Emergency Doctors Determine that Trump was Struck by a Rifle Bullet

[Charles Collins]

Good enough.

However, I should point out that the head of the shooter looks like a totally sharp image. His head is not blurred at all. This, in addition to the bullet appearing, indicates a very high shutter speed.

In contrast, Trump's head is blurred, while the sign on the podium is sharp and clear. which implies a slower shutter speed. It doesn't matter if some cameras, or even his camera, was capable of a very high shutter speed. All that matters is what was the shutter speed setting when the picture was taken. And, with Trump's slightly blurred head, it appears it was not set at a high speed.

Calculate the estimated speed of the bullet at the distance from the muzzle (it loses speed as it travels through the air). Measure the estimated length of the streak in the photograph. From those two resulting numbers, calculate the shutter speed. The link to the web page gives you the settings that Peter Russell used. You can see that the streak of Rullell’s bullet is much shorter than the streak in the Trump image. Therefore we would expect that the much longer streak in the Trump image indicates a much slower shutter speed. If you are interested enough you can do the calculations and come up with a ballpark estimate. My guess is around 1/1000 of a second.

[Jerry Organ]

A composite image showing what appears to be a bullet passing by Donald J. Trump during a rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday. Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Mr. Mills was using a Sony digital camera capable of capturing images at up to 30 frames per second. He took these photos with a shutter speed of 1/8,000th of a second — extremely fast by industry standards.

The other factor is the speed of the bullet from the firearm. On Saturday law enforcement authorities recovered an AR-15-type semiautomatic rifle at the scene from a deceased white man they believe was the gunman.

“If the gunman was firing an AR-15-style rifle, the .223-caliber or 5.56-millimeter bullets they use travel at roughly 3,200 feet per second when they leave the weapon’s muzzle,’’ Mr. Harrigan said. “And with a 1/8,000th of a second shutter speed, this would allow the bullet to travel approximately four-tenths of a foot while the shutter is open.”

“Most cameras used to capture images of bullets in flight are using extremely high speed specialty cameras not normally utilized for regular photography, so catching a bullet on a side trajectory as seen in that photo would be a one in a million shot and nearly impossible to catch even if one knew the bullet was coming,” he said.

(from NYT article: Photo Appears to Capture Path of Bullet Used in Assassination Attempt, July 14, 2024)

[Charles Collins]

A composite image showing what appears to be a bullet passing by Donald J. Trump during a rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday. Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Mr. Mills was using a Sony digital camera capable of capturing images at up to 30 frames per second. He took these photos with a shutter speed of 1/8,000th of a second — extremely fast by industry standards.

The other factor is the speed of the bullet from the firearm. On Saturday law enforcement authorities recovered an AR-15-type semiautomatic rifle at the scene from a deceased white man they believe was the gunman.

“If the gunman was firing an AR-15-style rifle, the .223-caliber or 5.56-millimeter bullets they use travel at roughly 3,200 feet per second when they leave the weapon’s muzzle,’’ Mr. Harrigan said. “And with a 1/8,000th of a second shutter speed, this would allow the bullet to travel approximately four-tenths of a foot while the shutter is open.”

“Most cameras used to capture images of bullets in flight are using extremely high speed specialty cameras not normally utilized for regular photography, so catching a bullet on a side trajectory as seen in that photo would be a one in a million shot and nearly impossible to catch even if one knew the bullet was coming,” he said.

(from NYT article: Photo Appears to Capture Path of Bullet Used in Assassination Attempt, July 14, 2024)

Thanks, that should answer some of the questions.

[Jerry Organ]

The Mills Streak photo shows a brief moment after the second shot. Going by my memory of the NYT audio/video analysis, Trump's right hand flinches up about 1/5 sec after the first shot and is almost to chest level by the second shot. There's about one sec between the shots. So the photo is consistent with the second bullet (the streak) missing the head.

I assume the photographer would just hold the shutter button down and get a sequence of images until he released the shutter. I don't think Mills could have been motivated by hearing the shots to make his automatic sequence. It was coincidental. The first pop sound is not that loud; few react in the crowd.

Maybe Mills was trying to get a shot with the flag behind Trump. I wonder if the Streak photo was the first in the sequence.

[Charles Collins]

The Mills Streak photo shows a brief moment after the second shot. Going by my memory of the NYT audio/video analysis, Trump's right hand flinches up about 1/5 sec after the first shot and is almost to chest level by the second shot. There's about one sec between the shots. So the photo is consistent with the second bullet (the streak) missing the head.

I assume the photographer would just hold the shutter button down and get a sequence of images until he released the shutter. I don't think Mills could have been motivated by hearing the shots to make his automatic sequence. It was coincidental. The first pop sound is not that loud; few react in the crowd.

Maybe Mills was trying to get a shot with the flag behind Trump. I wonder if the Streak photo was the first in the sequence.

Interesting, however the animation with the overhead view doesn’t quite synchronize with that analysis. It appears to me that it shows Trump’s right hand all the way up near his ear at the time of the second bullet.

[Jerry Organ]

Interesting, however the animation with the overhead view doesn’t quite synchronize with that analysis. It appears to me that it shows Trump’s right hand all the way up near his ear at the time of the second bullet.

I now have the animation. The right hand flinches just before the second shot; not just after the first shot as I tried to recall earlier. A few in the crowd begin to duck shortly after the second shot.

First Bullet

Right Hand Begins to Rise

Second Bullet

Third Bullet

I would say the bullet reports arrived at the camera's location about the same time Trump would have heard it; the camera and Trump are roughly a similar distance from the muzzle. The span between each shot differs; since the shooter was using a semi-automatic, he had to manually fire each shot. So between each shot, he was experiencing recoil, meaning his trajectory roamed a bit. I don't think he had a gun rest.

The gunman fired off another five rounds after the initial three-shot sequence. Going by the Times' gunman view, Corey Comperatore seems a bit away from the Trump line-of-attack.


_____



The overhead animation was made just a few days after the shooting. I suspect they didn't have a model of the overall area, didn't know exactly where the shooter was, didn't see where the first three bullets struck. Maybe they synced it to an audio; maybe they didn't.

For an animation done fast (maybe with AI), it was pretty good. The bullet would have struck Trump's skull if he hadn't moved. That's the point they were trying to make. To do all eight trajectories right and with precision, it will take the FBI months. There's the metal fragments to account for; maybe some bullets disintegrated. They might have to do ballistics tests. In a lessor case, they would just account for the Comperatore and wounding shots and leave it at that.

[Charles Collins]

I now have the animation. The right hand flinches just before the second shot; not just after the first shot as I tried to recall earlier. A few in the crowd begin to duck shortly after the second shot.

First Bullet

Right Hand Begins to Rise

Second Bullet

Third Bullet

I would say the bullet reports arrived at the camera's location about the same time Trump would have heard it; the camera and Trump are roughly a similar distance from the muzzle. The span between each shot differs; since the shooter was using a semi-automatic, he had to manually fire each shot. So between each shot, he was experiencing recoil, meaning his trajectory roamed a bit. I don't think he had a gun rest.

The gunman fired off another five rounds after the initial three-shot sequence. Going by the Times' gunman view, Corey Comperatore seems a bit away from the Trump line-of-attack.


_____



The overhead animation was made just a few days after the shooting. I suspect they didn't have a model of the overall area, didn't know exactly where the shooter was, didn't see where the first three bullets struck. Maybe they synced it to an audio; maybe they didn't.

For an animation done fast (maybe with AI), it was pretty good. The bullet would have struck Trump's skull if he hadn't moved. That's the point they were trying to make. To do all eight trajectories right and with precision, it will take the FBI months. There's the metal fragments to account for; maybe some bullets disintegrated. They might have to do ballistics tests. In a lessor case, they would just account for the Comperatore and wounding shots and leave it at that.

Wow, great post! Thanks Jerry. I cannot help but compare the reactions of some of the spectators to the reactions we have seen and discussed in the Zapruder film. Some react very quickly and some just don’t seem to react much at all.

[Jerry Organ]

    "I was taking pictures and that's when the pops started happening.
     And I just happened to have my finger on the shutter. And I heard
     the pops and just kept shooting."
          -- Doug Mills, captured bullet streak

A small crane held up speakers for the event. Its hydraulic line was severed.

Start of Animation