from DeSantis would have intimidated many Florida Democrats to feel threatened if they showed up on election day. . . .

I think of secondary importance, compared to other factors. I don't think the intimidation extended too much further than that directed against ex-cons. Which is a bad thing, but not a factor against the majority of voters. I think DeSantis more relied on the difficulty of blue collar workers, particularly urban blue collar workers, with voting in person. Not so much with intimidation.

But certainly DeSantis did benefit from distancing himself, at least to a certain limited extent, from Trump. If he stressed that not only was the 2020 election stolen from Trump, but he would do whatever it took to see that this did not happen again, implying he would find reasons to toss out undesired votes, he would likely have lost.

[Joe Elliott]

Katie Hobbs' lead over Kari Lake continues to shrink in Arizona governor's race. Will it flip?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/katie-hobbs-lead-over-kari-lake-continues-to-shrink-in-arizona-governor-s-race-will-it-flip/ar-AA13VMzc?cvid=65c5da415ee04ac6923e2b4f16495148

The former television news anchor carried 70% of votes cast statewide on Election Day, collapsing what once was a 14 percentage-point Hobbs lead among early voters to less than 1 percentage point as of Wednesday morning.

Will this trend continue and cause MAGA Election Denier Kari Lake to win?

No. Most of the remaining votes to be counted are from the urban Maricopa County.

In Maricopa County on Wednesday morning, counting continued on ballots dropped off on Election Day and received in the immediate days before. In an update, Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates said about 400,000 votes remained uncounted, with most of those being ballots dropped off Tuesday.

Trump indorsed Kari Lake is toast. Like all the other MAGA Election Deniers for the critical Governor and Secretary of State offices.

[Joe Elliott]

David Frum (The Atlantic) wrote:

    "Trump led his party from loss to loss.
          He lost the popular vote in 2016. He lost the House in 2018. He lost
     the popular vote and the Electoral College in 2020. He lost the Senate
     in 2021.
          And yet, despite all this loserdom, his party whimpered and submitted.
          ...

His party whimpered and submitted, not due to the power of Trump's personality, but because more than 50% of Republicans want Trump and nobody else besides Trump. Why? Not despite all the outrageous things he has said and done but because of them.

He made it clear that he supports racism (Charlottesville 2017 "There are good people on both sides").
He tried to overturn an election in 2020, which implies he will do whatever it takes to stay in power for the rest of his life.
He seems to be guilty of various crimes, which only increases the odds he will do whatever it takes to seize and hold on to power.

Combined with the changing demographics in the country, the percentage of people of mostly European descent getting less and less, means that to them, Fascism is the answer. They can't win elections in the long run. And time is running out.

I don't believe Trump "fooled" millions into believing the election was stolen. They just want to pretend to believe this so they have moral reasons to riot, seize ballot boxes, to do whatever it takes nullify elections. And Trump is the only candidate that they have good reason to believe will assist them in this endeavor.

This 51+ per cent of the Republican party is a great danger to Democracy in America. They are as great a danger as the German voters who supported Hitler were to German Democracy in the early 1930's. They will be a danger to American Democracy for some time after Trump has died. When he dies, or clearly proven he cannot win (I think the 2024 election will do that) they will look for another Trump. And I am certain they will find him. They were not such a big danger while they were unaware of each other. When they were unaware that tens of millions of Americans also secretly held these views as well. But they are aware now and a danger now for the rest of my life and beyond. It may be a blessing that, for the most part, the Greatest Generation did not live long enough to see these events take place. What the hell did they fight for if Trump prevails?

[Joe Elliott]

With the clear disaster than Trump has been in 2022, in what should have been a great off year election for the Republicans becoming a toss up. Will the Republican leadership turn against Trump? Trump insisted on endorsing weak candidates. So there would be no doubt who they owned their election to. And will support him the next time he needs an election nullified. And this has cost them seats, particularly in the Senate. They know they should. But they won't. The MAGA base, which takes up more than 50 per cent of the Republican party, will insist on staying with Trump. The Republican leaders, whatever they are saying today, will cave again. They will feel compelled to go against their better judgment. It will be:

It's been a hell of a ride, but count me out. No, count me in. No, count me out. No, count me back in again, please.

This clown parade will continue to produce more disasters for the Republicans, with an outside chance of a disaster for Democracy.