Oswald took 10.2 seconds to fire all three shots.

[Royell Storing]

I have a lot of respect for Max. But he didn’t get the seat box anywhere near the correct position in the video. The correct position of the seat box would have prevented the sniper from shooting in the locations and positions that Max shows in the video.

Again, I suggest you do the research yourself instead of assuming Max got that aspect right.

    Moving the position of the JFK Limo on Elm St to make your proposition work? Around here, that would get you crucified.

[Tom Mahon]

Based on a 2020 scientific analysis* of witnesses' conscious reactions to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot, said shot was at hypothetical "Z-124," i.e., half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133.

Oswald's second shot was around Z-222.

Oswald's third shot was at Z-313.


*Google "estimating occult timing" to read the 22-page PDF article.

[Andrew Mason]

It's funny how the human mind will often misremember a traumatic event, and it's funny how the unexpected sounds of three muzzle blasts and three supersonic "cracks" sounded different to people in different locations in the irregularly shaped echo chamber known as Dealey Plaza, especially since the muzzle of the short-rifle that fired them was inside a sixth-floor window for the first steeply-downward-angled shot and outside the window for the second and third, farther-down-the-street, shots.

What was traumatic about hearing a pattern of noises?  Most didn't even understand that they were shots initially. 

What is even funnier is that 47 witnesses out of 62 who recalled some pattern to the shots said the last two were closer together (when they were actually the other way around) and only 6 got the relative spacing "right".  Any reason for that?  They got the number of shots right. Most got the direction of the source generally correct.  Why would so many make the same mistake in what is otherwise a very simple and easy to make observation? 

Since echos or reverberation (since the reflected sound would have been less than 1/10th of a second after the muzzle blast reaching the observer's ears) depended on where the observer was in relation to the shots, and since the people reporting the same pattern were all over Dealey Plaza and some inside the building 10 feet from the rifle, why would they all make the same mistake in the shot spacing due to confusion about what a shot was? That makes no sense. Besides, none of them reported any difficulty in identifying the shots.

But the shot spacing is not all. Why did 20+ witnesses report seeing JFK react to the first shot?  You will find - surprise, surprise - that if the shot pattern was 1.........2.....3 then the first shot had to have hit JFK.  So the fact that 20+ witnesses watching JFK reported seeing him react to the first shot fits with the 47 witnesses observations of the last two shots being close together.

[Tom Mahon]

What was traumatic about hearing a pattern of noises?  Most didn't even understand that they were shots initially. 

What is even funnier is that 47 witnesses out of 62 who recalled some pattern to the shots said the last two were closer together (when they were actually the other way around) and only 6 got the relative spacing "right".  Any reason for that?  They got the number of shots right. Most got the direction of the source generally correct.  Why would so many make the same mistake in what is otherwise a very simple and easy to make observation? 

Since echos or reverberation (since the reflected sound would have been less than 1/10th of a second after the muzzle blast reaching the observer's ears) depended on where the observer was in relation to the shots, and since the people reporting the same pattern were all over Dealey Plaza and some inside the building 10 feet from the rifle, why would they all make the same mistake in the shot spacing due to confusion about what a shot was? That makes no sense. Besides, none of them reported any difficulty in identifying the shots.

But the shot spacing is not all. Why did 20+ witnesses report seeing JFK react to the first shot?  You will find - surprise, surprise - that if the shot pattern was 1.........2.....3 then the first shot had to have hit JFK.  So the fact that 20+ witnesses watching JFK reported seeing him react to the first shot fits with the 47 witnesses observations of the last two shots being close together.

The echoing of the three muzzle blasts and the three supersonic "cracks" created a cacophony of sound which fooled many witnesses into believing two of the three shots were close together.

[Charles Collins]

I don't have "The Lost Bullet," just some screenshots from it. I don't see the "sitting box" in those screenshots. What I do see is the "Oswald" actor kneeling in the same general area where Secret Service agent Howlett was sitting and assuming a shooting position (rather uncomfortably with just one bun on the box) during the 27 November 1963 reenactment. That part of the 11/27/63 reenactment looks feasible to me for Oswald's 2nd and 3rd shots, but not for his first, missing-everything, steeply-downward-angled shot for which he had to be standing and awkwardly leaning forward while firing it (and with the muzzle of the short rifle inside the building, which would explain why so many witnesses said the first shot sounded different from the other two).

I watched the video (thanks for the link Steve). The reason you don’t see the seat box in Holland’s video is because it isn’t there. Holland appears to try to disguise that fact by using camera angles that make it less than obvious to a casual observer. If the seat box had been it its proper position, the shooter (actor) would not have been able to stand or kneel in those positions.
I have constructed a full size model of the relevant parts of the snipers nest and sat in it with a rifle and aimed at targets positioned at the proper angles (similar to what Max Holland did). I provided a link to some photos and discussion of that experiment. I am ~5’-9” and the seated position provides a comfortable position for the Z224 & Z313 shots. The window box and the metal conduit adjacent to the window are potential interferences for an early shot from a seated position. It would be a very awkward shot though if it had been intentionally taken. That’s one reason that I believe the first missed shot was an inadvertent shot. Another reason is that if, in raising the rifle and preparing his aim, his left arm (elbow) came into contact with the metal conduit, a sudden unexpected stop of his left arm might cause an inadvertent shot. Keep in mind that he probably had no way to practice these shots in the sniper’s nest beforehand.

There was only one person who knew the answers to the questions we are discussing. Sadly Jack Ruby’s actions silenced that person forever. So we will never know the answers with any certainty. It is all speculation. But we will continue to speculate based on what we are able to determine from the evidence we have.

[Tom Mahon]

I am ~5’-9” and the seated position provides a comfortable position for the Z224 & Z313 shots.

I don't know how tall Secret Service agent John Howlett was, but the 11/27/63 reenactment photo shows him sitting on your beloved box (apparently in its correct position) and assuming a shooting position similar to what the "Oswald" actor does in "The Lost Bullet" for the 2nd and 3rd shots, so I guess it's plausible that 5' 9" Oswald fired those shots while sitting on it with one bun on and one bun off, just like Howlett was doing as he was pretending to shoot.

More importantly, given the fact that we now know that Oswald fired his first, missing-everything, shot at hypothetical "Z-124," (half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133) and we know that the window was only about 1/3 open (going from memory here), that Oswald had to stand and awkwardly lean forward while firing the steeply-downward-angled shot, and that this is corroborated by the fact that in a digitally enhanced clip from the Robert Hughes film which is embedded in "The Lost Bullet," we can see something light-colored (LHO's t-shirt?) moving in the window about five seconds before the first shot rang (or banged, boomed, or popped?) out.

[Royell Storing]

  So now we have people wanting to stamp as fact that the 1st shot missed? Not only do we Not even have a remnant of that bullet, we have no solid image evidence of it striking anything either. This is why guys like Holland putting out baloney like this need to be run up-and-down the flagpole right outta the gate. Over time, people repeat this stuff until it is generally accepted as being fact. And a shooter from a standing position firing Down through a half open window is further baloney. What proof is there of that? None!

[Tom Mahon]

  So now we have people wanting to stamp as fact that the 1st shot missed? Not only do we Not even have a remnant of that bullet, we have no solid image evidence of it striking anything either. This is why guys like Holland putting out baloney like this need to be run up-and-down the flagpole right outta the gate. Over time, people repeat this stuff until it is generally accepted as being fact. And a shooter from a standing position firing Down through a half open window is further baloney. What proof is there of that? None!

I've already mentioned in this thread some of the circumstantial evidence suggesting that the first shot was fired at hypothetical "Z-124," i.e., half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133. For example, have you read the 22-page article titled "Estimating Occult Timing of Surprise Gunshot Sounds in Silent Film via Observed Start of Human Voluntary Reactions of Concern"? You can read it for free by googling "estimating occult timing".

In "Cold Case JFK," it was shown that that kind of bullet doesn't produce recoverable fragments but disintegrates when fired at a sharp angle into asphalt.

Do you think Oswald was innocent?

If so, how many bad guys do you figure were involved in the planning, the "patsy-ing," the shooting, and the cover up?