Good grief. That is some type of alternative reality. Biden didn't step aside. There was a coup. Old Joe's poll numbers were so disastrous that the Dem establishment knew he couldn't win. He still held on until they turned off the money and forced him out. They made him a Godfather-like offer that he couldn't refuse. The Dems set up Biden to drop out by scheduling the debate so early. Biden had shown the same signs of cognitive decline for years that were on display at the debate. The media and Dem establishment protected him and denied there was any issue until that point. After the debate, however, they immediately turned on him. It has all the hallmarks of a set up.
Cackllin' Kamala is dumb as a rock. She did not receive a single vote in any presidential primary. If Old Joe was considered one of the worst presidents in history according to the polls, she will be much, much worse. I do agree, however, that it will be a close election. Even Old Joe was in a deadheat before he was forced out. Cacklin' Kamala is a terrible candidate. Once the honeymoon is over after the upcoming convention her typical gaffes will deflate her chances. Remember when she told us that "AI" was two words? Or that Ukraine was a country in "Europe" and Russia was a bigger country? LOL. My favorite though was the creepy ad she filmed with child actors to tell them they were going to the moon. Those poor kids will never get that imagine of her out of their heads.
You are giving false information. Yes, Biden was talked into dropping out of the race because the poll numbers were not good enough. He was down by what, 2 per cent. Is this a disastrous amount?
In 1988, in late July, Bush was down by 17 % to Dukakis. In November Bush won by 8 percent. A swing of 25 %. The early polls are not always off by this but they sometimes are.
To allow me to work with whole numbers, I will say Bush was down by 16 % and won by 8 %.
Here is what i do NOT believe happened. 58 % of the voters supported Dukakis, 42 % supported Bush. And zero percent were undecided. Then just over one fifth of the Dukakis supporters changed their minds, 12 % of the 58 %. Making the final tally 46 % to 54 %.
Here is what I DO believe happened. 29 % of the voters supported Dukakis, 21 % Bush, 50 % undecided. The press did not include the undecided but just gave the percentages of the decided, 58 % for Dukakis and 42 % for Bush. Then, of the 50 % undecided, a disproportionate percentage, about two thirds, decided to with Bush, adding this 33 % to Bush while only adding 17 % to Dukakis.
Neither scenario I listed is totally accurate. I think there were a few voters that changed their minds. But scenario 2 is a lot more accurate than scenario 1, where everyone had there minds made up in July but a lot of them changed their minds.
You see, the thing is, there are two types of voters.
1. Those who are following the election for many months and have pretty much made up their minds.
2. Those who don't start paying attention until a month or two before the election and make up their minds late.
This happens in every election. These two groups of people are a different breed of cat. The second group does not necessarily vote the same way the first group does, in similar percentages.
So why did the Democrats panic in 2024, being down only 2 % while the Republicans did not in 1988, being down 17 %? Because Dukakis was not a threat to Democracy. If he was a Communist, who had previously praised Castro, and had a mob storm the capitol in 1985 in an attempt to make himself president, and they were now down by 17 %, then yes, I think the Republicans would have panicked and convince Bush to step aside. But, since there was no threat to Democracy, they just shrugged and said, what the hell, we will stick with Bush and hope for the best.
Trump being a terrible threat, a clear threat to Democracy, caused Biden to step down. Not because he is too old to serve as President, not because he is too old to run for President, but because Trump is such a huge and obvious threat, he have to get the 'perfect' candidate.
If Harris is up by 10 % by late August, are we out of the woods? Not even remotely. A huge block of voters are undecided. No one knows what they will decide because they haven't decide yet. They still have not given it much thought. We will have a better idea by the end of September.
I must say, the main thrust of Trump's campaign, you can't have a President that is too old, is going to haunt him. Maybe he should have not made this the main thrust of his campaign until after the Democratic convention. But Trump never was too smart.
