Let me throw that back at you.
Do you honestly believe:
A) that Russia would use their own naval ship to destroy infrastructure in waters patrolled by several NATO countries without expecting to get caught?
and
B) that NATO wasn't surveilling the movements of the Russian naval ship nine months ago when the sabotage happened?
You'd have to be naïve to believe the above two points.
And yes, the lack of a motive weighs heavy in my conclusion that it probably wasn't Russia. They spent billions to build both pipelines and lost what little leverage they had over Germany when the pipelines were destroyed.
Answering a question with a question is a clear sign of weakness and a typical strategy for not wanting to answer the question simply because you don't like the obvious answer.
Do you honestly believe:
A) that Russia would use their own naval ship to destroy infrastructure in waters patrolled by several NATO countries without expecting to get caught?
and
B) that NATO wasn't surveilling the movements of the Russian naval ship nine months ago when the sabotage happened?
You'd have to be naïve to believe the above two points.
Of course NATO was surveilling the movements of Russian ships. Having said that, I believe Putin is capable of anything, but you are right it would be a bit stupid but so was invading Ukraine as well....
Putin is very much aware that idiots like Trump blurred the lines between actual reality and desired alternative reality. Nowadays you can get away with much as long as you put enough spin on it and convince enough people that your BS is actually true. Against that background it doesn't really matter if NATO saw the Russian ships or not. Propaganda is the game of the moment.
And yes, the lack of a motive weighs heavy in my conclusion that it probably wasn't Russia. They spent billions to build both pipelines and lost what little leverage they had over Germany when the pipelines were destroyed.
Russia made a very stupid miscalculation. They figured that the West would continue to be dependent on their oil and gas after they invaded Ukraine. Instead, it exposed a weakness the EU countries needed to deal with and they now have found other sources of supply. They are already fully stocked up for the next winter and Russia now has to sell it's oil and gas at rock bottom prices to the few countries that still want to deal with them. Meanwhile gas prices in Europe have been dropping to below pre-covid days.
Putin may well have spent billions of those pipelines, but only one was ever functional and there is very little chance that the EU countries will ever trust Russia again. With that in mind, the two pipelines had no real value for Russia anymore, so why not blow them up and create another "look what they are doing to us", just like the drones over the Kremlin hoax?
